Standings Entering Week 14

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DET 11-1 7-1  
2 PHI 10-2 6-2  
3 SEA 7-5 3-4  
4 ATL 6-6 6-2 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (2-0).
5 MIN 10-2 5-2  
6 GB 9-3 4-3  
7 WAS 8-5 5-3  
8 TB 6-6 6-3 ARI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head (1-0). TB wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (6-3 vs 3-5).
9 ARI 6-6 3-5 ARI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head (1-0).
10 LAR 6-6 4-5  
11 SF 5-7 3-5 SF wins the tiebreak over DAL on Head-to-Head.
12 DAL 5-7 3-5  
13 NO 4-8 3-5 NO wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (3-5 vs 2-5).
14 CHIk 4-8 2-5  
15 CAR 3-9 2-5  
16 NYGke 2-10 1-8  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCx 11-1 6-1  
2 BUFxy 10-2 7-2  
3 PIT 9-3 6-2  
4 HOU 8-5 6-2  
5 LAC 8-4 5-3  
6 BAL 8-5 5-4 BAL wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head.
7 DEN 8-5 4-4  
8 IND 6-7 5-4  
9 MIAk 5-7 4-4  
10 CINk 4-8 2-6  
11 CLEk 3-9 3-4 NYJ drops out of the tiebreak with CLE/TEN on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-4). CLE wins the tiebreak over TEN on Strength of Victory (19-18 vs 16-22).
12 NYJk 3-9 3-5 NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head.
13 TEN 3-9 3-4  
14 NEke 3-10 2-7  
15 JAXke 2-10 2-5 JAX wins the tiebreak over LV on Conference Record (2-5 vs 2-8).
16 LVke 2-10 2-8  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 10-2 3-0  
2 WAS 8-5 2-2  
3 DAL 5-7 3-1  
4 NYGke 2-10 0-5  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DET 11-1 3-0  
2 MIN 10-2 2-1  
3 GB 9-3 1-2  
4 CHIk 4-8 0-3  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 ATL 6-6 4-1 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (2-0).
2 TB 6-6 2-2  
3 NO 4-8 2-3  
4 CAR 3-9 1-3  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SEA 7-5 2-2  
2 ARI 6-6 2-1 ARI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 LAR 6-6 2-1  
4 SF 5-7 1-3  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUFxy 10-2 3-0  
2 MIAk 5-7 2-2  
3 NYJk 3-9 1-2  
4 NEke 3-10 1-3  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 9-3 2-1  
2 BAL 8-5 2-2  
3 CINk 4-8 1-3  
4 CLEk 3-9 2-1  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 HOU 8-5 4-1  
2 IND 6-7 1-3  
3 TEN 3-9 1-1  
4 JAXke 2-10 1-2  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCx 11-1 4-0  
2 LAC 8-4 2-1  
3 DEN 8-5 2-2  
4 LVke 2-10 0-5  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 

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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 14

NFC

PHI clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) PHI win + ATL loss/tie + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win + ATL loss/tie + ARI loss + DET win/tie
OR 3) PHI win + ATL loss/tie + ARI tie
OR 4) PHI win + TB loss/tie + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie
OR 5) PHI win + TB loss/tie + ARI loss + DET win/tie
OR 6) PHI win + TB loss/tie + ARI tie
OR 7) PHI tie + ATL loss + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie
OR 8) PHI tie + ATL loss + ARI tie
OR 9) PHI tie + TB loss + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie
OR 10) PHI tie + TB loss + ARI tie

 

DET clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) DET win/tie
OR 2) ATL loss/tie + LAR loss/tie + PHI win
OR 3) ATL loss/tie + SEA loss + PHI win
OR 4) ATL loss/tie + ARI tie
OR 5) ATL loss/tie + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie
OR 6) ATL loss + ARI loss + PHI win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, CHI, PIT, TEN)
OR 7) ATL loss + ARI loss + PHI win + DAL win + CHI win + 1 combined wins from (PIT, TEN)
OR 8) ATL tie + ARI loss + PHI win + DAL win + CHI win + PIT win + TEN win
OR 9) TB loss/tie + LAR loss/tie + PHI win
OR 10) TB loss/tie + SEA loss + PHI win
OR 11) TB loss/tie + ARI tie
OR 12) TB loss/tie + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie

