Week 15 Mailbag
Welcome to our weekly mailbag post! If you have any questions for future posts, feel free to send us a message here!
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See the Playoff Picture entering week 15 here
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Gerald G.
If Miami wins the rest of their games do they get the first seed guaranteed or do the Ravens have to loss another game?
MIA plays BAL in Week 17. If MIA wins out, that means they finish 13-4, they give BAL a 4th loss, and since no other team in the AFC can finish 13-4, MIA gets the 1 seed tiebreaker from that head-to-head win over BAL.
Danny R.
Fins fans are panicking everywhere after Monday night’s meltdown. I know there are a lot of other possibilities, but please correct me if I’m wrong: regardless of what happens in the next 3 weeks, a Miami win over Buffalo in week 18 gives the Fins the division.
You are correct. If MIA defeats BUF, MIA loses their other 3 games, and BUF wins their other 3 games, they would both be 10-7. They would be 1-1 against each other, and MIA would win on division record (4-2 vs 3-3).
Pack M.
Is there any realistic way for the Cardinals to make the playoffs?
Depends on your definition of realistic. Is it possible? Yes. Would it required an absurd combination of results? Also Yes.
The main thing for ARI is that they win nearly every tiebreaker, either 2-way or multi-way in situations, except for against LAR. So they just need to win out and have 9 other teams in the NFC to finish with 10 losses (or 11 losses in the case of LAR).
Henry L.
What is the easiest way for the Giants to make the playoffs?
For the simplest path, NYG needs to win out to finish 9-8. If they win out, NYG wins nearly every tiebreaker. In fact, the only 2-way ties they can’t win are vs MIN (If MIN’s 2 wins are vs NFC teams) and SEA (due to SEA’s head-to-head win). In winning out, they would give NO & LAR 8th losses. This means that the easiest way is to get MIN & SEA out of the way, so we have GB lose a game, one of ATL or TB lose a game (the other can win the division), SEA lose 2 games, and MIN win a game. GB plays TB this week, so barring a tie, at minimum, one of those 2 are already out of the way.
Daniel J.
I was curious as to what scenarios would have to happen for the Broncos to win the AFC West
First thing is that DEN has 1 more divisional loss than KC. KC & DEN both have games left against LAC & LV. If DEN finishes tied with KC, DEN needs KC to either lose one of those games, or both if DEN also loses one. After that, we fall to common games. If KC defeats/ties CIN in week 17, DEN wins common games. If KC loses to CIN, then the 2 would be tied in common games, and we fall to conference record, which KC would win.
Of course, the easiest way for DEN would be to not worry about tiebreakers and win outright, but if DEN wins out, and KC goes 3-1, with that 1 loss being to LAC or LV, DEN wins the division on common games. If that 1 loss is to NE or CIN, KC wins the division on division record.
Randy R.
I’m just curious, what would have to happen for the Titans, Cardinals, Giants, and Commanders to all make the playoffs, if possible?
This is impossible because DAL & PHI are guaranteed to finish ahead of ARI, NYG, and WAS on overall record.
We can get NYG, ARI, and TEN in together, though. Spelling out everything would be too much, but there is a simple process we can follow. Let NYG, ARI, and TEN win out, and let the following teams lose out in this order (by which I mean each team loses their remaining games that weren’t already won due to a previous team in the order losing to them):
MIN, GB, LAR, NO, ATL, CHI, PIT, DEN, BUF, CIN, LAC, LV, NYJ, SEA, WAS. (After this, let JAX & HOU win their remaining games)
NYG takes the 6 seed on Record, CHI takes 2nd in the NFC North (MIN drops on division record, and CHI beats GB on conference record), ATL takes 2nd in the NFC South (head-to-head over NO), ARI takes 2nd in the NFC West over SEA (division record), then ARI gets the 7 seed on head-to-head sweep over CHI/ATL. TEN takes 3rd in the AFC South (behind IND & JAX) on head-to-head over HOU, and takes the 7 seed over CIN on head-to-head.
Pumbaa C.
Is there any chance of a 4-way tie in the AFC North (guessing they would be 11-6)? And would there also be a chance of a 4-way tie breaker of the AFC North being the #1 seed?
