I have been asked several times this week why PIT hasn’t already clinched a playoff berth, so I figured I’d address it in detail here.

Basic Explanation

In order for PIT to miss the playoffs, all of the following must occur

1) PIT must lose out
2) CLE must defeat BAL or else reach at least 11.5 wins
3) LV must win out
4) IND must win weeks 15-17
5) MIA must win weeks 14, 15, and 17
6) BUF must get at least 1 win from weeks 15 & 16
7) TEN must win at least 11.5 games OR win 11 games with at least 1.5 of those coming in weeks 14 & 17
8) MIA must clinch Strength of Victory over PIT

 

This leads to the following for week 14:

PIT clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) PIT win/tie
OR 2) LV loss/tie
OR 3) MIA loss/tie
OR 4) TEN loss

 

Detailed Explanation

Part 1: PIT must lose out

First off, PIT has 11 wins. Here is the standings, only including teams that can finish with 11 or more wins:

Seed     Team     Record     Conference Record  
1 PIT 11-1 8-0
2 KC 11-1 9-1
3 BUF 9-3 6-2
4 TEN 8-4 6-4
5 CLE 9-3 6-3
6 MIA 8-4 5-3
7 IND 8-4 4-4
8 LV 7-5 5-3
9 BAL 7-5 4-5

As we see, there are only 7 teams that can finish with more than 11 wins, so that means that PIT (or indeed any team) who reaches 11.5 or more wins will clinch a playoff berth on record alone. This means that a PIT win/tie will clinch for PIT, so to miss the playoffs, PIT must lose out.

Part 2: BAL result doesn’t matter

Let’s take a look at the AFC North alone. PIT is 2-0 vs BAL and given that PIT lost out in this scenario, 1-1 vs CLE. CLE has a loss to PIT & BAL, and BAL has 2 losses to PIT. In a 3-way tie at 11-5, PIT would win the record-among-tied-teams tiebreaker and win the division. In a 2-way tie at 11-5 with BAL, PIT has the head-to-head sweep. This means that no matter what, BAL is guaranteed to be behind PIT, so BAL is irrelevant to PIT’s scenarios.

Part 3: CLE must win AFC North

In the scenario in question, PIT loses to CLE in week 17, so PIT and CLE split the series, PIT is 4-2 in division, and CLE is 3-2 in division with 10 wins (including the victory over PIT). If BAL defeats/ties CLE, CLE will have 2.5 or more division losses, and PIT will win the division tiebreaker, so CLE must win at least 11.5 games. If CLE defeats BAL, both PIT & CLE will be at 11 wins, but they will be tied at 4-2 in division, and the tiebreak will come down to common games. Assuming CLE loses their other 2 games so both are at 11 wins, CLE has the common games tiebreaker over PIT (10-2 vs 9-3). All of this combines to say that for PIT to avoid clinching the division, CLE must defeat BAL or else reach at least 11.5 wins.

Part 4: LV must win out

Now that we’ve got the AFC North out of the way, let’s revisit the standings without the AFC North or teams with more than 5 losses:

Seed     Team     Record     Conference Record  
1 KC 11-1 9-1
2 CLE (division)  
3 BUF 10-3 7-2
4 IND 9-4 5-4
5 PIT 11-5 8-4
6 MIA 8-4 5-3
7 TEN 8-4 6-4
8 LV 7-5 5-3

We can see here that LV already has 5 losses, and they are the 8 seed. Thus, if they lose/tie, then PIT clinches a playoff berth on record alone. This means that LV must win out.

Part 5: IND and MIA must win their non-LV games

LV plays IND (week 14) and MIA (week 16). LV winning out means that both of these teams now have a 5th loss. Any remaining loss by either team clinches a playoff berth on record alone. This means that IND must win weeks 15-17 and MIA must win weeks 14, 15, and 17.

