Standings Entering Week 13

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DET 10-1 6-1  
2 PHI 9-2 6-2  
3 SEA 6-5 3-4 SEA wins the tiebreak over ARI on Head-to-Head (1-0). SEA wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head.
4 ATL 6-5 6-2  
5 MIN 9-2 4-2  
6 GB 8-3 4-3  
7 WAS 7-5 5-3  
8 ARI 6-5 3-4  
9 TB 5-6 5-3 LAR wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0). TB wins the tiebreak over LAR on Conference Record (5-3 vs 3-5).
10 LAR 5-6 3-5 LAR wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0).
11 SF 5-6 3-5  
12 NO 4-7 3-4 NO wins the tiebreak over CHI/DAL on Conference Record (3-4 vs 2-4/2-5).
13 CHI 4-7 2-4 CHI wins the tiebreak over DAL on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-5).
14 DAL 4-7 2-5  
15 CAR 3-8 2-4  
16 NYGk 2-9 1-7  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KC 10-1 5-1  
2 BUF 9-2 7-2  
3 PIT 8-3 5-2  
4 HOU 7-5 5-2  
5 BAL 8-4 5-4  
6 LAC 7-4 5-3  
7 DEN 7-5 3-4  
8 MIA 5-6 4-4  
9 IND 5-7 4-4  
10 CIN 4-7 2-5  
11 CLE 3-8 3-3 CLE wins the tiebreak over TEN/NYJ on Conference Record (3-3 vs 3-4/3-5).
12 NYJ 3-8 3-5 NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head.
13 TEN 3-8 3-4  
14 NEk 3-9 2-6  
15 JAX 2-9 2-4 JAX wins the tiebreak over LV on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-7).
16 LVk 2-9 2-7  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 9-2 3-0  
2 WAS 7-5 2-2  
3 DAL 4-7 2-1  
4 NYGk 2-9 0-4  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DET 10-1 2-0  
2 MIN 9-2 2-1  
3 GB 8-3 1-2  
4 CHI 4-7 0-2  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 ATL 6-5 4-1  
2 TB 5-6 1-2  
3 NO 4-7 2-3  
4 CAR 3-8 1-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SEA 6-5 2-2 SEA wins the tiebreak over ARI on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 ARI 6-5 2-1  
3 LAR 5-6 2-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4 SF 5-6 1-3  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUF 9-2 3-0  
2 MIA 5-6 2-2  
3 NYJ 3-8 1-2  
4 NEk 3-9 1-3  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 8-3 1-1  
2 BAL 8-4 2-2  
3 CIN 4-7 1-2  
4 CLE 3-8 2-1  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 HOU 7-5 3-1  
2 IND 5-7 1-3  
3 TEN 3-8 1-1  
4 JAX 2-9 1-1  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KC 10-1 3-0  
2 LAC 7-4 2-1  
3 DEN 7-5 2-2  
4 LVk 2-9 0-4  

k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 

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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 13

NFC

DET clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) DET win + SF loss/tie + SEA loss + ARI loss/tie + TB loss/tie
OR 2) DET win + SF loss/tie + SEA tie + ARI loss + TB loss/tie
OR 3) DET win + SF loss/tie + SEA loss + ARI loss/tie + ATL loss + WAS loss/tie
OR 4) DET win + SF loss/tie + SEA tie + ARI loss + ATL loss + WAS loss/tie
OR 5) DET win + SF loss/tie + SEA loss + ARI loss/tie + ATL tie + WAS loss
OR 6) DET win + SF loss/tie + SEA tie + ARI loss + ATL tie + WAS loss
OR 7) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + IND win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, ATL, TEN)
OR 8) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI win + IND win + DAL win + TEN win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 9) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI win + IND win + TEN win + DAL tie + ATL tie + PIT win + HOU win + DEN win
OR 10) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI win + IND tie + DAL win + ATL win + TEN win + PIT win + HOU win + DEN win
OR 11) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + ATL win
OR 12) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + ATL tie + DAL tie + 1 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 13) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + DAL win + 0.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 14) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI tie + IND win + TEN tie + ATL win + DAL tie
OR 15) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI tie + IND win + TEN tie + DAL win + ATL tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 16) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI tie + IND win + DAL win + ATL win
OR 17) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR loss + PHI tie + IND tie + DAL win + ATL win + TEN win + 1 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 18) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR tie + IND win + DAL win + ATL win + TEN win
OR 19) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR tie + PHI win + IND win + TEN win + ATL win + DAL tie + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 20) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR tie + PHI win + IND win + TEN win + ATL tie + DAL win + 2 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 21) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR tie + PHI win + IND win + TEN tie + ATL win + DAL win + PIT win + HOU win + DEN win
OR 22) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR tie + PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + DAL win + ATL tie
OR 23) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR tie + PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + ATL win + DAL tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 24) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR tie + PHI tie + IND win + TEN tie + DAL win + ATL win + 1 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN)
OR 25) DET tie + SF loss + SEA loss + ARI loss + TB loss + GB win + LAR tie + PHI loss + IND win + TEN win + DAL win + ATL tie + HOU win + DEN win

