Playoff Picture Entering Week 14 2023

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Standings Entering Week 14
Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 14
- NFC
- AFC
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 14
- NFC
- AFC
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 14
- NFC
- AFC
Seed Control Entering Week 14
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	NFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	PHI	10-2	6-1
2	SF	9-3	7-1	SF wins the tiebreak over DET on Conference Record (7-1 vs 6-2).
3	DET	9-3	6-2
4	ATL	6-6	4-4
5	DAL	9-3	6-3
6	MIN	6-6	6-3	MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). MIN wins the tiebreak over LAR on Conference Record (6-3 vs 4-4).
7	GB	6-6	4-3	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). GB wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head.
8	LAR	6-6	4-4	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0).
9	SEA	6-6	5-4
10	TB	5-7	4-4	TB wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
11	NO	5-7	2-5
12	NYG^k	4-8	3-4	NYG wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (3-4 vs 3-5).
13	CHI	4-8	3-5
14	WAS^k	4-9	2-7
15	ARI^k	3-10	2-6
16	CAR^ke	1-11	0-8

	AFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	MIA	9-3	6-2	MIA wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (6-2 vs 6-3).
2	BAL	9-3	6-3
3	KC	8-4	6-1	KC wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head.
4	JAX	8-4	6-3
5	PIT	7-5	5-3	PIT wins the tiebreak over CLE on Division Record (3-1 vs 3-2). IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). PIT wins the tiebreak over IND on Common Games (4-3 vs 4-4).
6	CLE	7-5	5-3	IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). CLE wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head.
7	IND	7-5	5-3	IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0).
8	HOU	7-5	4-3
9	DEN	6-6	3-5	BUF drops out of the tiebreak with CIN/DEN on Head-to-Head Sweep. DEN wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (3-5 vs 2-6).
10	CIN	6-6	2-6	CIN wins the tiebreak over BUF on Head-to-Head.
11	BUF	6-6	3-5
12	LAC	5-7	3-4	LAC wins the tiebreak over LV on Head-to-Head (1-0).
13	LV	5-7	3-5
14	NYJ^k	4-8	2-6	NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Strength of Victory (26-22 vs 18-30).
15	TEN	4-8	2-6
16	NE^k	2-10	2-5


NFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PHI	10-2	3-0
2	DAL	9-3	3-1
3	NYG^k	4-8	2-2
4	WAS^k	4-9	0-5

NFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	DET	9-3	2-1
2	MIN	6-6	2-1	MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3	GB	6-6	2-2
4	CHI	4-8	1-3

NFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	ATL	6-6	3-0
2	TB	5-7	2-1	TB wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3	NO	5-7	1-2
4	CAR^ke	1-11	0-3

NFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	SF	9-3	3-0
2	LAR	6-6	4-1	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0).
3	SEA	6-6	1-3
4	ARI^k	3-10	0-4

AFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	MIA	9-3	3-1
2	BUF	6-6	2-2
3	NYJ^k	4-8	1-3
4	NE^k	2-10	2-2

AFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	BAL	9-3	3-2
2	PIT	7-5	3-1	PIT wins the tiebreak over CLE on Division Record (3-1 vs 3-2).
3	CLE	7-5	3-2
4	CIN	6-6	0-4

AFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	JAX	8-4	4-1
2	IND	7-5	3-2	IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3	HOU	7-5	1-2
4	TEN	4-8	0-3

AFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	KC	8-4	3-1
2	DEN	6-6	1-2
3	LAC	5-7	1-1	LAC wins the tiebreak over LV on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4	LV	5-7	1-2

^e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
^k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 14

NFC

PHI clinches a playoff berth with:

	1)	PHI win + LAR loss/tie
OR	2)	PHI win + SEA loss/tie
OR	3)	PHI win + MIN loss/tie + GB loss/tie
OR	4)	PHI win + GB loss/tie + DET loss
OR	5)	PHI tie + LAR loss + SEA loss
OR	6)	PHI tie + LAR loss + MIN loss/tie
OR	7)	PHI tie + LAR loss + GB loss/tie
OR	8)	PHI tie + SEA loss + MIN loss/tie
OR	9)	PHI tie + SEA loss + GB loss/tie
OR	10)	PHI tie + MIN loss + GB loss

