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Standings Entering Week 12

                                                                         
        NFCNFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIPHI 9-1 6-0  
2 DETDET 8-2 5-1  
3 SFSF 7-3 5-1  
4 NONO 5-5 2-3  
5 DALDAL 7-3 4-3  
6 SEASEA 6-4 5-2  
7 MINMIN 6-5 6-2  
8 GBGB 4-6 3-3 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (1-0). GB wins the tiebreak over ATL/LAR on Conference Record (3-3 vs 3-4/3-4).
9 LARLAR 4-6 3-4 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (1-0). LAR wins the tiebreak over ATL on Strength of Victory (19-22 vs 15-25).
10 ATLATL 4-6 3-4 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
11 TBTB 4-6 3-4  
12 WASWAS 4-7 2-6  
13 NYGNYG 3-8 3-4 NYG wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (3-4 vs 2-5).
14 CHICHI 3-8 2-5  
15 ARIARI 2-9 2-5  
16 CARCAR 1-9 0-7  
         
        AFCAFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BALBAL 8-3 5-3  
2 KCKC 7-3 5-1 KC wins the tiebreak over MIA/JAX on Head-to-Head Sweep.
3 JAXJAX 7-3 5-2 JAX wins the tiebreak over MIA on Strength of Victory (34-37 vs 22-50).
4 MIAMIA 7-3 5-2  
5 CLECLE 7-3 5-2  
6 HOUHOU 6-4 3-2 HOU wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
7 PITPIT 6-4 4-3  
8 BUFBUF 6-5 3-5  
9 INDIND 5-5 4-3 IND wins the tiebreak over DEN/CIN on Conference Record (4-3 vs 2-4/1-5).
10 DENDEN 5-5 2-4 DEN wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (2-4 vs 1-5).
11 CINCIN 5-5 1-5  
12 LVLV 5-6 3-4  
13 LACLAC 4-6 2-3 LAC wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Head-to-Head.
14 NYJNYJ 4-6 2-5  
15 TENTEN 3-7 2-5  
16 NENE 2-8 2-4  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIPHI 9-1 3-0  
2 DALDAL 7-3 2-1  
3 WASWAS 4-7 0-4  
4 NYGNYG 3-8 2-2  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DETDET 8-2 2-0  
2 MINMIN 6-5 2-0  
3 GBGB 4-6 1-2  
4 CHICHI 3-8 0-3  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NONO 5-5 1-1  
2 ATLATL 4-6 2-0 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 TBTB 4-6 1-1  
4 CARCAR 1-9 0-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SFSF 7-3 2-0  
2 SEASEA 6-4 1-2  
3 LARLAR 4-6 3-1  
4 ARIARI 2-9 0-3  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 MIAMIA 7-3 2-1  
2 BUFBUF 6-5 2-2  
3 NYJNYJ 4-6 1-2  
4 NENE 2-8 2-2  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BALBAL 8-3 3-2  
2 CLECLE 7-3 3-2  
3 PITPIT 6-4 2-1  
4 CINCIN 5-5 0-3  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAXJAX 7-3 3-1  
2 HOUHOU 6-4 1-1  
3 INDIND 5-5 2-2  
4 TENTEN 3-7 0-2  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCKC 7-3 2-1  
2 DENDEN 5-5 1-2  
3 LVLV 5-6 1-1  
4 LACLAC 4-6 1-1  

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 12

NFCNFC

NYGNYG is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NYGNYG loss/tie
OR 2) PHIPHI win/tie
OR 3) DALDAL win
OR 4) DALDAL tie + DETDET win
OR 5) DALDAL tie + DETDET tie + MINMIN win
OR 6) DETDET win + MINMIN win

 

NYGNYG is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) NYGNYG loss/tie
OR 2) PHIPHI win/tie
OR 3) DALDAL win

 

WASWAS is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) WASWAS loss
OR 2) WASWAS tie + PHIPHI tie
OR 3) PHIPHI win

 

WASWAS is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) WASWAS loss
OR 2) WASWAS tie + PHIPHI tie
OR 3) PHIPHI win

 

CHICHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CHICHI loss/tie
OR 2) PHIPHI win/tie
OR 3) DETDET win
OR 4) DETDET tie + DALDAL win

 

CHICHI is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:
         1) CHICHI loss/tie
OR 2) DETDET win

 

ARIARI is knocked out of NFC West title contention with:
         1) ARIARI loss/tie

