- We have a mailbag now!
- Standings Entering Week 15
- Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 15
- Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 15
- Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 15
- Seed Control Entering Week 15
- Contact Us
We have a mailbag now!
Send a message here and we will have a Wednesday or Thursday post addressing a selection of them!
Due to the complexity of this week’s scenarios, odds are that this week’s mailbag will be released on Thursday.
Standings Entering Week 15
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 SFx |
10-3 | 8-1 | DAL wins the tiebreak over PHI on Division Record (4-1 vs 3-1). SF wins the tiebreak over DAL on Head-to-Head. |
| 2 |
 DAL |
10-3 | 7-3 | DAL wins the tiebreak over PHI on Division Record (4-1 vs 3-1). |
| 3 |
 DET |
9-4 | 6-3 | |
| 4 |
 TB |
6-7 | 5-4 | NO drops out of the tiebreak with ATL/TB on Head-to-Head (0-2 vs 2-1). TB wins the tiebreak over ATL on Common Games (4-2 vs 3-3). |
| 5 |
 PHI |
10-3 | 6-2 | |
| 6 |
 MIN |
7-6 | 6-3 | |
| 7 |
 GB |
6-7 | 4-4 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL drops out of the tiebreak with GB/LAR on Conference Record (4-5 vs 4-4). GB wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head. |
| 8 |
 LAR |
6-7 | 4-4 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). LAR wins the tiebreak over ATL on Conference Record (4-4 vs 4-5). |
| 9 |
 SEAk |
6-7 | 5-5 | ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). SEA wins the tiebreak over ATL on Conference Record (5-5 vs 4-5). |
| 10 |
 ATL |
6-7 | 4-5 | ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 11 |
 NO |
6-7 | 3-5 | |
| 12 |
 NYGk |
5-8 | 4-4 | NYG wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (4-4 vs 4-5). |
| 13 |
 CHIk |
5-8 | 4-5 | |
| 14 |
 WASk |
4-9 | 2-7 | |
| 15 |
 ARIk |
3-10 | 2-6 | |
| 16 |
 CARke |
1-12 | 0-9 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 BAL |
10-3 | 6-3 | |
| 2 |
 MIA |
9-4 | 6-3 | |
| 3 |
 KC |
8-5 | 6-2 | KC wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head. |
| 4 |
 JAX |
8-5 | 6-4 | |
| 5 |
 CLE |
8-5 | 6-3 | |
| 6 |
 PIT |
7-6 | 5-4 | PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). BUF/DEN drops out of the tiebreak with PIT/IND on Conference Record (4-5/4-5 vs 5-4). PIT wins the tiebreak over IND on Common Games (5-4 vs 5-5). |
| 7 |
 IND |
7-6 | 5-4 | IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). IND wins the tiebreak over BUF/DEN/CIN on Conference Record (5-4 vs 4-5/4-5/3-6). |
| 8 |
 HOU |
7-6 | 4-4 | HOU wins the tiebreak over BUF/DEN/CIN on Conference Record (4-4 vs 4-5/4-5/3-6). |
| 9 |
 DEN |
7-6 | 4-5 | BUF drops out of the tiebreak with CIN/DEN on Head-to-Head Sweep. DEN wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (4-5 vs 3-6). |
| 10 |
 CIN |
7-6 | 3-6 | CIN wins the tiebreak over BUF on Head-to-Head. |
| 11 |
 BUF |
7-6 | 4-5 | |
| 12 |
 LAC |
5-8 | 3-5 | LAC wins the tiebreak over LV on Head-to-Head (1-0). LAC wins the tiebreak over NYJ/TEN on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-6/3-6). |
| 13 |
 LV |
5-8 | 3-5 | LV wins the tiebreak over NYJ/TEN on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-6/3-6). |
| 14 |
 NYJk |
5-8 | 3-6 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Strength of Victory (36-29 vs 28-37). |
| 15 |
 TEN |
5-8 | 3-6 | |
| 16 |
 NEke |
3-10 | 3-5 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DAL |
10-3 | 4-1 | DAL wins the tiebreak over PHI on Division Record (4-1 vs 3-1). |
| 2 |
PHI |
10-3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 |
NYGk |
5-8 | 2-2 | |
| 4 |
WASk |
4-9 | 0-5 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DET |
9-4 | 2-2 | |
| 2 |
MIN |
7-6 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