Part 6: BUF must win another game

Now let’s look at the updated standings again:

Seed     Team     Record     Conference Record  
1 KC 11-2 9-2
2 CLE (division)  
3 BUF 10-4 7-3
4 IND 11-5 7-5
5 LV 11-5 9-3
6 PIT 11-5 8-4
7 MIA 11-5 8-4
8 TEN 8-4 6-4

BUF is at 10 wins. If BUF doesn’t reach 11 wins, PIT clinches on record alone. Given that MIA has to defeat BUF in week 17 in this scenario, BUF and MIA are 1-1 against each other, and BUF is 4-1 in division, while MIA is 4-2. This means that if BUF wins/ties vs NE, then they win the division record tiebreaker at 11-5/10-4-2, and win the AFC East, leaving them out of wildcard tiebreakers. If NE defeats BUF, both MIA & BUF will be 4-2 in division, but in the 11-5 tiebreaker, BUF still wins the division tiebreaker over MIA, this time in common games (9-3 vs 8-4). Thus, no matter what, if BUF reaches 11 games (which they have to for PIT to avoid clinching on record alone), BUF will win the AFC East, leaving them out of wildcard tiebreakers. This means that the only relevant thing for BUF is BUF must get at least 1 win from weeks 15 & 16.

Part 7: TEN must win the AFC South

One more look at the standings:

Seed     Team     Record     Conference Record  
1 KC 11-2 9-2
2 CLE (division)  
3 BUF (division)  
4 IND 11-5 7-5
5 LV 11-5 9-3
6 PIT 11-5 8-4
7 MIA 11-5 8-4
8 TEN 8-4 6-4

TEN is at 8-4 here, thus TEN must get 3 wins from their final 4 games in order to prevent PIT clinching on record alone. If TEN loses week 14 vs JAX (or week 17 vs HOU, or ties both) and then wins their remaining games, given the conditioins we aleady established for IND above, TEN & IND will both be 1-1 against each other, and 4-2 in division, but IND will hold the common games tiebreaker over TEN (9-3 vs 8-4 or 7-3-2), so IND will win the division. TEN at 11-5/10-4-2 here will be 7-5 in conference with a head-to-head loss vs PIT. This means that in a 2-way tiebreaker PIT wins over TEN on head-to-head, and in a 3-way tiebreaker, assuming TEN isn’t already knocked out on head-to-head sweep, TEN would drop out on conference record (since PIT is 8-4 here). Thus, no matter what, PIT will finish ahead of TEN here, so PIT will clinch a playoff berth. However, if TEN goes 11-5/10-4-2, but with at least 1.5 of those wins coming over JAX & HOU, then TEN will win the division tiebreak against IND, and win the AFC South, which obviously prevents TEN from finishing behind PIT. Thus, to prevent PIT clinching a playoff berth, TEN must win at least 11.5 games OR win 11 games with at least 1.5 of those coming in weeks 14 & 17. This also means that a TEN loss in week 14 will clinch a playoff berth for PIT.

Part 8: KC result doesn’t matter

The last team we need to consider is KC. If KC wins/ties another game, then they win the AFC West on record alone, which obviously makes them irrelevant here. If they lose out, LV wins the division at 11-5 on division record (4-2 vs 5-1), leaving KC in the mix. With all of this done, this means we have the following possible teams for wildcards:

  Team     Record     Conference Record  
KC/LV 11-5 9-3
MIA 11-5 8-4
PIT 11-5 8-4
IND 11-5 7-5

Now, let’s start looking at tiebreakers. We have 2 possible ties for the 5 seed: KC/PIT/MIA/IND and LV/PIT/MIA/IND. In this scenario, LV is 9-3 in conference record, and if KC loses out, KC will also be 9-3 in conference record. MIA & PIT are 8-4 in conference record, and IND is 7-5 in conference record. In either tie, there is no head-to-head sweep (no team played the other 3 to even make that possible), so the next step is conference record. Given that KC/LV is 9-3, while the other 3 are worse than that, KC/LV gets the 5 seed. This means that regardless of what KC does, the AFC West will get the 5 seed, so KC is irrelevant to PIT’s scenario.

