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Standings Entering Week 17

                                                                         
        NFCNFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SFSFxy 11-4 9-1 SF wins the tiebreak over PHI/DET on Conference Record (9-1 vs 7-3/7-3).
2 PHIPHIx 11-4 7-3 PHI wins the tiebreak over DET on Strength of Victory (79-86 vs 72-93).
3 DETDETxy 11-4 7-3  
4 TBTB 8-7 6-4  
5 DALDALx 10-5 7-3  
6 LARLARk 8-7 6-4 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0).
7 SEASEAk 8-7 6-5  
8 MINMINk 7-8 6-4 MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). MIN wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head.
9 ATLATL 7-8 4-6 ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head.
10 GBGBk 7-8 5-5 GB wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head.
11 NONO 7-8 4-6  
12 CHICHIk 6-9 5-5  
13 NYGNYGke 5-10 4-6  
14 WASWASke 4-11 2-8  
15 ARIARIke 3-12 2-8  
16 CARCARke 2-13 1-10  
         
        AFCAFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BALBALx 12-3 7-3  
2 MIAMIAx 11-4 7-3  
3 KCKC 9-6 7-3  
4 JAXJAX 8-7 6-5 JAX wins the tiebreak over HOU/IND on Head-to-Head (3-1 vs 1-2/1-2).
5 CLECLE 10-5 7-3  
6 BUFBUF 9-6 5-5  
7 INDIND 8-7 6-4 IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). IND wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
8 HOUHOU 8-7 5-5 PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). HOU wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
9 PITPITk 8-7 6-5 PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0).
10 CINCINk 8-7 3-7  
11 LVLV 7-8 5-5 LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
12 DENDEN 7-8 4-6  
13 NYJNYJke 6-9 3-7  
14 TENTENke 5-10 3-7 TEN wins the tiebreak over LAC on Head-to-Head.
15 LACLACke 5-10 3-7  
16 NENEke 4-11 4-6  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec  Explanation 
1 PHIPHIx 11-4 4-1  
2 DALDALx 10-5 4-1  
3 NYGNYGke 5-10 2-3  
4 WASWASke 4-11 0-5  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec  Explanation 
1 DETDETxy 11-4 3-2  
2 MINMINk 7-8 2-2 MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 GBGBk 7-8 2-2  
4 CHICHIk 6-9 2-3  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec  Explanation 
1 TBTB 8-7 3-1  
2 ATLATL 7-8 3-2 ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 NONO 7-8 2-2  
4 CARCARke 2-13 1-4  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec  Explanation 
1 SFSFxy 11-4 5-0  
2 LARLARk 8-7 4-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0).
3 SEASEAk 8-7 1-4  
4 ARIARIke 3-12 0-5  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec  Explanation 
1 MIAMIAx 11-4 4-1  
2 BUFBUF 9-6 2-2  
3 NYJNYJke 6-9 1-4  
4 NENEke 4-11 2-2  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec  Explanation 
1 BALBALx 12-3 3-2  
2 CLECLE 10-5 3-2  
3 PITPITk 8-7 4-1 PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0).
4 CINCINk 8-7 0-5  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec  Explanation 
1 JAXJAX 8-7 4-1 JAX wins the tiebreak over HOU/IND on Head-to-Head (3-1 vs 1-2/1-2).
2 INDIND 8-7 3-2 IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 HOUHOU 8-7 2-2  
4 TENTENke 5-10 0-4  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec  Explanation 
1 KCKC 9-6 3-2  
2 LVLV 7-8 3-2 LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 DENDEN 7-8 2-2  
4 LACLACke 5-10 1-3  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 


Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFCNFC

SFSF clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) SFSF win + PHIPHI loss + DETDET loss

 

PHIPHI clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) PHIPHI win + DALDAL loss/tie
OR 2) PHIPHI tie + DALDAL loss

 

TBTB clinches the NFC South division title with:
         1) TBTB win
OR 2) TBTB tie + ATLATL loss

 

LARLAR clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LARLAR win + SEASEA loss
OR 2) LARLAR win + MINMIN/ GBGB tie

 

SEASEA clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) SEASEA win + MINMIN/ GBGB tie

 

 

 

AFCAFC

BALBAL clinches the AFC North division title with:
         1) BALBAL win/tie
OR 2) CLECLE loss/tie

 

BALBAL clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) BALBAL win

 

MIAMIA clinches the AFC East division title with:
         1) MIAMIA win/tie
OR 2) BUFBUF loss/tie

 

KCKC clinches the AFC West division title with:
         1) KCKC win/tie
OR 2) DENDEN loss/tie + LVLV loss/tie

