Every team’s simplest path to the playoffs

Standings entering week 16

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIx 13-1 8-1  
2 MINxy 11-3 6-3  
3 SFxy 10-4 8-2  
4 TB 6-8 6-3  
5 DALx 10-4 7-3  
6 NYGk 8-5-1 4-5-1  
7 WASk 7-6-1 4-5-1  
8 SEAk 7-7 5-6 SEA wins the tiebreak over DET on Head-to-Head.
9 DETk 7-7 5-4  
10 GBk 6-8 5-5  
11 CAR 5-9 4-5 ATL drops out of the tiebreak with CAR/NO on Head-to-Head (1-3 vs 2-1). CAR wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
12 NO 5-9 4-6 NO wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head (2-0).
13 ATL 5-9 4-6  
14 ARIke 4-10 3-6 ARI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Common Games (3-4 vs 2-5).
15 LARke 4-10 3-8  
16 CHIke 3-11 1-9  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUFx 11-3 8-2 BUF wins the tiebreak over KC on Head-to-Head.
2 KCxy 11-3 7-3  
3 CIN 10-4 6-3  
4 TEN 7-7 5-5  
5 BAL 9-5 6-4  
6 LACk 8-6 6-4 LAC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Head-to-Head.
7 MIA 8-6 6-4  
8 NEk 7-7 5-4 NE wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Head-to-Head (2-0).
9 NYJk 7-7 5-5  
10 JAX 6-8 5-4 CLE wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head (1-0). JAX wins the tiebreak over LV/CLE on Conference Record (5-4 vs 5-5/4-7).
11 LVk 6-8 5-5 CLE wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head (1-0). LV wins the tiebreak over CLE on Conference Record (5-5 vs 4-7).
12 CLEk 6-8 4-7 CLE wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head (1-0).
13 PITk 6-8 2-7  
14 IND 4-9-1 4-5-1  
15 DENke 4-10 2-8  
16 HOUke 1-12-1 1-7-1  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIx 13-1 3-1  
2 DALx 10-4 3-1  
3 NYGk 8-5-1 1-3-1  
4 WASk 7-6-1 1-3-1  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 MINxy 11-3 3-1  
2 DETk 7-7 3-1  
3 GBk 6-8 2-2  
4 CHIke 3-11 0-4  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 6-8 3-1  
2 CAR 5-9 3-1 ATL drops out of the tiebreak with CAR/NO on Head-to-Head (1-3 vs 2-1). CAR wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 NO 5-9 2-3 NO wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head (2-0).
4 ATL 5-9 1-4  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SFxy 10-4 5-0  
2 SEAk 7-7 3-2  
3 ARIke 4-10 1-4 ARI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Common Games (3-4 vs 2-5).
4 LARke 4-10 1-4  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUFx 11-3 3-2  
2 MIA 8-6 2-2  
3 NEk 7-7 2-2 NE wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Head-to-Head (2-0).
4 NYJk 7-7 2-3  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CIN 10-4 2-3  
2 BAL 9-5 3-1  
3 CLEk 6-8 3-2 CLE wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4 PITk 6-8 1-3  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TEN 7-7 3-1  
2 JAX 6-8 2-2  
3 IND 4-9-1 1-3-1  
4 HOUke 1-12-1 1-1-1  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 11-3 4-0  
2 LACk 8-6 2-3  
3 LVk 6-8 3-2  
4 DENke 4-10 0-4  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

Clinching Scenarios

NFC

PHI clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) PHI win/tie

 

PHI clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) PHI win
OR 2) PHI tie + MIN loss/tie

 

NYG clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) NYG win + WAS loss + DET loss
OR 2) NYG win + WAS loss + SEA loss
OR 3) NYG win + DET loss + SEA loss

 

AFC

BUF clinches the AFC East division title with:
         1) BUF win/tie
OR 2) MIA loss/tie

 

CIN clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) CIN win/tie
OR 2) NYJ loss/tie

 

BAL clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) BAL win + NE loss/tie + NYJ loss/tie
OR 2) BAL win + NE loss/tie + MIA loss/tie
OR 3) BAL win + NYJ loss/tie + MIA loss/tie
OR 4) BAL tie + NE loss + NYJ loss
OR 5) BAL tie + NE loss + NYJ tie + MIA loss
OR 6) BAL tie + NE loss + NYJ tie + LAC win
OR 7) BAL tie + NE loss + MIA loss + LAC win
OR 8) BAL tie + NE tie + NYJ loss + MIA loss
OR 9) BAL tie + NE tie + NYJ tie + MIA loss + LAC win
OR 10) NYJ loss + NE loss + CLE loss/tie + LV loss/tie + LAC win + TEN loss/tie

