NFL Playoff Scenarios

Playoff Picture Entering Week 12 2024

Nov 18, 2024 | Week 12, 2024 | NFL Playoff Scenarios

Standings Entering Week 12
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 12
- NFC
- AFC
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 12
- NFC
- AFC
Seed Control Entering Week 12
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	NFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	DET	9-1	6-1
2	PHI	8-2	5-2
3	ARI	6-4	3-3
4	ATL	6-5	6-2
5	MIN	8-2	3-2
6	GB	7-3	3-3
7	WAS	7-4	5-2
8	LAR	5-5	3-4	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA/SF on Head-to-Head (2-0 vs 1-2/1-2).
9	SEA	5-5	2-4	SEA wins the tiebreak over SF on Division Record (1-2 vs 1-3).
10	SF	5-5	3-4
11	TB	4-6	4-3	TB wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (4-3 vs 2-3).
12	CHI	4-6	2-3
13	NO	4-7	3-4
14	CAR	3-7	2-4	CAR wins the tiebreak over DAL on Conference Record (2-4 vs 1-5).
15	DAL	3-7	1-5
16	NYG	2-8	1-6

	AFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	KC	9-1	5-1
2	BUF	9-2	7-2
3	PIT	8-2	5-1
4	HOU	7-4	5-1
5	LAC	7-3	5-2
6	BAL	7-4	4-4
7	DEN	6-5	2-4
8	IND	5-6	4-4
9	MIA	4-6	3-4
10	CIN	4-7	2-5
11	NYJ	3-8	3-5	NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3).
12	NE	3-8	2-5
13	CLE	2-8	2-3	CLE wins the tiebreak over TEN/LV on Conference Record (2-3 vs 2-4/2-6).
14	TEN	2-8	2-4	TEN wins the tiebreak over LV on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-6).
15	LV	2-8	2-6
16	JAX	2-9	2-4


NFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PHI	8-2	3-0
2	WAS	7-4	2-1
3	DAL	3-7	1-1
4	NYG	2-8	0-4

NFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	DET	9-1	2-0
2	MIN	8-2	1-1
3	GB	7-3	1-2
4	CHI	4-6	0-1

NFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	ATL	6-5	4-1
2	TB	4-6	1-2
3	NO	4-7	2-3
4	CAR	3-7	1-2

NFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	ARI	6-4	2-0
2	LAR	5-5	2-1	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA/SF on Head-to-Head (2-0 vs 1-2/1-2).
3	SEA	5-5	1-2	SEA wins the tiebreak over SF on Division Record (1-2 vs 1-3).
4	SF	5-5	1-3

AFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	BUF	9-2	3-0
2	MIA	4-6	1-2
3	NYJ	3-8	1-2	NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3).
4	NE	3-8	1-2

AFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PIT	8-2	1-0
2	BAL	7-4	2-2
3	CIN	4-7	1-2
4	CLE	2-8	1-1

AFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	HOU	7-4	3-0
2	IND	5-6	1-3
3	TEN	2-8	0-1
4	JAX	2-9	1-1

AFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	KC	9-1	3-0
2	LAC	7-3	2-1
3	DEN	6-5	1-2
4	LV	2-8	0-3

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 12

NFC

NYG is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:

	1)	NYG loss
OR	2)	NYG tie + WAS win/tie
OR	3)	NYG tie + PHI tie
OR	4)	PHI win
OR	5)	PHI tie + WAS win

DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	DAL loss
OR	2)	DAL tie + DET win
OR	3)	DAL tie + DET tie + MIN win
OR	4)	DAL tie + MIN win + GB win/tie
OR	5)	DAL tie + MIN tie + GB win

CAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	CAR loss + DET win/tie
OR	2)	CAR loss + MIN win/tie
OR	3)	CAR loss + GB win/tie
OR	4)	CAR tie + DET win
OR	5)	CAR tie + DET tie + MIN win
OR	6)	CAR tie + DET tie + MIN tie + GB win
OR	7)	CAR tie + MIN win + GB win

AFC

NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	NE loss/tie
OR	2)	KC win/tie
OR	3)	PIT win/tie
OR	4)	HOU win + BAL win/tie
OR	5)	HOU win + DEN win
OR	6)	HOU tie + BAL win

NE is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:

NE loss/tie

NYJ is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	KC win/tie
OR	2)	PIT win/tie
OR	3)	HOU win + BAL win/tie
OR	4)	HOU tie + BAL win

CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	CLE loss/tie
OR	2)	KC win/tie
OR	3)	HOU win + BAL win/tie
OR	4)	HOU tie + BAL win

CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:

	1)	CLE loss
OR	2)	CLE tie + BAL win

TEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	TEN loss/tie
OR	2)	KC win/tie
OR	3)	PIT win/tie

TEN is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:

TEN loss

LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:

	1)	LV loss/tie
OR	2)	KC win/tie
OR	3)	LAC win

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 12

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
DET	60%	11%	<1%	<1%	21%	6%	2%	<1%
PHI	17%	57%	8%	1%	3%	6%	5%	2%
ARI	<1%	5%	35%	13%	<1%	1%	5%	40%
ATL	<1%	3%	21%	58%	<1%	<1%	<1%	17%
MIN	17%	6%	<1%	<1%	47%	20%	8%	3%
GB	4%	2%	<1%	<1%	21%	35%	24%	14%
WAS	2%	12%	2%	<1%	8%	26%	31%	18%
LAR	<1%	1%	10%	5%	<1%	1%	5%	77%
SEA	<1%	1%	13%	3%	<1%	1%	5%	76%
SF	<1%	1%	8%	3%	<1%	2%	6%	79%
TB	<1%	<1%	2%	9%	<1%	<1%	2%	87%
CHI	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	3%	96%
NO	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	1%	95%
CAR	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%	97%
DAL	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	99%
NYG		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
KC	46%	26%	14%	2%	10%	1%	<1%	<1%
BUF	30%	36%	26%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
PIT	18%	24%	31%	10%	8%	7%	2%	<1%
HOU	2%	6%	16%	71%	<1%	1%	2%	3%
LAC	3%	4%	3%	1%	50%	25%	11%	4%
BAL	1%	4%	9%	3%	23%	37%	16%	7%
DEN	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	7%	19%	36%	38%
IND	<1%	<1%	<1%	5%	1%	7%	18%	69%
MIA	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	4%	10%	86%
CIN	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	4%	95%
NYJ	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
NE	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	99%
CLE	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	99%
TEN	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	99%
LV		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
JAX			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%

Seed Control Entering Week 12

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET DET PIT PIT(2) KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI PHI BUF BUF

Teams that control the 3 seed:
ARI ARI(4)

Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL ATL(3) SEA SEA HOU HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN MIN GB LAC LAC

Teams that control the 6 seed:
BAL BAL(3)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS WAS(2) DEN DEN

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL DAL NYG NYG CHI CHI(7) TB NO CAR CAR LAR LAR SF(4)
MIA MIA NYJ NYJ NE CIN CIN CLE CLE IND IND TEN TEN JAX JAX LV

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