Because there is so much confusion regarding DAL’s playoff status, I’m going to clarify here.
DAL has not yet clinched the division
If DAL loses out & PHI wins out, they will be 1-1 vs each other, 4-2 in division, and 7-5 in common games, so the tiebreaker will fall to Strength of Victory (SoV).
Strength of Victory is not yet clinched for DAL
Because PHI & DAL defeated so many of the same opponents, the games that can affect one team’s SoV without affecting the other’s the same way comes down to just 4 opponents each. DAL will be 1-1 vs WAS and 2-0 vs NYG, while PHI will be 1-1 vs NYG and 2-0 vs WAS. Thus, when looking at SoV, we can say that one instance of NYG counts only towards DAL’s SoV, while one instance of WAS counts towards PHI’s SoV. With that, these are the teams we are looking at that count only towards 1 teams SoV and their current win totals.
DAL:
NYG(4),
LAC(8),
NE(9),
MIN(7): 28 wins
PHI:
WAS(6),
DEN(7),
NYJ(3),
DET(2.5): 18.5 wins
Since there are 3 weeks left, that means that there are theoretically, 12 (3x4) more games that could swing in PHI’s favor. However, to get to this point, we have to have a PHI win over WAS in week 17, which means that WAS can only gain 2 more wins. This means that there are 11 more wins for PHI to get, which would put PHI up by 1.5 if all 11 of those go for PHI, and all 12 of DAL’s lose.
Strength of Schedule is clinched for DAL
If PHI & DAL were to end up tied in SoV at the end of this, it would fall to Strength of Schedule. Only 3 opponents aren’t common in PHI & DAL’s Strength of Schedule:
DAL:
NE(9),
MIN(7),
ARI(10): 26 wins
PHI:
NYJ(3),
DET(2.5),
SF(8): 14.5 wins
Given only 9 (3x3) games are gainable by PHI towards SoS, that means that DAL already has Strength of Schedule clinched, which means that 1.5 results going against PHI in the last 3 weeks will give DAL the division.
Games of Interest
Since this scenario involves WAS defeating DAL & PHI defeating NYG in week 16, that leaves us with 6 more games that could swing this this in week 16:
MIN(DAL+1) vs
LAR
DET(PHI+1) vs
ATL
NE(DAL+1) vs
BUF
NYJ(PHI+1) vs
JAX
DEN(PHI+1) vs
LV
LAC(DAL+1) vs
HOU
The easiest way to write this is to say DAL clinches SoV in week 16 if 1.5 or more wins come from these teams: MIN, ATL, NE, JAX, LV, LAC
DAL’s division clinching scenario
Thus, DAL’s clinching scenarios are:
|
DAL clinches the NFC East division title with: |
| 1) |
DAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
PHI loss/tie |
| OR | 3) | 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, ATL, NE, JAX, LV, LAC) |
DAL has not yet clinched a playoff berth
If all of this happens to keep DAL out of the division, they haven’t clinched a playoff berth either. NO, LAR, and SF cannot win a tiebreaker against DAL at 10-7 (all have worse conference records, and NO has a head-to-head loss). MIN has a tie in conference record, but a head-to-head loss to DAL. Since no other team can reach the same 8-4 conference record as DAL & MIN here, no 3rd team can be used to bypass the head-to-head. The only other team that could end up at 10-7 in this scenario that DAL hasn’t already clinched the tiebreaker on is TB.
DAL clinches if TB wins the NFC South title
Without TB in the mix, no team can finish ahead of DAL, so the only way for DAL to miss the playoffs is for TB to lose out or NO to win out so that TB loses the NFC South title at 10-7 (NO has head-to-head over TB).
Thus a
TB win/tie or a
NO loss/tie will clinch a berth for DAL.
DAL clinches if SF loses
SF is also currently at 8-6. The only way DAL misses the playoffs even if TB loses their division at 10-7 is to finish behind LAR, SF, and TB in the wildcard. However DAL has the conference record tiebreaker over SF & LAR, and since DAL didn’t play either of them, and LAR defeated TB, no head-to-head sweep comes into play. Thus, if we can’t get SF & LAR ahead of DAL in record alone, DAL will finish ahead of them on tiebreakers, and clinch a playoff berth. If SF loses, SF will hit 7 losses and will automatically finish behind DAL, clinching a berth for them.
DAL’s playoff clinching scenario
|
DAL clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
NO loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
TB win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
SF loss |
Summary
By the narrowest of margins, DAL has not yet clinched a playoff berth, but they will with the following scenarios:
|
DAL clinches the NFC East division title with: |
| 1) |
DAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
PHI loss/tie |
| OR | 3) | 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, ATL, NE, JAX, LV, LAC) |
The italicized portion in scenario 3 is for DAL clinching at least a tie in Strength of Victory over PHI
|
DAL clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
NO loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
TB win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
SF loss |