Playoff Picture Entering Week 15 2024
Standings Entering Week 15
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 DETx |
12-1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 |
 PHIx |
11-2 | 7-2 | |
| 3 |
 SEA |
8-5 | 4-4 | |
| 4 |
 TB |
7-6 | 6-3 | |
| 5 |
 MIN |
11-2 | 6-2 | |
| 6 |
 GB |
9-4 | 4-4 | |
| 7 |
 WAS |
8-5 | 5-3 | |
| 8 |
 LAR |
7-6 | 4-5 | |
| 9 |
 ATL |
6-7 | 6-3 | ARI wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (6-3 vs 3-6). |
| 10 |
 ARI |
6-7 | 3-6 | ARI wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 11 |
 SF |
6-7 | 4-5 | |
| 12 |
 NO |
5-8 | 4-5 | NO wins the tiebreak over DAL on Head-to-Head. |
| 13 |
 DALk |
5-8 | 3-5 | |
| 14 |
 CHIk |
4-9 | 2-6 | |
| 15 |
 CAR |
3-10 | 2-6 | |
| 16 |
 NYGke |
2-11 | 1-9 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 KCxy |
12-1 | 7-1 | |
| 2 |
 BUFxy |
10-3 | 7-2 | BUF wins the tiebreak over PIT on Strength of Victory (59-71 vs 53-77). |
| 3 |
 PIT |
10-3 | 7-2 | |
| 4 |
 HOU |
8-5 | 6-2 | |
| 5 |
 BAL |
8-5 | 5-4 | LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). BAL wins the tiebreak over LAC on Head-to-Head. |
| 6 |
 LACk |
8-5 | 5-4 | LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 7 |
 DENk |
8-5 | 4-4 | |
| 8 |
 IND |
6-7 | 5-4 | IND wins the tiebreak over MIA on Head-to-Head. |
| 9 |
 MIAk |
6-7 | 5-4 | |
| 10 |
 CINk |
5-8 | 2-6 | |
| 11 |
 CLEke |
3-10 | 3-5 | JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-4 vs 0-7). NYJ drops out of the tiebreak with CLE/JAX on Conference Record (3-6 vs 3-5). CLE wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head. |
| 12 |
 JAXke |
3-10 | 3-5 | JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-4 vs 0-7). JAX wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-6). |
| 13 |
 NYJke |
3-10 | 3-6 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-4 vs 0-7). NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head. |
| 14 |
 TENke |
3-10 | 3-5 | TEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Head-to-Head. |
| 15 |
 NEke |
3-10 | 2-7 | |
| 16 |
 LVke |
2-11 | 2-8 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PHIx |
11-2 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
WAS |
8-5 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
DALk |
5-8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 |
NYGke |
2-11 | 0-5 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DETx |
12-1 | 4-0 | |
| 2 |
MIN |
11-2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
GB |
9-4 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
CHIk |
4-9 | 0-3 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
TB |
7-6 | 2-2 | |
| 2 |
ATL |
6-7 | 4-1 | |
| 3 |
NO |
5-8 | 2-3 | |
| 4 |
CAR |
3-10 | 1-3 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
SEA |
8-5 | 3-2 | |
| 2 |
LAR |
7-6 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
ARI |
6-7 | 2-2 | ARI wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 4 |
SF |
6-7 | 1-3 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
BUFxy |
10-3 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
MIAk |
6-7 | 3-2 | |
| 3 |
NYJke |
3-10 | 1-3 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-4 vs 0-7). |
| 4 |
NEke |
3-10 | 1-3 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PIT |
10-3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
BAL |
8-5 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
CINk |
5-8 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
CLEke |
3-10 | 2-2 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
HOU |
8-5 | 4-1 | |
| 2 |
IND |
6-7 | 1-3 | |
| 3 |
JAXke |
3-10 | 2-2 | JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 4 |
TENke |
3-10 | 1-2 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
KCxy |
12-1 | 5-0 | |
| 2 |
LACk |
8-5 | 2-2 | LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 3 |
DENk |
8-5 | 2-2 | |
| 4 |
LVke |
2-11 | 0-5 |
x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 15
NFC
|
PHI clinches the NFC East division title with: |
| 1) |
PHI win +
WAS loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
PHI tie +
WAS loss |
|
MIN clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
MIN win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
SEA loss/tie |
|
GB clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
GB win +
LAR/
SF tie +
ATL loss/tie |
AFC
|
HOU clinches the AFC South division title with: |
| 1) |
HOU win +
IND loss |
|
PIT clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
PIT win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
IND loss/tie +
