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Standings Entering Week 17

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SFxy 11-4 9-1 SF wins the tiebreak over PHI/DET on Conference Record (9-1 vs 7-3/7-3).
2 PHIx 11-4 7-3 PHI wins the tiebreak over DET on Strength of Victory (79-86 vs 72-93).
3 DETxy 11-4 7-3  
4 TB 8-7 6-4  
5 DALx 10-5 7-3  
6 LARk 8-7 6-4 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0).
7 SEAk 8-7 6-5  
8 MINk 7-8 6-4 MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). MIN wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head.
9 ATL 7-8 4-6 ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head.
10 GBk 7-8 5-5 GB wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head.
11 NO 7-8 4-6  
12 CHIk 6-9 5-5  
13 NYGke 5-10 4-6  
14 WASke 4-11 2-8  
15 ARIke 3-12 2-8  
16 CARke 2-13 1-10  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BALx 12-3 7-3  
2 MIAx 11-4 7-3  
3 KC 9-6 7-3  
4 JAX 8-7 6-5 JAX wins the tiebreak over HOU/IND on Head-to-Head (3-1 vs 1-2/1-2).
5 CLE 10-5 7-3  
6 BUF 9-6 5-5  
7 IND 8-7 6-4 IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0). PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). IND wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
8 HOU 8-7 5-5 PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0). HOU wins the tiebreak over PIT on Head-to-Head.
9 PITk 8-7 6-5 PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0).
10 CINk 8-7 3-7  
11 LV 7-8 5-5 LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
12 DEN 7-8 4-6  
13 NYJke 6-9 3-7  
14 TENke 5-10 3-7 TEN wins the tiebreak over LAC on Head-to-Head.
15 LACke 5-10 3-7  
16 NEke 4-11 4-6  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIx 11-4 4-1  
2 DALx 10-5 4-1  
3 NYGke 5-10 2-3  
4 WASke 4-11 0-5  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DETxy 11-4 3-2  
2 MINk 7-8 2-2 MIN wins the tiebreak over GB on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 GBk 7-8 2-2  
4 CHIk 6-9 2-3  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 8-7 3-1  
2 ATL 7-8 3-2 ATL wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 NO 7-8 2-2  
4 CARke 2-13 1-4  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SFxy 11-4 5-0  
2 LARk 8-7 4-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (2-0).
3 SEAk 8-7 1-4  
4 ARIke 3-12 0-5  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 MIAx 11-4 4-1  
2 BUF 9-6 2-2  
3 NYJke 6-9 1-4  
4 NEke 4-11 2-2  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BALx 12-3 3-2  
2 CLE 10-5 3-2  
3 PITk 8-7 4-1 PIT wins the tiebreak over CIN on Head-to-Head (2-0).
4 CINk 8-7 0-5  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAX 8-7 4-1 JAX wins the tiebreak over HOU/IND on Head-to-Head (3-1 vs 1-2/1-2).
2 IND 8-7 3-2 IND wins the tiebreak over HOU on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 HOU 8-7 2-2  
4 TENke 5-10 0-4  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KC 9-6 3-2  
2 LV 7-8 3-2 LV wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 DEN 7-8 2-2  
4 LACke 5-10 1-3  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 

Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFC

SF clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) SF win + PHI loss + DET loss

 

PHI clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) PHI win + DAL loss/tie
OR 2) PHI tie + DAL loss

 

TB clinches the NFC South division title with:
         1) TB win
OR 2) TB tie + ATL loss

 

LAR clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LAR win + SEA loss
OR 2) LAR win + MIN/ GB tie

 

SEA clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) SEA win + MIN/ GB tie

 

 

 

AFC

BAL clinches the AFC North division title with:
         1) BAL win/tie
OR 2) CLE loss/tie

 

BAL clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) BAL win

 

MIA clinches the AFC East division title with:
         1) MIA win/tie
OR 2) BUF loss/tie

 

KC clinches the AFC West division title with:
         1) KC win/tie
OR 2) DEN loss/tie + LV loss/tie

 

JAX clinches the AFC South division title with:
         1) JAX win + IND loss + HOU loss

 

CLE clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) CLE win/tie
OR 2) PIT loss/tie
OR 3) BUF loss
OR 4) JAX loss/tie
OR 5) HOU loss/tie + IND loss/tie

 

BUF clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) BUF win + PIT loss/tie + CIN loss/tie
OR 2) BUF win + PIT loss/tie + JAX loss/tie
OR 3) BUF win + PIT loss/tie + IND loss/tie + HOU loss/tie
OR 4) BUF win + CIN loss/tie + JAX loss/tie
OR 5) BUF win + CIN loss/tie + IND loss/tie + HOU loss/tie
OR 6) BUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + JAX loss
OR 7) BUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + HOU loss/tie
OR 8) BUF tie + PIT loss + CIN loss + IND loss/tie
OR 9) BUF tie + PIT loss + JAX loss + HOU loss/tie
OR 10) BUF tie + PIT loss + JAX loss + IND loss/tie
OR 11) BUF tie + PIT loss + HOU loss + IND loss
OR 12) BUF tie + CIN loss + JAX loss + HOU loss/tie
OR 13) BUF tie + CIN loss + JAX loss + IND loss/tie
OR 14) BUF tie + CIN loss + HOU loss + IND loss