GB |
6-7 | 2-2 | |
| 4 |
CHIk |
5-8 | 2-3 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
TB |
6-7 | 3-1 | NO drops out of the tiebreak with ATL/TB on Head-to-Head (0-2 vs 2-1). TB wins the tiebreak over ATL on Common Games (4-2 vs 3-3). |
| 2 |
ATL |
6-7 | 3-1 | ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 3 |
NO |
6-7 | 2-2 | |
| 4 |
CARke |
1-12 | 0-4 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
SFx |
10-3 | 4-0 | |
| 2 |
LAR |
6-7 | 4-1 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
| 3 |
SEAk |
6-7 | 1-4 | |
| 4 |
ARIk |
3-10 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
MIA |
9-4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
BUF |
7-6 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
NYJk |
5-8 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
NEke |
3-10 | 2-2 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
BAL |
10-3 | 3-2 | |
| 2 |
CLE |
8-5 | 3-2 | |
| 3 |
PIT |
7-6 | 3-1 | PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 4 |
CIN |
7-6 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
JAX |
8-5 | 4-1 | |
| 2 |
IND |
7-6 | 3-2 | IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 3 |
HOU |
7-6 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
TEN |
5-8 | 0-3 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
KC |
8-5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
DEN |
7-6 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
LAC |
5-8 | 1-2 | LAC wins the tiebreak over LV on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 4 |
LV |
5-8 | 1-2 |
x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 15
NFC
|
PHI clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
PHI win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
MIN loss/tie +
ATL loss/tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
MIN loss/tie +
ATL loss/tie +
SF win/tie +
DET win |
| OR | 4) |
MIN loss/tie +
TB loss +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 5) |
MIN loss/tie +
TB loss +
SF win/tie +
DET win |
| OR | 6) |
GB loss +
ATL loss/tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
GB loss +
ATL loss/tie +
SF win/tie +
DET win |
| OR | 8) |
GB tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 9) |
GB tie +
SF win/tie +
DET win |
|
DAL clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
DAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
TB loss +
DET win/tie +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
TB loss +
DET win/tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 4) |
TB loss +
MIN loss/tie +
DET win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
TB loss +
MIN loss/tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 6) |
TB loss +
MIN loss/tie +
SEA loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
TB tie +
DET win/tie |
| OR | 8) |
TB tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 9) |
TB tie +
SEA loss/tie |
| OR | 10) |
ATL loss/tie +
GB loss +
DET win/tie |
| OR | 11) |
ATL loss/tie +
GB loss +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 12) |
ATL loss/tie +
GB loss +
SEA loss/tie |
| OR | 13) |
ATL loss/tie +
MIN loss/tie +
DET win/tie |
| OR | 14) |
ATL loss/tie +
MIN loss/tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 15) |
ATL loss/tie +
MIN loss/tie +
SEA loss/tie |
| OR | 16) |
ATL loss/tie +
DET win/tie +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 17) |
ATL loss/tie +
DET win/tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 18) |
SEA loss/tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 19) |
SEA loss/tie +
MIN loss + NYG win + NE win + CLE win + PIT win + TEN win + LAC win |
The results in italics are for DAL clinching a tie in Strength of Victory vs ATL
|
