The AFC scenarios got a little messy, so I added tie-free versions of all of the seed-specific clinching scenarios.

Standings entering week 17

Bold indicates a clinched playoff berth. Italics indicate elimination from playoffs.

      NFC                                 AFC
1 GB (12-3)y 1 KC (14-1)z
2 NO (11-4)y 1 2 BUF (12-3)y 8
3 SEA (11-4)y 3 PIT (12-3)y
4 WAS (6-9)2 4 TEN (10-5)9
5 TB (10-5)kx 5 MIA (10-5)k 10
6 LAR (9-6)k 6 BAL (10-5)k 11
7 CHI (8-7)k 3 7 CLE (10-5)k 12
8 ARI (8-7)k 8 IND (10-5)
9 DAL (6-9)4 9 LV (7-8)ke
10 MIN (6-9)ke 5 10 NE (6-9)ke 13
11 SF (6-9)ke 11 LAC (6-9)ke
12 DET (5-10)ke 6 12 DEN (5-10)ke
13 NYG (5-10)7 13 CIN (4-10-1)ke
14 CAR (5-10)ke 14 HOU (4-11)ke
15 PHI (4-10-1)ke 15 NYJ (2-13)ke
16 ATL (4-11)ke 16 JAX (1-14)ke

x Team has clinched a playoff berth
y Team has clinched division title
z Team has clinched a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs
e Team is eliminated from playoff contention
k Team is knocked out of division title contention

1 NO wins the tiebreak over SEA on Conference Record (9-2 vs 8-3).
2 WAS wins the tiebreak over DAL on Head-to-Head (2-0).
3 CHI wins the tiebreak over ARI on Common Games (3-2 vs 1-3).
4 DAL wins the tiebreak over MIN/SF on Head-to-Head Sweep.
5 MIN wins the tiebreak over SF on Common Games (1-4 vs 0-4).
6 DET wins the tiebreak over NYG/CAR on Common Games (3-2 vs 2-3/2-3).
7 NYG wins the tiebreak over CAR on Strength of Victory (31-42-2 vs 29-46).
8 BUF wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
9 TEN wins the tiebreak over IND on Division Record (4-1 vs 3-2).
10 BAL wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head (2-0). MIA wins the tiebreak over BAL/IND on Conference Record (7-4 vs 6-5/6-5).
11 BAL wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head (2-0). BAL wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head.
12 CLE wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head.
13 NE wins the tiebreak over LAC on Head-to-Head.

Standard-Style Clinching Scenarios

This is the standard style scenarios that just involve clinching a playoff berth/division without any concern for seed line. To see the correlated elimination scenarios, check out the elimination section under the seed-specific scenarios. Note that unlike previous posts, I do put the division clinching scenarios inside the generic playoff clinching scenarios. Thus, you’ll see duplication in the division clinch and playoff clinch scenarios for TEN & IND.

NFC

WAS clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) WAS win
OR 2) WAS tie + DAL loss/tie

 

DAL clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) DAL win + WAS loss/tie
OR 2) DAL tie + WAS loss

 

NYG clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) NYG win + WAS loss

 

LAR clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LAR win/tie
OR 2) CHI loss/tie

 

CHI clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) CHI win
OR 2) CHI tie + ARI tie
OR 2) ARI loss

 

ARI clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) ARI win
OR 2) ARI tie + CHI loss

 

AFC

TEN clinches the AFC South division title with:
         1) TEN win
OR 2) TEN tie + IND tie
OR 3) IND loss

 

IND clinches the AFC South division title with:
         1) IND win + TEN loss/tie
OR 2) IND tie + TEN loss

 

TEN clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) TEN win
OR 2) TEN tie + IND tie
OR 3) TEN tie + MIA tie
OR 4) TEN tie + BAL tie
OR 5) TEN tie + CLE loss
OR 6) IND loss
OR 7) MIA loss
OR 8) BAL loss

 

MIA clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) MIA win
OR 2) MIA tie + BAL tie
OR 3) MIA tie + CLE tie
OR 4) MIA tie + IND tie
OR 5) MIA tie + TEN loss
OR 6) BAL loss
OR 7) CLE loss
OR 8) IND loss

 

