With only 2 weeks to go, the playoff picture is becoming increasingly clear. With that said, we have at least one clear path for any team that has not yet clinched and is not yet eliminated to make the playoffs. This post is here to show at least one way for each team to make the playoffs. Note that the scenarios listed here are not exhaustive - there may be other ways for these teams to reach the playoffs. The scenarios listed here are the simplest ways (or at least a subset of the simplest ways). As such they will exclude ties. Also, due to the exceptionally tight AFC, if an AFC team can reach 10 wins, the only options that will be listed below are options that include the team reaching 10 wins. While 9-8 teams can make the playoffs in the AFC, doing so requires enough games that these no longer a subset of the simplest ways.

PHI - 5 options

Option 1

  • PHI wins out

Option 2

  • PHI wins a game
  • MIN loses a game
  • SF loses week 18

Option 3

  • PHI wins a game
  • MIN loses a game
  • NO loses a game

Option 4

  • MIN loses out
  • WAS loses week 18
  • ATL loses week 17
  • ATL defeats NO week 18

Option 5

  • MIN loses out
  • WAS loses week 18
  • NO loses a game
  • ATL loses a game
  • SF wins a game

Notes:
It’s practically impossible for PHI to win a tiebreaker against MIN, so we need MIN to have a worse record. The real focal point of these scenarios is that PHI has head-to-head over NO & ATL, SF has head-to-head over PHI & ATL, but NO will win the tiebreaker over SF (which tiebreaker depends on which games are won/lost). For option 2, if SF wins week 17, SF will drop out of the SF/PHI/NO tie on conference record, and PHI advances over NO on head-to-head. For option 3, we get NO out of the picture. ATL has head-to-head losses to both PHI & SF, so PHI is safe. In option 4, we use ATL to get NO out of the picture. For option 5, we get SF out of the picture instead so that PHI can win the head-to-head tiebreaker over NO/ATL.

WAS - 3 options

Option 1

  • WAS wins out
  • SF loses out
  • MIN loses a game
  • NO loses a game
  • ATL loses a game

Option 2

  • WAS wins out
  • PHI loses week 18
  • MIN wins exactly 1 game
  • NO loses a game
  • ATL loses a game

Option 3

  • WAS wins out
  • PHI loses week 18
  • MIN loses a game
  • ATL loses week 17
  • ATL defeats NO week 18

Notes:
WAS wins every tiebreaker except a 2-way tie with NO. However, since division ties are broken first, we can’t use PHI to force a 3-way tie. We need to either get NO out of the picture (via ATL) or add a 3rd team (MIN/SF) to the mix.

MIN - 5 options

Option 1

  • MIN wins out
  • SF loses out
  • PHI loses out

Option 2

  • MIN wins out
  • SF loses out
  • PHI wins out

Option 3

  • MIN wins out
  • SF wins out
  • PHI loses out

Option 4

  • MIN wins out
  • NO loses a game
  • PHI loses week 18

Option 5

  • MIN wins a game
  • PHI loses out
  • ATL loses week 17
  • ATL defeats NO week 18

Notes:
At 9-8, MIN/PHI will either go to MIN on common games if PHI’s win is vs WAS, or it will go to Strength of Victory if PHI’s win is against DAL. MIN has an edge on Strength of Victory, but it’s not clinched, so we don’t utilize it in these options. MIN also has common games on NO, but NO has Strength of Victory clinched. Thus, the central point in these options is that we need to force MIN into only a 2-way tie with PHI or NO for the 7 seed (ATL will drop out of MIN/PHI on conference record, so MIN/PHI/ATL becomes MIN/PHI).

ATL - 3 options

Option 1

  • ATL wins out
  • MIN loses a game
  • SF loses out

Option 2

  • ATL wins out
  • MIN loses a game
  • PHI loses out

Option 3

  • ATL wins out
  • PHI loses out
  • SF loses out

Notes:
ATL loses every non-division tiebreaker, but if they win out, they’ll have head-to-head over NO, so NO doesn’t matter. ATL must then reach the playoff seed on record alone.

