Standings entering week 12

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 ARI 9-2 5-2  
2 GB 8-3 6-2  
3 TB 7-3 5-3 TB wins the tiebreak over DAL on Head-to-Head.
4 DAL 7-3 5-1  
5 LAR 7-3 5-2  
6 MIN 5-5 4-2 MIN wins the tiebreak over NO/SF on Conference Record (4-2 vs 4-4/4-4).
7 NO 5-5 4-4 NO wins the tiebreak over SF on Strength of Victory (29-23 vs 17-33-1).
8 SF 5-5 4-4  
9 PHI 5-6 4-3 PHI wins the tiebreak over CAR on Head-to-Head.
10 CAR 5-6 3-5  
11 WAS 4-6 4-2 WAS wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head.
12 ATL 4-6 2-5  
13 NYG 3-7 2-5 NYG wins the tiebreak over CHI/SEA on Conference Record (2-5 vs 1-4/1-5).
14 CHI 3-7 1-4 CHI wins the tiebreak over SEA on Conference Record (1-4 vs 1-5).
15 SEA 3-7 1-5  
16 DETk 0-9-1 0-6  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TEN 8-3 5-2  
2 BAL 7-3 4-3  
3 NE 7-4 5-1 NE wins the tiebreak over KC on Conference Record (5-1 vs 2-4).
4 KC 7-4 2-4  
5 CIN 6-4 4-2 BUF drops out of the tiebreak with CIN/LAC on Conference Record (5-4 vs 4-2). CIN wins the tiebreak over LAC on Common Games (4-1 vs 3-2).
6 LAC 6-4 4-2 LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (4-2 vs 5-4).
7 BUF 6-4 5-4  
8 PIT 5-4-1 3-3  
9 IND 6-5 5-3 IND wins the tiebreak over CLE on Conference Record (5-3 vs 3-4).
10 CLE 6-5 3-4  
11 LV 5-5 4-3 LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
12 DEN 5-5 2-4  
13 MIA 4-7 4-5  
14 HOU 2-8 2-5 HOU wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head (1-0). HOU wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Conference Record (2-5 vs 2-6).
15 JAX 2-8 2-5 JAX wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Conference Record (2-5 vs 2-6).
16 NYJ 2-8 2-6  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DAL 7-3 2-0  
2 PHI 5-6 0-1  
3 WAS 4-6 1-0  
4 NYG 3-7 0-2  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 GB 8-3 2-1  
2 MIN 5-5 2-0  
3 CHI 3-7 1-1  
4 DETk 0-9-1 0-3  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 7-3 1-1  
2 NO 5-5 1-2  
3 CAR 5-6 2-0  
4 ATL 4-6 1-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 ARI 9-2 4-0  
2 LAR 7-3 1-2  
3 SF 5-5 1-3  
4 SEA 3-7 1-2  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 7-4 2-1  
2 BUF 6-4 3-0  
3 MIA 4-7 2-2  
4 NYJ 2-8 0-4  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BAL 7-3 0-1  
2 CIN 6-4 2-1  
3 PIT 5-4-1 1-1  
4 CLE 6-5 1-1  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TEN 8-3 3-1  
2 IND 6-5 2-2  
3 HOU 2-8 2-1 HOU wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4 JAX 2-8 0-3  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KC 7-4 1-1  
2 LAC 6-4 2-0  
3 LV 5-5 1-2 LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4 DEN 5-5 0-1  

k: Team has been knocked out of division title contention

Scenarios

NFC Elimination Scenarios

DET is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DET loss + ATL win + CAR win + NO win + WAS win + PHI win
OR 2) DET loss + ATL win + CAR win + NO win + WAS win + MIN win
OR 3) DET loss + ATL win + CAR win + NO tie + WAS win + PHI win + SF win
OR 4) DET loss + ATL win + CAR tie + NO win + WAS win + PHI win + SF win
OR 5) DET loss + ATL tie + CAR win + NO win + WAS win + PHI win + SF win

 

 

AFC Elimination Scenarios

NYJ is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) NYJ loss + NE win/tie
OR 2) NYJ loss + BUF win/tie
OR 3) NYJ tie + NE win + BUF win/tie
OR 4) NYJ tie + NE tie + BUF win

 

HOU is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) HOU loss + TEN win/tie
OR 2) HOU tie + TEN win

 

JAX is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) JAX loss + TEN win/tie
OR 2) JAX tie + TEN win

 

Possible Seeds

With the exception of DET, who has been eliminated from division title contention, all seeds are available to all other teams, even HOU, JAX, and NYJ, and DET can still get the 5 seed.

Fun possibilities:

DET gets the 5 seed

NYJ gets the 1 seed

HOU gets the 1 seed

JAX gets the 1 seed

Team Control

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
ARI(2) TEN

Teams that control the 2 seed:
DAL(1) GB NE(3) BAL(3) CIN(3)

Teams that control the 3 seed:
TB(4) LAC(4)

Teams that control the 4 seed:
BUF(3) PIT(3) CLE(6) KC DEN

Teams that control the 5 seed:
LAR

Teams that control the 6 seed:
MIN(7)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
NO(4) SF IND LV(4)

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
PHI WAS NYG CHI DET CAR(4) ATL(7) SEA
MIA NYJ HOU JAX

Want to discuss the playoff picture? Head to the corresponding reddit post