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFC

MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIN loss + SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie
OR 2) MIN loss + SEA win/tie + TB tie + ATL win
OR 3) MIN loss + LAR win/tie + TB tie + ATL win
OR 4) MIN tie + SEA win + LAR win

 

GB is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) GB loss + SEA win/tie
OR 2) GB loss + LAR win/tie
OR 3) GB loss + TB tie + ATL win
OR 4) GB loss + NO win + ATL win + ARI win + 6.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, WAS, CIN, CLE, IND, JAX, DEN)
OR 5) GB tie + SEA win + LAR win

The portion of the scenarios in italics are for LAR clinching Strength of Victory over GB

 

CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CHI loss/tie
OR 2) SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie
OR 3) SEA win/tie + GB win
OR 4) SEA win/tie + MIN win
OR 5) LAR win/tie + GB win
OR 6) LAR win/tie + MIN win

 

NO is knocked out of NFC South title contention with:
         1) NO loss/tie

 

NO is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NO loss
OR 2) NO tie + SEA win/tie + LAR win/tie

 

ATL is knocked out of NFC South title contention with:
         1) ATL loss + TB tie
OR 2) TB win

 

ATL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) ATL loss + TB win/tie
OR 2) ATL tie + TB win + LAR tie + SEA win/tie
OR 3) ATL tie + TB win + LAR win + SEA tie
OR 4) TB win + LAR win + SEA win

 

DAL is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) DAL loss/tie + PHI win
OR 2) DAL loss + PHI tie

 

DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DAL loss
OR 2) DAL tie + PHI win
OR 3) DAL tie + SF tie
OR 4) SF win

 

PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PHI loss + SF win

 

DET is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DET loss + SF win
OR 2) DET loss + PHI win

 

AFC

PIT is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + HOU win + DEN loss/tie
OR 2) PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + HOU win + JAX loss + KC win/tie
OR 3) PIT loss + BUF win/tie + IND win/tie + JAX win + DEN loss/tie

 

CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CIN loss + PIT win + BUF win/tie

 

HOU is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) HOU loss + IND win
OR 2) HOU loss + JAX win

 

HOU is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) HOU loss + IND win + JAX win + BUF win/tie
OR 2) HOU loss + IND win + JAX win + CIN win + PIT loss/tie + DEN loss/tie

 

BUF is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) BUF loss/tie
OR 2) MIA win/tie

 

JAX is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) JAX loss + IND win + HOU win/tie
OR 2) JAX loss + IND tie + HOU win

 

IND is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) IND loss + JAX win

 

LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) LV loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie

 

LV is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) LV loss
OR 2) LV tie + JAX win
OR 3) LV tie + PIT win
OR 4) LV tie + CIN win
OR 5) LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR 6) LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + CIN tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR 7) LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + CIN tie + 0.5 combined wins from (LAR, BAL, CLE) + DAL win + ATL win + NE win
OR 8) LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + PIT tie + 1 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)
OR 9) LV tie + JAX loss + HOU win + PIT tie + CIN tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, TB, LAR, BAL, CLE, LAC)

The portions of scenarios in italics are for IND clinching Strength of Victory or a tie in Strength of Victory and clinching Strength of Schedule over LV.

 

DEN is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) DEN loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie

 

DEN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DEN loss
OR 2) DEN tie + JAX win/tie
OR 3) DEN tie + IND win/tie + HOU win/tie
OR 4) DEN tie + PIT win/tie
OR 5) DEN tie + CIN win
OR 6) KC win/tie + BUF win/tie + PIT win
OR 7) KC win/tie + BUF win/tie + HOU win + IND win + JAX loss/tie
OR 8) KC win/tie + HOU win + IND win + JAX loss/tie + PIT win

 

CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:
         1) CLE loss/tie
OR 2) BAL win/tie

 

CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CLE loss/tie
OR 2) BAL win/tie

 

MIA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) MIA loss

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17

We’re trying something new this year. Now that we have some teams knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
SF 45% 31% 23%          
PHI 25% 32% 25%   19%      
DET 27% 28% 45%          
TB       79%   <1% 2% 19%
DAL 3% 9% 7%   81%      
LAR           51% 25% 24%
SEA           34% 36% 30%
MIN           7% 16% 77%
ATL       11%   1% 5% 83%
GB           7% 13% 80%
NO       10%   <1% 3% 87%
CHI           <1% <1% >99%
NYG               100%
WAS               100%
ARI               100%
CAR               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
BAL 74% 25%     1%      
MIA 26% 70% 1%   1% 2%    
KC   1% 83% 14%   <1% <1% 2%
JAX     6% 36%   2% 10% 47%
CLE <1% 1%     92% 7% <1% <1%
BUF   4%     5% 58% 18% 15%
IND     5% 27% <1% 3% 11% 54%
HOU     5% 21% <1% 3% 12% 58%
PIT         1% 13% 23% 64%
CIN           11% 22% 67%
LV     <1% 1%   <1% 3% 95%
DEN     <1% 1%   <1% 1% 98%
NYJ               100%
TEN               100%
LAC               100%
NE               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 17

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
SF MIA BAL

Teams that control the 2 seed:
DET

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI(5) KC

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB JAX

Teams that control the 5 seed:
DAL CLE

Teams that control the 6 seed:
LAR(7) BUF(E)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
SEA(E) HOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
NYG WAS MIN(6) GB CHI ATL NO(4) CAR ARI
NYJ NE PIT CIN IND(7) TEN DEN LV LAC

 

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