Standings Entering Week 15

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DETx 12-1 8-1  
2 PHIx 11-2 7-2  
3 SEA 8-5 4-4  
4 TB 7-6 6-3  
5 MIN 11-2 6-2  
6 GB 9-4 4-4  
7 WAS 8-5 5-3  
8 LAR 7-6 4-5  
9 ATL 6-7 6-3 ARI wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0). ATL wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (6-3 vs 3-6).
10 ARI 6-7 3-6 ARI wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0).
11 SF 6-7 4-5  
12 NO 5-8 4-5 NO wins the tiebreak over DAL on Head-to-Head.
13 DALk 5-8 3-5  
14 CHIk 4-9 2-6  
15 CAR 3-10 2-6  
16 NYGke 2-11 1-9  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 12-1 7-1  
2 BUFxy 10-3 7-2 BUF wins the tiebreak over PIT on Strength of Victory (59-71 vs 53-77).
3 PIT 10-3 7-2  
4 HOU 8-5 6-2  
5 BAL 8-5 5-4 LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). BAL wins the tiebreak over LAC on Head-to-Head.
6 LACk 8-5 5-4 LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
7 DENk 8-5 4-4  
8 IND 6-7 5-4 IND wins the tiebreak over MIA on Head-to-Head.
9 MIAk 6-7 5-4  
10 CINk 5-8 2-6  
11 CLEke 3-10 3-5 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-4 vs 0-7). NYJ drops out of the tiebreak with CLE/JAX on Conference Record (3-6 vs 3-5). CLE wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head.
12 JAXke 3-10 3-5 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-4 vs 0-7). JAX wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-6).
13 NYJke 3-10 3-6 NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-4 vs 0-7). NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head.
14 TENke 3-10 3-5 TEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Head-to-Head.
15 NEke 3-10 2-7  
16 LVke 2-11 2-8  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIx 11-2 3-0  
2 WAS 8-5 2-2  
3 DALk 5-8 3-1  
4 NYGke 2-11 0-5  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DETx 12-1 4-0  
2 MIN 11-2 2-1  
3 GB 9-4 1-3  
4 CHIk 4-9 0-3  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 7-6 2-2  
2 ATL 6-7 4-1  
3 NO 5-8 2-3  
4 CAR 3-10 1-3  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SEA 8-5 3-2  
2 LAR 7-6 2-1  
3 ARI 6-7 2-2 ARI wins the tiebreak over SF on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4 SF 6-7 1-3  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUFxy 10-3 3-0  
2 MIAk 6-7 3-2  
3 NYJke 3-10 1-3 NYJ wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (2-4 vs 0-7).
4 NEke 3-10 1-3  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 10-3 3-1  
2 BAL 8-5 2-2  
3 CINk 5-8 1-3  
4 CLEke 3-10 2-2  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 HOU 8-5 4-1  
2 IND 6-7 1-3  
3 JAXke 3-10 2-2 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4 TENke 3-10 1-2  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 12-1 5-0  
2 LACk 8-5 2-2 LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 DENk 8-5 2-2  
4 LVke 2-11 0-5  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 

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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 15

NFC

PHI clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) PHI win + WAS loss/tie
OR 2) PHI tie + WAS loss

 

MIN clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) MIN win/tie
OR 2) LAR loss/tie
OR 3) SEA loss/tie

 

GB clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) GB win + LAR/ SF tie + ATL loss/tie

 

AFC

HOU clinches the AFC South division title with:
         1) HOU win + IND loss

 

PIT clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) PIT win/tie
OR 2) IND loss/tie + MIA loss/tie

 

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 15

NFC

CAR is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) CAR loss/tie
OR 2) TB win/tie
OR 3) ATL win

 

DAL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DAL loss + WAS win/tie
OR 2) DAL tie + WAS win

 

CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CHI loss/tie
OR 2) WAS win/tie

 

WAS is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) WAS loss + PHI win/tie
OR 2) WAS tie + PHI win

 

GB is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:
         1) GB loss
OR 2) GB tie + MIN win/tie
OR 3) GB tie + DET tie
OR 4) DET win
OR 5) DET tie + MIN win

 

SF is knocked out of NFC West title contention with:
         1) SF loss + SEA win/tie

 

SEA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) SEA loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie
OR 3) MIN win/tie
OR 4) PHI win/tie

 

WAS is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) WAS loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie
OR 3) MIN win/tie

 

GB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) GB loss
OR 2) GB tie + MIN win/tie
OR 3) GB tie + DET tie
OR 4) DET win
OR 5) DET tie + MIN win

 

AFC

CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CIN loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) CIN tie + BAL win/tie + LAC win/tie + DEN win

 

IND is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) IND loss + HOU win

 

BAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) BAL loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie
OR 3) BUF loss/tie

 

HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) HOU loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 15

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DET 74% 9%     18% <1% <1%  
PHI 12% 86% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1%  
SEA <1% <1% 59% 11% <1% 1% 5% 24%
TB   <1% 18% 53%   <1% 2% 27%
MIN 14% 3%     75% 7% <1% <1%
GB <1% <1%     7% 67% 24% 2%
WAS <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 24% 58% 16%
LAR     18% 8%   <1% 5% 69%
ATL     1% 23%   <1% 1% 74%
ARI     1% 1%   <1% 1% 97%
SF     1% <1%   <1% 3% 96%
NO     <1% 3%   <1% <1% 96%
DAL           <1% <1% >99%
CHI             <1% >99%
CAR       <1%       >99%
NYG               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
KC 87% 10% 2% <1%        
BUF 5% 46% 43% 5%        
PIT 8% 40% 41% 4% 5% 2% <1% <1%
HOU <1% 2% 9% 87% <1% <1% <1% 2%
BAL <1% 2% 4% 1% 34% 33% 19% 7%
LAC         32% 30% 29% 9%
DEN         29% 29% 31% 11%
IND   <1% <1% 2% 1% 3% 10% 84%
MIA         <1% 3% 9% 87%
CIN         <1% <1% 1% 99%
CLE               100%
JAX               100%
NYJ               100%
TEN               100%
NE               100%
LV               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 15

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI

Teams that control the 3 seed:
SEA BUF(2) PIT

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB(7) LAR HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
MIN BAL(6)

Teams that control the 6 seed:
GB(5) LAC(5) DEN(7)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL CHI ATL(4) NO CAR ARI(4) SF MIA CIN IND

Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG NYJ NE CLE TEN JAX LV

 

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