DET clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
DET win +
SEA loss/tie +
GB loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DET win +
SEA loss/tie +
MIN loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
DET win +
SEA loss/tie +
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 4) |
DET win +
LAR loss/tie +
ATL loss/tie +
MIN loss/tie |
| OR | 5) |
DET win +
LAR loss/tie +
TB loss +
MIN loss/tie |
| OR | 6) |
DET win +
LAR loss/tie +
GB loss +
ATL loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
DET win +
LAR loss/tie +
GB tie |
| OR | 8) |
DET tie +
TB loss +
SEA loss +
LAR loss |
| OR | 9) |
DET tie +
ATL loss +
SEA loss +
LAR loss |
| OR | 10) |
DET tie +
MIN loss +
SEA loss +
LAR loss |
| OR | 11) |
DET tie +
GB loss +
SEA loss +
LAR loss |
| OR | 12) |
DET tie +
GB loss +
SEA loss +
ATL loss/tie |
| OR | 13) |
DET tie +
GB loss +
LAR loss +
ATL loss/tie +
NO loss/tie |
| OR | 14) |
DET tie +
GB tie +
MIN loss +
LAR loss +
ATL loss/tie |
| OR | 15) |
DET tie +
GB tie +
MIN loss +
SEA loss +
ATL loss/tie |
| OR | 16) |
DET tie +
GB tie +
MIN loss +
SEA loss +
LAR tie |
|
SF clinches the NFC West division title with: |
| 1) |
SF win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LAR loss/tie |
AFC
|
BAL clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
BAL win +
PIT loss/tie +
BUF loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
BAL win +
PIT loss/tie +
DEN loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
BAL win +
PIT tie +
CLE loss/tie |
| OR | 4) |
BAL win +
PIT tie +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR | 5) |
BAL win +
BUF loss/tie +
DEN loss/tie |
| OR | 6) |
BAL win +
CLE loss/tie +
BUF loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
BAL win +
CLE loss/tie +
DEN loss/tie |
| OR | 8) |
BAL win +
HOU loss/tie +
BUF loss/tie |
| OR | 9) |
BAL win +
HOU loss/tie +
DEN loss/tie |
| OR | 10) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
BUF loss |
| OR | 11) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
IND loss +
HOU loss |
| OR | 12) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
IND loss +
HOU tie +
CLE loss |
| OR | 13) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
IND loss +
CLE loss +
BUF win +
MIA win/tie |
| OR | 14) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
PIT loss +
HOU loss/tie +
CIN loss/tie |
| OR | 15) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
PIT loss +
HOU loss/tie +
CLE loss |
| OR | 16) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
PIT loss +
CIN loss/tie +
CLE loss |
| OR | 17) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
PIT loss +
CIN loss/tie +
BUF win +
MIA win/tie |
| OR | 18) |
BAL tie +
DEN loss +
PIT loss +
CLE loss +
BUF win +
MIA win/tie |
| OR | 19) |
BAL tie +
BUF loss +
IND loss +
HOU loss |
| OR | 20) |
BAL tie +
BUF loss +
IND loss +
HOU tie +
CLE loss |
| OR | 21) |
BAL tie +
BUF loss +
PIT loss +
HOU loss/tie +
CIN loss/tie |
| OR | 22) |
BAL tie +
BUF loss +
PIT loss +
HOU loss/tie +
CLE loss |
| OR | 23) |
BAL tie +
BUF loss +
PIT loss +
HOU loss/tie +
KC loss |
| OR | 24) |
BAL tie +
BUF loss +
PIT loss +
CLE loss +
CIN loss/tie |
| OR | 25) |
BAL tie +
BUF loss +
PIT loss +
CLE loss +
KC loss |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 15
LAC & LV elimination scenarios are proving to be exceedingly challenging. It is possible that they will not be complete this week. Neither team can be eliminated prior to Sunday, but Thursday & Saturday’s games will have a substantial impact. If all else fails, the elimination scenarios will be calculated on Saturday for the needed team if an elimination scenario still exists for them. Note that neither can be eliminated with a win/tie, and they play each other on Thursday.