There is no chance of a 4-way tie at 11-6 because CIN plays PIT and both are already at 6 losses. However, at 11-6, PIT would win the head-to-head tiebreaker over BAL & CLE in a 3-way tie. CIN/BAL/CLE would go to BAL on head-to-head. Either of those teams winning the 3-way tiebreaker could win the 1 seed at 11-6 if other games go right.
Brian L.
Curious to hear scenarios for how the Eagles and Cowboys could both miss the playoffs.
This is not possible because one of those 2 will win the NFC East.
Krisijan S.
Hi. I was curious if it’s possible for two teams from the NFC south with losing records to make the playoffs? One as the division winner, other as the seventh seed.
It is possible. Let NO defeat NYG & LAR, and TB defeat GB. Then let the following teams lose out in this order (by which I mean each team loses their remaining games that weren’t already won due to a previous team in the order losing to them):
NO, ATL, TB, SEA, CHI, LAR, GB, NYG, WAS
NO & TB would be at 8-9. the 8th seed and beyond would be at 10 losses.
Declan W.
What is the worst record the 7 seed can get in the NFC this season?
ARI could get the 7 seed at 6-10-1. Let ARI tie this week and then win out, TB tie GB, ATL tie CHI, and then the following teams lose out in this order (by which I mean each team loses their remaining games that weren’t already won due to a previous team in the order losing to them):
LAR, GB, CHI, TB, ATL, SEA, NYG, WAS
TB takes 2nd in the NFC South on common games over ATL, CHI takes 3rd in the NFC over GB on division record. CHI drops out of TB/ARI/CHI on head-to-head sweep, and ARI wins the tiebreak over TB on common games, taking the 7 seed at 6-10-1
Dan
Why would the Eagles need 49ers/Lions wins in some scenarios? Is it similar to the reason(s) why Cowboys need a Lions win in other scenarios.
IF PHI were to lose out, they would have a really bad conference record, but they do have a head-to-head win over LAR. In the scenarios in question, we have removed the possibility of a 10-7 ATL wildcard team from the mix. The MIN loss/tie or GB loss/tie portions of the scenarios also remove one of those NFC North teams from the mix. This means that LAR has to get past PHI. We have to avoid a 2-way tie with LAR for this.
One option is to have LAR win out and SF lose out. This gives LAR the NFC West title, and puts SF in the wildcard mix, and they finish ahead of PHI in any 2 or 3 way tie due to head-to-head and better conference record. Thus, either SF loss/tie or LAR win/tie are required to prevent that from happening. If SF wins/ties but LAR wins, we have to use either DET, GB, or MIN to get LAR past PHI. Let’s look at those.
PHI/GB/LAR - LAR drops on head-to-head sweep, GB advances over PHI on conference record, PHI advances over LAR on head-to-head. GB not usable
PHI/MIN/LAR - PHI advances on head-to-head sweep MIN not usable
PHI/DET/LAR - LAR advances on conference record. PHI has a 6-6 conference record. Depending upon which loss DET has, DET could finish anywhere from a 6-6 to 7-5 conference record. If DET’s one loss is to an NFC team, then PHI/DET falls to common games, which PHI wins. If DET loses or ties to an AFC team, then at 10-7, they would have a superior conference record, so all of DET’s remaining losses must to NFC teams to prevent DET from finishing ahead of PHI. DET plays non-conference DEN this week. That means that if DET wins, it guarantees, DET’s remaining losses would be NFC, and they can’t pass PHI in this scenario. Thus, DET win forces one of LAR/DET behind PHI and clinches for them.
Note that SEA doesn’t make an appearance here. This is because PHI plays SEA, and we are assuming PHI loses out, which means that SEA wins this week.
Rushaan S.
What is the weirdest scenario that your team ever calculated that ended up happening?
There’s a lot of weird scenarios out there, but usually what makes them weird is the complexity. And complex scenarios rarely come to fruition. As far as one that did, the weirdness was not in the scenario but in how it came to fruition. In week 13 of 2022, CHI had the following scenario.
 CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
CHI loss +
 SEA win |
|
| OR | 2) |
CHI loss +
 NYG/
 WAS tie |
CHI & NYG/WAS played in the early slate, SEA didn’t play until the late slate. CHI lost before NYG/WAS finished, so that took care of half of the situation. NYG/WAS then played to a tie, which eliminated CHI. Had either team won, CHI would have stayed alive (at least until SEA won 3 hours later). It’s the only time I’m aware of that a required tie has eliminated a team.
