Playoff Picture Entering Week 10 2026
Happy Scenario Season!!!
Standings Entering Week 10
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 SF |
7-1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 |
 CHI |
7-2 | 5-2 | |
| 3 |
 NYG |
5-2-1 | 3-2-1 | |
| 4 |
 CAR |
3-5 | 3-3 | CAR wins the tiebreak over NO on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1). |
| 5 |
 DET |
6-2 | 4-1 | DET wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 6 |
 MIN |
6-2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 |
 GB |
6-3 | 4-3 | |
| 8 |
 SEA |
5-4 | 2-3 | SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (2-1 vs 0-2). |
| 9 |
 LAR |
5-4 | 3-2 | |
| 10 |
 DAL |
4-5 | 2-4 | |
| 11 |
 NO |
3-5 | 1-3 | |
| 12 |
 TB |
3-6 | 3-3 | TB wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head (1-0). TB wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (3-3 vs 2-5). |
| 13 |
 ATL |
3-6 | 3-3 | ATL wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (3-3 vs 2-5). |
| 14 |
 ARI |
3-6 | 2-5 | |
| 15 |
 WAS |
2-5-1 | 2-4-1 | |
| 16 |
 PHI |
2-7 | 1-6 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 BUF |
7-1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 |
 DEN |
7-2 | 3-1 | |
| 3 |
 JAX |
6-2 | 5-2 | PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). JAX wins the tiebreak over PIT on Conference Record (5-2 vs 3-2). |
| 4 |
 PIT |
6-2 | 3-2 | PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 5 |
 KC |
6-2 | 6-1 | KC wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (6-1 vs 4-2). |
| 6 |
 CIN |
6-2 | 4-2 | |
| 7 |
 NE |
5-4 | 5-1 | NE wins the tiebreak over CLE on Conference Record (5-1 vs 3-3). |
| 8 |
 CLE |
5-4 | 3-3 | |
| 9 |
 LV |
4-5 | 3-3 | LV wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (3-3 vs 2-4). |
| 10 |
 BAL |
4-5 | 2-4 | |
| 11 |
 HOU |
3-5 | 3-3 | |
| 12 |
 NYJ |
2-7 | 2-4 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over IND on Conference Record (2-4 vs 1-5). |
| 13 |
 IND |
2-7 | 1-5 | |
| 14 |
 MIA |
1-7 | 1-4 | MIA wins the tiebreak over TEN on Conference Record (1-4 vs 1-5). |
| 15 |
 TEN |
1-7 | 1-5 | |
| 16 |
 LAC |
0-8 | 0-5 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
NYG |
5-2-1 | 2-0-1 | |
| 2 |
DAL |
4-5 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
WAS |
2-5-1 | 1-2-1 | |
| 4 |
PHI |
2-7 | 1-3 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
CHI |
7-2 | 0-2 | |
| 2 |
DET |
6-2 | 2-0 | DET wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 3 |
MIN |
6-2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 |
GB |
6-3 | 1-2 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
CAR |
3-5 | 1-1 | CAR wins the tiebreak over NO on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1). |
| 2 |
NO |
3-5 | 0-1 | |
| 3 |
TB |
3-6 | 2-0 | TB wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 4 |
ATL |
3-6 | 1-2 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
SF |
7-1 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
SEA |
5-4 | 2-1 | SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (2-1 vs 0-2). |
| 3 |
LAR |
5-4 | 0-2 | |
| 4 |
ARI |
3-6 | 1-3 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
BUF |
7-1 | 0-1 | |
| 2 |
NE |
5-4 | 3-0 | |
| 3 |
NYJ |
2-7 | 0-2 | |
| 4 |
MIA |
1-7 | 1-1 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PIT |
6-2 | 2-1 | PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 2 |
CIN |
6-2 | 1-1 | |
| 3 |
CLE |
5-4 | 2-1 | |
| 4 |
BAL |
4-5 | 0-2 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
JAX |
6-2 | 1-1 | |
| 2 |
HOU |
3-5 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
IND |
2-7 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
TEN |
1-7 | 1-1 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DEN |
7-2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 |
KC |
6-2 | 3-1 | |
| 3 |
LV |
4-5 | 1-1 | |
| 4 |
LAC |
0-8 | 0-3 |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 10
NFC
There are no Elimination Scenarios in the NFC for week 10
AFC
|
LAC is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC win +
NE tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC win +
MIA win |
| OR | 3) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC win/tie +
LV win |
| OR | 4) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC win +
LV tie +
CLE tie |
| OR | 5) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC win +
CLE win |
| OR | 6) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC tie +
NE tie +
LV tie +
CLE tie |
| OR | 7) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC tie +
NE tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 8) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC tie +
MIA win +
LV tie +
CLE tie |
| OR | 9) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC tie +
MIA win +
CLE win |
| OR | 10) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
KC tie +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 11) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
NE win |
| OR | 12) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
NE tie +
MIA win |
| OR | 13) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
NE tie +
LV win |
| OR | 14) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
NE tie +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 15) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
MIA win +
LV win |
| OR | 16) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
MIA win +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 17) |
LAC loss +
BUF win +
LV win +
CLE win/tie |
| OR | 18) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
NE win |
| OR | 19) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
NE tie +
LV win |
| OR | 20) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