The portions of italics are for DET clinching Strength of Victory over ARI or clinching a tie in Strength of Victory over ARI while clinching Strength of Victory over PHI

 

AFC

BUF clinches the AFC East division title with:
         1) BUF win + MIA loss

 

KC clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) KC win + MIA loss/tie
OR 2) KC win + DEN loss
OR 3) KC win + DEN tie + LAC loss
OR 4) KC tie + MIA loss

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 13

NFC

NYG is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NYG loss
OR 2) NYG tie + WAS win/tie
OR 3) GB win/tie + WAS win

 

DAL is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) DAL loss + PHI win/tie
OR 2) DAL tie + PHI win

 

CHI is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:
         1) CHI loss/tie
OR 2) MIN win/tie
OR 3) GB win/tie

 

DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DAL loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie
OR 3) MIN win/tie
OR 4) GB win/tie

 

CHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CHI loss/tie
OR 2) MIN win/tie
OR 3) GB win/tie

 

TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) TB loss + DET win/tie
OR 2) TB loss + MIN win/tie
OR 3) TB loss + GB win/tie
OR 4) TB tie + DET win
OR 5) TB tie + DET tie + MIN win
OR 6) TB tie + DET tie + MIN tie + GB win
OR 7) TB tie + MIN win + GB win

 

NO is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NO loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie
OR 3) MIN win/tie
OR 4) GB win/tie

 

LAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) LAR loss
OR 2) LAR tie + DET win
OR 3) LAR tie + DET tie + MIN tie + GB tie
OR 4) LAR tie + MIN win
OR 5) LAR tie + MIN tie + GB win
OR 6) DET win + MIN win
OR 7) DET tie + MIN win + GB win

 

SF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) SF loss + DET win/tie
OR 2) SF loss + MIN win/tie
OR 3) SF loss + GB win/tie
OR 4) SF tie + DET win
OR 5) SF tie + DET tie + MIN win
OR 6) SF tie + DET tie + MIN tie + GB win
OR 7) SF tie + MIN win + GB win

 

AFC

NE is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NE loss + LAC win/tie + DEN win/tie
OR 2) NE loss + LAC win/tie + HOU win/tie
OR 3) NE loss + LAC win/tie + MIA win
OR 4) NE tie + LAC win + DEN win

 

LV is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) LV loss
OR 2) LV tie + LAC win/tie + DEN win/tie

 

JAX is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) JAX loss/tie

 

JAX is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) JAX loss + LAC win/tie + DEN win/tie
OR 2) JAX tie + LAC win + DEN win

 

NYJ is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) NYJ loss/tie
OR 2) BUF win/tie

 

MIA is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) MIA loss + BUF win

 

CIN is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:
         1) CIN loss

 

CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:
         1) CLE loss
OR 2) CLE tie + BAL win/tie
OR 3) CLE tie + PIT win/tie
OR 4) BAL win + PIT win/tie
OR 5) BAL tie + PIT win

 

DEN is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) DEN loss + KC win

 

MIA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) MIA loss + KC win/tie
OR 2) MIA loss + BUF win
OR 3) MIA tie + KC win

 

CIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CIN loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie
OR 3) BUF win

 

IND is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) IND loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie
OR 3) HOU win + PIT win + BAL win

 

DEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DEN loss + KC win

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 13

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DET 61% 11% <1% <1% 22% 5% <1% <1%
PHI 19% 73% 3% <1% <1% 2% 2% <1%
SEA <1% 1% 29% 10% <1% 1% 6% 53%
ATL <1% 2% 26% 49% <1% <1% 1% 21%
MIN 17% 6% <1% <1% 53% 20% 3% <1%
GB 3% 2% <1% <1% 22% 54% 15% 3%
WAS <1% 4% 1% <1% 2% 15% 50% 28%
ARI <1% 1% 24% 15% <1% 1% 6% 54%
TB <1% <1% 6% 12% <1% <1% 6% 76%
LAR <1% <1% 6% 7% <1% <1% 3% 84%
SF <1% <1% 4% 3% <1% <1% 4% 89%
NO <1% <1% 1% 3% <1% <1% 2% 95%
CHI <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
DAL <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 98%
CAR   <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
NYG           <1% <1% >99%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
KC 65% 24% 7% <1% 3% 1% <1% <1%
BUF 26% 44% 26% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1%
PIT 7% 18% 35% 6% 18% 12% 4% 1%
HOU <1% 2% 10% 82% <1% <1% 1% 4%
BAL 1% 11% 20% 3% 32% 22% 8% 2%
LAC 1% 1% 1% <1% 31% 33% 23% 9%
DEN <1% <1% <1% <1% 14% 25% 38% 23%
MIA <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 14% 79%
IND <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% 1% 7% 87%
CIN <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 96%
CLE   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
NYJ   <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
TEN   <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
NE         <1% <1% <1% >99%
JAX       <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
LV         <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 13

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI BUF

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PIT(1)

Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL SEA ARI(3) LAR(E) HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN GB

Teams that control the 6 seed:
BAL LAC(5)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS DEN

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL NYG CHI TB NO CAR SF
MIA NYJ NE CIN CLE IND TEN JAX LV

 

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