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Standings Entering Week 12

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 9-1 6-0  
2 DET 8-2 5-1  
3 SF 7-3 5-1  
4 NO 5-5 2-3  
5 DAL 7-3 4-3  
6 SEA 6-4 5-2  
7 MIN 6-5 6-2  
8 GB 4-6 3-3 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (1-0). GB wins the tiebreak over ATL/LAR on Conference Record (3-3 vs 3-4/3-4).
9 LAR 4-6 3-4 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (1-0). LAR wins the tiebreak over ATL on Strength of Victory (19-22 vs 15-25).
10 ATL 4-6 3-4 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
11 TB 4-6 3-4  
12 WAS 4-7 2-6  
13 NYG 3-8 3-4 NYG wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (3-4 vs 2-5).
14 CHI 3-8 2-5  
15 ARI 2-9 2-5  
16 CAR 1-9 0-7  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BAL 8-3 5-3  
2 KC 7-3 5-1 KC wins the tiebreak over MIA/JAX on Head-to-Head Sweep.
3 JAX 7-3 5-2 JAX wins the tiebreak over MIA on Strength of Victory (34-37 vs 22-50).
4 MIA 7-3 5-2  
5 CLE 7-3 5-2  
6 HOU 6-4 3-2 HOU wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
7 PIT 6-4 4-3  
8 BUF 6-5 3-5  
9 IND 5-5 4-3 IND wins the tiebreak over DEN/CIN on Conference Record (4-3 vs 2-4/1-5).
10 DEN 5-5 2-4 DEN wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (2-4 vs 1-5).
11 CIN 5-5 1-5  
12 LV 5-6 3-4  
13 LAC 4-6 2-3 LAC wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Head-to-Head.
14 NYJ 4-6 2-5  
15 TEN 3-7 2-5  
16 NE 2-8 2-4  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 9-1 3-0  
2 DAL 7-3 2-1  
3 WAS 4-7 0-4  
4 NYG 3-8 2-2  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DET 8-2 2-0  
2 MIN 6-5 2-0  
3 GB 4-6 1-2  
4 CHI 3-8 0-3  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NO 5-5 1-1  
2 ATL 4-6 2-0 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 TB 4-6 1-1  
4 CAR 1-9 0-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SF 7-3 2-0  
2 SEA 6-4 1-2  
3 LAR 4-6 3-1  
4 ARI 2-9 0-3  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 MIA 7-3 2-1  
2 BUF 6-5 2-2  
3 NYJ 4-6 1-2  
4 NE 2-8 2-2  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BAL 8-3 3-2  
2 CLE 7-3 3-2  
3 PIT 6-4 2-1  
4 CIN 5-5 0-3  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAX 7-3 3-1  
2 HOU 6-4 1-1  
3 IND 5-5 2-2  
4 TEN 3-7 0-2  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KC 7-3 2-1  
2 DEN 5-5 1-2  
3 LV 5-6 1-1  
4 LAC 4-6 1-1  

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 12

NFC

NYG is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NYG loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win/tie
OR 3) DAL win
OR 4) DAL tie + DET win
OR 5) DAL tie + DET tie + MIN win
OR 6) DET win + MIN win

 

NYG is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) NYG loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win/tie
OR 3) DAL win

 

WAS is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) WAS loss
OR 2) WAS tie + PHI tie
OR 3) PHI win

 

WAS is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) WAS loss
OR 2) WAS tie + PHI tie
OR 3) PHI win

 

CHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CHI loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win/tie
OR 3) DET win
OR 4) DET tie + DAL win

 

CHI is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:
         1) CHI loss/tie
OR 2) DET win

 

ARI is knocked out of NFC West title contention with:
         1) ARI loss/tie

 

AFC

NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NE loss
OR 2) NE tie + BAL win
OR 3) NE tie + BAL tie + JAX win
OR 4) NE tie + BAL tie + MIA win
OR 5) NE tie + BAL tie + JAX tie + CLE win
OR 6) NE tie + BAL tie + JAX tie + CLE tie + MIA tie + BUF win + KC win + CIN win
OR 7) NE tie + BAL tie + CLE win + MIA tie + BUF win + KC win + CIN win
OR 8) NE tie + BAL tie + CLE win + MIA tie + BUF win + KC win + TEN win + IND win
OR 9) NE tie + JAX win + CLE win
OR 10) NE tie + JAX win + MIA win
OR 11) NE tie + JAX win + CLE tie + MIA tie + BUF win + CIN win + KC win
OR 12) NE tie + JAX tie + CLE win + MIA win
OR 13) NE tie + JAX tie + CLE win + MIA tie + BUF win + KC win + CIN win
OR 14) NE tie + JAX tie + CLE tie + MIA win + BUF win + KC win + CIN win
OR 15) NE tie + CLE win + MIA win + BUF win + KC win + CIN win
OR 16) NE tie + CLE win + MIA win + BUF win + KC win + TEN win + IND win

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 12

We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to list simulated likelihood of the team getting that seed. However, I’m not in the business of judging teams and making predictions, so these are based on 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
PHI 66% 17% 5% <1% 10% 1% <1% <1%
DET 19% 45% 25% 2% 2% 4% 2% 1%
SF 8% 22% 39% 2% 7% 11% 8% 4%
NO <1% 1% 4% 49% <1% 1% 3% 42%
DAL 6% 4% 2% <1% 58% 18% 9% 4%
SEA 2% 7% 18% 1% 11% 23% 21% 17%
MIN <1% 4% 4% 1% 11% 30% 26% 24%
GB <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 10% 83%
LAR <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 4% 9% 85%
ATL <1% <1% 1% 25% <1% <1% 2% 72%
TB <1% <1% <1% 20% <1% 1% 4% 74%
WAS <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 95%
NYG <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
CHI <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
ARI     <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
CAR     <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
BAL 27% 15% 9% 4% 24% 11% 5% 5%
KC 19% 23% 21% 19% 1% 3% 3% 10%
JAX 17% 18% 18% 14% 7% 8% 7% 11%
MIA 15% 19% 21% 22% 2% 4% 5% 11%
CLE 15% 9% 5% 2% 31% 15% 9% 13%
HOU 3% 7% 9% 9% 8% 11% 12% 41%
PIT 3% 4% 3% 2% 13% 18% 15% 42%
BUF <1% 3% 6% 11% 2% 5% 9% 64%
IND <1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 8% 10% 73%
DEN <1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 5% 8% 77%
CIN <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 7% 9% 79%
LV <1% <1% 1% 5% <1% 2% 4% 87%
LAC <1% <1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 92%
NYJ <1% <1% 1% 2% <1% 1% 2% 94%
TEN <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
NE <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 12

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
DET JAX(4)

Teams that control the 3 seed:
SF SEA MIA(4) CLE

Teams that control the 4 seed:
NO ATL TB HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL BAL PIT(4)

Teams that control the 6 seed:
None!

Teams that control the 7 seed:
MIN(3) IND(E)

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
WAS NYG GB CHI CAR LAR ARI
BUF NYJ(4) NE CIN(4) TEN LV LAC DEN

 

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