NO - 4 options

Option 1

  • NO wins out
  • PHI loses out
  • SF loses week 18

Option 2

  • NO wins out
  • SF loses out
  • PHI loses a game

Option 3

  • NO wins out
  • MIN loses a game
  • SF loses week 18

Option 4

  • NO wins week 18
  • MIN loses week 17
  • SF loses out

Notes:
NO has Strength of Victory clinched over MIN & SF at 9-8 (but not SF if SF loses week 17 and wins week 18). However, MIN has the 2-way tie, so NO must use a 3rd team to get past MIN. NO has SoV clinched over PHI & MIN. If SF wins week 17 and loses week 18, NO will have conference record over SF. NO also has common games over SF in a 2-way tie. In the 8-9 case, NO must defeat ATL in week 18 or ATL will finish ahead of NO. NO has common games and Strength of Victory over SF & MIN if MIN loses week 17 (option 4).

SF - 4 Options

Option 1

  • SF wins out

Option 2

  • SF wins a game
  • NO loses a game

Option 3

  • PHI loses out
  • MIN loses a game
  • ATL loses week 17
  • ATL defeats NO week 18

Option 4

  • PHI loses out
  • MIN loses a game
  • NO wins out
  • WAS loses week 18

Notes:
SF has the head-to-head tiebreaker against MIN, ATL, and PHI. all teams that could finish 9-8 except NO. If NO is out of the picture, SF clinches at 9-8. At 8-9, we can let NO lose to ATL, and ATL will finish ahead of NO on head-to-head. Even if WAS wins out, WAS can take the 6 seed, and SF gets the 7 on head-to-head. Alternatively, we can get NO & WAS out of the picture by letting NO finish 9-8 and WAS finish 7-10.

BUF - 3 options at 10-7

Option 1

  • BUF wins week 18

Option 2

  • BUF wins week 17
  • NE loses week 18

Option 3

  • BUF wins week 17
  • BAL loses a game
  • LAC loses a game
  • LV loses a game

Notes:
Options 1 & 2 give BUF the AFC East. Due to head-to-head, BUF is guaranteed to finish ahead of MIA in the division if they tie in record. Thus, option 3 puts BUF up on record alone, with the exception of MIA, who doesn’t need to lose a game.

NE - 3 options at 10-7

Option 1

  • NE defeats MIA week 18

Option 2

  • NE wins week 17
  • MIA loses week 17

Option 3

  • NE wins week 17
  • LV loses week 17

Notes:
NE & MIA cannot lose a tiebreaker to LAC & BAL at 10-7. Thus, the only way for NE to miss the playoffs if they win a game is for both LV & MIA to win out. All 3 options involve NE win + either LV or MIA losing.

MIA - 1 option at 10-7

Option 1

  • MIA wins out

Notes:
MIA at 10-7 is guaranteed to be ahead of NE, BAL, and LAC, which puts them at worst at the 7 seed. MIA can advance at 9-8, but it requires too many results to be placed in the post at the moment.

CIN - 2 options

Option 1

  • CIN wins a game

Option 2

  • BAL loses week 17
  • CLE loses week 17
  • PIT loses week 18

Notes:
These options both clinch the AFC North. There are ways for CIN to clinch a wildcard berth at 9-8, but it would require too many results to be placed in this post at the moment.

BAL - 5 options at 10-7

Option 1

  • BAL wins out
  • CIN loses out

Option 2

  • BAL wins out
  • MIA loses a game
  • LAC loses a game
  • LV loses a game

Option 3

  • BAL wins out
  • NE loses out
  • MIA loses week 17

Option 4

  • BAL wins out
  • NE loses out
  • BUF loses out

Option 5

  • BAL wins out
  • NE wins out
  • BUF wins out

Notes:
Option 1 clinches the division for BAL. Options 2-4 put BAL up on record alone. BAL is in bad shape with tiebreakers, with their only real way to get past teams being head-to-head over IND & LAC. However, to make use of these tiebreakers, we have to only have IND & LAC in the tiebreaker as an added AFC East team will ruin the head-to-head sweep. Thus, option 5 ensures that no AFC East teams are in the way.