BAL clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) BAL win
OR 2) BAL tie + CLE tie
OR 3) BAL tie + IND tie
OR 4) BAL tie + MIA loss
OR 5) BAL tie + TEN loss
OR 6) CLE loss
OR 7) IND loss

 

CLE clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) CLE win
OR 2) CLE tie + IND tie
OR 3) CLE tie + BAL loss
OR 4) CLE tie + MIA loss
OR 5) CLE tie + TEN loss
OR 6) CLE tie + TEN tie + BAL win + MIA win
OR 7) TEN loss + BAL win/tie + MIA win/tie
OR 8) IND loss

 

IND clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) IND win + TEN loss/tie
OR 2) IND win + BAL loss/tie
OR 3) IND win + CLE loss/tie
OR 4) IND win + MIA loss/tie
OR 5) IND tie + TEN loss
OR 6) IND tie + BAL loss
OR 7) IND tie + CLE loss
OR 8) IND tie + MIA loss

 

Seed Possibilities

      NFC
1 GB NO SEA
2 NO GB SEA
3 SEA GB NO
4 WAS DAL NYG
5 TB LAR
6 LAR TB CHI ARI
7 CHI LAR ARI

      AFC
1 KC
2 BUF PIT
3 PIT BUF
4 TEN IND
5 MIA TEN IND BAL CLE
6 BAL MIA TEN IND CLE
7 CLE MIA TEN IND BAL

NFC Tie-Free Scenarios by seed

1 seed

GB obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) GB win
OR 2) SEA loss

NO obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) NO win + SEA win + GB loss

SEA obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) SEA win + GB loss + NO loss

 

2 seed

GB obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) GB loss + SEA win + NO loss

NO obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) NO win + GB win
OR 2) SEA loss

SEA obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) SEA win + GB loss + NO win
OR 2) SEA win + GB win + NO loss

 

3 seed

GB obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) GB loss + SEA win + NO win

NO obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) NO loss + SEA win

SEA obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) SEA loss
OR 2) SEA win + NO win + GB win

 

4 seed

WAS obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) WAS win

DAL obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) DAL win + WAS loss

NYG obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) NYG win + WAS loss

 

5 seed

TB obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) TB win
OR 2) LAR loss

LAR obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) LAR win + TB loss

 

6 seed

TB obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) TB loss + LAR win

LAR obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) LAR win + TB win

CHI obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) CHI win + LAR loss

ARI obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) ARI win + CHI loss

 

7 seed

LAR obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) LAR loss + CHI loss

CHI obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) ARI loss

ARI obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) ARI win + CHI win

 

Elimination

WAS is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) WAS loss

DAL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DAL loss
OR 2) WAS win

NYG is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NYG loss
OR 2) WAS win

LAR is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) LAR loss + CHI win

CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CHI loss + ARI win

ARI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) ARI loss

 

AFC Tie-Free Scenarios by seed

1 seed

KC is locked into the 1 seed

 

2 seed

BUF obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) BUF win
OR 2) PIT loss

PIT obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) PIT win + BUF loss

 

3 seed

BUF obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) BUF loss + PIT win

PIT obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) PIT loss
OR 2) BUF win

 

4 seed

TEN obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) TEN win
OR 2) IND loss

IND obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) IND win + TEN loss

 

5 seed

TEN obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) TEN loss + IND win + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE loss

MIA obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) MIA win
OR 2) MIA loss + CLE loss + BAL loss + IND loss

BAL obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) BAL win + MIA loss

CLE obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) CLE win + BAL loss + MIA loss

IND obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) IND win + TEN win + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE loss

 

6 seed

TEN obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) TEN loss + IND win + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE win
OR 2) TEN loss + IND win + MIA loss + BAL win + CLE loss
OR 3) TEN loss + IND win + MIA win + BAL loss + CLE loss

MIA obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) MIA loss + CLE win + BAL loss + IND loss
OR 2) MIA loss + CLE loss + BAL win + IND loss
OR 3) MIA loss + CLE loss + BAL loss + IND win

BAL obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) BAL win + MIA win
OR 2) BAL loss + CLE loss + IND loss
OR 3) MIA win + CLE loss + IND loss