NE tie +
LV tie +
CLE tie |
| OR | 21) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
NE tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 22) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
MIA win +
LV tie +
CLE tie |
| OR | 23) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
MIA win +
LV win |
| OR | 24) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
MIA win +
CLE win |
| OR | 25) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
LV win +
CLE win/tie |
| OR | 26) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC win +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 27) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC tie +
NE win +
LV tie +
CLE tie |
| OR | 28) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC tie +
NE win +
CLE win |
| OR | 29) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC tie +
NE tie +
LV win +
MIA win |
| OR | 30) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC tie +
NE tie +
LV win +
CLE tie |
| OR | 31) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC tie +
LV win +
CLE win |
| OR | 32) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC tie +
MIA win +
LV win +
CLE tie |
| OR | 33) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC tie +
MIA win +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 34) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
KC tie +
NE tie +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 35) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
NE win +
LV win |
| OR | 36) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
NE win +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 37) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
NE tie +
MIA win +
LV win +
CLE tie |
| OR | 38) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
NE tie +
LV win +
CLE win |
| OR | 39) |
LAC loss +
BUF tie +
MIA win +
LV win +
CLE win |
| OR | 40) |
LAC loss +
KC win +
NE win +
LV win |
| OR | 41) |
LAC loss +
KC win +
NE win +
LV tie +
CLE tie |
| OR | 42) |
LAC loss +
KC win +
NE win +
CLE win |
| OR | 43) |
LAC loss +
KC win +
NE tie +
LV win +
CLE win/tie |
| OR | 44) |
LAC loss +
KC win +
NE tie +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 45) |
LAC loss +
KC win +
MIA win +
LV win +
CLE win/tie |
| OR | 46) |
LAC loss +
KC win +
MIA win +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 47) |
LAC loss +
KC tie +
NE win +
LV win +
CLE tie |
| OR | 48) |
LAC loss +
KC tie +
NE win +
LV tie +
CLE win |
| OR | 49) |
LAC loss +
KC tie +
NE tie +
MIA win +
LV win +
CLE win |
| OR | 50) |
LAC loss +
NE win +
LV win +
CLE win |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 10
We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.
The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).
If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SF |
31% | 34% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 8% |
|
CHI |
20% | 10% | 1% | <1% | 23% | 19% | 13% | 14% |
|
NYG |
8% | 16% | 40% | 11% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 21% |
|
CAR |
<1% | 1% | 7% | 22% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 68% |
|
DET |
17% | 10% | 2% | <1% | 21% | 17% | 12% | 20% |
|
MIN |
15% | 9% | 2% | <1% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 21% |
|
GB |
7% | 6% | 1% | <1% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 33% |
|
SEA |
1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 13% | 63% |
|
LAR |
2% | 4% | 2% | <1% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 62% |
|
DAL |
<1% | 2% | 8% | 6% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 78% |
|
NO |
<1% | 1% | 7% | 21% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 70% |
|
TB |
<1% | <1% | 4% | 20% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 75% |
|
ATL |
<1% | <1% | 3% | 13% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 81% |
|
ARI |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 96% |
|
WAS |
<1% | <1% | 4% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 90% |
|
PHI |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BUF |
30% | 22% | 18% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
|
DEN |
19% | 15% | 12% | 6% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 11% |
|
JAX |
11% | 17% | 22% | 35% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
|
PIT |
11% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 19% |
|
KC |
15% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 13% |
|
CIN |
10% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 20% |
|
NE |
2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 42% |
|
CLE |
1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 12% | 15% | 53% |
|
LV |
<1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 76% |
|
BAL |
<1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 80% |
|
HOU |
<1% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 80% |
|
NYJ |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 98% |
|
IND |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 97% |
|
MIA |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 99% |
|
TEN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 98% |
|
LAC |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
Seed Control Entering Week 10
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
MIN
SF
BUF
Teams that control the 2 seed:
CHI
DET
Teams that control the 3 seed:
NYG
PIT
Teams that control the 4 seed:
CAR
NO
TB
CIN
JAX
Teams that control the 5 seed:
GB
DEN
KC
Teams that control the 6 seed:
None
Teams that control the 7 seed:
SEA
LAR
NE
CLE
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
PHI
WAS
ATL
ARI
NYJ
MIA
BAL
HOU
IND
TEN
LV
LAC
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