 

JAXJAX clinches the AFC South division title with:
         1) JAXJAX win + INDIND loss + HOUHOU loss

 

CLECLE clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) CLECLE win/tie
OR 2) PITPIT loss/tie
OR 3) BUFBUF loss
OR 4) JAXJAX loss/tie
OR 5) HOUHOU loss/tie + INDIND loss/tie

 

BUFBUF clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) BUFBUF win + PITPIT loss/tie + CINCIN loss/tie
OR 2) BUFBUF win + PITPIT loss/tie + JAXJAX loss/tie
OR 3) BUFBUF win + PITPIT loss/tie + INDIND loss/tie + HOUHOU loss/tie
OR 4) BUFBUF win + CINCIN loss/tie + JAXJAX loss/tie
OR 5) BUFBUF win + CINCIN loss/tie + INDIND loss/tie + HOUHOU loss/tie
OR 6) BUFBUF tie + PITPIT loss + CINCIN loss + JAXJAX loss
OR 7) BUFBUF tie + PITPIT loss + CINCIN loss + HOUHOU loss/tie
OR 8) BUFBUF tie + PITPIT loss + CINCIN loss + INDIND loss/tie
OR 9) BUFBUF tie + PITPIT loss + JAXJAX loss + HOUHOU loss/tie
OR 10) BUFBUF tie + PITPIT loss + JAXJAX loss + INDIND loss/tie
OR 11) BUFBUF tie + PITPIT loss + HOUHOU loss + INDIND loss
OR 12) BUFBUF tie + CINCIN loss + JAXJAX loss + HOUHOU loss/tie
OR 13) BUFBUF tie + CINCIN loss + JAXJAX loss + INDIND loss/tie
OR 14) BUFBUF tie + CINCIN loss + HOUHOU loss + INDIND loss

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFCNFC

MINMIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MINMIN loss + SEASEA win/tie + LARLAR win/tie
OR 2) MINMIN loss + SEASEA win/tie + TBTB tie + ATLATL win
OR 3) MINMIN loss + LARLAR win/tie + TBTB tie + ATLATL win
OR 4) MINMIN tie + SEASEA win + LARLAR win

 

GBGB is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) GBGB loss + SEASEA win/tie
OR 2) GBGB loss + LARLAR win/tie
OR 3) GBGB loss + TBTB tie + ATLATL win
OR 4) GBGB loss + NONO win + ATLATL win + ARI win + 6.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, WAS, CIN, CLE, IND, JAX, DEN)
OR 5) GBGB tie + SEASEA win + LARLAR win

The portion of the scenarios in italics are for LAR clinching Strength of Victory over GB

 

CHICHI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CHICHI loss/tie
OR 2) SEASEA win/tie + LARLAR win/tie
OR 3) SEASEA win/tie + GBGB win
OR 4) SEASEA win/tie + MINMIN win
OR 5) LARLAR win/tie + GBGB win
OR 6) LARLAR win/tie + MINMIN win

 

NONO is knocked out of NFC South title contention with:
         1) NONO loss/tie

 

NONO is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NONO loss
OR 2) NONO tie + SEASEA win/tie + LARLAR win/tie

 

ATLATL is knocked out of NFC South title contention with:
         1) ATLATL loss + TBTB tie
OR 2) TBTB win

 

ATLATL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) ATLATL loss + TBTB win/tie
OR 2) ATLATL tie + TBTB win + LARLAR tie + SEASEA win/tie
OR 3) ATLATL tie + TBTB win + LARLAR win + SEASEA tie
OR 4) TBTB win + LARLAR win + SEASEA win

 

DALDAL is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) DALDAL loss/tie + PHIPHI win
OR 2) DALDAL loss + PHIPHI tie

 

DALDAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DALDAL loss
OR 2) DALDAL tie + PHIPHI win
OR 3) DALDAL tie + SFSF tie
OR 4) SFSF win

 

PHIPHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PHIPHI loss + SFSF win

 

DETDET is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DETDET loss + SFSF win
OR 2) DETDET loss + PHIPHI win

 

AFCAFC

PITPIT is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) PITPIT loss + BUFBUF win/tie + INDIND win + HOUHOU win + DENDEN loss/tie
OR 2) PITPIT loss + BUFBUF win/tie + INDIND win + HOUHOU win + JAXJAX loss + KCKC win/tie
OR 3) PITPIT loss + BUFBUF win/tie + INDIND win/tie + JAXJAX win + DENDEN loss/tie

 

CINCIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CINCIN loss + PITPIT win + BUFBUF win/tie

