Standings Entering Week 13
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
Record |
Conf. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
DET |
10-1 |
6-1 |
|
2 |
PHI |
9-2 |
6-2 |
|
3 |
SEA |
6-5 |
3-4 |
SEA wins the tiebreak over ARI on Head-to-Head (1-0). SEA wins the tiebreak over ATL on Head-to-Head. |
4 |
ATL |
6-5 |
6-2 |
|
5 |
MIN |
9-2 |
4-2 |
|
6 |
GB |
8-3 |
4-3 |
|
7 |
WAS |
7-5 |
5-3 |
|
8 |
ARI |
6-5 |
3-4 |
|
9 |
TB |
5-6 |
5-3 |
LAR wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0). TB wins the tiebreak over LAR on Conference Record (5-3 vs 3-5). |
10 |
LAR |
5-6 |
3-5 |
LAR wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
11 |
SF |
5-6 |
3-5 |
|
12 |
NO |
4-7 |
3-4 |
NO wins the tiebreak over CHI/DAL on Conference Record (3-4 vs 2-4/2-5). |
13 |
CHI |
4-7 |
2-4 |
CHI wins the tiebreak over DAL on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-5). |
14 |
DAL |
4-7 |
2-5 |
|
15 |
CAR |
3-8 |
2-4 |
|
16 |
NYGk |
2-9 |
1-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
Record |
Conf. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
KC |
10-1 |
5-1 |
|
2 |
BUF |
9-2 |
7-2 |
|
3 |
PIT |
8-3 |
5-2 |
|
4 |
HOU |
7-5 |
5-2 |
|
5 |
BAL |
8-4 |
5-4 |
|
6 |
LAC |
7-4 |
5-3 |
|
7 |
DEN |
7-5 |
3-4 |
|
8 |
MIA |
5-6 |
4-4 |
|
9 |
IND |
5-7 |
4-4 |
|
10 |
CIN |
4-7 |
2-5 |
|
11 |
CLE |
3-8 |
3-3 |
CLE wins the tiebreak over TEN/NYJ on Conference Record (3-3 vs 3-4/3-5). |
12 |
NYJ |
3-8 |
3-5 |
NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head. |
13 |
TEN |
3-8 |
3-4 |
|
14 |
NEk |
3-9 |
2-6 |
|
15 |
JAX |
2-9 |
2-4 |
JAX wins the tiebreak over LV on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-7). |
16 |
LVk |
2-9 |
2-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
East |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
PHI |
9-2 |
3-0 |
|
2 |
WAS |
7-5 |
2-2 |
|
3 |
DAL |
4-7 |
2-1 |
|
4 |
NYGk |
2-9 |
0-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
North |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
DET |
10-1 |
2-0 |
|
2 |
MIN |
9-2 |
2-1 |
|
3 |
GB |
8-3 |
1-2 |
|
4 |
CHI |
4-7 |
0-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
South |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
ATL |
6-5 |
4-1 |
|
2 |
TB |
5-6 |
1-2 |
|
3 |
NO |
4-7 |
2-3 |
|
4 |
CAR |
3-8 |
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC |
West |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
SEA |
6-5 |
2-2 |
SEA wins the tiebreak over ARI on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
2 |
ARI |
6-5 |
2-1 |
|
3 |
LAR |
5-6 |
2-1 |
LAR wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
4 |
SF |
5-6 |
1-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
East |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
BUF |
9-2 |
3-0 |
|
2 |
MIA |
5-6 |
2-2 |
|
3 |
NYJ |
3-8 |
1-2 |
|
4 |
NEk |
3-9 |
1-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
North |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
PIT |
8-3 |
1-1 |
|
2 |
BAL |
8-4 |
2-2 |
|
3 |
CIN |
4-7 |
1-2 |
|
4 |
CLE |
3-8 |
2-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
South |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
HOU |
7-5 |
3-1 |
|
2 |
IND |
5-7 |
1-3 |
|
3 |
TEN |
3-8 |
1-1 |
|
4 |
JAX |
2-9 |
1-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC |
West |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
1 |
KC |
10-1 |
3-0 |
|
2 |
LAC |
7-4 |
2-1 |
|
3 |
DEN |
7-5 |
2-2 |
|
4 |
LVk |
2-9 |
0-4 |
|
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 13
NFC
DET clinches a playoff berth with: |
|
1) |
DET win +
SF loss/tie +
SEA loss +
ARI loss/tie +
TB loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
DET win +
SF loss/tie +
SEA tie +
ARI loss +
TB loss/tie |
OR |
3) |
DET win +
SF loss/tie +
SEA loss +
ARI loss/tie +
ATL loss +
WAS loss/tie |
OR |
4) |
DET win +
SF loss/tie +
SEA tie +
ARI loss +
ATL loss +
WAS loss/tie |
OR |
5) |
DET win +
SF loss/tie +
SEA loss +
ARI loss/tie +
ATL tie +
WAS loss |
OR |
6) |
DET win +
SF loss/tie +
SEA tie +
ARI loss +
ATL tie +
WAS loss |
OR |
7) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss + IND win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, ATL, TEN) |
OR |
8) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI win + IND win + DAL win + TEN win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
9) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI win + IND win + TEN win + DAL tie + ATL tie + PIT win + HOU win + DEN win |
OR |
10) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI win + IND tie + DAL win + ATL win + TEN win + PIT win + HOU win + DEN win |