Part 9: MIA must clinch Strength of Victory over PIT

For the tiebreaker for the 6 seed, we are now looking at PIT/MIA/IND. MIA didn’t play either team, so there is no head-to-head sweep. Since PIT & MIA are 8-4 in conference record, and IND is 7-5, IND drops out of the 6 seed tiebreaker, and MIA & PIT matchup in a 2-way tie. They didn’t play each other, they are both 8-4 in conference record, and both 3-2 in common games. This takes us to Strength of Victory. Before we get into the nitty-gritty of that, let’s prove its necessity. Suppose MIA wins Strength of Victory. This means that MIA gets the 6 seed, and IND/PIT matchup for the 7 seed. Given that in this scenario, IND has defeated PIT in week 16, IND has the head-to-head tiebreaker, gets the 7 seed, and PIT is left out. Obviously, if PIT wins Strength of Victory, they get the 6 seed, so for PIT to miss the playoffs MIA must clinch Strength of Victory over PIT.

 

Week 14 Strength of Victory clinching analysis

Now for the fun part: Strength of Victory calculations. Let’s look at the Strength of Victory tables:

PIT
Team     wins     Week 14     Week 15     Week 16     Week 17  
NYG 5.0 ARI CLE BAL DAL
DEN 4.0 CAR BUF LAC LV
HOU 4.0 CHI IND CIN TEN
PHI 3.5 NO ARI DAL WAS
CLE 9.0 BAL NYG NYJ PIT
TEN 8.0 JAX DET GB HOU
BAL 7.0 CLE JAX NYG CIN
DAL 3.0 CIN SF PHI NYG
CIN 2.5 DAL PIT HOU BAL
JAX 1.0 TEN BAL CHI IND
BAL 7.0 CLE JAX NYG CIN

 

MIA
Team     wins     Week 14     Week 15     Week 16     Week 17  
JAX 1.0 TEN BAL CHI IND
SF 5.0 WAS DAL ARI SEA
NYJ 0.0 SEA LAR CLE NE
LAR 8.0 NE NYJ SEA ARI
ARI 6.0 NYG PHI SF LAR
LAC 3.0 ATL LV DEN KC
NYJ 0.0 SEA LAR CLE NE
CIN 2.5 DAL PIT HOU BAL
KC 11.0 MIA NO ATL LAC
NE 6.0 LAR MIA BUF NYJ
BUF 9.0 PIT DEN NE MIA

 

In these tables, the strikethrough is for teams that had to win (so they are worth 0 games for Strength of Victory). The bold is for teams that had to lose (so they are worth 1 game for Strength of Victory). The italics indicates a team that also appears in the SoV table for that week, so no matter what happens in that game, it will add 1 game towards SoV (for example, in week 14 LAR & NE play each other. No matter who wins that game, it will count 1 game for MIA, since MIA defeated both of them). We can effectively cancel those games out by giving 0.5 wins to both teams in the Strength of Victory table. Given all of those markings, Let’s replace everything in strikethrough/bold with numbers, and for ease of viewing, replacing the italics with a dot, which represents 0.5 wins:

PIT - 67 wins
Team     wins     Week 14     Week 15     Week 16     Week 17     Total  
NYG 5.0 ARI . . . 6.5
DEN 4.0 CAR BUF LAC 0 4.0
HOU 4.0 CHI 0 . . 5.0
PHI 3.5 NO ARI . WAS 4.0
CLE 9.0 . . NYJ 1 11.0
TEN 8.0 . DET GB . 9.0
BAL 7.0 . . . . 9.0
DAL 3.0 . SF . . 4.5
CIN 2.5 . 1 . . 5.0
JAX 1.0 . . CHI 0 2.0
BAL 7.0 CLE JAX NYG CIN 7.0

 

MIA - 60.5 wins
Team     wins     Week 14     Week 15     Week 16     Week 17     Total  
JAX 1.0 TEN BAL CHI 0 1.0
SF 5.0 WAS DAL . SEA 5.5
NYJ 0.0 SEA . CLE . 1.0
LAR 8.0 . . SEA . 9.5
ARI 6.0 NYG PHI . . 7.0
LAC 3.0 ATL 0 DEN . 3.5
NYJ 0.0 SEA LAR CLE NE 0.0
CIN 2.5 DAL 1 HOU BAL 3.5
KC 11.0 0 NO ATL . 11.5
NE 6.0 . 0 . . 7.5
BUF 9.0 1 DEN . 0 10.5

 

To clinch Strength of Victory, PIT needs the non-determined results above to total more that MIA’s.

