NOTE 1: The KC scenarios in this post separate the bye week from home-field advantage because if KC & BUF both have the same result, then a KC/BUF AFC Championship Game will be played at a neutral site, and if KC & BUF both lose and CIN wins, then a KC/CIN AFC Championship Game will be played at a neutral site.

NOTE 2: Though this post doesn’t have any items about homefield for CIN/BAL, if BAL beats CIN & LAC wins, a coin flip will determine where the CIN/BAL wildcard matchup is played.

Standings entering week 18

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIx 13-3 8-3  
2 SFxy 12-4 9-2 SF wins the tiebreak over MIN on Conference Record (9-2 vs 7-4).
3 MINxy 12-4 7-4  
4 TBxy 8-8 8-3  
5 DALx 12-4 8-3  
6 NYGkx 9-6-1 4-6-1  
7 SEAk 8-8 5-6 DET wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). SEA wins the tiebreak over DET on Head-to-Head.
8 DETk 8-8 6-5 DET wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
9 GBk 8-8 6-5  
10 WASke 7-8-1 4-6-1  
11 NOke 7-9 5-6  
12 CARke 6-10 5-6 CAR wins the tiebreak over ATL on Division Record (3-2 vs 1-4).
13 ATLke 6-10 5-6  
14 LARke 5-11 3-8  
15 ARIke 4-12 3-8  
16 CHIke 3-13 1-10  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 13-3 8-3  
2 BUFxy 12-3 8-2  
3 CINxy 11-4 7-3  
4 JAX 8-8 7-4  
5 LACkx 10-6 7-4 LAC wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (7-4 vs 6-5).
6 BALkx 10-6 6-5  
7 NEk 8-8 6-5 NE wins the tiebreak over MIA on Division Record (3-2 vs 2-3). NE wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
8 MIAk 8-8 6-5 MIA wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
9 PITk 8-8 4-7  
10 NYJke 7-9 5-6 CLE drops out of the tiebreak with NYJ/TEN on Conference Record (4-7 vs 5-6). NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Common Games (3-3 vs 2-3).
11 TEN 7-9 5-6 TEN wins the tiebreak over CLE on Conference Record (5-6 vs 4-7).
12 CLEke 7-9 4-7  
13 LVke 6-10 5-6  
14 INDke 4-11-1 4-6-1  
15 DENke 4-12 2-9  
16 HOUke 2-13-1 2-8-1  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIx 13-3 3-2  
2 DALx 12-4 4-1  
3 NYGkx 9-6-1 1-3-1  
4 WASke 7-8-1 1-3-1  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 MINxy 12-4 3-2  
2 DETk 8-8 4-1 DET wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 GBk 8-8 3-2  
4 CHIke 3-13 0-5  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TBxy 8-8 4-1  
2 NOke 7-9 2-3  
3 CARke 6-10 3-2 CAR wins the tiebreak over ATL on Division Record (3-2 vs 1-4).
4 ATLke 6-10 1-4  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SFxy 12-4 5-0  
2 SEAk 8-8 3-2  
3 LARke 5-11 1-4  
4 ARIke 4-12 1-4  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUFxy 12-3 3-2  
2 NEk 8-8 3-2 NE wins the tiebreak over MIA on Division Record (3-2 vs 2-3).
3 MIAk 8-8 2-3  
4 NYJke 7-9 2-3  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CINxy 11-4 2-3  
2 BALkx 10-6 3-2  
3 PITk 8-8 2-3  
4 CLEke 7-9 3-2  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAX 8-8 3-2  
2 TEN 7-9 3-2  
3 INDke 4-11-1 1-3-1  
4 HOUke 2-13-1 2-2-1  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 13-3 5-0  
2 LACkx 10-6 2-3  
3 LVke 6-10 3-2  
4 DENke 4-12 0-5  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

Standard-Style Clinching Scenarios

This is the standard style scenarios that just involve clinching a playoff berth/division without any concern for seed line. To see the correlated elimination scenarios, check out the elimination section under the seed-specific scenarios.

NFC

PHI clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) PHI win/tie
OR 2) DAL loss/tie

 

PHI clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) PHI win/tie
OR 2) DAL loss/tie + SF loss/tie

 

DAL clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) DAL win + PHI loss

 

DAL clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) DAL win + PHI loss + SF loss/tie

 

SF clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) SF win + PHI loss

 

 

SEA clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) SEA win + GB loss/tie
OR 2) SEA tie + DET tie + WAS loss/tie

 

DET clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) DET win + SEA loss/tie
OR 2) DET tie + SEA loss
OR 3) DET tie + SEA tie + WAS win

 

GB clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) GB win

 

AFC

KC clinches a first-round bye with:
         1) KC win
OR 2) KC tie + BUF tie
OR 3) BUF loss

 

KC clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) KC win + BUF loss/tie
OR 2) KC tie + BUF loss

 

BUF clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) BUF win + KC loss/tie
OR 2) BUF tie + KC loss

 

TEN clinches the AFC South division title with:
         1) TEN win

 

JAX clinches the AFC South division title with:
         1) JAX win/tie

 

