Playoff Picture Entering Week 11 2024

• Standings Entering Week 11
• Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 11
  • NFC
  • AFC
• Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 11
  • NFC
  • AFC
• Seed Control Entering Week 11
• Contact Us

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Standings Entering Week 11

• Conference Standings
• Division Standings

	NFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	DET	8-1	6-1
2	PHI	7-2	4-2
3	ATL	6-4	6-2	ATL wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (6-2 vs 3-3).
4	ARI	6-4	3-3
5	MIN	7-2	3-2
6	WAS	7-3	5-1
7	GB	6-3	2-3
8	SF	5-4	3-3
9	CHI	4-5	2-2	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). CHI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head.
10	LAR	4-5	3-4	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
11	SEA	4-5	1-4
12	TB	4-6	4-3
13	DAL	3-6	1-5
14	NO	3-7	3-4	NO wins the tiebreak over CAR on Division Record (2-3 vs 1-2).
15	CAR	3-7	2-4
16	NYG	2-8	1-6
	AFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	KC	9-0	5-0
2	BUF	8-2	6-2
3	PIT	7-2	4-1
4	HOU	6-4	5-1
5	BAL	7-3	4-3
6	LAC	6-3	4-2
7	DEN	5-5	2-4
8	IND	4-6	3-4	IND wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (3-4 vs 2-4).
9	CIN	4-6	2-4
10	MIA	3-6	2-4
11	NYJ	3-7	3-4	NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3).
12	NE	3-7	2-5
13	CLE	2-7	2-3	CLE wins the tiebreak over TEN/LV on Conference Record (2-3 vs 2-4/2-5).
14	TEN	2-7	2-4	TEN wins the tiebreak over LV on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-5).
15	LV	2-7	2-5
16	JAX	2-8	2-4

NFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PHI	7-2	2-0
2	WAS	7-3	2-0
3	DAL	3-6	1-1
4	NYG	2-8	0-4
NFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	DET	8-1	2-0
2	MIN	7-2	1-1
3	GB	6-3	0-2
4	CHI	4-5	0-0
NFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	ATL	6-4	4-1
2	TB	4-6	1-2
3	NO	3-7	2-3	NO wins the tiebreak over CAR on Division Record (2-3 vs 1-2).
4	CAR	3-7	1-2
NFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	ARI	6-4	2-0
2	SF	5-4	1-2
3	LAR	4-5	2-1	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4	SEA	4-5	0-2
AFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	BUF	8-2	3-0
2	MIA	3-6	1-2
3	NYJ	3-7	1-2	NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3).
4	NE	3-7	1-2
AFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PIT	7-2	0-0
2	BAL	7-3	2-1
3	CIN	4-6	1-2
4	CLE	2-7	1-1
AFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	HOU	6-4	3-0
2	IND	4-6	1-3
3	TEN	2-7	0-1
4	JAX	2-8	1-1
AFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	KC	9-0	3-0
2	LAC	6-3	2-1
3	DEN	5-5	1-2
4	LV	2-7	0-3

 

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Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 11

NFC

NYG is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

1)

DET win + MIN win

 

AFC

LV is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	LV loss + KC win/tie
OR	2)	LV loss + NE loss/tie
OR	3)	LV tie + KC win

 

LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:

	1)	LV loss + KC win/tie
OR	2)	LV tie + KC win

 

NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	NE loss + KC win/tie
OR	2)	NE tie + KC win

 

NYJ is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	NYJ loss + KC win/tie
OR	2)	NYJ tie + KC win

 

CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	CLE loss + KC win/tie
OR	2)	CLE tie + KC win

 

JAX is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	JAX loss/tie
OR	2)	KC win/tie

 

TEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	TEN loss + KC win/tie
OR	2)	TEN tie + KC win

 

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Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 11

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
DET	53%	14%	2%	<1%	19%	7%	3%	1%
PHI	15%	34%	8%	2%	9%	15%	10%	7%
ATL	2%	9%	29%	51%	<1%	<1%	<1%	9%
ARI	1%	5%	27%	20%	1%	2%	6%	38%
MIN	15%	7%	1%	<1%	38%	19%	11%	8%
WAS	10%	24%	6%	1%	13%	21%	15%	10%
GB	3%	3%	<1%	<1%	16%	23%	25%	29%
SF	1%	3%	14%	9%	1%	4%	9%	59%
CHI	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	4%	8%	85%
LAR	<1%	1%	4%	5%	<1%	1%	4%	85%
SEA	<1%	<1%	6%	4%	<1%	1%	4%	85%
TB	<1%	<1%	1%	5%	<1%	1%	3%	90%
DAL	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	2%	98%
NO	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	98%
CAR	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	98%
NYG	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
KC	70%	18%	7%	1%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
BUF	16%	34%	39%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
PIT	10%	24%	21%	4%	23%	13%	3%	2%
HOU	1%	5%	14%	71%	<1%	1%	2%	7%
BAL	2%	18%	17%	4%	25%	25%	6%	3%
LAC	2%	2%	1%	<1%	41%	32%	13%	9%
DEN	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	5%	14%	30%	50%
IND	<1%	<1%	<1%	7%	1%	4%	12%	77%
CIN	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	5%	12%	81%
MIA	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	8%	90%
NYJ	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	3%	96%
NE	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	3%	96%
CLE	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	97%
TEN	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	1%	96%
LV	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	98%
JAX	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	99%

 

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Seed Control Entering Week 11

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI WAS BUF PIT

Teams that control the 3 seed:
ATL BAL

Teams that control the 4 seed:
ARI SF SEA HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN GB(6) LAC

Teams that control the 6 seed:
None!

Teams that control the 7 seed:
CHI(6) DEN(6)

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL NYG TB NO CAR LAR(4)
MIA NYJ NE CIN(7) CLE IND(7) TEN JAX LV

 

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