Playoff Picture Entering Week 13 2023

• We have a mailbag now!
• Standings Entering Week 13
• Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 13
  • NFC
  • AFC
• Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 13
  • NFC
  • AFC
• Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 13
  • NFC
  • AFC
• Seed Control Entering Week 13
• Contact Us

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Standings Entering Week 13

• Conference Standings
• Division Standings

	NFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	PHI	10-1	6-0
2	SF	8-3	6-1	SF wins the tiebreak over DET on Conference Record (6-1 vs 5-2).
3	DET	8-3	5-2
4	ATL	5-6	4-4	ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
5	DAL	8-3	5-3
6	SEA	6-5	5-3
7	MIN	6-6	6-3
8	GB	5-6	4-3	GB wins the tiebreak over NO/LAR on Head-to-Head Sweep.
9	LAR	5-6	4-4	LAR wins the tiebreak over NO on Conference Record (4-4 vs 2-4).
10	NO	5-6	2-4
11	TB	4-7	3-4
12	NYGk	4-8	3-4	NYG wins the tiebreak over WAS on Head-to-Head (2-0). NYG wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (3-4 vs 3-5).
13	CHI	4-8	3-5	CHI wins the tiebreak over WAS on Head-to-Head.
14	WASk	4-8	2-7
15	ARIk	2-10	2-6
16	CAR	1-10	0-7
	AFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	BAL	9-3	6-3
2	KC	8-3	6-1	KC wins the tiebreak over MIA/JAX on Head-to-Head Sweep.
3	JAX	8-3	6-2	JAX wins the tiebreak over MIA on Strength of Victory (45-44 vs 28-62).
4	MIA	8-3	6-2
5	PIT	7-4	5-3	PIT wins the tiebreak over CLE on Division Record (3-1 vs 3-2).
6	CLE	7-4	5-3
7	IND	6-5	4-3	IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). IND wins the tiebreak over DEN on Conference Record (4-3 vs 3-4).
8	HOU	6-5	3-3	HOU wins the tiebreak over DEN on Conference Record (3-3 vs 3-4).
9	DEN	6-5	3-4
10	BUF	6-6	3-5
11	CIN	5-6	1-6
12	LV	5-7	3-5
13	LAC	4-7	2-4	LAC wins the tiebreak over TEN/NYJ on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-5/2-6).
14	TEN	4-7	2-5	TEN wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Conference Record (2-5 vs 2-6).
15	NYJ	4-7	2-6
16	NE	2-9	2-4

NFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PHI	10-1	3-0
2	DAL	8-3	3-1
3	NYGk	4-8	2-2	NYG wins the tiebreak over WAS on Head-to-Head (2-0).
4	WASk	4-8	0-5
NFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	DET	8-3	2-1
2	MIN	6-6	2-1
3	GB	5-6	2-2
4	CHI	4-8	1-3
NFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	ATL	5-6	3-0	ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2	NO	5-6	1-2
3	TB	4-7	1-1
4	CAR	1-10	0-2
NFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	SF	8-3	3-0
2	SEA	6-5	1-3
3	LAR	5-6	4-1
4	ARIk	2-10	0-4
AFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	MIA	8-3	3-1
2	BUF	6-6	2-2
3	NYJ	4-7	1-3
4	NE	2-9	2-2
AFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	BAL	9-3	3-2
2	PIT	7-4	3-1	PIT wins the tiebreak over CLE on Division Record (3-1 vs 3-2).
3	CLE	7-4	3-2
4	CIN	5-6	0-4
AFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	JAX	8-3	4-1
2	IND	6-5	2-2	IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3	HOU	6-5	1-2
4	TEN	4-7	0-2
AFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	KC	8-3	3-1
2	DEN	6-5	1-2
3	LV	5-7	1-2
4	LAC	4-7	1-1

^k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 

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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 13

NFC

PHI clinches a playoff berth with:

	1)	PHI win + LAR loss/tie
OR	2)	PHI win + GB loss/tie + DET loss
OR	3)	PHI tie + GB loss/tie + LAR loss + NO loss/tie
OR	4)	PHI tie + GB loss/tie + LAR loss + ATL loss/tie

 

AFC

No AFC clinching scenarios this week

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 13

NFC

CAR is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:

1)

CAR loss

 

ARI is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	ARI loss + SEA win/tie + GB win/tie
OR	2)	ARI loss + SEA win/tie + LAR win
OR	3)	ARI loss + SEA win/tie + ATL win + TB win/tie
OR	4)	ARI loss + SEA win/tie + ATL tie + TB win
OR	5)	ARI loss + LAR win + GB win/tie
OR	6)	ARI loss + LAR win + NO win + ATL win + TB win/tie
OR	7)	ARI loss + LAR win + NO win + ATL tie + TB win
OR	8)	ARI loss + LAR win + NO tie + ATL win + TB win
OR	9)	ARI tie + SEA win + GB win

 

GB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	GB loss + PHI win/tie
OR	2)	GB tie + PHI win

 

ATL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	ATL loss + PHI win/tie
OR	2)	ATL tie + PHI win

 

NO is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	NO loss + PHI win/tie
OR	2)	NO loss + DAL win + CLE win + LAC win + WAS win + TEN win
OR	3)	NO loss + DAL win + CLE win + LAC win + 1.5 combined wins from (WAS, TEN) + ATL loss/tie
OR	4)	NO loss + DAL win + CLE win + LAC tie + WAS win + ATL loss + TEN win
OR	5)	NO tie + PHI win

The italicized portions are for NO being unable to simultaneously surpass DET, DAL, and at least tie SEA in Strength of Victory.