Alexandr K.
If the Cowboys and the Eagles both finish 13-4 with 5-1 division record and Cowboys loss being to the Bills or the Dolphins, what results need to be in order for Dallas to clinch a tiebreaker via Strength of Victory?
It matters which game PHI loses and which game DAL loses. So rather than answer directly, I’ll show an example using the two losses to the teams with the best records - SEA over PHI & MIA over DAL
This means that DAL beat the following teams:
NYGx2, WASx2, NYJ, NE, LAC, LAR, CAR, SEA, PHI, BUF, DET
And PHI beat the following teams:
NYGx2, WASx2, MIA, NE, KC, LAR, TB, ARI, DAL, BUF, MIN
The teams in bold are the ones that aren’t common between the two (PHI & DAL’s wins over each other cancel out because they obviouisly have the same record).
For DAL to win Strength of Victory, they would need the combined records of NYJ, LAC, CAR, SEA, and DET to pass the combined records of MIA, KC, TB, ARI, and MIN. With the DAL/PHI results taken into account, PHI has an edge 34-33 to 27-40, So DAL would have to make up 8 games among those to clinch SoV.
Declan W.
Has there been a scenario where a team had to win by a certain amount in order to clinch the playoffs? For example lets say team A had to win by 10 in order to clinch, a 24-21 win would eliminate them but a 35-21 win would clinch the playoffs?
Week 17 1999. If GB & CAR both won, and DAL lost, GB/CAR would fall to net conference points. GB & CAR played in the early window, and DAL didn’t play until later. GB had an 18 point advantage, but both teams wanted to run up the score to win this tiebreaker. There was a point in the 4th quarter where CAR led 45-7 and GB led GB led 35-17, giving CAR a +2 edge on GB, but it didn’t last. GB won the net points tiebreaker. However, DAL won later in the day, rendering it all moot.
My understanding is that the NFL wanted to avoid situations where teams felt like they should run up the score, which was the impetus for the tiebreakers to be redone in 2002 when realignment occurred to make scoring-related tiebreakers almost impossible to reach. Since 2002, we have had 1 scenario in the final week of the season where we could have ended up with a scoring related tiebreaker (2015 AFC South title between IND & HOU), but it required a bunch of results to happen in order to get there, and they didn’t come to fruition.
Seth A.
How can DAL clinch SoV over ATL this week? It seems to me like even if every game goes DAL’s way this week, if the games all go ATL’s way in the following three weeks, Atlanta would have a better strength of victory at 10-7. I did the math, and it didn’t look like Dallas could even come close to tying/clinching this week. What am I missing?
SoV is a tricky beast. The most important thing is that we aren’t calculating SoV in a vaccuum. We are calculating it for a specific scenario. Let’s start there. The scenario in question has SEA loss/tie + MIN loss. We are also assuming DAL loses out, and for it to get this far, TB & ATL have to win out, or else ATL would win the division at 10-7 and we wouldn’t have a 10-7 NFC South team. Since SEA is losing/tying, this means that LAR must win out to keep DAL from clinching on record alone. MIN must also win weeks 16-18 to prevent them from clinching on record alone.
Now with that, let’s look at our Strength of Victory tables:
For ATL:
| Team | wins | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1.0 | GB | JAX | ||
| GB | 6.0 | CAR | CHI | ||
| HOU | 7.0 | TEN | CLE | TEN | IND |
| TB | 6.0 | GB | JAX | NO | CAR |
| NO | 6.0 | NYG | |||
| NYJ | 5.0 | MIA | WAS | CLE | NE |
| CAR | 1.0 | GB | JAX | ||
| IND | 7.0 | PIT | LV | HOU | |
| CHI | 5.0 | CLE | ARI | GB | |
| NO | 6.0 | NYG |
For DAL:
| Team | wins | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | 5.0 | NO | PHI | PHI | |
| NYJ | 5.0 | MIA | WAS | CLE | NE |
| NE | 3.0 | KC | DEN | BUF | NYJ |
| LAC | 5.0 | LV | BUF | DEN | KC |
| LAR | 6.0 | WAS | NO | NYG | SF |
| NYG | 5.0 | NO | PHI | PHI | |
| CAR | 1.0 | GB | JAX | ||
| WAS | 4.0 | NYJ | SF | DAL | |
| SEA | 6.0 | PHI | TEN | PIT | ARI |
| PHI | 10.0 | SEA | NYG | ARI | NYG |
The teams that are struck through are teams that must win, so they are worth 0 wins towards SoV for their opponent. The teams in Bold are the teams that must lose, so they are worth 1 wins towards SoV for their opponent. The teams in italics have their opponent show up on another team in the SoV table. Those 2 teams will combine for a guaranteed 1 win. For ease of viewing, we will mark those with a “.”, but we count each one of those cancellations as 0.5 wins.