NFC
|
WAS is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
WAS loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
WAS tie +
MIN win/tie +
CHI win +
ATL win +
GB win +
NO win |
|
ARI is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
ARI loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
ARI tie +
LAR win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
ARI tie +
GB win |
| OR | 4) |
ARI tie +
TB win |
| OR | 5) |
ARI tie +
ATL win/tie |
| OR | 6) |
ARI tie +
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 7) |
ARI tie +
SEA win |
| OR | 8) |
ARI tie +
NYG win |
| OR | 9) |
LAR win +
MIN win/tie |
| OR | 10) |
LAR win +
GB win/tie |
| OR | 11) |
LAR win +
NO win/tie +
CHI win +
ATL win/tie |
| OR | 12) |
LAR win +
NO win/tie +
CHI tie +
ATL win |
| OR | 13) |
LAR tie +
MIN win/tie +
NYG win +
TB win/tie +
ATL win +
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 14) |
LAR tie +
MIN win/tie +
NO win/tie +
GB win +
ATL win +
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 15) |
LAR tie +
MIN win/tie +
NO win/tie +
GB win +
ATL tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 16) |
LAR tie +
MIN win/tie +
GB tie +
ATL win +
CHI win |
| OR | 17) |
MIN win/tie +
GB win +
NO win +
ATL win +
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 18) |
MIN win/tie +
GB win +
NO win +
ATL tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 19) |
MIN win/tie +
GB tie +
NO win/tie +
ATL win +
CHI win |
|
LAR is knocked out of NFC West title contention with: |
| 1) |
LAR loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
SF win/tie |
|
LAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
LAR loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
PHI win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
SF win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
DAL win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
DET win/tie |
| OR | 6) |
MIN win |
|
GB is knocked out of NFC North title contention with: |
| 1) |
GB loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
GB tie +
DET win |
| OR | 3) |
GB tie +
DET tie +
MIN tie |
| OR | 4) |
GB tie +
MIN win |
| OR | 5) |
DET win +
MIN win |
|
GB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
GB loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DAL win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
PHI win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
SF win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
DET win/tie |
| OR | 6) |
MIN win |
| OR | 7) |
LAR loss/tie |
|
MIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
MIN loss +
PHI win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
MIN loss +
DAL win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
MIN loss +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
MIN loss +
DET win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
MIN tie +
PHI win |
| OR | 6) |
MIN tie +
SF win |
| OR | 7) |
MIN tie +
DAL win |
| OR | 8) |
MIN tie +
DAL tie +
DET win |
|
TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
TB loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DAL win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
PHI win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
SF win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
DET win/tie |
| OR | 6) |
LAR loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
MIN loss + 1 or more combined wins from (NYG, CLE) |
| OR | 8) |
MIN loss + 0.5 combined wins from (NYG, CLE) + 1.5 or more combined wins from (ATL, BAL, HOU, IND) |
| OR | 9) |
MIN loss + 0.5 combined wins from (NYG, CLE) + BAL win |
| OR | 10) |
MIN loss + 0.5 combined wins from (NYG, CLE) + BAL tie + 0.5 combined wins from (ATL, HOU, IND) |
| OR | 11) |
MIN loss + 2.5 or more combined wins from (ATL, BAL, HOU, IND) |
| OR | 12) |
MIN loss + BAL win + 1 combined wins from (ATL, HOU, IND) |
| OR | 13) |