DAL clinches a playoff berth with:

	1)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB loss + SEA loss + LAR loss/tie + GB loss + MIN loss/tie
OR	2)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB loss + SEA loss + LAR loss/tie + GB tie + MIN loss
OR	3)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB loss + SEA loss + NO loss/tie + GB loss + MIN loss/tie
OR	4)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB loss + SEA loss + NO loss/tie + GB tie + MIN loss
OR	5)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB loss + SEA tie + LAR loss + NO loss/tie + GB loss + MIN loss/tie
OR	6)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB loss + SEA tie + LAR loss + NO loss/tie + GB tie + MIN loss
OR	7)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB tie + SEA loss + GB loss + MIN loss/tie
OR	8)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB tie + SEA loss + GB tie + MIN loss
OR	9)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB tie + SEA tie + LAR loss + GB loss + MIN loss/tie
OR	10)	DAL win + DET win/tie + TB tie + SEA tie + LAR loss + GB tie + MIN loss

SF clinches a playoff berth with:

	1)	SF win + MIN loss
OR	2)	SF win + MIN tie + GB tie
OR	3)	SF win + GB loss

AFC

No AFC clinching scenarios this week

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 14

NFC

ARI is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	LAR win + GB win
OR	2)	LAR win + GB tie + MIN win/tie

CHI is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:

	1)	CHI loss/tie
OR	2)	MIN win

SEA is knocked out of NFC West title contention with:

SEA loss

SEA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	SEA loss
OR	2)	SEA tie + PHI win

MIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	MIN loss + PHI win/tie
OR	2)	MIN loss + DET win/tie
OR	3)	MIN tie + PHI win

GB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	GB loss + PHI win/tie
OR	2)	GB loss + DET win/tie
OR	3)	GB tie + PHI win

ATL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	ATL loss + PHI win/tie
OR	2)	ATL loss + DET win/tie
OR	3)	ATL loss + SF win + LAR loss/tie
OR	4)	ATL loss + 2 or more combined wins from (CIN, KC, LV, LAC)
OR	5)	ATL tie + PHI win

The italicized portion is for DET clinching at least a tie in Strength of Victory over ATL

NO is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	NO loss/tie
OR	2)	PHI win/tie
OR	3)	DET win/tie
OR	4)	SF win + LAR loss/tie
OR	5)	SF win + MIA tie + PIT tie + CLE tie
OR	6)	SF win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIA, CLE)
OR	7)	SF win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (CLE, PIT)
OR	8)	SEA win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (CLE, PIT)
OR	9)	LAR loss/tie + GB win/tie
OR	10)	LAR loss + LV win
OR	11)	LAR loss + 0.5 or more combined wins from (MIA, CIN, PIT, KC, LAC)
OR	12)	LAR tie + LV win + 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, CIN, PIT, KC, LAC)
OR	13)	LAR tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIA, CIN, PIT, KC, LAC)
OR	14)	GB win + LV win
OR	15)	GB win + 0.5 or more combined wins from (MIA, CIN, CLE, PIT, KC, LAC)
OR	16)	GB tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIA, PIT)
OR	17)	GB tie + 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + LV win
OR	18)	GB tie + 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + 0.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC)
OR	19)	GB tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC)
OR	20)	GB tie + LV win + 1 combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC)
OR	21)	1.5 or more combined wins from (MIA, PIT)
OR	22)	1 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + 0.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC)
OR	23)	1 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + LV win
OR	24)	0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + 1.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC)
OR	25)	0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + LV win + 1 combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC)
OR	26)	0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + LV win + CLE win/tie + 0.5 combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC)
OR	27)	0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + CLE win/tie + 1 or more combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC)
OR	28)	2.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC)
OR	29)	2 combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC) + LV win

The italicized portion is for NO being unable to simultaniously pass DET and tie or pass LAR in Strength of Victory

TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	TB loss/tie
OR	2)	PHI win/tie
OR	3)	DET win/tie
OR	4)	SF win + LAR loss + NYG win + NO win + MIA win + NYJ win + CLE win + PIT win + IND win + KC win + LV win

The italicized portion is for LAR clinching a Strength of Victory tie and clinching Strength of Schedule over TB

LAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	LAR loss + PHI win/tie
OR	2)	LAR loss + DET win/tie
OR	3)	LAR tie + PHI win

AFC

NOTE: The LAC scenarios are mostly validated, but are still under review.