PIT - 2 options at 9-7-1

Option 1

  • PIT wins out
  • CIN loses out

Option 2

  • PIT wins out
  • MIA loses a game
  • LAC loses a game
  • LV loses a game

Notes:
As we aren’t factoring ties here, this is just a matter of PIT clinching on record alone. This means this also extends to BUF, NE, or IND losing out, but those end up with too many options to work through, so in the interest of simplicity, I chose the option that involves them clinching with the fewest number of needed games.

CLE - 2 options at 9-8

Option 1

  • CLE wins out
  • CIN loses week 17
  • BAL loses a game

Option 2:

  • CLE wins out
  • BAL loses a game
  • MIA loses out
  • DEN wins out
  • LAC defeats LV week 18

Notes:
CLE basically can’t win a non-division tiebreaker except vs DEN. In the case of BUF/LAC/CLE or MIA/LAC/CLE, BUF/MIA advances on common games, then LAC finishes ahead of CLE on head-to-head. This means that BAL & MIA must lose to go below CLE’s record. Since LAC plays LV, one of the 2 will finish ahead of CLE. However, if we let DEN defeat LAC, then let LAC defeat LV, DEN will finish ahead of both in the division, so CLE can use DEN to sneak into the 7 seed. Without ties, these are CLE’s ONLY 2 options.

TEN - 3 options

Option 1

  • TEN wins a game

Option 2

  • IND loses a game

Option 3

  • LAC loses a game
  • BAL loses a game
  • MIA loses week 18

Notes:
The first 2 options clinch the division. The 3rd option puts TEN in the playoffs on record alone. (LV is unnecessary because LV winning out involves them defeating IND, which gives TEN the division).

IND - 4 options at 10-7

Option 1

  • IND wins week 17

Option 2

  • IND wins week 18
  • MIA wins out

Option 3

  • IND wins week 18
  • BAL loses a game

Option 4

  • IND wins week 18
  • LV loses week 18

Notes:
The only way IND misses the playoffs with a week 18 win is a 3-way BAL/LV/IND tie that IND loses on head-to-head. If MIA finishes 10-7, IND is safe. If MIA doesn’t, then IND needs BAL or LV to drop below 10 wins.

LAC - 2 options at 10-7

Option 1

  • LAC wins out
  • TEN loses out
  • IND wins out

Option 2

  • LAC wins out
  • MIA loses a game
  • BAL loses a game

Notes:
LAC loses every possible 2-way tiebreaker, except BUF if BUF loses/ties week 18 or TEN if TEN loses out. For option 1, if we can get TEN to 10-7, then LAC is guaranteed to finish ahead of TEN & BAL on conference record. For option 2, LAC gets in on record alone.

LV - 1 option at 10-7

Option 1

  • LV wins out

Notes:
LV is guaranteed to finish ahead of BAL, MIA, and BUF. LV has Strength of Victory and will have head-to-head over IND. LV also has common games over NE. There is no way for any team to get ahead of LV on a tiebreaker.

DEN - Only tie-free option

Only tie-free option

  • DEN wins out
  • MIA loses out
  • BAL loses out
  • CLE defeats PIT week 17
  • CLE loses week 18
  • LAC defeats LV week 18

Notes:
DEN loses every non-divisional tiebreaker. This means that MIA, BAL, PIT, and CLE must finish with more than 8 losses, and given the interplay between the AFC North teams, that means every game must go a specific way. DEN does have the divisional tiebreaker to finish ahead of LAC or LAC & LV if LV loses to LAC in week 18, so if we can put LAC over LV and get the non-divisional teams below 8 wins, DEN can squeak through.

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