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Standings Entering Week 17
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
Record |
Conf. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
SFxy |
11-4 |
9-1 |
SF wins the tiebreak over PHI/DET on Conference Record (9-1 vs 7-3/7-3). |
2 |
PHIx |
11-4 |
7-3 |
PHI wins the tiebreak over DET on Strength of Victory (79-86 vs 72-93). |
3 |
DETxy |
11-4 |
7-3 |
|
4 |
TB |
8-7 |
6-4 |
|
5 |
DALx |
10-5 |
7-3 |
|
6 |
LARk |
8-7 |
6-4 |
LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
7 |
SEAk |
8-7 |
6-5 |
|
8 |
MINk |
7-8 |
6-4 |
MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). MIN wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head. |
9 |
ATL |
7-8 |
4-6 |
ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head. |
10 |
GBk |
7-8 |
5-5 |
GB wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head. |
11 |
NO |
7-8 |
4-6 |
|
12 |
CHIk |
6-9 |
5-5 |
|
13 |
NYGke |
5-10 |
4-6 |
|
14 |
WASke |
4-11 |
2-8 |
|
15 |
ARIke |
3-12 |
2-8 |
|
16 |
CARke |
2-13 |
1-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
Record |
Conf. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
BALx |
12-3 |
7-3 |
|
2 |
MIAx |
11-4 |
7-3 |
|
3 |
KC |
9-6 |
7-3 |
|
4 |
JAX |
8-7 |
6-5 |
JAX wins the tiebreak over HOU/IND on Head-to-Head (3-1 vs 1-2/1-2). |
5 |
CLE |
10-5 |
7-3 |
|
6 |
BUF |
9-6 |
5-5 |
|
7 |
IND |
8-7 |
6-4 |
IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). IND wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head. |
8 |
HOU |
8-7 |
5-5 |
PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). HOU wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head. |
9 |
PITk |
8-7 |
6-5 |
PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
10 |
CINk |
8-7 |
3-7 |
|
11 |
LV |
7-8 |
5-5 |
LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
12 |
DEN |
7-8 |
4-6 |
|
13 |
NYJke |
6-9 |
3-7 |
|
14 |
TENke |
5-10 |
3-7 |
TEN wins the tiebreak over LAC on Head-to-Head. |
15 |
LACke |
5-10 |
3-7 |
|
16 |
NEke |
4-11 |
4-6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
East |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
PHIx |
11-4 |
4-1 |
|
2 |
DALx |
10-5 |
4-1 |
|
3 |
NYGke |
5-10 |
2-3 |
|
4 |
WASke |
4-11 |
0-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
North |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
DETxy |
11-4 |
3-2 |
|
2 |
MINk |
7-8 |
2-2 |
MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
3 |
GBk |
7-8 |
2-2 |
|
4 |
CHIk |
6-9 |
2-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
South |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
TB |
8-7 |
3-1 |
|
2 |
ATL |
7-8 |
3-2 |
ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
3 |
NO |
7-8 |
2-2 |
|
4 |
CARke |
2-13 |
1-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
West |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
SFxy |
11-4 |
5-0 |
|
2 |
LARk |
8-7 |
4-1 |
LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
3 |
SEAk |
8-7 |
1-4 |
|
4 |
ARIke |
3-12 |
0-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
East |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
MIAx |
11-4 |
4-1 |
|
2 |
BUF |
9-6 |
2-2 |
|
3 |
NYJke |
6-9 |
1-4 |
|
4 |
NEke |
4-11 |
2-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
North |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
BALx |
12-3 |
3-2 |
|
2 |
CLE |
10-5 |
3-2 |
|
3 |
PITk |
8-7 |
4-1 |
PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
4 |
CINk |
8-7 |
0-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
South |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
JAX |
8-7 |
4-1 |
JAX wins the tiebreak over HOU/IND on Head-to-Head (3-1 vs 1-2/1-2). |
2 |
IND |
8-7 |
3-2 |
IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
3 |
HOU |
8-7 |
2-2 |
|
4 |
TENke |
5-10 |
0-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
West |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
KC |
9-6 |
3-2 |
|
2 |
LV |
7-8 |
3-2 |
LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
3 |
DEN |
7-8 |
2-2 |
|
4 |
LACke |
5-10 |
1-3 |
|
x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17
NFC
SF clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with: |
|
1) |
SF win +
PHI loss +
DET loss |
PHI clinches the NFC East division title with: |
|
1) |
PHI win +
DAL loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
PHI tie +
DAL loss |
TB clinches the NFC South division title with: |
|
1) |
TB win |
OR |
2) |
TB tie +
ATL loss |
LAR clinches a playoff berth with: |
|
1) |
LAR win +
SEA loss |
OR |
2) |
LAR win +
MIN/
GB tie |
SEA clinches a playoff berth with: |
AFC
BAL clinches the AFC North division title with: |
|
1) |
BAL win/tie |
OR |
2) |
CLE loss/tie |
BAL clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with: |
|
1) |
BAL win |
MIA clinches the AFC East division title with: |
|
1) |
MIA win/tie |
OR |
2) |
BUF loss/tie |
KC clinches the AFC West division title with: |
|
1) |
KC win/tie |
OR |
2) |
DEN loss/tie +
LV loss/tie |
JAX clinches the AFC South division title with: |
|
1) |
JAX win +
IND loss +
HOU loss |
CLE clinches a playoff berth with: |