CLE obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) CLE win + MIA win + BAL loss
OR 2) CLE win + MIA loss + BAL win

IND obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) IND win + TEN win + MIA win + BAL loss + CLE loss
OR 2) IND win + TEN win + MIA loss + BAL win + CLE loss
OR 3) IND win + TEN win + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE win

 

7 seed

TEN obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) TEN loss + IND win + MIA win + BAL loss + CLE win
OR 2) TEN loss + IND win + MIA loss + BAL win + CLE win

MIA obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) MIA loss + CLE win + BAL win + IND loss
OR 2) MIA loss + CLE win + BAL loss + IND win
OR 3) MIA loss + CLE loss + BAL win + IND win

BAL obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) BAL loss + CLE loss + IND win
OR 2) BAL loss + CLE win + IND loss

CLE obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) CLE win + MIA win + BAL win
OR 2) CLE loss + MIA win + BAL win + TEN loss
OR 3) CLE loss + IND loss

IND obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) IND win + TEN win + MIA win + BAL win + CLE loss
OR 2) IND win + TEN win + MIA win + BAL loss + CLE win
OR 3) IND win + TEN win + MIA loss + BAL win + CLE win

 

Elimination

TEN is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) TEN loss + IND win + MIA win + BAL win

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) MIA loss + CLE win + BAL win + IND win

BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) BAL loss + CLE win + IND win

CLE is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) CLE loss + IND win + TEN win
OR 2) CLE loss + IND win + MIA loss
OR 3) CLE loss + IND win + BAL loss

IND is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) IND loss
OR 2) TEN win + MIA win + BAL win + CLE win

NFC Full Scenarios by seed

1 seed

GB obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) GB win/tie
OR 2) SEA loss/tie

NO obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) NO win + SEA win + GB loss

SEA obtains the 1 seed with:
         1) SEA win + GB loss + NO loss/tie

 

2 seed

GB obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) GB loss + SEA win + NO loss/tie

NO obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) NO win + GB win/tie
OR 2) NO win/tie + SEA tie
OR 3) SEA loss

SEA obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) SEA win + GB loss + NO win
OR 2) SEA win + GB win/tie + NO loss/tie
OR 3) SEA tie + NO loss

 

3 seed

GB obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) GB loss + SEA win + NO win

NO obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) NO loss + SEA win/tie
OR 2) NO tie + SEA win

SEA obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) SEA loss
OR 2) SEA tie + NO win/tie
OR 3) SEA win + NO win + GB win/tie

 

4 seed

WAS obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) WAS win
OR 2) WAS tie + DAL loss/tie

DAL obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) DAL win + WAS loss/tie
OR 2) DAL tie + WAS loss

NYG obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) NYG win + WAS loss

 

5 seed

TB obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) TB win/tie
OR 2) LAR loss/tie

LAR obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) LAR win + TB loss

 

6 seed

TB obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) TB loss + LAR win

LAR obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) LAR win + TB win/tie
OR 2) LAR tie

CHI obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) CHI win + LAR loss

ARI obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) ARI win + CHI loss/tie

 

7 seed

LAR obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) LAR loss + CHI loss/tie

CHI obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) CHI win/tie + ARI tie
OR 2) ARI loss

ARI obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) ARI win + CHI win
OR 2) ARI tie + CHI loss

 

Elimination

WAS is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) WAS loss
OR 2) WAS tie + DAL win

DAL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DAL loss
OR 2) DAL tie + WAS tie
OR 3) WAS win

NYG is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NYG loss/tie
OR 2) WAS win/tie

LAR is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) LAR loss + CHI win

CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CHI loss + ARI win/tie
OR 2) CHI tie + ARI win

ARI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) ARI loss
OR 2) ARI tie + CHI win/tie

 

AFC Full Scenarios by seed

1 seed

KC is locked into the 1 seed

 

2 seed

BUF obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) BUF win
OR 2) BUF tie + PIT tie
OR 3) PIT loss

PIT obtains the 2 seed with:
         1) PIT win + BUF loss/tie
OR 2) PIT tie + BUF loss

 

3 seed

BUF obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) BUF tie + PIT win
OR 2) BUF loss + PIT win/tie

