Introduction (Please read before asking questions)

With only 2 weeks to go, the playoff picture is becoming increasingly clear. With that said, we have at least one clear path for any team that has not yet clinched and is not yet eliminated to make the playoffs. This post is here to show at least one way for each team to make the playoffs. Note that the scenarios listed here are not exhaustive - there may be other ways for these teams to reach the playoffs. The scenarios listed here are the least complex ways (or at least a subset thereof). As such they will exclude ties and Strength of Victory scenarios.

Also, please note that there was a lot of manual input to make this post, and I am confident there will be issues on the initial post. I will correct these issues as they are identified.

Playoff Picture Entering Week 17

TB - 1 simple option

Simplest Option:

  • TB wins a game

Notes:
TB winning a game will clinch the NFC South for TB. TB could still get a playoff berth if they lose out, but it would require either a GB/MIN tie or SEA & LAR to lose out as well as TB clinching a tight Strength of Victory over LAR, so we leave it out here.

 

LAR - 3 options

Option 1:

  • LAR wins out

Option 2:

  • LAR wins a game
  • SEA loses a game

Option 3:

  • LAR wins a game
  • GB loses a game
  • MIN loses a game

Notes:
LAR cannot be passed by any of the NFC South teams due to a superior conference record. LAR is also guaranteed to finish ahead of SEA in the division due to their head-to-head wins. Thus, if we can get LAR guaranteed a tie over SEA, LAR makes the playoffs. Alternatively, if we can get GB & MIN both to 9 losses, with LAR at 9 wins, LAR is in.

 

SEA - 2 options

Option 1:

  • SEA wins out

Option 2:

  • SEA wins a game
  • GB loses a game
  • MIN loses a game

Notes:
Even though one game for SEA is NFC and the other is AFC, it turns out that it doesn’t really matter which game they win. The way they win and lose tiebreakers is different, but it ultimately comes down to MIN will win a tiebreaker, GB/SEA could come down to SoV if SEA defeats ARI, but GB has a substantial edge, and GB wins if SEA’s loss is to ARI. On the other side, neither usable NFC South team could pass SEA in a tiebreaker regardless of what conference record SEA finishes with. We also have to consider that if LAR finishes with the exact same record as SEA, LAR would have to win tiebreakers, too. Since LAR loses tiebreakers to MIN & GB and wins tiebreakers vs NO & ATL, Option 2 remains safe no matter how LAR finishes.

 

MIN - 2 options

Option 1:

  • MIN wins out
  • LAR loses a game

Option 2:

  • MIN wins out
  • SEA loses a game

Notes:
If MIN wins out, the only team they can’t win every tiebreaker against is TB. However, TB at 9-8 will win the NFC South, so they aren’t useful for wildcard purposes. That means as long as we can get all but 2 wildcard teams to 8 losses, MIN is in.

 

NO - 4 options

Option 1:

  • NO wins out
  • TB loses week 18

Option 2:

  • NO wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • SEA loses out

Option 3:

  • NO wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • MIN loses a game
  • GB loses a game

Option 4:

  • NO wins out
  • SEA loses out
  • MIN loses a game
  • GB loses a game

Notes:
Option 1 here clinches the NFC South title for NO. Options 2, 3, and 4 are wildcard clinches. NO loses all tiebreakers to everybody, so they’d have to clinch outright.

 

ATL - 6 options

Option 1:

  • ATL wins week 18
  • TB loses out

Option 2:

  • ATL wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • SEA loses out

Option 3:

  • ATL wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • MIN loses a game
  • GB loses a game

Option 4:

  • ATL wins out
  • SEA loses out
  • MIN loses a game
  • GB loses a game

Option 5:

  • ATL wins out
  • SEA loses out
  • LAR wins out
  • MIN loses a game

Option 6:

  • ATL wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • SEA wins out
  • MIN loses a game

Notes:
Option 1 clinches the NFC South title. ATL’s week 17 game doesn’t matter for this one because the 3-way ATL/TB/NO tie at 8-9 would go to ATL on head-to-head. Options 2-4 force a clinch on pure record, as ATL loses tiebreakers to LAR & MIN, and has to clinch Strength of Victory over SEA in the best case. However, ATL does have a head-to-head victory over GB, so if we can force a 2-way tie for the 7 seed with GB, ATL can advance that way. That’s covered by Options 5 & 6.