 

LAC clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LAC win + LV loss/tie + NYJ loss + NE loss
OR 2) LAC win + LV loss/tie + NYJ loss + NE tie + MIA loss
OR 3) LAC win + LV loss/tie + NYJ tie + NE loss + MIA loss

 

Elimination Scenarios

NFC

DAL is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) DAL loss/tie

 

NO is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) NO loss + TB win

 

ATL is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) ATL loss + TB win
OR 2) ATL loss + TB tie + CAR win
OR 3) ATL loss + TB tie + CAR tie + NO win
OR 4) ATL loss + CAR win + NO win

 

GB is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) GB loss + WAS win

 

AFC

MIA is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) MIA loss/tie
OR 2) BUF win/tie

 

IND is eliminated from AFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) IND loss/tie
OR 2) TEN win/tie
OR 3) JAX win/tie

 

NYJ is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NYJ loss + LAC win + MIA win + NE win + BAL win/tie
OR 2) NYJ loss + LAC win + MIA win + NE win + CLE loss/tie

 

PIT is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) PIT loss
OR 2) PIT tie + LAC win/tie + NE win/tie
OR 3) PIT tie + LAC win/tie + NYJ win/tie
OR 4) PIT tie + LAC win/tie + MIA tie
OR 5) PIT tie + LAC tie + MIA win
OR 6) LAC win + MIA win
OR 7) LAC win + MIA tie + NE win
OR 8) LAC win + MIA tie + NYJ win
OR 9) LAC win + NE win + NYJ win

 

CLE is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CLE loss
OR 2) CLE tie + LAC win/tie + MIA win/tie
OR 3) CLE tie + LAC win/tie + NE win/tie
OR 4) CLE tie + LAC win/tie + NYJ win/tie
OR 5) BAL win/tie + LAC win + MIA win
OR 6) BAL win/tie + LAC win + MIA tie + NE win
OR 7) BAL win/tie + LAC win + MIA tie + NYJ win
OR 8) BAL win/tie + LAC win + NE win + NYJ win

 

LV is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) LV loss + LAC win/tie + MIA win/tie
OR 2) LV loss + LAC win/tie + NYJ win/tie
OR 3) LV loss + LAC win/tie + NE win/tie
OR 4) LV tie + LAC win + MIA win
OR 5) LV tie + LAC win + MIA tie + NE win
OR 6) LV tie + LAC win + MIA tie + NYJ win
OR 7) LV tie + LAC win + NE win + NYJ win

 

Possible Seeds

E simply means the team could still miss the playoffs

                 
PHI: 1 2 3   5      
DAL: 1 2 3   5 6 7  
WAS:         5 6 7 E
NYG:         5 6 7 E
                 
MIN: 1 2 3          
DET:           6 7 E
GB:           6 7 E
CHI:               E
                 
TB:       4     7 E
CAR:       4     7 E
ATL:       4     7 E
NO:       4     7 E
                 
SF: 1 2 3          
SEA:           6 7 E
ARI:               E
LAR:               E
                 
BUF: 1 2 3   5 6    
MIA: 1 2 3   5 6 7 E
NE:         5 6 7 E
NYJ:         5 6 7 E
                 
CIN: 1 2 3   5 6 7 E
BAL: 1 2 3   5 6 7 E
CLE:         5 6 7 E
PIT:           6 7 E
                 
TEN:       4 5 6 7 E
JAX:       4   6 7 E
IND:       4       E
HOU:               E
                 
KC: 1 2 3          
LAC:         5 6 7 E
LV:         5 6 7 E
DEN:               E

Team Control

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI BUF

Teams that control the 2 seed:
MIN CIN KC

Teams that control the 3 seed:
SF BAL

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB CAR TEN JAX(new)

Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL

Teams that control the 6 seed:
NYG

Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS(6) MIA(6) NE(new) LAC(new)

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DET GB CHI ATL NO SEA(7) ARI LAR
NYJ CLE PIT IND HOU LV DEN

Want to discuss the playoff picture? Head to the corresponding reddit post