OR |
11) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + ATL win |
OR |
12) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + ATL tie + DAL tie + 1 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
13) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + DAL win + 0.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
14) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI tie + IND win + TEN tie + ATL win + DAL tie |
OR |
15) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI tie + IND win + TEN tie + DAL win + ATL tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
16) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI tie + IND win + DAL win + ATL win |
OR |
17) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR loss +
PHI tie + IND tie + DAL win + ATL win + TEN win + 1 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
18) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR tie + IND win + DAL win + ATL win + TEN win |
OR |
19) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR tie +
PHI win + IND win + TEN win + ATL win + DAL tie + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
20) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR tie +
PHI win + IND win + TEN win + ATL tie + DAL win + 2 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
21) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR tie +
PHI win + IND win + TEN tie + ATL win + DAL win + PIT win + HOU win + DEN win |
OR |
22) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR tie +
PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + DAL win + ATL tie |
OR |
23) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR tie +
PHI tie + IND win + TEN win + ATL win + DAL tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
24) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR tie +
PHI tie + IND win + TEN tie + DAL win + ATL win + 1 or more combined wins from (PIT, HOU, DEN) |
OR |
25) |
DET tie +
SF loss +
SEA loss +
ARI loss +
TB loss +
GB win +
LAR tie +
PHI loss + IND win + TEN win + DAL win + ATL tie + HOU win + DEN win |
The portions of italics are for DET clinching Strength of Victory over ARI or clinching a tie in Strength of Victory over ARI while clinching Strength of Victory over PHI
AFC
BUF clinches the AFC East division title with: |
|
1) |
BUF win +
MIA loss |
KC clinches a playoff berth with: |
|
1) |
KC win +
MIA loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
KC win +
DEN loss |
OR |
3) |
KC win +
DEN tie +
LAC loss |
OR |
4) |
KC tie +
MIA loss |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 13
NFC
NYG is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
NYG loss |
OR |
2) |
NYG tie +
WAS win/tie |
OR |
3) |
GB win/tie +
WAS win |
DAL is knocked out of NFC East title contention with: |
|
1) |
DAL loss +
PHI win/tie |
OR |
2) |
DAL tie +
PHI win |
CHI is knocked out of NFC North title contention with: |
|
1) |
CHI loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
MIN win/tie |
OR |
3) |
GB win/tie |
DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
DAL loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
DET win/tie |
OR |
3) |
MIN win/tie |
OR |
4) |
GB win/tie |
CHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
CHI loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
MIN win/tie |
OR |
3) |
GB win/tie |
TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
TB loss +
DET win/tie |
OR |
2) |
TB loss +
MIN win/tie |
OR |
3) |
TB loss +
GB win/tie |
OR |
4) |
TB tie +
DET win |
OR |
5) |
TB tie +
DET tie +
MIN win |
OR |
6) |
TB tie +
DET tie +
MIN tie +
GB win |
OR |
7) |
TB tie +
MIN win +
GB win |
NO is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
NO loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
DET win/tie |
OR |
3) |
MIN win/tie |
OR |
4) |
GB win/tie |
LAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
LAR loss |
OR |
2) |
LAR tie +
DET win |
OR |
3) |
LAR tie +
DET tie +
MIN tie +
GB tie |
OR |
4) |
LAR tie +
MIN win |
OR |
5) |
LAR tie +
MIN tie +
GB win |
OR |
6) |
DET win +
MIN win |
OR |
7) |
DET tie +
MIN win +
GB win |
SF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
SF loss +
DET win/tie |
OR |
2) |
SF loss +
MIN win/tie |
OR |
3) |
SF loss +
GB win/tie |
OR |
4) |
SF tie +
DET win |
OR |
5) |
SF tie +
DET tie +
MIN win |
OR |
6) |
SF tie +
DET tie +
MIN tie +
GB win |
OR |
7) |
SF tie +
MIN win +
GB win |
AFC
NE is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
NE loss +
LAC win/tie +
DEN win/tie |
