Playoff Picture Entering Week 17 2023

• We have a mailbag now!
• Standings Entering Week 17
• Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17
  • NFC
  • AFC
• Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17
  • NFC
  • AFC
• Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17
  • NFC
  • AFC
• Seed Control Entering Week 17
• Contact Us

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We have a mailbag now!

Send a message here and we will have our final mailbag of the season on Wednesday or Thursday post addressing a selection of them!

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Standings Entering Week 17

• Conference Standings
• Division Standings

	NFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	SFxy	11-4	9-1	SF wins the tiebreak over PHI/DET on Conference Record (9-1 vs 7-3/7-3).
2	PHIx	11-4	7-3	PHI wins the tiebreak over DET on Strength of Victory (79-86 vs 72-93).
3	DETxy	11-4	7-3
4	TB	8-7	6-4
5	DALx	10-5	7-3
6	LARk	8-7	6-4	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0).
7	SEAk	8-7	6-5
8	MINk	7-8	6-4	MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). MIN wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head.
9	ATL	7-8	4-6	ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head.
10	GBk	7-8	5-5	GB wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head.
11	NO	7-8	4-6
12	CHIk	6-9	5-5
13	NYGke	5-10	4-6
14	WASke	4-11	2-8
15	ARIke	3-12	2-8
16	CARke	2-13	1-10
	AFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	BALx	12-3	7-3
2	MIAx	11-4	7-3
3	KC	9-6	7-3
4	JAX	8-7	6-5	JAX wins the tiebreak over HOU/IND on Head-to-Head (3-1 vs 1-2/1-2).
5	CLE	10-5	7-3
6	BUF	9-6	5-5
7	IND	8-7	6-4	IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). IND wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
8	HOU	8-7	5-5	PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). HOU wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
9	PITk	8-7	6-5	PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0).
10	CINk	8-7	3-7
11	LV	7-8	5-5	LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
12	DEN	7-8	4-6
13	NYJke	6-9	3-7
14	TENke	5-10	3-7	TEN wins the tiebreak over LAC on Head-to-Head.
15	LACke	5-10	3-7
16	NEke	4-11	4-6

NFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PHIx	11-4	4-1
2	DALx	10-5	4-1
3	NYGke	5-10	2-3
4	WASke	4-11	0-5
NFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	DETxy	11-4	3-2
2	MINk	7-8	2-2	MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3	GBk	7-8	2-2
4	CHIk	6-9	2-3
NFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	TB	8-7	3-1
2	ATL	7-8	3-2	ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3	NO	7-8	2-2
4	CARke	2-13	1-4
NFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	SFxy	11-4	5-0
2	LARk	8-7	4-1	LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0).
3	SEAk	8-7	1-4
4	ARIke	3-12	0-5
AFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	MIAx	11-4	4-1
2	BUF	9-6	2-2
3	NYJke	6-9	1-4
4	NEke	4-11	2-2
AFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	BALx	12-3	3-2
2	CLE	10-5	3-2
3	PITk	8-7	4-1	PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0).
4	CINk	8-7	0-5
AFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	JAX	8-7	4-1	JAX wins the tiebreak over HOU/IND on Head-to-Head (3-1 vs 1-2/1-2).
2	IND	8-7	3-2	IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3	HOU	8-7	2-2
4	TENke	5-10	0-4
AFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	KC	9-6	3-2
2	LV	7-8	3-2	LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3	DEN	7-8	2-2
4	LACke	5-10	1-3

^x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
^y Team has clinched their division title.
^e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
^k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 

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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFC

SF clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:

1)

SF win + PHI loss + DET loss

 

PHI clinches the NFC East division title with:

	1)	PHI win + DAL loss/tie
OR	2)	PHI tie + DAL loss

 

TB clinches the NFC South division title with:

	1)	TB win
OR	2)	TB tie + ATL loss

 

LAR clinches a playoff berth with:

	1)	LAR win + SEA loss
OR	2)	LAR win + MIN/ GB tie

 

SEA clinches a playoff berth with:

1)

SEA win + MIN/ GB tie

 

 

 

AFC

BAL clinches the AFC North division title with:

	1)	BAL win/tie
OR	2)	CLE loss/tie

 

BAL clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:

1)

BAL win

 

MIA clinches the AFC East division title with:

	1)	MIA win/tie
OR	2)	BUF loss/tie

 

KC clinches the AFC West division title with:

	1)	KC win/tie
OR	2)	DEN loss/tie + LV loss/tie

 

JAX clinches the AFC South division title with:

1)

JAX win + IND loss + HOU loss

 

CLE clinches a playoff berth with:

	1)	CLE win/tie
OR	2)	PIT loss/tie
OR	3)	BUF loss
OR	4)	JAX loss/tie
OR	5)	HOU loss/tie + IND loss/tie

 

BUF clinches a playoff berth with:

	1)	BUF win + PIT loss/tie + CIN loss/tie
OR	2)	BUF win + PIT loss/tie + JAX loss/tie
OR	3)	BUF win + PIT loss/tie + IND loss/tie + HOU loss/tie
OR	4)	BUF win + CIN loss/tie + JAX loss/tie
OR	5)	BUF win + CIN loss/tie + IND loss/tie + HOU loss/tie
OR	6)	BUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + JAX loss
OR	7)	BUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + HOU loss/tie
OR	8)	BUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + IND loss/tie
OR	9)	BUF tie + PIT loss + JAX loss + HOU loss/tie
OR	10)	BUF tie + PIT loss + JAX loss + IND loss/tie
OR	11)	BUF tie + PIT loss + HOU loss + IND loss
OR	12)	BUF tie + CIN loss + JAX loss + HOU loss/tie
OR	13)	BUF tie + CIN loss + JAX loss + IND loss/tie
OR	14)	BUF tie + CIN loss + HOU loss + IND loss

