- Introduction (Please read before asking questions)
-
NYG - 5 options -
WAS - 2 options -
DET - 9 options -
GB - 7 options -
TB - 5 options -
CAR - 2 options -
NO - 3 options -
SEA - 6 options -
MIA - 3 options -
NE - 3 options -
NYJ - Only one non-tie option -
PIT - Only one non-tie option -
JAX - 2 options -
TEN - Only one non-tie option -
LV - 2 options
Introduction (Please read before asking questions)
With only 2 weeks to go, the playoff picture is becoming increasingly clear. With that said, we have at least one clear path for any team that has not yet clinched and is not yet eliminated to make the playoffs. This post is here to show at least one way for each team to make the playoffs. Note that the scenarios listed here are not exhaustive - there may be other ways for these teams to reach the playoffs. The scenarios listed here are the least complex ways (or at least a subset thereof). As such they will exclude ties.
Also, while I am confident in my analysis, please note that there was a lot of manual input to make this post, and I am confident there will be issues on the initial post. I will correct these issues as they are identified.
NYG - 5 options
Option 1:
- NYG wins a game
Option 2:
- WAS loses a game
- SEA loses a game
- DET loses a game
Option 3:
- WAS loses a game
- SEA loses a game
- GB loses a game
Option 4:
- WAS loses a game
- DET loses a game
- GB loses a game
Option 5:
- SEA loses a game
- DET loses a game
- GB loses a game
Notes:
NYG has head-to-head on WAS, so any win puts them at least tied with WAS and ahead of every other contender on record alone. If NYG loses out, they need 3 of WAS/SEA/DET/GB to lose. If WAS loses a game, NYG is guaranteed ahead on head-to-head. The others put NYG up on record alone. It is important to note that DET plays GB, so one of those will have a loss unless the game ends in a tie.
WAS - 2 options
Option 1:
- WAS wins out
Option 2:
- WAS wins a game
- SEA loses a game
- DET loses a game
- GB loses a game
Notes:
With a loss, WAS is guaranteed to finish behind NYG on head-to-head, so they only have the 7 seed available to them. They need to have losses by all of the 8-loss teams if they only win one game. Note that GB & DET play each other in week 18, so barring a tie, one of them will get that loss. If WAS loses out, the only way they aren’t eliminated on record alone involves DET tying GB, but even if that happens, DET will finish ahead of WAS, so WAS cannot advance if they lose out.
DET - 9 options
Option 1:
- DET wins out
- WAS loses a game
- SEA loses a game
Option 2:
- DET wins out
- SEA loses a game
- NYG loses out
Option 3:
- DET wins out
- WAS loses a game
- NYG loses out
Option 4:
- DET defeats GB (W18)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- NO loses a game
- TB defeats CAR (W17)
Option 5:
- DET defeats GB (W18)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- NO loses a game
- ATL defeats TB (W18)
Option 6:
- DET defeats GB (W18)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- TB loses out
Option 7:
- DET defeats CHI (W17)
- MIN defeats GB (W17)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- NO loses a game
- TB defeats CAR (W17)
Option 8:
- DET defeats CHI (W17)
- MIN defeats GB (W17)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- NO loses a game
- ATL defeats TB (W18)
Option 9:
- DET defeats CHI (W17)
- MIN defeats GB (W17)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- TB loses out
Notes:
DET/SEA 2-way goes to SEA on head-to-head. If DET defeats GB or DET beats CHI and MIN beats GB, DET is guaranteed to finish above GB, moving them out of the picture. NO/DET goes to NO on common games, and TB/DET goes to TB on conference record, so we need to ensure that neither NO nor TB can finish 8-9 but not win the NFC South (CAR at 8-9 always wins the NFC South).
GB - 7 options
Option 1:
- GB wins out
- WAS loses a game
Option 2:
- GB wins out
- NYG loses out
Option 3:
- GB defeats DET (W18)
- CHI defeats DET (W17)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- NO loses a game
Option 4:
- GB defeats DET (W18)
- CHI defeats DET (W17)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- TB loses out
Option 5:
- GB defeats DET (W18)
- CHI defeats DET (W17)
- LAR defeats SEA (W18)
- WAS loses out
- NO loses a game
- TB defeats CAR (W17)
Option 6:
- GB defeats DET (W18)
- CHI defeats DET (W17)
- LAR defeats SEA (W18)
- WAS loses out
- NO loses a game
- ATL defeats TB (W18)
Option 7:
- GB defeats DET (W18)
- CHI defeats DET (W17)
- LAR defeats SEA (W18)
- WAS loses out
- TB loses out
Notes:
If GB doesn’t win out, they must win week 18 and have DET lose week 17. If DET defeats GB, GB is eliminated on head-to-head. If DET wins week 17, and GB defeats DET week 18, GB is eliminated by losing division record to DET. If SEA wins week 18 but loses week 17, SEA has common games on GB, but if SEA loses week 18, GB has conference record on SEA. GBand NO would fall to Strength of Victory at 8-9 here, which is up in the air, so we’re bypassing that possibility by making sure NO can’t finish 8-9 without winning the NFC South. TB can finish 8-9 without winning the NFC South and fall behind GB on head-to-head, but only if SEA isn’t involved in the tie (TB/GB/SEA would go to TB on conference record). Thus, the NFC South scenarios on the final options are to make sure that if SEA only loses week 18, no team can go 8-9 without winning the NFC South, and if SEA loses out, NO can’t go 8-9 without winning the division.