OR |
2) |
NE loss +
LAC win/tie +
HOU win/tie |
OR |
3) |
NE loss +
LAC win/tie +
MIA win |
OR |
4) |
NE tie +
LAC win +
DEN win |
LV is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
LV loss |
OR |
2) |
LV tie +
LAC win/tie +
DEN win/tie |
JAX is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
|
1) |
JAX loss/tie |
JAX is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
|
1) |
JAX loss +
LAC win/tie +
DEN win/tie |
OR |
2) |
JAX tie +
LAC win +
DEN win |
NYJ is knocked out of AFC East title contention with: |
|
1) |
NYJ loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
BUF win/tie |
MIA is knocked out of AFC East title contention with: |
|
1) |
MIA loss +
BUF win |
CIN is knocked out of AFC North title contention with: |
|
1) |
CIN loss |
CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with: |
|
1) |
CLE loss |
OR |
2) |
CLE tie +
BAL win/tie |
OR |
3) |
CLE tie +
PIT win/tie |
OR |
4) |
BAL win +
PIT win/tie |
OR |
5) |
BAL tie +
PIT win |
DEN is knocked out of AFC West title contention with: |
|
1) |
DEN loss +
KC win |
MIA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
MIA loss +
KC win/tie |
OR |
2) |
MIA loss +
BUF win |
OR |
3) |
MIA tie +
KC win |
CIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
CIN loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
KC win/tie |
OR |
3) |
BUF win |
IND is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
IND loss/tie |
OR |
2) |
KC win/tie |
OR |
3) |
HOU win +
PIT win +
BAL win |
DEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
|
1) |
DEN loss +
KC win |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 13
Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
|
1 seed |
2 seed |
3 seed |
4 seed |
5 seed |
6 seed |
7 seed |
Miss Playoffs |
DET |
61% |
11% |
<1% |
<1% |
22% |
5% |
<1% |
<1% |
PHI |
19% |
73% |
3% |
<1% |
<1% |
2% |
2% |
<1% |
SEA |
<1% |
1% |
29% |
10% |
<1% |
1% |
6% |
53% |
ATL |
<1% |
2% |
26% |
49% |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
21% |
MIN |
17% |
6% |
<1% |
<1% |
53% |
20% |
3% |
<1% |
GB |
3% |
2% |
<1% |
<1% |
22% |
54% |
15% |
3% |
WAS |
<1% |
4% |
1% |
<1% |
2% |
15% |
50% |
28% |
ARI |
<1% |
1% |
24% |
15% |
<1% |
1% |
6% |
54% |
TB |
<1% |
<1% |
6% |
12% |
<1% |
<1% |
6% |
76% |
LAR |
<1% |
<1% |
6% |
7% |
<1% |
<1% |
3% |
84% |
SF |
<1% |
<1% |
4% |
3% |
<1% |
<1% |
4% |
89% |
NO |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
3% |
<1% |
<1% |
2% |
95% |
CHI |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
99% |
DAL |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
2% |
98% |
CAR |
|
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
99% |
NYG |
|
|
|
|
|
<1% |
<1% |
>99% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
|
1 seed |
2 seed |
3 seed |
4 seed |
5 seed |
6 seed |
7 seed |
Miss Playoffs |
KC |
65% |
24% |
7% |
<1% |
3% |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
BUF |
26% |
44% |
26% |
4% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
PIT |
7% |
18% |
35% |
6% |
18% |
12% |
4% |
1% |
HOU |
<1% |
2% |
10% |
82% |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
4% |
BAL |
1% |
11% |
20% |
3% |
32% |
22% |
8% |
2% |
LAC |
1% |
1% |
1% |
<1% |
31% |
33% |
23% |
9% |
DEN |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
14% |
25% |
38% |
23% |
MIA |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
2% |
5% |
14% |
79% |
IND |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
4% |
<1% |
1% |
7% |
87% |
CIN |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
3% |
96% |
CLE |
|
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
99% |
NYJ |
|
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
>99% |
TEN |
|
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
99% |
NE |
|
|
|
|
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
>99% |
JAX |
|
|
|
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
>99% |
LV |
|
|
|
|
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
>99% |
Seed Control Entering Week 13
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET
KC
Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI
BUF
Teams that control the 3 seed:
PIT(1)
Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL
SEA
ARI(3)
LAR(E)
HOU
Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN
GB
Teams that control the 6 seed:
BAL
LAC(5)
Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS
DEN
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
NYG
CHI
TB
NO
CAR
SF
MIA
NYJ
NE
CIN
CLE
IND
TEN
JAX
LV
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