Now, we can fiddle around with games from week 15 on that aren’t connected to the teams mentioned above in the post to get the best case scenario for MIA. The resultant tables look something like this (the bold numbers represent the forced results above):

PIT - 68 wins
Team     wins     Week 14     Week 15     Week 16     Week 17     Total  
NYG 5.0 ARI . 1 . 7.0
DEN 4.0 CAR 0 0 0 4.0
HOU 4.0 CHI 0 0 . 4.5
PHI 3.5 NO 0 . 0 4.0
CLE 9.0 . . NYJ 1 11.0
TEN 8.0 . DET GB . 9.0
BAL 7.0 . 0 0 0 7.5
DAL 3.0 . 0 . . 4.5
CIN 2.5 . 1 1 1 6.0
JAX 1.0 . 1 1 0 3.5
BAL 7.0 CLE 0 0 0 7.0

 

MIA - 74.5 wins
Team     wins     Week 14     Week 15     Week 16     Week 17     Total  
JAX 1.0 TEN 1 1 0 3.0
SF 5.0 WAS 1 . 1 7.5
NYJ 0.0 SEA 1 CLE 1 2.0
LAR 8.0 . 0 1 . 10.0
ARI 6.0 NYG 1 . . 8.0
LAC 3.0 ATL 0 1 . 4.5
NYJ 0.0 SEA 1 CLE 1 2.0
CIN 2.5 DAL 1 1 1 5.5
KC 11.0 0 1 1 . 13.5
NE 6.0 . 0 . 0 7.0
BUF 9.0 1 1 . 0 11.5

 

What we have left here is 8 possible wins for PIT. However, the are only down by 6.5. If we can’t increase MIA’s lead any more, PIT could clinch SoV this week. However, we need to consider a couple of things.

First, If BAL win/ties, CLE has to reach 11.5 wins, which means that if BAL wins (worst case scenario for MIA), CLE must get 1.5 wins over the remainder of their last 2 games. The NYJ/CLE game plays a pretty big role in the remaining games. However if we let CLE win week 15 (doesn’t affect either team’s SoV) and tie week 16, given that NYJ counts twice for MIA, this adds an extra 0.5 to MIA’s lead (PIT gets +0.5 for the CLE tie, but MIA gets +1.0 for the NYJ tie twice). Now, that increases MIA’s lead by 0.5 (7 games), and removes one free game for PIT, (So they’re down to 7 possible added wins)

Second, If TEN reaches 11.5 wins, they win the AFC South regardless which game they might tie, and we established earlier that a TEN loss week 14 clinches a berth for PIT without even reaching SoV. Thus, we only consider TEN win/tie possibilities here. TEN/HOU week 17 doesn’t impact either team’s SoV, so let’s let TEN win that one. If TEN ties JAX, that gives MIA an extra 0.5 wins, which when combined with the CLE logic, increases MIA’s lead to 7.5 with only 7 games for PIT to gain, so PIT can’t clinch Strength of Victory. If TEN defeats JAX, then TEN can go 1-0-1 in weeks 15 & 16, giving PIT only 1.5 wins for the 2 TEN games. With the CLE logic from CLE, This puts PIT down 5.5 with only 5 more games to clinch, so PIT can’t clinch Strength of Victory over MIA in week 14. However, given this very narrow window, it’s almost certain that even if PIT managed not to clinch in week 14, PIT would at least have a Strength of Victory clinching scenario in week 15.

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