Week 10 Mailbag

Welcome to our first mailbag post! If you have any questions for future posts, feel free to send us a message here!

Jeff M:

When do you see the 1st scenarios coming up?

Well, it depends on what scenarios you’re looking for. We shouldn’t see a clinching scenario until week 13 at the earliest (division or playoff). We can start seeing division elimination scenarios as early as week 11 (NYG, CHI, and ARI all have a chance). And there is the possibility of a playoff elimination for ARI as early as week 12. However, ARI can be knocked out of the 1 seed as early as this week.

 

 

Twitter User @Axiscour1:

Is Arizona out of the playoffs if they lose to the Falcons?

ARI is still alive in their division even if they lose to ATL. However, they can be knocked out of the 1 seed.

ARIARI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) ARIARI loss + SFSF win + SEASEA win
OR 2) ARIARI loss + SFSF win + SEASEA tie + DALDAL win + MINMIN win + DETDET win
OR 3) ARIARI loss + SFSF tie + SEASEA win + DALDAL win + MINMIN win + DETDET win

 

 

Twitter User @zot3p:

As of today all AFC North teams are making the playoffs. Has that ever happened this late in a season for a divison before?

Just last year, the NFC East had all 4 teams in playoff position in weeks 13, 15, 16, and 17!

Since realignment in 2002 when we were at 4-team divisions, no division has finished the season with all 4 teams in the top 7 in their conference standings. The closest we’ve come is in 2007 where DAL, NYG, and WAS all made the playoffs, and PHI tied with ARI & MIN for the 7th spot. However, MIN ultimately won that tiebreaker on conference record.

 

 

Noah H:

What is a realistic path for the Vikings to get the number one seed despite losing to Philly and only being in the 7th seed spot right now?

If we’re being realistic, it is unlikely that 12-5 will get the 1 seed in the NFC. It’s possible, but breaking that down requires such a massive set of possibilities for something that has a low probability of happening. So let’s start with the assumption that MIN wins out and goes 13-4.

MIN winning out would give DET 2 additional losses, and since MIN would have the head-to-head sweep, nothing DET does would matter. MIN also plays NO this week, so MIN winning out means NO gets a 5th loss, so we don’t care about them either. This leaves only 4 teams that could finish 13-4 or better and be in competition with MIN for the 1 seed - PHI, DAL, SF, and SEA.

Due to MIN’s head-to-head loss to PHI, one of 2 things are required. Either (A) PHI loses 4 games, or (B) PHI loses 3 games and one of DAL/SF/SEA finish exactly 13-4 to use other tiebreakers to get past that head-to-head.

For (A), the simplest path looks like this:

Option 1 - pass PHI & SEA on record and win tiebreakers vs DAL and/or SF:
1) MIN wins out
2) PHI loses 4 games
3) SEA loses 2 games
4) One of the following:
  4a) SF loses an NFC game + DAL loses a game
  4b) SF loses any game + DAL loses 2 games
  4c) SF loses 2 games + DAL loses a game

MIN is guaranteed to finish ahead of DAL. However, in a 3-way MIN/SF/DAL or MIN/SEA/DAL tie, if SF/SEA’s remaining loss is to an AFC team, SF/SEA will end up ahead of MIN in conference record. If their loss is to an NFC team, though, MIN will tie SF/SEA in conference record, DAL will drop out of the 3-way and we fall to 2-way tiebreakers. MIN has H2H on SF. However, SEA/MIN would fall to common games. MIN wins this if SEA’s loss is to SF or PHI. Otherwise, it falls to Strength of Victory. In the interest of simplicity, we just have SEA lose 2 games here, but a loss to SF or PHI works as well.

Also, while PHI losing 4 games sounds pretty tough, their next 5 games are KC, BUF, SF, DAL, and SEA, which are all difficult opponents.

For (B), we’ll look at options for using each of DAL/SEA/SF to pass PHI

Option 2 - Use SF to bypass PHI at 13-4:
1) MIN wins out
2) PHI loses to SF + 2 other NFC teams,
3) SF loses an NFC game and wins every other game
4) DAL loses a game

Here we have a round-robin head-to-head, so we fall straight to conference record. PHI losing 3 NFC games has them or DAL at 13-4 dropping out of the 3-way on conference record, and MIN takes the head-to-head over SF. Note that as mentioned above, if SF’s loss is to an AFC team, SF wins the 3-way tiebreaker on conference record (regardless if DAL or PHI wins the division at 13-4). PHI losing 3 NFC games is important, as that gives MIN the conference record jump on PHI. However, if one of PHI’s losses is to an AFC team instead, and SF’s loss is to an NFC team, the 3-way will fall to Strength of Victory which is up in the air, so for simplicity, we ignore that possibility. We also don’t care about SEA here because at 13-4, SF finishes ahead of SEA in the division (regardless of what team SF loses to), as SF & SEA still play each other twice, so the only way for both to be 13-4 is to split the series, and SF has division record in that case

Option 3 - Use SEA to bypass PHI at 13-4:
1) MIN wins out
2) PHI loses to SEA + 2 other NFC teams
3) SEA loses to SF and wins every other game

SEA’s loss to SF matters because it gives MIN common games over SEA. If SEA loses to anyone else in the NFC, the tiebreaker falls to Strength of Victory, and we’re ignoring that for simplicity. If SEA loses to an AFC team, SEA wins the 3-way on conference record. We don’t care about SF’s record here because as mentioned above, SEA & SF going 13-4 means that SF wins their division, and they beat PHI in the process, so we just end up with the SF situation above.

Option 4 - Use DAL to bypass PHI on division record:
1) MIN wins out
2) DAL loses 1 non-divison game and wins every other game
3) PHI loses to DAL & NYG & one other team
4) SF loses an NFC game or loses 2 games
5) SEA loses to PHI or SF or loses 2 games

In this situation, DAL beats PHI on division record. SF losing an NFC game means SF & MIN are tied in conference record ahead of DAL, so DAL drops out, and MIN wins the head-to-head. SEA losing to either PHI or SF means that MIN beats SEA on common opponents after DAL drops out on conference record.

Option 5 - Use DAL to bypass PHI on common opponents:
1) MIN wins out
2) DAL loses to either CAR or DET and wins every other game
3) PHI loses to DAL & loses 2 more games to any non-KC team
4) SF loses an NFC game or loses 2 games
5) SEA loses to PHI or SF or loses 2 games

In this situation, PHI loses common opponents to DAL. Any other loss by DAL or a KC loss by PHI means that, depending upon the combination, DAL loses either on common opponents, conference record, or the tiebreaker falls to Strength of Victory, which we’ve already said we don’t want to consider. The SF/SEA logic remains the same.

Finally, as mentioned above, elaborating on the 12-5 scenarios is a fool’s errand because they are unlikely and exceedingly complex, as we now have to consider DET, WAS, ATL, NO, & TB on top of PHI, DAL, SEA, and SF if we look at that.