NE is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	NE loss/tie
OR	2)	HOU win/tie
OR	3)	CIN win/tie
OR	4)	LV win + BUF win/tie
OR	5)	LV tie + BUF win

TEN is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:

	1)	TEN loss + JAX win/tie
OR	2)	TEN loss + IND win
OR	3)	TEN loss + IND tie + HOU tie
OR	4)	TEN loss + HOU win
OR	5)	TEN tie + JAX win
OR	6)	TEN tie + IND win + HOU win

TEN is eliminated from playoff contention with:

TEN loss + JAX

JAX/

CLE tie +

IND win +

PIT win +

HOU win/tie

CIN is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:

CIN loss + BAL

BAL win

CIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	CIN loss + BAL win
OR	2)	CIN loss + BAL tie + MIA tie
OR	3)	CIN loss + MIA win
OR	4)	CIN tie + BAL win + MIA win
OR	5)	CIN tie + BAL win + MIA tie + BUF loss
OR	6)	CIN tie + BAL tie + MIA win + BUF loss

BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	BUF loss + MIA win
OR	2)	BUF loss + MIA tie + BAL win/tie
OR	3)	BUF loss + MIA tie + JAX win
OR	4)	BUF loss + BAL win/tie + JAX win
OR	5)	BUF tie + BAL win + MIA win + DEN loss

DEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	DEN loss + MIA win + BAL win/tie
OR	2)	DEN loss + MIA tie + BAL win
OR	3)	DEN tie + MIA win + BAL win + BUF loss

LAC is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	LAC loss
OR	2)	LAC tie + BAL win/tie
OR	3)	LAC tie + MIA win/tie
OR	4)	LAC tie + JAX win
OR	5)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT win + 1 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	6)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT win + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 2.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	7)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT win + HOU win + IND win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	8)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT win + BUF win + 0.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + DET win + MIN win + ATL win + NO win
OR	9)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT win + BUF win + 1 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 3 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	10)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT win + BUF win + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 2 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	11)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT win + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + 1 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	12)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + KC win + HOU win + DET win + IND win + 2 or more combined wins from (GB, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	13)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + KC win + HOU win + DET win + IND tie + 3 or more combined wins from (GB, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	14)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + KC win + HOU win + DET win + GB win + MIN win + ATL win + NO win
OR	15)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + KC win + HOU win + DET tie + IND win + 2.5 combined wins from (MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	16)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + KC win + HOU win + DET tie + GB win + IND win + 2 combined wins from (MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	17)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + KC win + HOU win + DET tie + GB win + IND tie + MIN win + ATL win + NO win
OR	18)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + KC win + HOU win + IND win + MIN win + ATL win + NO win
OR	19)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + HOU win + IND win + 3 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	20)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + DET win + MIN win + ATL win + NO win
OR	21)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	22)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT tie + BUF win + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	23)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT loss + HOU win + IND win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO)
OR	24)	LAC tie + JAX tie + PIT loss + BUF win + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + DET win + MIN win + ATL win + NO win
OR	25)	MIA win + BAL win/tie
OR	26)	MIA tie + BAL win
OR	27)	BAL win + JAX win + PIT win/tie + 0.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 4.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	28)	BAL win + JAX win + PIT win/tie + 1 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	29)	BAL win + JAX win + PIT win/tie + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 2.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	30)	BAL win + JAX win + PIT win/tie + HOU win + IND win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	31)	BAL win + JAX win + 1 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 4.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	32)	BAL win + JAX win + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	33)	BAL win + JAX win + HOU win + IND win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	34)	BAL tie + MIA tie + JAX win + PIT win/tie + 0.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + DET win + MIN win + ATL win + NO win + BUF win
OR	35)	BAL tie + MIA tie + JAX win + PIT win/tie + 1 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 4 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	36)	BAL tie + MIA tie + JAX win + PIT win/tie + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 3 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	37)	BAL tie + MIA tie + JAX win + PIT win/tie + HOU win + IND win + 2 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	38)	BAL tie + MIA tie + JAX win + 1 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + DET win + MIN win + ATL win + NO win + BUF win
OR	39)	BAL tie + MIA tie + JAX win + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 4 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	40)	BAL tie + MIA tie + JAX win + HOU win + IND win + 3 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	41)	MIA win + JAX win + PIT win/tie + 1 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 4.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	42)	MIA win + JAX win + PIT win/tie + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	43)	MIA win + JAX win + PIT win/tie + HOU win + IND win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	44)	MIA win + JAX win + 1.5 combined wins from (HOU, IND) + 4.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)
OR	45)	MIA win + JAX win + HOU win + IND win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (DET, MIN, ATL, NO, BUF)