The portions of italics are for DET clinching at least a tie in Strength of Victory over PHI

 

MIN clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) MIN win + ARI tie
OR 2) MIN win + ARI loss + LAR loss/tie
OR 3) MIN tie + TB loss + LAR loss + ARI loss
OR 4) MIN tie + TB loss + LAR loss + ARI tie + PHI win/tie

 

AFC

KC clinches the AFC West division title with:
         1) KC win

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 14

NFC

CAR is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) CAR loss + ATL win

 

DAL is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) DAL loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win/tie

 

ATL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) ATL loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie

 

TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) TB loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie
OR 3) MIN win/tie

 

SEA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) SEA loss + DET win/tie
OR 2) SEA loss + MIN win/tie
OR 3) SEA tie + DET win
OR 4) SEA tie + DET tie + MIN win

 

ARI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) ARI loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie
OR 3) MIN win/tie
OR 4) PHI win + CHI win
OR 5) PHI win + CHI tie + 1 or more combined wins from (DAL, BUF, KC)
OR 6) PHI win + 2 or more combined wins from (DAL, BUF, KC)
OR 7) PHI tie + CHI win + 1 or more combined wins from (DAL, BUF, KC)
OR 8) PHI tie + CHI tie + DAL win + 1 or more combined wins from (BUF, KC)
OR 9) PHI tie + CHI tie + DAL tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (BUF, KC)
OR 10) PHI tie + CHI tie + BUF win + KC win + 0.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, TEN)
OR 11) PHI tie + DAL win + BUF win + KC win
OR 12) CHI win + 2 or more combined wins from (DAL, BUF, KC)
OR 13) CHI tie + DAL win + BUF win + KC win

The portions of italics are for DET clinching Strength of Victory over ARI or clinching a tie in Strength of Victory over ARI while clinching Strength of Victory over PHI

 

AFC

NYJ is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NYJ loss/tie

 

CLE is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CLE loss/tie

 

TEN is eliminated from AFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) TEN loss/tie

 

LAC is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) LAC loss

 

DEN is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) KC win

 

LAC is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) LAC loss

 

DEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) KC win

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 14

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DET 66% 10% <1% <1% 20% 3% <1% <1%
PHI 16% 80% 1% <1% <1% 1% 2% <1%
SEA <1% 1% 48% 9% <1% <1% 3% 40%
ATL <1% <1% 12% 45% <1% <1% 1% 42%
MIN 16% 5% <1%   57% 20% 2% <1%
GB 2% 1% <1%   21% 60% 14% 1%
WAS <1% 4% <1% <1% 1% 14% 66% 15%
TB <1% <1% 13% 28% <1% <1% 3% 55%
ARI <1% <1% 12% 7% <1% <1% 2% 78%
LAR   <1% 13% 8% <1% <1% 2% 77%
SF   <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 1% 97%
DAL   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 97%
NO     <1% 1%   <1% <1% 98%
CHI           <1% <1% >99%
CAR     <1% <1%     <1% >99%
NYG               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
KC 68% 24% 6% <1% 2% <1% <1%  
BUF 25% 52% 21% 2%        
PIT 7% 20% 50% 9% 6% 6% 2% <1%
HOU <1% 2% 13% 83% <1% <1% <1% 2%
LAC <1% 1% <1% <1% 49% 26% 20% 3%
BAL <1% 2% 10% 3% 20% 34% 25% 6%
DEN <1% <1% <1% <1% 23% 30% 38% 9%
IND   <1% <1% 2% <1% 3% 10% 85%
MIA         <1% 1% 4% 95%
CIN         <1% <1% <1% >99%
CLE           <1% <1% >99%
NYJ           <1% <1% >99%
TEN       <1%   <1% <1% >99%
NE               100%
JAX               100%
LV               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 14

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI BUF

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PIT SEA(4)

Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL ARI LAR HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN GB LAC(6)

Teams that control the 6 seed:
BAL

Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS TB(E) DEN

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL NYG CHI NO CAR SF
MIA NYJ NE CIN CLE IND TEN JAX LV

 

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