 

TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	TB loss/tie
OR	2)	PHI win/tie

 

LAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	LAR loss + PHI win/tie
OR	2)	LAR tie + PHI win

 

AFC

NE is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:

	1)	NE loss/tie
OR	2)	MIA win/tie

 

NE is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	NE loss + PIT win/tie + IND win/tie + CLE win/tie
OR	2)	NE loss + PIT win/tie + IND win/tie + CIN win + HOU win
OR	3)	NE loss + PIT win/tie + IND win + CIN tie + HOU win
OR	4)	NE loss + PIT win/tie + IND win + HOU/ DEN tie
OR	5)	NE loss + PIT win/tie + IND tie + CIN win/tie + HOU/ DEN tie

 

NYJ is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:

1)

NYJ loss + MIA win

 

NYJ is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	NYJ loss
OR	2)	NYJ tie + MIA win
OR	3)	NYJ tie + JAX win
OR	4)	NYJ tie + MIA tie + JAX tie

 

TEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	TEN loss + JAX win/tie
OR	2)	TEN loss + MIA win/tie
OR	3)	TEN loss + CLE win + KC win + PIT win/tie
OR	4)	TEN tie + JAX win + MIA win
OR	5)	TEN tie + JAX win + HOU loss
OR	6)	TEN tie + JAX tie + MIA win + HOU loss

 

LAC is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:

	1)	LAC loss + JAX win/tie
OR	2)	LAC loss + MIA win/tie
OR	3)	LAC loss + IND win + KC win + CLE win + PIT win
OR	4)	LAC tie + JAX win + MIA win
OR	5)	LAC tie + JAX win + PIT win/tie + CLE win/tie + TEN loss
OR	6)	LAC tie + JAX win + PIT win/tie + CLE win/tie + TEN tie + HOU loss
OR	7)	LAC tie + JAX tie + MIA win + PIT win/tie + CLE win/tie + TEN loss
OR	8)	LAC tie + JAX tie + MIA win + PIT win/tie + CLE win/tie + TEN tie + HOU loss

 

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Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 13

We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
PHI	78%	10%	2%	<1%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
SF	10%	46%	35%	1%	2%	5%	2%	1%
DET	5%	37%	47%	2%	1%	4%	3%	1%
ATL	<1%	<1%	1%	48%	<1%	1%	2%	47%
DAL	7%	3%	1%	<1%	76%	10%	3%	1%
SEA	<1%	3%	4%	<1%	8%	31%	23%	32%
MIN	<1%	1%	6%	1%	2%	24%	25%	42%
GB	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	13%	17%	67%
LAR	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	10%	15%	71%
NO	<1%	<1%	2%	35%	<1%	1%	3%	58%
TB	<1%	<1%	<1%	13%	<1%	1%	2%	84%
NYG					<1%	<1%	2%	97%
CHI		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	99%
WAS					<1%	<1%	1%	99%
ARI						<1%	<1%	>99%
CAR				<1%		<1%	<1%	>99%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

	1 seed	2 seed	3 seed	4 seed	5 seed	6 seed	7 seed	Miss Playoffs
BAL	32%	20%	13%	6%	18%	7%	2%	1%
KC	23%	26%	23%	20%	1%	2%	2%	2%
JAX	20%	21%	24%	24%	2%	3%	3%	3%
MIA	19%	21%	25%	29%	1%	1%	2%	3%
PIT	3%	5%	5%	4%	24%	22%	15%	22%
CLE	3%	4%	3%	2%	28%	22%	15%	23%
IND	<1%	1%	2%	2%	8%	12%	16%	58%
HOU	<1%	1%	2%	2%	9%	12%	14%	60%
DEN	<1%	1%	2%	3%	7%	11%	14%	62%
BUF	<1%	<1%	1%	5%	1%	3%	6%	84%
CIN	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	3%	5%	92%
LV	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	1%	2%	96%
LAC	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	98%
TEN	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	98%
NYJ	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	99%
NE		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%

 

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Seed Control Entering Week 13

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
SF(3) BAL(5) JAX

Teams that control the 3 seed:
DET(2) MIA

Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL NO TB PIT(5)

Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL CLE(3)

Teams that control the 6 seed:
SEA(3) HOU(4)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
MIN IND

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
NYG WAS GB CHI CAR LAR ARI
BUF NYJ NE CIN TEN DEN LV LAC

 

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