Playoff Picture Entering Week 12 2024
Standings Entering Week 12
NFC | Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
1 | DET | 9-1 | 6-1 | |
2 | PHI | 8-2 | 5-2 | |
3 | ARI | 6-4 | 3-3 | |
4 | ATL | 6-5 | 6-2 | |
5 | MIN | 8-2 | 3-2 | |
6 | GB | 7-3 | 3-3 | |
7 | WAS | 7-4 | 5-2 | |
8 | LAR | 5-5 | 3-4 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA/SF on Head-to-Head (2-0 vs 1-2/1-2). |
9 | SEA | 5-5 | 2-4 | SEA wins the tiebreak over SF on Division Record (1-2 vs 1-3). |
10 | SF | 5-5 | 3-4 | |
11 | TB | 4-6 | 4-3 | TB wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (4-3 vs 2-3). |
12 | CHI | 4-6 | 2-3 | |
13 | NO | 4-7 | 3-4 | |
14 | CAR | 3-7 | 2-4 | CAR wins the tiebreak over DAL on Conference Record (2-4 vs 1-5). |
15 | DAL | 3-7 | 1-5 | |
16 | NYG | 2-8 | 1-6 | |
AFC | Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
1 | KC | 9-1 | 5-1 | |
2 | BUF | 9-2 | 7-2 | |
3 | PIT | 8-2 | 5-1 | |
4 | HOU | 7-4 | 5-1 | |
5 | LAC | 7-3 | 5-2 | |
6 | BAL | 7-4 | 4-4 | |
7 | DEN | 6-5 | 2-4 | |
8 | IND | 5-6 | 4-4 | |
9 | MIA | 4-6 | 3-4 | |
10 | CIN | 4-7 | 2-5 | |
11 | NYJ | 3-8 | 3-5 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3). |
12 | NE | 3-8 | 2-5 | |
13 | CLE | 2-8 | 2-3 | CLE wins the tiebreak over TEN/LV on Conference Record (2-3 vs 2-4/2-6). |
14 | TEN | 2-8 | 2-4 | TEN wins the tiebreak over LV on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-6). |
15 | LV | 2-8 | 2-6 | |
16 | JAX | 2-9 | 2-4 |
NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | PHI | 8-2 | 3-0 | |
2 | WAS | 7-4 | 2-1 | |
3 | DAL | 3-7 | 1-1 | |
4 | NYG | 2-8 | 0-4 | |
NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | DET | 9-1 | 2-0 | |
2 | MIN | 8-2 | 1-1 | |
3 | GB | 7-3 | 1-2 | |
4 | CHI | 4-6 | 0-1 | |
NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | ATL | 6-5 | 4-1 | |
2 | TB | 4-6 | 1-2 | |
3 | NO | 4-7 | 2-3 | |
4 | CAR | 3-7 | 1-2 | |
NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | ARI | 6-4 | 2-0 | |
2 | LAR | 5-5 | 2-1 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA/SF on Head-to-Head (2-0 vs 1-2/1-2). |
3 | SEA | 5-5 | 1-2 | SEA wins the tiebreak over SF on Division Record (1-2 vs 1-3). |
4 | SF | 5-5 | 1-3 | |
AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | BUF | 9-2 | 3-0 | |
2 | MIA | 4-6 | 1-2 | |
3 | NYJ | 3-8 | 1-2 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3). |
4 | NE | 3-8 | 1-2 | |
AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | PIT | 8-2 | 1-0 | |
2 | BAL | 7-4 | 2-2 | |
3 | CIN | 4-7 | 1-2 | |
4 | CLE | 2-8 | 1-1 | |
AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | HOU | 7-4 | 3-0 | |
2 | IND | 5-6 | 1-3 | |
3 | TEN | 2-8 | 0-1 | |
4 | JAX | 2-9 | 1-1 | |
AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | KC | 9-1 | 3-0 | |
2 | LAC | 7-3 | 2-1 | |
3 | DEN | 6-5 | 1-2 | |
4 | LV | 2-8 | 0-3 |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 12
NFC
NYG is knocked out of NFC East title contention with: |
1) | NYG loss | |
OR | 2) | NYG tie + WAS win/tie |
OR | 3) | NYG tie + PHI tie |
OR | 4) | PHI win |
OR | 5) | PHI tie + WAS win |
DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | DAL loss | |
OR | 2) | DAL tie + DET win |
OR | 3) | DAL tie + DET tie + MIN win |
OR | 4) | DAL tie + MIN win + GB win/tie |
OR | 5) | DAL tie + MIN tie + GB win |
CAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | CAR loss + DET win/tie | |
OR | 2) | CAR loss + MIN win/tie |
OR | 3) | CAR loss + GB win/tie |
OR | 4) | CAR tie + DET win |
OR | 5) | CAR tie + DET tie + MIN win |
OR | 6) | CAR tie + DET tie + MIN tie + GB win |
OR | 7) | CAR tie + MIN win + GB win |
AFC
NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | NE loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | KC win/tie |
OR | 3) | PIT win/tie |
OR | 4) | HOU win + BAL win/tie |
OR | 5) | HOU win + DEN win |
OR | 6) | HOU tie + BAL win |
NE is knocked out of AFC East title contention with: |
1) | NE loss/tie |
NYJ is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | KC win/tie | |
OR | 2) | PIT win/tie |
OR | 3) | HOU win + BAL win/tie |
OR | 4) | HOU tie + BAL win |
CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | CLE loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | KC win/tie |
OR | 3) | HOU win + BAL win/tie |
OR | 4) | HOU tie + BAL win |
CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with: |
1) | CLE loss | |
OR | 2) | CLE tie + BAL win |
TEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | TEN loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | KC win/tie |
OR | 3) | PIT win/tie |
TEN is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
1) | TEN loss |
LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with: |
1) | LV loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | KC win/tie |
OR | 3) | LAC win |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 12
Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | 60% | 11% | <1% | <1% | 21% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
PHI | 17% | 57% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 2% |
ARI | <1% | 5% | 35% | 13% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 40% |
ATL | <1% | 3% | 21% | 58% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 17% |
MIN | 17% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 47% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
GB | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 21% | 35% | 24% | 14% |
WAS | 2% | 12% | 2% | <1% | 8% | 26% | 31% | 18% |
LAR | <1% | 1% | 10% | 5% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 77% |
SEA | <1% | 1% | 13% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 76% |
SF | <1% | 1% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 79% |
TB | <1% | <1% | 2% | 9% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 87% |
CHI | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 96% |
NO | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 95% |
CAR | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 97% |
DAL | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 99% |
NYG | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC | 46% | 26% | 14% | 2% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
BUF | 30% | 36% | 26% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
PIT | 18% | 24% | 31% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
HOU | 2% | 6% | 16% | 71% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
LAC | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 50% | 25% | 11% | 4% |
BAL | 1% | 4% | 9% | 3% | 23% | 37% | 16% | 7% |
DEN | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 7% | 19% | 36% | 38% |
IND | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 18% | 69% |
MIA | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 86% |
CIN | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 95% |
NYJ | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
NE | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 99% |
CLE | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
TEN | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
LV | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | |
JAX | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
Seed Control Entering Week 12
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET
PIT(2)
KC
Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI
BUF
Teams that control the 3 seed:
ARI(4)
Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL(3)
SEA
HOU
Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN
GB
LAC
Teams that control the 6 seed:
BAL(3)
Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS(2)
DEN
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
NYG
CHI(7)
TB
NO
CAR
LAR
SF(4)
MIA
NYJ
NE
CIN
CLE
IND
TEN
JAX
LV
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