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- Standings Entering Week 14
- Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 14
- Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 14
- Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 14
- Seed Control Entering Week 14
- Contact Us
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Send a message here and we will have a Wednesday post addressing a selection of them!
Standings Entering Week 14
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Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
1 |
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10-2 | 6-1 | |
2 |
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9-3 | 7-1 | SF wins the tiebreak over DET on Conference Record (7-1 vs 6-2). |
3 |
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9-3 | 6-2 | |
4 |
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6-6 | 4-4 | |
5 |
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9-3 | 6-3 | |
6 |
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6-6 | 6-3 | MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). MIN wins the tiebreak over LAR on Conference Record (6-3 vs 4-4). |
7 |
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6-6 | 4-3 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). GB wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head. |
8 |
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6-6 | 4-4 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
9 |
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6-6 | 5-4 | |
10 |
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5-7 | 4-4 | TB wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
11 |
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5-7 | 2-5 | |
12 |
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4-8 | 3-4 | NYG wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (3-4 vs 3-5). |
13 |
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4-8 | 3-5 | |
14 |
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4-9 | 2-7 | |
15 |
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3-10 | 2-6 | |
16 |
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1-11 | 0-8 | |
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Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
1 |
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9-3 | 6-2 | MIA wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (6-2 vs 6-3). |
2 |
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9-3 | 6-3 | |
3 |
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8-4 | 6-1 | KC wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head. |
4 |
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8-4 | 6-3 | |
5 |
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7-5 | 5-3 | PIT wins the tiebreak over CLE on Division Record (3-1 vs 3-2). IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). PIT wins the tiebreak over IND on Common Games (4-3 vs 4-4). |
6 |
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7-5 | 5-3 | IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). CLE wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head. |
7 |
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7-5 | 5-3 | IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
8 |
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7-5 | 4-3 | |
9 |
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6-6 | 3-5 | BUF drops out of the tiebreak with CIN/DEN on Head-to-Head Sweep. DEN wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (3-5 vs 2-6). |
10 |
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6-6 | 2-6 | CIN wins the tiebreak over BUF on Head-to-Head. |
11 |
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6-6 | 3-5 | |
12 |
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5-7 | 3-4 | LAC wins the tiebreak over LV on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
13 |
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5-7 | 3-5 | |
14 |
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4-8 | 2-6 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Strength of Victory (26-22 vs 18-30). |
15 |
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4-8 | 2-6 | |
16 |
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2-10 | 2-5 |
NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 |
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10-2 | 3-0 | |
2 |
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9-3 | 3-1 | |
3 |
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4-8 | 2-2 | |
4 |
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4-9 | 0-5 | |
NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 |
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9-3 | 2-1 | |
2 |
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6-6 | 2-1 | MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
3 |
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6-6 | 2-2 | |
4 |
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4-8 | 1-3 | |
NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 |
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6-6 | 3-0 | |
2 |
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5-7 | 2-1 | TB wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
3 |
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5-7 | 1-2 | |
4 |
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1-11 | 0-3 | |
NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 |
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9-3 | 3-0 | |
2 |
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6-6 | 4-1 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
3 |
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6-6 | 1-3 | |
4 |
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3-10 | 0-4 | |
AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 |
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9-3 | 3-1 | |
2 |
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6-6 | 2-2 | |
3 |
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4-8 | 1-3 | |
4 |
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2-10 | 2-2 | |
AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 |
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9-3 | 3-2 | |
2 |
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7-5 | 3-1 | PIT wins the tiebreak over CLE on Division Record (3-1 vs 3-2). |
3 |
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7-5 | 3-2 | |
4 |
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6-6 | 0-4 | |
AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 |
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8-4 | 4-1 | |
2 |
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7-5 | 3-2 | IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
3 |
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7-5 | 1-2 | |
4 |
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4-8 | 0-3 | |
AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 |
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8-4 | 3-1 | |
2 |
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6-6 | 1-2 | |
3 |
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5-7 | 1-1 | LAC wins the tiebreak over LV on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
4 |
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5-7 | 1-2 |
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 14
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AFC
No AFC clinching scenarios this week
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 14
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The italicized portion is for DET clinching at least a tie in Strength of Victory over ATL
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OR | 14) | GB win + LV win |
OR | 15) | GB win + 0.5 or more combined wins from (MIA, CIN, CLE, PIT, KC, LAC) |
OR | 16) | GB tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIA, PIT) |
OR | 17) | GB tie + 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + LV win |
OR | 18) | GB tie + 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + 0.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC) |
OR | 19) | GB tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC) |
OR | 20) | GB tie + LV win + 1 combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC) |
OR | 21) | 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIA, PIT) |
OR | 22) | 1 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + 0.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC) |
OR | 23) | 1 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + LV win |
OR | 24) | 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + 1.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC) |
OR | 25) | 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + LV win + 1 combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC) |
OR | 26) | 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + LV win + CLE win/tie + 0.5 combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC) |
OR | 27) | 0.5 combined wins from (MIA, PIT) + CLE win/tie + 1 or more combined wins from (CIN, KC, LAC) |
OR | 28) | 2.5 or more combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC) |
OR | 29) | 2 combined wins from (CIN, CLE, KC, LAC) + LV win |
The italicized portion is for NO being unable to simultaniously pass DET and tie or pass LAR in Strength of Victory
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The italicized portion is for LAR clinching a Strength of Victory tie and clinching Strength of Schedule over TB
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AFC
NOTE: The LAC scenarios are mostly validated, but are still under review.
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The italicized portions are for LAC being unable to simultaneously reach PIT & JAX in Strength of Victory
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Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 14
We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
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54% | 17% | 5% | <1% | 24% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
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18% | 42% | 37% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
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14% | 33% | 49% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
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<1% | <1% | 1% | 66% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 31% |
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14% | 7% | 3% | <1% | 73% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
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<1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 27% | 22% | 46% |
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<1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 1% | 24% | 21% | 53% |
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<1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 19% | 22% | 57% |
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<1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 1% | 18% | 22% | 59% |
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<1% | <1% | <1% | 19% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 76% |
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<1% | <1% | <1% | 14% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 82% |
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1% | 2% | 98% | |||||
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<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 99% | |
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<1% | <1% | >99% | |||||
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<1% | <1% | >99% | |||||
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100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
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38% | 27% | 19% | 13% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
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37% | 24% | 15% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
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11% | 21% | 27% | 33% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
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10% | 17% | 22% | 23% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
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1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 36% |
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1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 24% | 19% | 15% | 37% |
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1% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 38% |
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<1% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 39% |
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<1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 81% |
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<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 82% |
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<1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 86% |
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<1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 95% |
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<1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 96% |
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<1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | ||||
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<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | |
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<1% | >99% |
Seed Control Entering Week 14
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI
MIA(3)
BAL(2)
Teams that control the 2 seed:
SF
Teams that control the 3 seed:
DET
JAX(2)
KC(1)
Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL
TB
Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL
Teams that control the 6 seed:
MIN(7)
PIT(4)
CLE(5)
IND(7)
HOU
Teams that control the 7 seed:
GB(E)
LAR(E)
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
NYG
WAS
CHI
NO(4)
CAR
SEA(6)
ARI
BUF
NYJ
NE
CIN
TEN
DEN
LAC
LV
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