TB - 5 options
Option 1:
- TB defeats CAR (W17)
Option 2:
- TB defeats ATL (W18)
- NO defeats CAR (W18)
Option 3:
- TB defeats ATL (W18)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses a game
- DET defeats CHI (W17)
- MIN defeats GB (W17)
- GB defeats DET (W18)
Option 4:
- TB defeats ATL (W18)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses out
- CHI defeats DET (W17)
- DET defeats GB (W18)
Option 5:
- TB defeats ATL (W18)
- WAS loses out
- SEA loses exactly 1 game
- GB defeats DET (W18)
- MIN defeats GB (W17)
- CHI defeats DET (W17)
Notes:
Options 1 & 2 have TB winning the NFC South. Options 3 & 4 have TB clinching the final wildcard. GB has head-to-head over TB, so if GB goes 8-9 and finishes 2nd in their division, and SEA loses out, then GB finishes ahead of TB. However, if SEA loses exactly 1 game to go 8-9, GB/TB/SEA goes to TB on conference record. Thus, every path for TB involves DET finishing 2nd in their division at 8-9 or SEA finishing exactly 8-9.
CAR - 2 options
Option 1:
- CAR wins out
Option 2:
- CAR defeats TB (W17)
- ATL defeats TB (W18)
- PHI defeats NO (W17)
Notes:
These both clinch the NFC South for CAR. CAR could get a wildcard berth at 7-9-1, but we’re trying to avoid ties in this post. CAR wins head-to-head in the 2-way CAR/TB tie. CAR wins 3-way head-to-head in the CAR/TB/NO tie (and 4-way if ATL wins week 17 as well).
NO - 3 options
Option 1:
- NO wins out
- TB loses out
Option 2:
- NO wins out
- WAS loses out
- LAR defeats SEA (W18)
- DET defeats CHI (W17)
- MIN defeats GB (W17)
- GB defeats DET (W18)
Option 3:
- NO wins out
- WAS loses out
- LAR defeats SEA (W18)
- CHI defeats DET (W17)
- DET defeats GB (W18)
Notes:
Option 1 wins the NFC South for NO. Options 2 & 3 involve NO being involved in a tiebreaker for the 7 seed. The particular combinations here are to avoid us getting to a Strength of Victory tiebreaker. Strength of Victory tiebreakers will not generally go well for NO.
SEA - 6 options
Option 1:
- SEA wins out
- WAS loses a game
- NYG loses out
Option 2:
- SEA wins out
- WAS loses a game
- GB loses a game
Option 3:
- SEA wins out
- NYG loses out
- WAS wins out
- GB loses a game
Option 4:
- SEA defeats LAR (W18)
- WAS loses out
- DET loses a game
- GB loses a game
- NO loses a game
- TB defeats CAR (W17)
Option 5:
- SEA defeats LAR (W18)
- WAS loses out
- DET loses a game
- GB loses a game
- NO loses a game
- ATL defeats TB (W18)
Option 6:
- SEA defeats LAR (W18)
- WAS loses out
- DET loses a game
- GB loses a game
- TB loses out
Notes:
There are more options for if SEA defeats NYJ but fails to defeat LAR. The gist of them would be “Make sure that DET finished 8-9 and 2nd in the NFC North” and “Make sure that neither TB nor NO can finish 8-9 without winning the NFC South”. If SEA defeats LAR instead, we still have to make sure that TB/NO win the division at 8-9, but we don’t need the added restriction with DET/GB, as SEA has head-to-head over DET and common games over WAS. Option 3 here requires WAS to win out because WAS losing a game is covered in Option 1, and if WAS goes exactly 1-0-1, DET would jump over SEA on conference record because SEA/DET/WAS would have no head-to-head sweep.