PIT obtains the 3 seed with:
         1) PIT loss
OR 2) PIT tie + BUF tie
OR 3) BUF win

 

4 seed

TEN obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) TEN win
OR 2) TEN tie + IND tie
OR 3) IND loss

IND obtains the 4 seed with:
         1) IND win + TEN loss/tie
OR 2) IND tie + TEN loss

 

5 seed

TEN obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) TEN tie + IND win + MIA tie + BAL loss/tie + CLE loss/tie
OR 2) TEN tie + IND win + MIA loss + BAL tie + CLE loss/tie
OR 3) TEN tie + IND win + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE loss
OR 4) TEN loss + IND win/tie + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE loss

MIA obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) MIA win
OR 2) MIA tie + CLE loss/tie + BAL loss/tie + IND loss/tie
OR 3) MIA tie + CLE loss/tie + BAL loss/tie + TEN loss
OR 4) MIA loss + CLE loss + BAL loss + IND loss

BAL obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) BAL win + MIA loss/tie
OR 2) BAL tie + MIA loss + CLE loss/tie + IND loss/tie
OR 3) BAL tie + MIA loss + CLE loss/tie + TEN loss

CLE obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) CLE win + BAL loss/tie + MIA loss/tie
OR 2) CLE tie + BAL loss + MIA loss + IND loss/tie
OR 3) CLE tie + BAL loss + MIA loss + TEN loss/tie

IND obtains the 5 seed with:
         1) IND win + TEN win + MIA loss/tie + BAL loss/tie + CLE loss/tie
OR 2) IND tie + TEN win/tie + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE loss

 

6 seed

TEN obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) TEN tie + IND win + MIA win + BAL tie + CLE loss/tie
OR 2) TEN tie + IND win + MIA win + BAL loss + CLE loss
OR 3) TEN tie + IND win + MIA tie + BAL win + CLE loss/tie
OR 4) TEN tie + IND win + MIA loss + BAL win + CLE loss
OR 5) TEN tie + IND win + MIA loss/tie + BAL loss/tie + CLE win
OR 6) TEN loss + IND win/tie + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE win/tie
OR 7) TEN loss + IND win/tie + MIA loss + BAL win/tie + CLE loss
OR 8) TEN loss + IND win/tie + MIA win/tie + BAL loss + CLE loss

MIA obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) MIA tie + CLE win + BAL loss/tie + IND loss/tie
OR 2) MIA tie + CLE win + BAL loss/tie + TEN loss
OR 3) MIA tie + CLE loss/tie + BAL win + IND loss/tie
OR 4) MIA tie + CLE loss/tie + BAL win + TEN loss
OR 5) MIA tie + CLE loss/tie + BAL loss/tie + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 6) MIA loss + CLE win/tie + BAL loss + IND loss
OR 7) MIA loss + CLE loss + BAL win/tie + IND loss
OR 8) MIA loss + CLE loss + BAL loss + IND win/tie

BAL obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) BAL win + MIA win
OR 2) BAL tie + MIA win/tie + CLE loss/tie + IND loss/tie
OR 3) BAL tie + MIA win/tie + CLE loss/tie + TEN loss
OR 4) BAL tie + MIA loss + CLE win + IND loss/tie
OR 5) BAL tie + MIA loss + CLE win + TEN loss
OR 6) BAL tie + MIA loss + CLE loss/tie + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 7) BAL loss + CLE loss + IND loss

CLE obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) CLE win + MIA win + BAL loss/tie
OR 2) CLE win + MIA loss/tie + BAL win
OR 3) CLE tie + MIA win/tie + BAL loss + IND loss/tie
OR 4) CLE tie + MIA win + BAL loss + TEN loss/tie
OR 5) CLE tie + MIA tie + BAL loss + TEN loss
OR 6) CLE tie + MIA loss + BAL win/tie + IND loss/tie
OR 7) CLE tie + MIA loss + BAL win + TEN loss/tie
OR 8) CLE tie + MIA loss + BAL tie + TEN loss
OR 9) CLE tie + MIA loss + BAL loss + IND win + TEN win