MIN loss + BAL tie + 1.5 combined wins from (ATL, HOU) |
| OR | 14) |
MIN tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (NYG, CLE) |
| OR | 15) |
MIN tie + 1 combined wins from (NYG, CLE) + 0.5 or more combined wins from (ATL, BAL, HOU, IND) |
| OR | 16) |
MIN tie + 0.5 combined wins from (NYG, CLE) + 2 or more combined wins from (ATL, BAL, HOU, IND) |
| OR | 17) |
MIN tie + 0.5 combined wins from (NYG, CLE) + BAL win + 0.5 combined wins from (ATL, HOU, IND) |
| OR | 18) |
MIN tie + 0.5 combined wins from (NYG, CLE) + BAL tie + IND tie + 0.5 combined wins from (ATL, HOU) |
| OR | 19) |
MIN tie + 0.5 combined wins from (NYG, CLE) + BAL tie + 1 combined wins from (ATL, HOU) |
| OR | 20) |
MIN tie + 3 or more combined wins from (ATL, BAL, HOU, IND) |
| OR | 21) |
MIN tie + BAL win + 1.5 combined wins from (ATL, HOU) |
| OR | 22) |
MIN tie + BAL win + IND tie + 1 combined wins from (ATL, HOU) |
The portions in italics are for LAR either clinching Strength of Victory over TB or clinching a tie in Strength of Victory and clinching Strength of Schedule
AFC
|
NYJ is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
NYJ loss +
BUF win +
IND win |
|
| OR | 2) |
NYJ loss +
BUF win +
PIT win |
| OR | 3) |
NYJ loss +
BUF win +
HOU win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
NYJ loss +
BUF win +
CIN win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
NYJ loss +
BUF win +
DEN win +
LV win |
| OR | 6) |
NYJ loss +
BUF tie +
DEN win +
LAC win +
IND win |
| OR | 7) |
NYJ loss +
BUF tie +
DEN win +
LAC win +
PIT win |
| OR | 8) |
NYJ loss +
BUF tie +
DEN win +
LAC win +
HOU win/tie |
| OR | 9) |
NYJ loss +
BUF tie +
DEN win +
LAC win +
CIN win/tie |
| OR | 10) |
NYJ loss +
IND win +
CIN win +
HOU win/tie |
| OR | 11) |
NYJ loss +
CLE win/tie +
IND win +
CIN win |
| OR | 12) |
NYJ loss +
CLE win/tie +
PIT win +
HOU win |
| OR | 13) |
NYJ loss +
CLE win/tie +
PIT win +
HOU tie +
DEN win +
LV win |
| OR | 14) |
NYJ loss +
CLE win/tie +
PIT tie +
CIN win/tie +
HOU win/tie |
| OR | 15) |
NYJ loss +
CLE win/tie +
PIT tie +
CIN win/tie +
DEN win +
LV win |
| OR | 16) |
NYJ loss +
PIT tie +
CIN win/tie +
HOU win/tie +
DEN win +
LV win |
|
TEN is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
| 1) |
TEN loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
TEN tie +
JAX win |
|
TEN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
TEN loss +
IND win |
|
| OR | 2) |
TEN loss +
PIT win |
| OR | 3) |
TEN loss +
CIN win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
TEN loss +
DEN win +
LV win |
| OR | 5) |
TEN loss +
BUF win +
DEN win +
LAC win |
|
LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with: |
| 1) |
LV loss +
KC win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LV loss +
DEN win |
| OR | 3) |
LV tie +
KC win |
|
LV is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
LV loss +
KC win/tie + An absurd set of permutations |
|
| OR | 2) |
LV loss +
DEN win + An absurd set of permuations |
LV cannot be eliminated with a win/tie, and cannot be eliminated prior to Sunday. If an elimination scenario still exists for them after Saturday’s games, a complete elimination scenario for the remaining games will be calculated and put in the live post before Sunday’s games kick off.
|
LAC is knocked out of AFC West title contention with: |
| 1) |
LAC loss +
KC win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LAC loss +
DEN win |
| OR | 3) |
LAC tie +
KC win |
|
LAC is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
LAC loss +
KC win/tie + An absurd set of permutations |
|
| OR | 2) |
LAC loss +
DEN win + An absurd set of permuations |
LAC cannot be eliminated with a win/tie, and cannot be eliminated prior to Sunday. If an elimination scenario still exists for them after Saturday’s games, a complete elimination scenario for the remaining games will be calculated and put in the live post before Sunday’s games kick off.