So now, with that said, we end up with the following:
For ATL - 57 wins:
| Team | wins | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1.0 | 0 | . | JAX | 0 | 1.5 |
| GB | 6.0 | 0 | . | 0 | . | 7.0 |
| HOU | 7.0 | TEN | CLE | TEN | . | 7.5 |
| TB | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.0 |
| NO | 6.0 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 |
| NYJ | 5.0 | MIA | WAS | CLE | NE | 5.0 |
| CAR | 1.0 | 0 | GB | JAX | 0 | 1.0 |
| IND | 7.0 | PIT | 0 | LV | . | 7.5 |
| CHI | 5.0 | CLE | ARI | 0 | . | 5.5 |
| NO | 6.0 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 |
For DAL - 60 wins:
| Team | wins | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | 5.0 | NO | . | 0 | . | 6.0 |
| NYJ | 5.0 | MIA | . | CLE | . | 6.0 |
| NE | 3.0 | KC | DEN | BUF | . | 3.5 |
| LAC | 5.0 | LV | BUF | DEN | KC | 5.0 |
| LAR | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.0 |
| NYG | 5.0 | NO | PHI | 0 | PHI | 5.0 |
| CAR | 1.0 | 0 | GB | JAX | 0 | 1.0 |
| WAS | 4.0 | 0 | . | SF | 1 | 5.5 |
| SEA | 6.0 | . | TEN | PIT | ARI | 6.5 |
| PHI | 10.0 | . | . | ARI | . | 11.5 |
The next thing we want to do is fiddle with the results from week 16 on to create the best case scenario for ATL. The results look like this.
For ATL - 65 wins:
| Team | wins | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1.0 | 0 | . | 1 | 0 | 2.5 |
| GB | 6.0 | 0 | . | 0 | . | 7.0 |
| HOU | 7.0 | TEN | 1 | 1 | . | 9.5 |
| TB | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.0 |
| NO | 6.0 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 |
| NYJ | 5.0 | MIA | 1 | CLE | 1 | 7.0 |
| CAR | 1.0 | 0 | GB | 1 | 0 | 2.0 |
| IND | 7.0 | PIT | 0 | 1 | . | 8.5 |
| CHI | 5.0 | CLE | 1 | 0 | . | 6.5 |
| NO | 6.0 | NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 |
For DAL - 61 wins:
| Team | wins | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | 5.0 | NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 |
| NYJ | 5.0 | MIA | . | CLE | . | 7.0 |
| NE | 3.0 | KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 |
| LAC | 5.0 | LV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 |
| LAR | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.0 |
| NYG | 5.0 | NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 |
| CAR | 1.0 | 0 | GB | 1 | 0 | 2.0 |
| WAS | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5.0 |
| SEA | 6.0 | . | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| PHI | 10.0 | . | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12.5 |
The 2 results we didn’t toggle in weeks 16 & 17 count the same for both teams, as they appear in both teams’ SoV tables the same way, so they are irrelevant. The same applies for MIA/NYJ week 15. Also note that the reason DAL gained a win is that CAR winning in week 17 gave ATL 2 wins, but DAL 1, so it was beneficial for ATL, but did increase DAL’s total.
This gives DAL 4 possible games they could gain on ATL: NYGx2, NE, and LV. If all of the games that could favor ATL go against them (CLE, PIT, TEN win), then both DAL & ATL would be at 65 wins, and ATL would have no way to gain any additional wins. DAL has Strength of Schedule clinched in this situation, so if NYG, NE, LV, CLE, PIT, TEN all win, DAL clinches an SoV tie, and clinches the tiebreaker over ATL.