IND obtains the 6 seed with:
         1) IND win + TEN win + MIA win + BAL loss/tie + CLE loss/tie
OR 2) IND win + TEN win + MIA loss/tie + BAL win + CLE loss/tie
OR 3) IND win + TEN win + MIA loss/tie + BAL loss/tie + CLE win
OR 4) IND tie + TEN win/tie + MIA win/tie + BAL loss + CLE loss
OR 5) IND tie + TEN win/tie + MIA loss + BAL win/tie + CLE loss
OR 6) IND tie + TEN win/tie + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE win/tie

 

7 seed

TEN obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) TEN tie + IND win + MIA win + BAL win + CLE loss
OR 2) TEN tie + IND win + MIA win + BAL loss/tie + CLE win
OR 3) TEN tie + IND win + MIA tie + BAL win + CLE win
OR 4) TEN tie + IND win + MIA loss + BAL win + CLE win/tie
OR 5) TEN loss + IND win/tie + MIA win/tie + BAL loss + CLE win/tie
OR 6) TEN loss + IND win/tie + MIA loss + BAL win/tie + CLE win/tie

MIA obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) MIA tie + CLE win + BAL win + IND loss/tie
OR 2) MIA tie + CLE win + BAL win + TEN loss
OR 3) MIA tie + CLE win + BAL loss/tie + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 4) MIA tie + CLE loss/tie + BAL win + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 5) MIA loss + CLE win/tie + BAL win/tie + IND loss
OR 6) MIA loss + CLE win/tie + BAL loss + IND win/tie
OR 7) MIA loss + CLE loss + BAL win/tie + IND win/tie

BAL obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) BAL tie + MIA win/tie + CLE win + IND loss/tie
OR 2) BAL tie + MIA win/tie + CLE win + TEN loss
OR 3) BAL tie + MIA win/tie + CLE loss/tie + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 4) BAL tie + MIA loss + CLE win + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 5) BAL loss + CLE loss + IND win/tie
OR 6) BAL loss + CLE win/tie + IND loss

CLE obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) CLE win + MIA win + BAL win
OR 2) CLE tie + MIA win/tie + BAL win/tie + IND loss/tie
OR 3) CLE tie + MIA win/tie + BAL win/tie + TEN loss
OR 4) CLE tie + MIA win + BAL win + TEN tie
OR 5) CLE tie + MIA win + BAL loss + IND win + TEN win
OR 6) CLE tie + MIA tie + BAL loss + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 7) CLE tie + MIA loss + BAL win + IND win + TEN win
OR 8) CLE tie + MIA loss + BAL tie + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 9) CLE loss + MIA win/tie + BAL win/tie + TEN loss
OR 10) CLE loss + IND loss

IND obtains the 7 seed with:
         1) IND win + TEN win + MIA win + BAL win + CLE loss/tie
OR 2) IND win + TEN win + MIA win + BAL loss/tie + CLE win
OR 3) IND win + TEN win + MIA loss/tie + BAL win + CLE win
OR 4) IND tie + TEN win/tie + MIA win/tie + BAL win/tie + CLE loss
OR 5) IND tie + TEN win/tie + MIA win/tie + BAL loss + CLE win/tie
OR 6) IND tie + TEN win/tie + MIA loss + BAL win/tie + CLE win/tie

 

Elimination

TEN is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) TEN tie + IND win + MIA win + BAL win + CLE win/tie
OR 2) TEN loss + IND win/tie + MIA win/tie + BAL win/tie

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) MIA tie + CLE win + BAL win + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 2) MIA loss + CLE win/tie + BAL win/tie + IND win/tie

BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) BAL tie + MIA win/tie + CLE win + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 2) BAL loss + CLE win/tie + IND win/tie

CLE is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) CLE tie + MIA win + BAL win + IND win + TEN win
OR 2) CLE tie + MIA tie + BAL win + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 3) CLE tie + MIA win + BAL tie + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 4) CLE tie + MIA tie + BAL tie + IND win + TEN win/tie
OR 5) CLE loss + IND win/tie + TEN win/tie
OR 6) CLE loss + IND win/tie + MIA loss
OR 7) CLE loss + IND win/tie + BAL loss

IND is eliminated from playoff contention with with:
         1) IND loss
OR 2) IND tie + TEN win/tie + MIA win/tie + BAL win/tie + CLE win/tie
OR 3) TEN win + MIA win + BAL win + CLE win

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