- Standings Entering Week 11
- Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 11
- Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 11
- Seed Control Entering Week 11
- Contact Us
Standings Entering Week 11
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 DET |
8-1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 |
 PHI |
7-2 | 4-2 | |
| 3 |
 ATL |
6-4 | 6-2 | ATL wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (6-2 vs 3-3). |
| 4 |
 ARI |
6-4 | 3-3 | |
| 5 |
 MIN |
7-2 | 3-2 | |
| 6 |
 WAS |
7-3 | 5-1 | |
| 7 |
 GB |
6-3 | 2-3 | |
| 8 |
 SF |
5-4 | 3-3 | |
| 9 |
 CHI |
4-5 | 2-2 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). CHI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head. |
| 10 |
 LAR |
4-5 | 3-4 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 11 |
 SEA |
4-5 | 1-4 | |
| 12 |
 TB |
4-6 | 4-3 | |
| 13 |
 DAL |
3-6 | 1-5 | |
| 14 |
 NO |
3-7 | 3-4 | NO wins the tiebreak over CAR on Division Record (2-3 vs 1-2). |
| 15 |
 CAR |
3-7 | 2-4 | |
| 16 |
 NYG |
2-8 | 1-6 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 KC |
9-0 | 5-0 | |
| 2 |
 BUF |
8-2 | 6-2 | |
| 3 |
 PIT |
7-2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 |
 HOU |
6-4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 |
 BAL |
7-3 | 4-3 | |
| 6 |
 LAC |
6-3 | 4-2 | |
| 7 |
 DEN |
5-5 | 2-4 | |
| 8 |
 IND |
4-6 | 3-4 | IND wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (3-4 vs 2-4). |
| 9 |
 CIN |
4-6 | 2-4 | |
| 10 |
 MIA |
3-6 | 2-4 | |
| 11 |
 NYJ |
3-7 | 3-4 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3). |
| 12 |
 NE |
3-7 | 2-5 | |
| 13 |
 CLE |
2-7 | 2-3 | CLE wins the tiebreak over TEN/LV on Conference Record (2-3 vs 2-4/2-5). |
| 14 |
 TEN |
2-7 | 2-4 | TEN wins the tiebreak over LV on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-5). |
| 15 |
 LV |
2-7 | 2-5 | |
| 16 |
 JAX |
2-8 | 2-4 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PHI |
7-2 | 2-0 | |
| 2 |
WAS |
7-3 | 2-0 | |
| 3 |
DAL |
3-6 | 1-1 | |
| 4 |
NYG |
2-8 | 0-4 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DET |
8-1 | 2-0 | |
| 2 |
MIN |
7-2 | 1-1 | |
| 3 |
GB |
6-3 | 0-2 | |
| 4 |
CHI |
4-5 | 0-0 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
ATL |
6-4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 |
TB |
4-6 | 1-2 | |
| 3 |
NO |
3-7 | 2-3 | NO wins the tiebreak over CAR on Division Record (2-3 vs 1-2). |
| 4 |
CAR |
3-7 | 1-2 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
ARI |
6-4 | 2-0 | |
| 2 |
SF |
5-4 | 1-2 | |
| 3 |
LAR |
4-5 | 2-1 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 4 |
SEA |
4-5 | 0-2 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
BUF |
8-2 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
MIA |
3-6 | 1-2 | |
| 3 |
NYJ |
3-7 | 1-2 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3). |
| 4 |
NE |
3-7 | 1-2 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PIT |
7-2 | 0-0 | |
| 2 |
BAL |
7-3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
CIN |
4-6 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
CLE |
2-7 | 1-1 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
HOU |
6-4 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
IND |
4-6 | 1-3 | |
| 3 |
TEN |
2-7 | 0-1 | |
| 4 |
JAX |
2-8 | 1-1 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
KC |
9-0 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
LAC |
6-3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
DEN |
5-5 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
LV |
2-7 | 0-3 |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 11
NFC
|
NYG is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
DET win +
MIN win |
AFC
|
LV is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
LV loss +
KC win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LV loss +
NE loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
LV tie +
KC win |
|
LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with: |
| 1) |
LV loss +
KC win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LV tie +
KC win |
|
NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
NE loss +
KC win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
NE tie +
KC win |
|
NYJ is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
NYJ loss +
KC win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
NYJ tie +
KC win |
|
CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
CLE loss +
KC win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
CLE tie +
KC win |
|
JAX is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
JAX loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
KC win/tie |
|
TEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
TEN loss +
KC win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
TEN tie +
KC win |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 11
Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes than result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DET |
53% | 14% | 2% | <1% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
|
PHI |
15% | 34% | 8% | 2% | 9% | 15% | 10% | 7% |
|
ATL |
2% | 9% | 29% | 51% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 9% |
|
ARI |
1% | 5% | 27% | 20% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 38% |
|
MIN |
15% | 7% | 1% | <1% | 38% | 19% | 11% | 8% |
|
WAS |
10% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 13% | 21% | 15% | 10% |
|
GB |
3% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 16% | 23% | 25% | 29% |
|
SF |
1% | 3% | 14% | 9% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 59% |
|
CHI |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 85% |
|
LAR |
<1% | 1% | 4% | 5% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 85% |
|
SEA |
<1% | <1% | 6% | 4% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 85% |
|
TB |
<1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 90% |
|
DAL |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 98% |
|
NO |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 98% |
|
CAR |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 98% |
|
NYG |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
KC |
70% | 18% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
|
BUF |
16% | 34% | 39% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
|
PIT |
10% | 24% | 21% | 4% | 23% | 13% | 3% | 2% |
|
HOU |
1% | 5% | 14% | 71% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 7% |
|
BAL |
2% | 18% | 17% | 4% | 25% | 25% | 6% | 3% |
|
LAC |
2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | 41% | 32% | 13% | 9% |
|
DEN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 14% | 30% | 50% |
|
IND |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 7% | 1% | 4% | 12% | 77% |
|
CIN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 81% |
|
MIA |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 8% | 90% |
|
NYJ |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 96% |
|
NE |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 96% |
|
CLE |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 97% |
|
TEN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 96% |
|
LV |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 98% |
|
JAX |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
Seed Control Entering Week 11
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET
KC
Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI
WAS
BUF
PIT
Teams that control the 3 seed:
ATL
BAL
Teams that control the 4 seed:
ARI
SF
SEA
HOU
Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN
GB(6)
LAC
Teams that control the 6 seed:
None!
Teams that control the 7 seed:
CHI(6)
DEN(6)
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
NYG
TB
NO
CAR
LAR(4)
MIA
NYJ
NE
CIN(7)
CLE
IND(7)
TEN
JAX
LV
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