MIA - 3 options
Option 1:
- MIA wins out
Option 2:
- MIA defeats NYJ (W18)
- BUF defeats NE (W18)
Option 3:
- MIA defeats NE (W17)
- SEA defeats NYJ (W17)
Notes:
If MIA loses to NE, MIA loses division record in a tie, so MIA needs NE to lose their other game. If MIA loses to NYJ, MIA loses head-to-head in a tie, so MIA needs NYJ to lose their other game.
NE - 3 options
Option 1:
- NE wins out
Option 2:
- NE defeats MIA (W17)
- NYJ defeats MIA (W18)
- SEA defeats NYJ (W17)
- LV loses a game
- PIT loses a game
- JAX defeats TEN (W18)
Option 3:
- NE defeats MIA (W17)
- NYJ defeats MIA (W18)
- SEA defeats NYJ (W17)
- LV loses a game
- PIT loses a game
- HOU defeats JAX (W17)
Notes: If NE wins out, NE is guaranteed to finish ahead of MIA on division record and NYJ on head-to-head. Additionally, they will have head-to-head on PIT, and no AFC South team can finish 9-8 without winning the AFC South, so NE is in if they win out. If NE loses to MIA, they are eliminated, as they’d have 9 losses & MIA would have 9 wins. If NE defeats MIA but loses to BUF, then they need to force a 3-way 8-9 tie in the AFC East. Additionally, LV has head-to-head on NE, so NE needs LV to lose a game. NE has head-to-head and conference record on CLE & PIT, so as long as they finish with 9 losses, NE is fine, so PIT needs to lose a game. Finally, we need to make it impossible for JAX to go 8-9 without winning their division. (NE has conference record on TEN, but JAX has conference record on NE). JAX beating TEN or losing to HOU accomplishes this.
NYJ - Only one non-tie option
Only non-tie option:
- NYJ wins out
- NE loses a game
Notes:
If NYJ loses to MIA, NYJ has 9 losses & MIA has 9 wins. If NYJ loses to SEA, the only way NYJ isn’t out on record alone requires NE to beat MIA and lose week 18. If that happens, the 3-way 8-9 tie for the AFC East would go to NE on head-to-head, so NYJ has to win out. If NYJ wins out and NE wins out, NE has head-to-head over NYJ, so NYJ needs NE to lose a game. NYJ will have head-to-head on MIA if MIA beats NE.
PIT - Only one non-tie option
Only non-tie option:
- PIT wins out
- MIA loses out
- SEA defeats NYJ (W17)
- BUF defeats NE (W18)
Notes:
PIT can’t win any tiebreakers vs the AFC East, so they have to clinch a playoff berth on record alone.
JAX - 2 options
Option 1:
- JAX defeats TEN (W18)
Option 2:
- JAX defeats HOU (W17)
- MIA loses out
- SEA defeats NYJ (W17)
- BUF defeats NE (W18)
- PIT loses a game
Notes:
Option 1 clinches the division for JAX. For option 2, JAX wins literally every non-divisional tiebreaker, so as long as every other possible 7 seed gets to 9 losses, JAX is in even if they lose the division to TEN in week 18.
TEN - Only one non-tie option
Only non-tie option:
- TEN defeats JAX (W18)
Notes:
TEN clinches the AFC South title with a win vs JAX. If TEN were to lose to JAX, NE would be guaranteed to finish ahead of them even at 8-9, so the division is TEN’s only non-tie path. TEN could still get a wildcard, but it would require a tie vs JAX and lots of help.
LV - 2 options
Option 1:
- LV wins out
- MIA loses out
- SEA defeats NYJ (W17)
- BUF defeats NE (W18)
- PIT loses a game
- JAX defeats TEN (W18)
Option 2:
- LV wins out
- MIA loses out
- SEA defeats NYJ (W17)
- BUF defeats NE (W18)
- PIT loses a game
- HOU defeats JAX (W17)
Notes:
The 3-way 8-9 AFC East tie goes to NE on head-to-head. LV/NE/PIT has PIT dropping on conference record and LV winning head-to-head over NE. If we add TEN to the mix, LV/NE/PIT/TEN has PIT & TEN dropping on conference record and LV winning head-to-head over NE. However, JAX wins literally every tiebreaker, so if JAX loses to TEN week 18 but wins week 17, JAX would win the 8-9 tiebreaker. Thus, we need to ensure that JAX cannot finish 8-9 and 2nd in the AFC South. We can accomplish this by having JAX win the AFC South or by giving JAX an extra loss to make them have more than 9 losses if they don’t win the AFC South.
For any questions, please head to the reddit post or reach out to me on Twitter!