 

JAX clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) MIA loss + NE loss + PIT loss

 

NE clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) NE win
OR 2) NE tie + MIA loss/tie + PIT loss/tie
OR 3) MIA loss + PIT loss + JAX win/tie

 

MIA clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) MIA win + NE loss/tie
OR 2) MIA tie + NE loss + PIT loss/tie

 

PIT clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) PIT win + MIA loss/tie + NE loss/tie
OR 2) PIT tie + MIA loss + NE loss

 

Seed Possibilities

      NFC
1 PHI SF DAL
2 SF PHI MIN DAL
3 MIN SF
4 TB
5 DAL PHI
6 NYG
7 SEA DET GB

      AFC
1 KC BUF
2 BUF KC CIN
3 CIN BUF
4 JAX TEN
5 LAC BAL
6 BAL LAC
7 NE MIA PIT JAX

 

NFC Scenarios by seed

See also: Ivan Urena’s tie-free NFC seeding chart or Jordan Anstey’s NFC chart with ties

1 seed

PHI obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) PHI win/tie
OR 2) DAL loss/tie + SF loss/tie

SF obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) SF win + PHI loss

DAL obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) DAL win + PHI loss + SF loss/tie

 

 

2 seed

SF obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) SF win + PHI win/tie
OR 2) SF tie + MIN loss/tie
OR 3) SF loss + MIN loss

PHI obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) PHI loss + DAL loss/tie + SF win

MIN obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) MIN win + SF loss/tie
OR 2) MIN tie + SF loss

DAL obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) DAL win + PHI loss + SF win

 

 

3 seed

MIN obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) MIN loss
OR 2) MIN tie + SF tie
OR 3) SF win

SF obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) SF loss + MIN win/tie
OR 2) SF tie + MIN win

 

4 seed

TB is locked into the 4 seed

 

 

5 seed

DAL obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) DAL loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win/tie

PHI obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) PHI loss + DAL win

 

6 seed

NYG is locked into the 6 seed

 

 

7 seed

SEA obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) SEA win + GB loss/tie
OR 2) SEA tie + DET tie + WAS loss/tie

DET obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) DET win + SEA loss/tie
OR 2) DET tie + SEA loss
OR 3) DET tie + SEA tie + WAS win

GB obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) GB win

 

 

Elimination

SEA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) SEA loss
OR 2) SEA tie + DET win
OR 3) SEA tie + DET tie + WAS win
OR 4) GB win

DET is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DET loss
OR 2) DET tie + SEA tie + WAS loss/tie
OR 3) SEA win

GB is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) GB loss/tie

 

AFC Scenarios by seed

1 seed

KC obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) KC win
OR 2) KC tie + BUF tie
OR 3) BUF loss

BUF obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) BUF win + KC loss/tie
OR 2) BUF tie + KC loss

 

2 seed

BUF obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) BUF loss + CIN loss/tie
OR 2) BUF tie + KC win/tie
OR 3) BUF win + KC win

KC obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) KC loss + BUF win/tie
OR 2) KC tie + BUF win

CIN obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) CIN win + BUF loss

 

 

3 seed

CIN obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) CIN loss/tie
OR 2) BUF win/tie

BUF obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) BUF loss + CIN win

 

4 seed

JAX obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) JAX win/tie

TEN obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) TEN win

 

 

5 seed

LAC obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) LAC win
OR 2) LAC tie + BAL tie
OR 3) BAL loss

BAL obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) BAL win + LAC loss/tie
OR 2) BAL tie + LAC loss

 

6 seed

BAL obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) BAL loss
OR 2) BAL tie + LAC tie
OR 3) LAC win

LAC obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) LAC loss + BAL win/tie
OR 2) LAC tie + BAL win

 

 

7 seed

NE obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) NE win
OR 2) NE tie + MIA loss/tie + PIT loss/tie
OR 3) MIA loss + PIT loss + JAX win/tie

MIA obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) MIA win + NE loss/tie
OR 2) MIA tie + NE loss + PIT loss/tie

PIT obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) PIT win + MIA loss/tie + NE loss/tie
OR 2) PIT tie + MIA loss + NE loss

JAX obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) JAX loss + MIA loss + NE loss + PIT loss

 

 

Elimination

TEN is eliminated from AFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) TEN loss/tie

 

JAX is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) JAX loss

 

JAX is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) JAX loss + MIA win/tie
OR 2) JAX loss + NE win/tie
OR 3) JAX loss + PIT win/tie

 

NE is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NE loss + MIA win/tie
OR 2) NE loss + JAX loss
OR 3) NE loss + PIT win/tie
OR 4) NE tie + MIA win
OR 5) NE tie + PIT win

 

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIA loss
OR 2) MIA tie + NE tie
OR 3) MIA tie + PIT win
OR 4) NE win

 

PIT is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) PIT loss
OR 2) PIT tie + MIA tie
OR 3) PIT tie + NE tie
OR 4) MIA win
OR 5) NE win

 

Questions/comments? Check out the corresponding reddit post or reach out to me on Twitter!.