Standings Entering Week 12

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DET 9-1 6-1  
2 PHI 8-2 5-2  
3 ARI 6-4 3-3  
4 ATL 6-5 6-2  
5 MIN 8-2 3-2  
6 GB 7-3 3-3  
7 WAS 7-4 5-2  
8 LAR 5-5 3-4 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA/SF on Head-to-Head (2-0 vs 1-2/1-2).
9 SEA 5-5 2-4 SEA wins the tiebreak over SF on Division Record (1-2 vs 1-3).
10 SF 5-5 3-4  
11 TB 4-6 4-3 TB wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (4-3 vs 2-3).
12 CHI 4-6 2-3  
13 NO 4-7 3-4  
14 CAR 3-7 2-4 CAR wins the tiebreak over DAL on Conference Record (2-4 vs 1-5).
15 DAL 3-7 1-5  
16 NYG 2-8 1-6  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KC 9-1 5-1  
2 BUF 9-2 7-2  
3 PIT 8-2 5-1  
4 HOU 7-4 5-1  
5 LAC 7-3 5-2  
6 BAL 7-4 4-4  
7 DEN 6-5 2-4  
8 IND 5-6 4-4  
9 MIA 4-6 3-4  
10 CIN 4-7 2-5  
11 NYJ 3-8 3-5 NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3).
12 NE 3-8 2-5  
13 CLE 2-8 2-3 CLE wins the tiebreak over TEN/LV on Conference Record (2-3 vs 2-4/2-6).
14 TEN 2-8 2-4 TEN wins the tiebreak over LV on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-6).
15 LV 2-8 2-6  
16 JAX 2-9 2-4  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 8-2 3-0  
2 WAS 7-4 2-1  
3 DAL 3-7 1-1  
4 NYG 2-8 0-4  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DET 9-1 2-0  
2 MIN 8-2 1-1  
3 GB 7-3 1-2  
4 CHI 4-6 0-1  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 ATL 6-5 4-1  
2 TB 4-6 1-2  
3 NO 4-7 2-3  
4 CAR 3-7 1-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 ARI 6-4 2-0  
2 LAR 5-5 2-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA/SF on Head-to-Head (2-0 vs 1-2/1-2).
3 SEA 5-5 1-2 SEA wins the tiebreak over SF on Division Record (1-2 vs 1-3).
4 SF 5-5 1-3  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUF 9-2 3-0  
2 MIA 4-6 1-2  
3 NYJ 3-8 1-2 NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-1 vs 0-3).
4 NE 3-8 1-2  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 8-2 1-0  
2 BAL 7-4 2-2  
3 CIN 4-7 1-2  
4 CLE 2-8 1-1  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 HOU 7-4 3-0  
2 IND 5-6 1-3  
3 TEN 2-8 0-1  
4 JAX 2-9 1-1  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KC 9-1 3-0  
2 LAC 7-3 2-1  
3 DEN 6-5 1-2  
4 LV 2-8 0-3  

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 12

NFC

NYG is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) NYG loss
OR 2) NYG tie + WAS win/tie
OR 3) NYG tie + PHI tie
OR 4) PHI win
OR 5) PHI tie + WAS win

 

DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DAL loss
OR 2) DAL tie + DET win
OR 3) DAL tie + DET tie + MIN win
OR 4) DAL tie + MIN win + GB win/tie
OR 5) DAL tie + MIN tie + GB win

 

CAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CAR loss + DET win/tie
OR 2) CAR loss + MIN win/tie
OR 3) CAR loss + GB win/tie
OR 4) CAR tie + DET win
OR 5) CAR tie + DET tie + MIN win
OR 6) CAR tie + DET tie + MIN tie + GB win
OR 7) CAR tie + MIN win + GB win

 

AFC

NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NE loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie
OR 3) PIT win/tie
OR 4) HOU win + BAL win/tie
OR 5) HOU win + DEN win
OR 6) HOU tie + BAL win

 

NE is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) NE loss/tie

 

NYJ is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) KC win/tie
OR 2) PIT win/tie
OR 3) HOU win + BAL win/tie
OR 4) HOU tie + BAL win

 

CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CLE loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie
OR 3) HOU win + BAL win/tie
OR 4) HOU tie + BAL win

 

CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:
         1) CLE loss
OR 2) CLE tie + BAL win

 

TEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) TEN loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie
OR 3) PIT win/tie

 

TEN is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) TEN loss

 

LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) LV loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie
OR 3) LAC win

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 12

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DET 60% 11% <1% <1% 21% 6% 2% <1%
PHI 17% 57% 8% 1% 3% 6% 5% 2%
ARI <1% 5% 35% 13% <1% 1% 5% 40%
ATL <1% 3% 21% 58% <1% <1% <1% 17%
MIN 17% 6% <1% <1% 47% 20% 8% 3%
GB 4% 2% <1% <1% 21% 35% 24% 14%
WAS 2% 12% 2% <1% 8% 26% 31% 18%
LAR <1% 1% 10% 5% <1% 1% 5% 77%
SEA <1% 1% 13% 3% <1% 1% 5% 76%
SF <1% 1% 8% 3% <1% 2% 6% 79%
TB <1% <1% 2% 9% <1% <1% 2% 87%
CHI <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 96%
NO <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% 1% 95%
CAR <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% 97%
DAL <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
NYG   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
KC 46% 26% 14% 2% 10% 1% <1% <1%
BUF 30% 36% 26% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1%
PIT 18% 24% 31% 10% 8% 7% 2% <1%
HOU 2% 6% 16% 71% <1% 1% 2% 3%
LAC 3% 4% 3% 1% 50% 25% 11% 4%
BAL 1% 4% 9% 3% 23% 37% 16% 7%
DEN <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 19% 36% 38%
IND <1% <1% <1% 5% 1% 7% 18% 69%
MIA <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 10% 86%
CIN <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 95%
NYJ <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
NE <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
CLE <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
TEN <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
LV   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
JAX     <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 12

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET PIT(2) KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI BUF

Teams that control the 3 seed:
ARI(4)

Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL(3) SEA HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN GB LAC

Teams that control the 6 seed:
BAL(3)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS(2) DEN

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL NYG CHI(7) TB NO CAR LAR SF(4)
MIA NYJ NE CIN CLE IND TEN JAX LV

 

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