|
PIT is knocked out of AFC North title contention with: |
| 1) |
PIT loss +
BAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
PIT tie +
BAL win |
|
PIT is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
PIT loss +
BAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
PIT loss +
MIA win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
PIT tie +
BAL win |
| OR | 4) |
PIT tie +
BAL tie +
MIA win |
|
CIN is knocked out of AFC North title contention with: |
| 1) |
CIN loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
CIN tie +
BAL tie |
| OR | 3) |
BAL win |
|
CIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
CIN loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
CIN tie +
BAL win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
CIN tie +
MIA win |
| OR | 4) |
CIN tie +
MIA tie +
BUF loss |
| OR | 5) |
BAL win |
| OR | 6) |
BAL tie +
MIA win +
BUF loss/tie |
|
BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
BUF loss +
BAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
BUF loss +
MIA win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
BUF tie +
BAL win |
| OR | 4) |
BUF tie +
BAL tie +
MIA win |
|
JAX is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
JAX loss +
MIA win +
BUF loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
JAX loss +
PIT loss/tie +
DEN loss/tie +
BUF loss/tie |
|
IND is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
IND loss +
BAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
IND loss +
MIA win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
IND tie +
BAL win |
| OR | 4) |
IND tie +
BAL tie +
MIA win |
|
HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
HOU loss +
BAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
HOU loss +
MIA win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
HOU tie +
BAL win |
| OR | 4) |
HOU tie +
BAL tie +
MIA win |
| OR | 5) |
HOU tie +
BAL tie +
MIA tie +
BUF loss +
PIT loss |
| OR | 6) |
HOU tie +
BAL tie +
BUF loss +
PIT loss +
CLE loss +
DEN loss |
| OR | 7) |
HOU tie +
MIA win/tie +
BUF loss +
PIT loss +
CLE loss +
DEN loss |
| OR | 8) |
BAL win +
MIA win +
BUF loss/tie +
PIT loss/tie |
| OR | 9) |
BAL win +
BUF loss/tie +
PIT loss/tie +
CLE loss/tie +
DEN loss/tie |
| OR | 10) |
BAL tie +
MIA win +
BUF loss/tie +
PIT loss/tie +
CLE loss/tie +
DEN loss/tie |
|
DEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
DEN loss +
BAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DEN loss +
MIA win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
DEN tie +
BAL win |
| OR | 4) |
DEN tie +
BAL tie +
MIA win |
| OR | 5) |
DEN tie +
BAL tie +
MIA tie +
BUF loss |
| OR | 6) |
BAL win +
MIA win +
BUF loss/tie |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 15
We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SF |
40% | 47% | 13% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||
|
DAL |
29% | 21% | 6% | <1% | 44% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
|
DET |
5% | 16% | 67% | <1% | <1% | 10% | 1% | <1% |
|
TB |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 37% | 2% | 7% | 54% | |
|
PHI |
26% | 16% | 3% | 55% | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
|
MIN |
<1% | 1% | 11% | <1% | <1% | 51% | 18% | 19% |
|
GB |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 15% | 18% | 67% |
|
LAR |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 9% | 20% | 71% |
|
SEA |
<1% | 8% | 18% | 74% | ||||
|
ATL |
<1% | 34% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 60% | ||
|
NO |
<1% | 29% | 1% | 5% | 65% | |||
|
NYG |
1% | 6% | 93% | |||||
|
CHI |
1% | 3% | 96% | |||||
|
WAS |
<1% | <1% | >99% | |||||
|
ARI |
<1% | <1% | >99% | |||||
|
CAR |
100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BAL |
68% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
|
MIA |
23% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
|
KC |
3% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 9% |
|
JAX |
4% | 14% | 26% | 32% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 11% |
|
CLE |
3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | 49% | 19% | 11% | 16% |
|
PIT |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 12% | 17% | 15% | 56% |
|
IND |
<1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 12% | 14% | 58% |
|
HOU |
<1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 13% | 58% |
|
DEN |
<1% | 1% | 5% | 11% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 60% |
|
CIN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 63% |
|
BUF |
<1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 11% | 69% |
|
LAC |
<1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% | |
|
LV |
<1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% | |
|
NYJ |
<1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | ||||
|
TEN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | |
|
NE |
100% |
Seed Control Entering Week 15
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
SF(2)
MIA
BAL
Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI(1)
Teams that control the 3 seed:
DET
MIN(6)
KC
Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB
NO(E)
JAX(3)
Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL
CLE(6)
Teams that control the 6 seed:
None
Teams that control the 7 seed:
GB
PIT(6)
IND(6)
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
NYG
WAS
CHI
ATL(4)
CAR
LAR(7)
SEA
ARI
BUF
NYJ
NE
CIN
HOU(6)
TEN
DEN
LAC
LV
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