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFC

MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	MIN loss + SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie
OR	2)	MIN loss + SEA win/tie + TB tie + ATL win
OR	3)	MIN loss + LAR win/tie + TB tie + ATL win
OR	4)	MIN tie + SEA win + LAR win

 

GB is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	GB loss + SEA win/tie
OR	2)	GB loss + LAR win/tie
OR	3)	GB loss + TB tie + ATL win
OR	4)	GB loss + NO win + ATL win + ARI win + 6.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, WAS, CIN, CLE, IND, JAX, DEN)
OR	5)	GB tie + SEA win + LAR win

The portion of the scenarios in italics are for LAR clinching Strength of Victory over GB

 

CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	CHI loss/tie
OR	2)	SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie
OR	3)	SEA win/tie + GB win
OR	4)	SEA win/tie + MIN win
OR	5)	LAR win/tie + GB win
OR	6)	LAR win/tie + MIN win

 

NO is knocked out of NFC South title contention with:

1)

NO loss/tie

 

NO is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	NO loss
OR	2)	NO tie + SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie

 

ATL is knocked out of NFC South title contention with:

	1)	ATL loss + TB tie
OR	2)	TB win

 

ATL is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	ATL loss + TB win/tie
OR	2)	ATL tie + TB win + LAR tie + SEA win/tie
OR	3)	ATL tie + TB win + LAR win + SEA tie
OR	4)	TB win + LAR win + SEA win

 

DAL is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:

	1)	DAL loss/tie + PHI win
OR	2)	DAL loss + PHI tie

 

DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	DAL loss
OR	2)	DAL tie + PHI win
OR	3)	DAL tie + SF tie
OR	4)	SF win

 

PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

1)

PHI loss + SF win

 

DET is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	DET loss + SF win
OR	2)	DET loss + PHI win

 

AFC

PIT is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + HOU win + DEN loss/tie
OR	2)	PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + HOU win + JAX loss + KC win/tie
OR	3)	PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win/tie + JAX win + DEN loss/tie

 

CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:

1)

CIN loss + PIT win + BUF win/tie

 

HOU is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:

	1)	HOU loss + IND win
OR	2)	HOU loss + JAX win

 

HOU is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	HOU loss + IND win + JAX win + BUF win/tie
OR	2)	HOU loss + IND win + JAX win + CIN win + PIT loss/tie + DEN loss/tie

 

BUF is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:

	1)	BUF loss/tie
OR	2)	MIA win/tie

 

JAX is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:

	1)	JAX loss + IND win + HOU win/tie
OR	2)	JAX loss + IND tie + HOU win

 

IND is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:

1)

IND loss + JAX win

 

LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:

	1)	LV loss/tie
OR	2)	KC win/tie

 

LV is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	LV loss
OR	2)	LV tie + JAX win
OR	3)	LV tie + PIT win
OR	4)	LV tie + CIN win
OR	5)	LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR	6)	LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + CIN tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR	7)	LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + CIN tie + 0.5 combined wins from (LAR, BAL, CLE) + DAL win + ATL win + NE win
OR	8)	LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + PIT tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR	9)	LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + PIT tie + CIN tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)

The portions of scenarios in italics are for IND clinching Strength of Victory or a tie in Strength of Victory and clinching Strength of Schedule over LV.

 

DEN is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:

	1)	DEN loss/tie
OR	2)	KC win/tie

 

DEN is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	DEN loss
OR	2)	DEN tie + JAX win/tie
OR	3)	DEN tie + IND win/tie + HOU win/tie
OR	4)	DEN tie + PIT win/tie
OR	5)	DEN tie + CIN win
OR	6)	KC win/tie + BUF win/tie + PIT win
OR	7)	KC win/tie + BUF win/tie + HOU win + IND win + JAX loss/tie
OR	8)	KC win/tie + HOU win + IND win + JAX loss/tie + PIT win

 

CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:

	1)	CLE loss/tie
OR	2)	BAL win/tie

 

CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	CLE loss/tie
OR	2)	BAL win/tie

 

MIA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

1)

MIA loss

 

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Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17

We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
SF	45%	31%	23%
PHI	25%	32%	25%		19%
DET	27%	28%	45%
TB				79%		<1%	2%	19%
DAL	3%	9%	7%		81%
LAR						51%	25%	24%
SEA						34%	36%	30%
MIN						7%	16%	77%
ATL				11%		1%	5%	83%
GB						7%	13%	80%
NO				10%		<1%	3%	87%
CHI						<1%	<1%	>99%
NYG								100%
WAS								100%
ARI								100%
CAR								100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
BAL	74%	25%			1%
MIA	26%	70%	1%		1%	2%
KC		1%	83%	14%		<1%	<1%	2%
JAX			6%	36%		2%	10%	47%
CLE	<1%	1%			92%	7%	<1%	<1%
BUF		4%			5%	58%	18%	15%
IND			5%	27%	<1%	3%	11%	54%
HOU			5%	21%	<1%	3%	12%	58%
PIT					1%	13%	23%	64%
CIN						11%	22%	67%
LV			<1%	1%		<1%	3%	95%
DEN			<1%	1%		<1%	1%	98%
NYJ								100%
TEN								100%
LAC								100%
NE								100%

 

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Seed Control Entering Week 17

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
SF MIA BAL

Teams that control the 2 seed:
DET

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI(5) KC

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB JAX

Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL CLE

Teams that control the 6 seed:
LAR(7) BUF(E)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
SEA(E) HOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
NYG WAS MIN(6) GB CHI ATL NO(4) CAR ARI
NYJ NE PIT CIN IND(7) TEN DEN LV LAC

 

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