With only 2 weeks to go, the playoff picture is becoming increasingly clear. With that said, we have at least one clear path for any team that has not yet clinched and is not yet eliminated to make the playoffs. This post is here to show at least one way for each team to make the playoffs. Note that the scenarios listed here are not exhaustive - there may be other ways for these teams to reach the playoffs. The scenarios listed here are the simplest ways (or at least a subset of the simplest ways). As such they will exclude ties.

WASWAS - 2 Options

Option 1

  • WAS wins out

Option 2

  • WAS wins a game
  • NYG loses a game

Notes:
WAS win knocks out PHI on record, and DAL cannot win a tiebreaker with WAS due to the sweep and DAL’s bad division record. At that point, WAS just has to get past NYG. It will require winning outright, as a 2-way tie goes to NYG on their sweep of WAS.

NYGNYG - 2 Options

Option 1

  • NYG wins out
  • WAS loses a game

Option 2

  • NYG wins week 17
  • PHI loses week 16
  • WAS loses out

Notes:
NYG has the head-to-head sweep against WAS, so they have a bit of a buffer. However, their bad record makes the combined PHI/WAS and PHI/DAL games difficult to keep everyone to 6-10 or worse.

DALDAL - 1 Option

Only Option

  • DAL wins out
  • WAS loses out

Notes:
DAL was swept by WAS, and has no path to use a 3rd team to get past them, so DAL would have to clinch the division outright. NYG & PHI don’t matter because DAL will deliver them each a loss in the process of winning out.

PHIPHI - 1 Option

Only Option

  • PHI wins out
  • WAS loses week 16
  • NYG loses a game

Notes:
Since we’re not considering ties in this post, this is just a basic “win outright” option by having PHI win out and have WAS & NYG reach 10 losses (PHI winning out would give WAS their 9th loss and DAL their 10th).

LARLAR - 3 Options

Option 1

  • LAR wins a game

Option 2

  • CHI loses a game

Option 3

  • ARI wins week 16

Notes:
The only way LAR misses is if they lose out, CHI wins out, and ARI goes exactly 1-1. This puts ARI ahead of LAR in the division on division record, and ARI loses the tiebreaker to CHI on common games for the 6 seed. ARI would then get the 7 seed over LAR. However, LAR plays ARI in week 17, so LAR losing out gives ARI that one 1 win. That means any result other than ARI loss in week 16 prevents ARI covering LAR, and gives LAR the tiebreak over CHI on head-to-head.

TBTB - 3 Options

Option 1

  • TB wins a game

Option 2

  • CHI loses a game

Option 3

  • ARI loses out

Notes:
TB cannot win a tiebreaker against anyone who can tie them in record, so they only make the playoffs by winning on record alone.

ARIARI - 5 Options

Option 1

  • ARI wins out

Option 2

  • ARI wins week 17
  • LAR loses week 16

Option 3

  • ARI wins a game
  • CHI loses a game

Option 4

  • ARI wins a game
  • TB loses out

Option 5

  • CHI loses out
  • MIN loses a game

Notes:
Options 1, 3, and 5 put ARI in on record alone. Option 2 puts ARI ahead of LAR on division record. Option 4 puts ARI ahead of TB on conference record.

CHICHI - 3 Options

Option 1

  • CHI wins out
  • ARI loses a game

Option 2

  • CHI wins out
  • TB loses out

Option 3

  • CHI wins a game
  • ARI loses out
  • MIN loses a game

Notes:
In a tie with ARI, CHI will clinch on common games over ARI (with one exception that would result in CHI clinching on conference record instead). That means a tie with ARI gets CHI past them. CHI has a head-to-head victory over TB as well as a better conference record, so a tie vs TB goes to CHI as well. In Option 3, MIN will finish ahead of CHI on division record, so they need to lose a game if CHI goes 8-8.

MINMIN - 1 Option

Only Option

  • MIN wins out
  • ARI loses out
  • CHI loses a game

Notes:
MIN has common games here over ARI, and division record over CHI, so MIN finishes ahead of both in a tie.

TENTEN - 4 Options

Option 1

  • TEN wins a game

Option 2

  • BAL loses a game

Option 3

  • MIA loses a game

Option 4

  • IND loses out

Notes:
At 11-5, TEN will have a head-to-head win over BAL, and MIA will have a better conference record than both, so a 3rd team won’t be usable to get BAL past TEN. the 11-5 tie between the three will result in BAL as the odd team out. At 10-6, MIA will lose common games to TEN and BAL loses head-to-head, so even if a 3-way tie occurred for the 6 seed, the remaining team will lose to TEN for the 7th seed. Finally, if IND loses out, TEN wins the division.

CLECLE - 4 Options

Option 1

  • CLE wins out

Option 2

  • CLE wins a game
  • BAL, MIA, or IND loses a game

Option 3

  • CLE wins a game
  • TEN loses out

Option 4

  • BAL, MIA, or IND loses out

Notes:
Here’s where the real fun begins. Options 1 & 3, and the BAL & MIA portions of options 2 & 4 have CLE clinching on record alone. For the IND part of options 2 & 4, the idea is that CLE is guaranteed to finish ahead of IND if IND ties CLE and doesn’t win the division, but if IND ties them and does win the division, that means that TEN has a worse record than CLE, so either way, if IND ends up tied with CLE, CLE will clinch a playoff berth. (IND loses conference record vs MIA and head-to-head vs CLE & BAL, so there is no path for IND to get ahead of CLE)

INDIND - 4 Options

Option 1

  • IND wins out

Option 2

  • IND wins a game
  • BAL or MIA loses a game

Option 3

  • IND wins a game
  • TEN or CLE loses out

Option 4

  • BAL or MIA loses out

Notes:
Every one of these is IND clinching on outright record because they cannot win a tiebreaker

MIAMIA - 4 Options

Option 1

  • MIA wins out

Option 2

  • MIA wins a game
  • BAL loses week 17

Option 3

  • MIA wins a game
  • IND or CLE loses out

Option 4

  • BAL loses out
  • LV loses week 17

Notes:
For Option 1, MIA will have the conference record tiebreaker on everyone, so they are guaranteed to finish ahead of at least BAL. Option 2 is a win over BAL on conference record. Option 3 puts MIA over CLE or IND on conference record. Option 4 puts MIA on top of BAL on common games. Note that if BAL & MIA lose out and LV wins out, LV will finish ahead of both on conference record (LV plays MIA week 16, which is why only week 17 is noted here).

BALBAL - 3 Options

Option 1

  • BAL wins out
  • CLE, IND, or MIA loses a game

Option 2

  • BAL wins out
  • TEN loses out

Option 3

  • BAL wins a game
  • CLE, IND, or MIA loses out

Notes:
BAL is the only team in the top 8 that can win out and still miss the playoffs due to losing conference record to MIA. BAL is also the only team in the top 8 that cannot make the playoffs if they lose out. BAL has the sweep over CLE, so the CLE portions of 1 & 3 get them in the playoffs by finishing ahead of CLE. The IND portions of Options 1 & 3 put BAL ahead of IND on head-to-head. Option 2 and the MIA portions of Options 1 & 3 have BAL clinching on record alone.

LVLV - 1 Option

Only Option

  • LV wins out
  • BAL loses out
  • MIA loses week 17

Notes:
LV wins the 3-way tie with MIA & BAL on conference record, so they just need all 3 to finish 9-7. MIA only has week 17 mentioned here because they play LV in week 16.

 

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