The italicized portions are for LAC being unable to simultaneously reach PIT & JAX in Strength of Victory

LV is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	LV loss
OR	2)	LV tie + MIA win/tie
OR	3)	LV tie + BUF win/tie
OR	4)	LV tie + JAX win/tie
OR	5)	MIA win + BAL win/tie
OR	6)	MIA win + JAX win
OR	7)	MIA tie + BAL win
OR	8)	MIA tie + BAL tie + JAX win
OR	9)	BAL win + JAX win

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 14

We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
PHI	54%	17%	5%	<1%	24%	<1%	<1%	<1%
SF	18%	42%	37%	<1%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%
DET	14%	33%	49%	<1%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%
ATL	<1%	<1%	1%	66%	<1%	1%	2%	31%
DAL	14%	7%	3%	<1%	73%	3%	<1%	<1%
MIN	<1%	<1%	3%	<1%	1%	27%	22%	46%
GB	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	24%	21%	53%
LAR	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	19%	22%	57%
SEA	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	18%	22%	59%
TB	<1%	<1%	<1%	19%	<1%	1%	4%	76%
NO	<1%	<1%	<1%	14%	<1%	1%	3%	82%
NYG						1%	2%	98%
CHI		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	99%
WAS						<1%	<1%	>99%
ARI						<1%	<1%	>99%
CAR								100%

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
MIA	38%	27%	19%	13%	<1%	1%	1%	1%
BAL	37%	24%	15%	7%	9%	4%	2%	1%
KC	11%	21%	27%	33%	1%	1%	2%	4%
JAX	10%	17%	22%	23%	8%	8%	6%	6%
PIT	1%	2%	3%	3%	18%	19%	17%	36%
CLE	1%	2%	2%	1%	24%	19%	15%	37%
IND	1%	3%	5%	6%	16%	16%	16%	38%
HOU	<1%	2%	5%	6%	16%	16%	16%	39%
DEN	<1%	<1%	1%	4%	2%	4%	8%	81%
CIN	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4%	6%	8%	82%
BUF	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	1%	4%	7%	86%
LAC	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	95%
LV	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	2%	96%
NYJ					<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
TEN		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
NE							<1%	>99%

Seed Control Entering Week 14

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI PHI MIA MIA(3) BAL BAL(2)

Teams that control the 2 seed:
SF

Teams that control the 3 seed:
DET DET JAX JAX(2) KC(1)

Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL ATL TB

Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL DAL

Teams that control the 6 seed:
MIN MIN(7) PIT PIT(4) CLE CLE(5) IND IND(7) HOU HOU

Teams that control the 7 seed:
GB(E) LAR LAR(E)

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
NYG NYG WAS WAS CHI CHI NO(4) CAR CAR SEA SEA(6) ARI ARI
BUF BUF NYJ NYJ NE CIN CIN TEN TEN DEN DEN LAC LAC LV

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