 

AFCAFC

NENE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NENE loss
OR 2) NENE tie + BALBAL win
OR 3) NENE tie + BALBAL tie + JAXJAX win
OR 4) NENE tie + BALBAL tie + MIAMIA win
OR 5) NENE tie + BALBAL tie + JAXJAX tie + CLECLE win
OR 6) NENE tie + BALBAL tie + JAXJAX tie + CLECLE tie + MIAMIA tie + BUFBUF win + KCKC win + CINCIN win
OR 7) NENE tie + BALBAL tie + CLECLE win + MIAMIA tie + BUFBUF win + KCKC win + CINCIN win
OR 8) NENE tie + BALBAL tie + CLECLE win + MIAMIA tie + BUFBUF win + KCKC win + TENTEN win + INDIND win
OR 9) NENE tie + JAXJAX win + CLECLE win
OR 10) NENE tie + JAXJAX win + MIAMIA win
OR 11) NENE tie + JAXJAX win + CLECLE tie + MIAMIA tie + BUFBUF win + CINCIN win + KCKC win
OR 12) NENE tie + JAXJAX tie + CLECLE win + MIAMIA win
OR 13) NENE tie + JAXJAX tie + CLECLE win + MIAMIA tie + BUFBUF win + KCKC win + CINCIN win
OR 14) NENE tie + JAXJAX tie + CLECLE tie + MIAMIA win + BUFBUF win + KCKC win + CINCIN win
OR 15) NENE tie + CLECLE win + MIAMIA win + BUFBUF win + KCKC win + CINCIN win
OR 16) NENE tie + CLECLE win + MIAMIA win + BUFBUF win + KCKC win + TENTEN win + INDIND win

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 12

We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to list simulated likelihood of the team getting that seed. However, I’m not in the business of judging teams and making predictions, so these are based on 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFCNFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
PHIPHI 66% 17% 5% <1% 10% 1% <1% <1%
DETDET 19% 45% 25% 2% 2% 4% 2% 1%
SFSF 8% 22% 39% 2% 7% 11% 8% 4%
NONO <1% 1% 4% 49% <1% 1% 3% 42%
DALDAL 6% 4% 2% <1% 58% 18% 9% 4%
SEASEA 2% 7% 18% 1% 11% 23% 21% 17%
MINMIN <1% 4% 4% 1% 11% 30% 26% 24%
GBGB <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 10% 83%
LARLAR <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 4% 9% 85%
ATLATL <1% <1% 1% 25% <1% <1% 2% 72%
TBTB <1% <1% <1% 20% <1% 1% 4% 74%
WASWAS <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 95%
NYGNYG <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
CHICHI <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
ARIARI     <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
CARCAR     <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

AFCAFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
BALBAL 27% 15% 9% 4% 24% 11% 5% 5%
KCKC 19% 23% 21% 19% 1% 3% 3% 10%
JAXJAX 17% 18% 18% 14% 7% 8% 7% 11%
MIAMIA 15% 19% 21% 22% 2% 4% 5% 11%
CLECLE 15% 9% 5% 2% 31% 15% 9% 13%
HOUHOU 3% 7% 9% 9% 8% 11% 12% 41%
PITPIT 3% 4% 3% 2% 13% 18% 15% 42%
BUFBUF <1% 3% 6% 11% 2% 5% 9% 64%
INDIND <1% 1% 2% 2% 4% 8% 10% 73%
DENDEN <1% 1% 2% 4% 3% 5% 8% 77%
CINCIN <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 7% 9% 79%
LVLV <1% <1% 1% 5% <1% 2% 4% 87%
LACLAC <1% <1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 92%
NYJNYJ <1% <1% 1% 2% <1% 1% 2% 94%
TENTEN <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
NENE <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 12

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHIPHI KCKC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
DETDET JAXJAX(4)

Teams that control the 3 seed:
SFSF SEASEA MIAMIA(4) CLECLE

Teams that control the 4 seed:
NONO ATLATL TBTB HOUHOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
DALDAL BALBAL PITPIT(4)

Teams that control the 6 seed:
None!

Teams that control the 7 seed:
MINMIN(3) INDIND(E)

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
WASWAS NYGNYG GBGB CHICHI CARCAR LARLAR ARIARI
BUFBUF NYJNYJ(4) NENE CINCIN(4) TENTEN LVLV LACLAC DENDEN

 

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