 

GB - 5 options

Option 1:

  • GB wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • SEA loses out

Option 2:

  • GB wins out
  • LAR loses exactly 1 game

Option 3:

  • GB wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • ATL loses a game

Option 4:

  • GB wins out
  • SEA wins week 17
  • SEA loses week 18

Option 5:

  • GB wins out
  • SEA loses out
  • ATL loses a game

Notes:
GB wins tiebreakers over NO & LAR. They win the tiebreaker vs SEA if SEA loses to an NFC team (week 18). They have conference record over ATL, but a head-to-head loss. Thus, our paths involve either forcing a 3-way tie with ATL to get past that head-to-head (options 2 & 4), or just clinching a spot on record alone (options 1, 3, and 5).

 

CHI - 2 options

Option 1:

  • CHI wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • SEA loses out
  • NO loses a game
  • GB loses week 17

Option 2:

  • CHI wins out
  • LAR loses out
  • SEA loses out
  • NO loses a game
  • MIN loses out

Notes:
Barring a GB/MIN tie, CHI is guaranteed to finish behind 1 of them, as they lose the tiebreaker to GB & MIN (both 2-way and 3-way). This means GB or MIN has to take the 6 seed, so SEA & LAR need to lose out. We also need to make sure the MIN doesn’t finish ahead of CHI if they lose to GB week 17, which is what’s happening in Option 2. We need NO to lose a game to get them tied on record. Because we’ll be involved in a 3-way tie with LAR, the ATL head-to-head vs GB gets bypassed.

 

KC - 2 options

Option 1:

  • KC wins a game

Option 2:

  • DEN loses a game
  • LV loses a game

Notes:
These both clinch the AFC West title. There are numerous paths to getting KC in even if they lose the division, but they are way more complicated than these, so we leave them out based on our “least complex” criteria.

JAX - 2 options

Option 1:

  • JAX wins out

Option 2:

  • JAX wins a game
  • IND loses a game
  • HOU loses a game

Notes:
These both clinch the AFC South title. There are ways for JAX to clinch a playoff berth without clinching the AFC South, but adding those violates the “least complex” criteria.

 

CLE - 5 options

Option 1:

  • CLE wins a game

Option 2:

  • IND loses a game
  • HOU loses a game

Option 3:

  • JAX loses a game

Option 4:

  • BUF loses a game

Option 5:

  • PIT loses a game

Notes:
All of these except the BUF loss give CLE a playoff berth on pure record, with the exception of BUF & CIN (who tie CLE, but CLE wins the tiebreaker).

 

BUF - 6 options

Option 1:

  • BUF wins out

Option 2:

  • BUF wins a game
  • PIT loses a game
  • CIN loses a game

Option 3:

  • BUF wins a game
  • PIT loses a game
  • JAX loses a game

Option 4:

  • BUF wins a game
  • PIT loses a game
  • IND loses a game
  • HOU loses a game

Option 5:

  • BUF wins a game
  • CIN loses a game
  • JAX loses a game

Option 6:

  • BUF wins a game
  • CIN loses a game
  • IND loses a game
  • HOU loses a game

Notes:
All of these clinch on record alone. BUF basically loses every tiebreaker, so we have to clinch on pure record.

 

IND - 4 options

Option 1:

  • IND wins out
  • CIN loses a game

Option 2:

  • IND wins out
  • JAX loses a game

Option 3:

  • IND wins week 18
  • JAX loses out

Option 4:

  • IND wins week 17
  • HOU loses week 17
  • JAX loses out

Notes:
The most meaningful tiebreaker IND loses is against CIN. This is the team that currently prevents them from controlling their own destiny, so we remove them in Option 1. Options 2-4 are all about clinching the AFC South. IND is guaranteed to win the tiebreaker against HOU, but both lose the tiebreaker to JAX, so we just need to keep IND & HOU even with JAX behind, noting that IND plays HOU in week 18. Note that IND could still clinch a wildcard berth with a loss, but it is complex enough to ignore in this post.