|
1) |
CLE win/tie |
OR |
2) |
PIT loss/tie |
OR |
3) |
BUF loss |
OR |
4) |
JAX loss/tie |
OR |
5) |
HOU loss/tie +
IND loss/tie |
BUF clinches a playoff berth with: |
|
1) |
BUF win +
PIT loss/tie +
CIN loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
BUF win +
PIT loss/tie +
JAX loss/tie |
OR |
3) |
BUF win +
PIT loss/tie +
IND loss/tie +
HOU loss/tie |
OR |
4) |
BUF win +
CIN loss/tie +
JAX loss/tie |
OR |
5) |
BUF win +
CIN loss/tie +
IND loss/tie +
HOU loss/tie |
OR |
6) |
BUF tie +
PIT loss +
CIN loss +
JAX loss |
OR |
7) |
BUF tie +
PIT loss +
CIN loss +
HOU loss/tie |
OR |
8) |
BUF tie +
PIT loss +
CIN loss +
IND loss/tie |
OR |
9) |
BUF tie +
PIT loss +
JAX loss +
HOU loss/tie |
OR |
10) |
BUF tie +
PIT loss +
JAX loss +
IND loss/tie |
OR |
11) |
BUF tie +
PIT loss +
HOU loss +
IND loss |
OR |
12) |
BUF tie +
CIN loss +
JAX loss +
HOU loss/tie |
OR |
13) |
BUF tie +
CIN loss +
JAX loss +
IND loss/tie |
OR |
14) |
BUF tie +
CIN loss +
HOU loss +
IND loss |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17
NFC
MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
MIN loss +
SEA win/tie +
LAR win/tie |
OR |
2) |
MIN loss +
SEA win/tie +
TB tie +
ATL win |
OR |
3) |
MIN loss +
LAR win/tie +
TB tie +
ATL win |
OR |
4) |
MIN tie +
SEA win +
LAR win |
GB is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
GB loss +
SEA win/tie |
OR |
2) |
GB loss +
LAR win/tie |
OR |
3) |
GB loss +
TB tie +
ATL win |
OR |
4) |
GB loss +
NO win +
ATL win + ARI win + 6.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, WAS, CIN, CLE, IND, JAX, DEN) |
OR |
5) |
GB tie +
SEA win +
LAR win |
The portion of the scenarios in italics are for LAR clinching Strength of Victory over GB
CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
CHI loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
SEA win/tie +
LAR win/tie |
OR |
3) |
SEA win/tie +
GB win |
OR |
4) |
SEA win/tie +
MIN win |
OR |
5) |
LAR win/tie +
GB win |
OR |
6) |
LAR win/tie +
MIN win |
NO is knocked out of NFC South title contention with: |
|
1) |
NO loss/tie |
NO is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
NO loss |
OR |
2) |
NO tie +
SEA win/tie +
LAR win/tie |
ATL is knocked out of NFC South title contention with: |
|
1) |
ATL loss +
TB tie |
OR |
2) |
TB win |
ATL is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
ATL loss +
TB win/tie |
OR |
2) |
ATL tie +
TB win +
LAR tie +
SEA win/tie |
OR |
3) |
ATL tie +
TB win +
LAR win +
SEA tie |
OR |
4) |
TB win +
LAR win +
SEA win |
DAL is knocked out of NFC East title contention with: |
|
1) |
DAL loss/tie +
PHI win |
OR |
2) |
DAL loss +
PHI tie |
DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
DAL loss |
OR |
2) |
DAL tie +
PHI win |
OR |
3) |
DAL tie +
SF tie |
OR |
4) |
SF win |
PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
PHI loss +
SF win |
DET is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
DET loss +
SF win |
OR |
2) |
DET loss +
PHI win |
AFC
PIT is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
PIT loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win +
HOU win +
DEN loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
PIT loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win +
HOU win +
JAX loss +
KC win/tie |
OR |
3) |
PIT loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win/tie +
JAX win +
DEN loss/tie |
CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
CIN loss +
PIT win +
BUF win/tie |
HOU is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
|
1) |
HOU loss +
IND win |
OR |
2) |
HOU loss +
JAX win |
HOU is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
HOU loss +
IND win +
JAX win +
BUF win/tie |
OR |
2) |
HOU loss +
IND win +
JAX win +
CIN win +
PIT loss/tie +
DEN loss/tie |
BUF is knocked out of AFC East title contention with: |
|
1) |
BUF loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
MIA win/tie |
JAX is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
|
1) |
JAX loss +
IND win +
HOU win/tie |
OR |
2) |
JAX loss +
IND tie +
HOU win |
IND is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
|
1) |
IND loss +
JAX win |
LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with: |
|
1) |
LV loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
KC win/tie |
LV is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
LV loss |
OR |
2) |
LV tie +
JAX win |
OR |
3) |
LV tie +
PIT win |
OR |
4) |
LV tie +
CIN win |
OR |
5) |
LV tie +
JAX loss +
HOU win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC) |
OR |
6) |
LV tie +
JAX loss +
HOU win +
CIN tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC) |
OR |
7) |
LV tie +
JAX loss +
HOU win +
CIN tie + 0.5 combined wins from (LAR, BAL, CLE) + DAL win + ATL win + NE win |
OR |
8) |
LV tie +
JAX loss +
HOU win +
PIT tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC) |
OR |
9) |
LV tie +
JAX loss +
HOU win +
PIT tie +
CIN tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC) |
The portions of scenarios in italics are for IND clinching Strength of Victory or a tie in Strength of Victory and clinching Strength of Schedule over LV.