MIA loss/tie |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 15
NFC
|
CAR is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
CAR loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
TB win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
ATL win |
|
DAL is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
DAL loss +
WAS win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DAL tie +
WAS win |
|
CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
CHI loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
WAS win/tie |
|
WAS is knocked out of NFC East title contention with: |
| 1) |
WAS loss +
PHI win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
WAS tie +
PHI win |
|
GB is knocked out of NFC North title contention with: |
| 1) |
GB loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
GB tie +
MIN win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
GB tie +
DET tie |
| OR | 4) |
DET win |
| OR | 5) |
DET tie +
MIN win |
|
SF is knocked out of NFC West title contention with: |
| 1) |
SF loss +
SEA win/tie |
|
SEA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
SEA loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DET win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
MIN win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
PHI win/tie |
|
WAS is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
WAS loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DET win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
MIN win/tie |
|
GB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
GB loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
GB tie +
MIN win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
GB tie +
DET tie |
| OR | 4) |
DET win |
| OR | 5) |
DET tie +
MIN win |
AFC
|
CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
CIN loss +
DEN win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
CIN tie +
BAL win/tie +
LAC win/tie +
DEN win |
|
IND is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
| 1) |
IND loss +
HOU win |
|
BAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
BAL loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
KC win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
BUF loss/tie |
|
HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
HOU loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
KC win/tie |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 15
Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DET |
74% | 9% | 18% | <1% | <1% | |||
|
PHI |
12% | 86% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | |
|
SEA |
<1% | <1% | 59% | 11% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 24% |
|
TB |
<1% | 18% | 53% | <1% | 2% | 27% | ||
|
MIN |
14% | 3% | 75% | 7% | <1% | <1% | ||
|
GB |
<1% | <1% | 7% | 67% | 24% | 2% | ||
|
WAS |
<1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 24% | 58% | 16% |
|
LAR |
18% | 8% | <1% | 5% | 69% | |||
|
ATL |
1% | 23% | <1% | 1% | 74% | |||
|
ARI |
1% | 1% | <1% | 1% | 97% | |||
|
SF |
1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 96% | |||
|
NO |
<1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 96% | |||
|
DAL |
<1% | <1% | >99% | |||||
|
CHI |
<1% | >99% | ||||||
|
CAR |
<1% | >99% | ||||||
|
NYG |
100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
KC |
87% | 10% | 2% | <1% | ||||
|
BUF |
5% | 46% | 43% | 5% | ||||
|
PIT |
8% | 40% | 41% | 4% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
|
HOU |
<1% | 2% | 9% | 87% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% |
|
BAL |
<1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 34% | 33% | 19% | 7% |
|
LAC |
32% | 30% | 29% | 9% | ||||
|
DEN |
29% | 29% | 31% | 11% | ||||
|
IND |
<1% | <1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 10% | 84% | |
|
MIA |
<1% | 3% | 9% | 87% | ||||
|
CIN |
<1% | <1% | 1% | 99% | ||||
|
CLE |
100% | |||||||
|
JAX |
100% | |||||||
|
NYJ |
100% | |||||||
|
TEN |
100% | |||||||
|
NE |
100% | |||||||
|
LV |
100% |
Seed Control Entering Week 15
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET
KC
Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI
Teams that control the 3 seed:
SEA
BUF(2)
PIT
Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB(7)
LAR
HOU
Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN
BAL(6)
Teams that control the 6 seed:
GB(5)
LAC(5)
DEN(7)
Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
CHI
ATL(4)
NO
CAR
ARI(4)
SF
MIA
CIN
IND
Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG
NYJ
NE
CLE
TEN
JAX
LV
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