 

HOU - 2 options

Option 1:

  • HOU wins out

Option 2:

  • HOU wins week 18
  • IND loses week 17
  • JAX loses out

Notes:
If HOU wins out, they have conference record on BUF & CIN, and they have head-to-head over PIT. This allows CIN & PIT to effectively be guaranteed behind them even at 10-7, which combined with the loss IND gets to HOU in week 18, allows only CLE & BUF to pass HOU, and to be eliminated, we’d need a 3rd team to pass. Option 2 is a backup option for clinching the AFC South. HOU loses all the fun tiebreakers, so for Option 2, we need IND & JAX to lose out. Note that HOU could still clinch a non-division playoff berth even with a loss, but it is complex enough to ignore in this post.

 

PIT - 4 options

Option 1:

  • PIT wins out
  • BUF loses a game

Option 2:

  • PIT wins out
  • JAX loses a game

Option 3:

  • PIT wins out
  • CLE loses out

Option 4:

  • PIT wins out
  • IND loses a game
  • HOU loses a game

Notes: PIT wins tiebreakers vs CLE & CIN & BUF, but doesn’t have a way to win a tiebreaker against the AFC South teams. Because HOU & IND play each other in week 18, and CIN is already guaranteed behind PIT, PIT only needs one other team to fall behind them to clinch a top 7 seed. As with other teams, there are paths for PIT if they lose a game, but we won’t lay them out here.

 

CIN - 5 options

Option 1:

  • CIN wins out
  • PIT loses a game
  • HOU loses a game

Option 2:

  • CIN wins out
  • PIT loses a game
  • BUF loses a game

Option 3:

  • CIN wins out
  • PIT loses a game
  • JAX loses a game

Option 4:

  • CIN wins out
  • JAX loses a game
  • BUF loses a game

Option 5:

  • CIN wins out
  • BUF loses a game
  • IND loses a game
  • HOU loses a game

Notes:
CIN is in a peculiar spot where they lose conference record to everyone (and division record or head-to-head to PIT/CLE), but they have head-to-head wins over every non-division opponent except HOU. Thus, any situation in which we can force a tie with any non-division, non-HOU team puts CIN ahead. However, if PIT wins out as well, PIT is guaranteed to finish ahead of CIN in division, and does not have the same tiebreaker fortunes, so PIT’s bad tiebreaker odds can end up hurting CIN, which complicates matters a bit, and is why PIT losing a game is more substantial to CIN than any other individual team.

 

DEN - 2 options

Option 1:

  • DEN wins out
  • KC loses out

Option 2:

  • DEN wins out
  • PIT loses out
  • JAX loses out
  • BUF loses out
  • CIN loses a game

Notes:
Option 1 clinches the division for DEN. Option 2 is one of the setups that gets DEN into a wildcard. This is not the only way, but it is simpler than any other setup. DEN has tiebreakers over CIN & BUF, but has an unfavorable tiebreaker situation against the rest, so here, we just ensure the 10th and below seeds are at 9 losses, with CIN & BUF at 9-8 behind DEN.

 

LV - 5 options

Option 1:

  • LV wins out
  • KC loses out

Option 2:

  • LV wins out
  • JAX wins week 17
  • JAX loses week 18
  • PIT loses week 18
  • BUF loses out

Option 3:

  • LV wins out
  • JAX wins week 17
  • JAX loses week 18
  • PIT loses week 18
  • CIN loses a game

Option 4:

  • LV wins out
  • HOU wins week 17
  • IND wins week 18
  • PIT loses week 18
  • CIN loses a game

Option 5:

  • LV wins out
  • HOU wins week 17
  • IND wins week 18
  • PIT loses week 18
  • BUF loses out

Notes:
Option 1 has LV clinching their division. For the other options, LV has a pretty good conference record, but is a bit hamstrung by their head-to-head losses vs PIT & BUF. On the other end, LV winning out means they beat IND in week 17, which helps them out a bit. The basic idea behind any of these setups is to force an AFC South team into a multi-way tie with PIT or BUF to bypass the head-to-head losses. The JAX & PIT losses in week 18 ensure that LV will win the conference record tiebreaker over them, and with an AFC South team forced into the tiebreaker mix, LV can use this to get past the needed teams.

 

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