DEN is knocked out of AFC West title contention with: |
|
1) |
DEN loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
KC win/tie |
DEN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
DEN loss |
OR |
2) |
DEN tie +
JAX win/tie |
OR |
3) |
DEN tie +
IND win/tie +
HOU win/tie |
OR |
4) |
DEN tie +
PIT win/tie |
OR |
5) |
DEN tie +
CIN win |
OR |
6) |
KC win/tie +
BUF win/tie +
PIT win |
OR |
7) |
KC win/tie +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX loss/tie |
OR |
8) |
KC win/tie +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX loss/tie +
PIT win |
CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with: |
|
1) |
CLE loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
BAL win/tie |
CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
CLE loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
BAL win/tie |
MIA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
MIA loss |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17
We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
|
1 seed |
2 seed |
3 seed |
4 seed |
5 seed |
6 seed |
7 seed |
Miss Playoffs |
SF |
45% |
31% |
23% |
|
|
|
|
|
PHI |
25% |
32% |
25% |
|
19% |
|
|
|
DET |
27% |
28% |
45% |
|
|
|
|
|
TB |
|
|
|
79% |
|
<1% |
2% |
19% |
DAL |
3% |
9% |
7% |
|
81% |
|
|
|
LAR |
|
|
|
|
|
51% |
25% |
24% |
SEA |
|
|
|
|
|
34% |
36% |
30% |
MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
7% |
16% |
77% |
ATL |
|
|
|
11% |
|
1% |
5% |
83% |
GB |
|
|
|
|
|
7% |
13% |
80% |
NO |
|
|
|
10% |
|
<1% |
3% |
87% |
CHI |
|
|
|
|
|
<1% |
<1% |
>99% |
NYG |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
WAS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
ARI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
CAR |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
|
1 seed |
2 seed |
3 seed |
4 seed |
5 seed |
6 seed |
7 seed |
Miss Playoffs |
BAL |
74% |
25% |
|
|
1% |
|
|
|
MIA |
26% |
70% |
1% |
|
1% |
2% |
|
|
KC |
|
1% |
83% |
14% |
|
<1% |
<1% |
2% |
JAX |
|
|
6% |
36% |
|
2% |
10% |
47% |
CLE |
<1% |
1% |
|
|
92% |
7% |
<1% |
<1% |
BUF |
|
4% |
|
|
5% |
58% |
18% |
15% |
IND |
|
|
5% |
27% |
<1% |
3% |
11% |
54% |
HOU |
|
|
5% |
21% |
<1% |
3% |
12% |
58% |
PIT |
|
|
|
|
1% |
13% |
23% |
64% |
CIN |
|
|
|
|
|
11% |
22% |
67% |
LV |
|
|
<1% |
1% |
|
<1% |
3% |
95% |
DEN |
|
|
<1% |
1% |
|
<1% |
1% |
98% |
NYJ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
TEN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
LAC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
NE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
Seed Control Entering Week 17
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
SF
MIA
BAL
Teams that control the 2 seed:
DET
Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI(5)
KC
Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB
JAX
Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL
CLE
Teams that control the 6 seed:
LAR(7)
BUF(E)
Teams that control the 7 seed:
SEA(E)
HOU
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
NYG
WAS
MIN(6)
GB
CHI
ATL
NO(4)
CAR
ARI
NYJ
NE
PIT
CIN
IND(7)
TEN
DEN
LV
LAC
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