 

HOUHOU is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) HOUHOU loss + INDIND win
OR 2) HOUHOU loss + JAXJAX win

 

HOUHOU is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) HOUHOU loss + INDIND win + JAXJAX win + BUFBUF win/tie
OR 2) HOUHOU loss + INDIND win + JAXJAX win + CINCIN win + PITPIT loss/tie + DENDEN loss/tie

 

BUFBUF is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) BUFBUF loss/tie
OR 2) MIAMIA win/tie

 

JAXJAX is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) JAXJAX loss + INDIND win + HOUHOU win/tie
OR 2) JAXJAX loss + INDIND tie + HOUHOU win

 

INDIND is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) INDIND loss + JAXJAX win

 

LVLV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) LVLV loss/tie
OR 2) KCKC win/tie

 

LVLV is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) LVLV loss
OR 2) LVLV tie + JAXJAX win
OR 3) LVLV tie + PITPIT win
OR 4) LVLV tie + CINCIN win
OR 5) LVLV tie + JAXJAX loss + HOUHOU win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR 6) LVLV tie + JAXJAX loss + HOUHOU win + CINCIN tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR 7) LVLV tie + JAXJAX loss + HOUHOU win + CINCIN tie + 0.5 combined wins from (LAR, BAL, CLE) + DAL win + ATL win + NE win
OR 8) LVLV tie + JAXJAX loss + HOUHOU win + PITPIT tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR 9) LVLV tie + JAXJAX loss + HOUHOU win + PITPIT tie + CINCIN tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)

The portions of scenarios in italics are for IND clinching Strength of Victory or a tie in Strength of Victory and clinching Strength of Schedule over LV.

 

DENDEN is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) DENDEN loss/tie
OR 2) KCKC win/tie

 

DENDEN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DENDEN loss
OR 2) DENDEN tie + JAXJAX win/tie
OR 3) DENDEN tie + INDIND win/tie + HOUHOU win/tie
OR 4) DENDEN tie + PITPIT win/tie
OR 5) DENDEN tie + CINCIN win
OR 6) KCKC win/tie + BUFBUF win/tie + PITPIT win
OR 7) KCKC win/tie + BUFBUF win/tie + HOUHOU win + INDIND win + JAXJAX loss/tie
OR 8) KCKC win/tie + HOUHOU win + INDIND win + JAXJAX loss/tie + PITPIT win

 

CLECLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:
         1) CLECLE loss/tie
OR 2) BALBAL win/tie

 

CLECLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CLECLE loss/tie
OR 2) BALBAL win/tie

 

MIAMIA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) MIAMIA loss

 



Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17

We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFCNFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
SFSF 45% 31% 23%          
PHIPHI 25% 32% 25%   19%      
DETDET 27% 28% 45%          
TBTB       79%   <1% 2% 19%
DALDAL 3% 9% 7%   81%      
LARLAR           51% 25% 24%
SEASEA           34% 36% 30%
MINMIN           7% 16% 77%
ATLATL       11%   1% 5% 83%
GBGB           7% 13% 80%
NONO       10%   <1% 3% 87%
CHICHI           <1% <1% >99%
NYGNYG               100%
WASWAS               100%
ARIARI               100%
CARCAR               100%

 

AFCAFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
BALBAL 74% 25%     1%      
MIAMIA 26% 70% 1%   1% 2%    
KCKC   1% 83% 14%   <1% <1% 2%
JAXJAX     6% 36%   2% 10% 47%
CLECLE <1% 1%     92% 7% <1% <1%
BUFBUF   4%     5% 58% 18% 15%
INDIND     5% 27% <1% 3% 11% 54%
HOUHOU     5% 21% <1% 3% 12% 58%
PITPIT         1% 13% 23% 64%
CINCIN           11% 22% 67%
LVLV     <1% 1%   <1% 3% 95%
DENDEN     <1% 1%   <1% 1% 98%
NYJNYJ               100%
TENTEN               100%
LACLAC               100%
NENE               100%

 


Seed Control Entering Week 17

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
SFSF MIAMIA BALBAL

Teams that control the 2 seed:
DETDET

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHIPHI(5) KCKC

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TBTB JAXJAX

Teams that control the 5 seed:
DALDAL CLECLE

Teams that control the 6 seed:
LARLAR(7) BUFBUF(E)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
SEASEA(E) HOUHOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
NYGNYG WASWAS MINMIN(6) GBGB CHICHI ATLATL NONO(4) CARCAR ARIARI
NYJNYJ NENE PITPIT CINCIN INDIND(7) TENTEN DENDEN LVLV LACLAC

 


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