Every Team’s Simplest Path to the Playoffs (2024 Week 16)

Introduction (please read!)
See the Playoff Picture entering week 16 here
NFC
AFC
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Introduction (please read!)

With only 3 weeks to go, the playoff picture is becoming increasingly clear. With that said, we have at least one clear path for any team that has not yet clinched and is not yet eliminated to make the playoffs. This post is here to show one way for each team to make the playoffs. Note that the scenarios listed here are not exhaustive - there may be other ways for these teams to reach the playoffs. The scenarios listed here are the simplest way for each team (in terms of either needed help or avoiding tiebreaker silliness). There will only be one scenario listed for each team, as the goal of this post is to show the path of least resistance, not all the possibilities. With a few exceptions for teams close to clinching, every scenario begins with the team in question winning out.

See the Playoff Picture entering week 16 here

NFC

NFC East

PHI has already clinched a playoff berth

NYG has already been eliminated from playoff contention

WAS

WAS wins 2 games

DAL

DAL wins out
WAS loses out
ARI loses a game
SEA or LAR loses 2 games
SF loses a game
TB loses one of their last 2

Notes:
For WAS, the only way they miss with 1 win is for ATL & TB to both finish with 10 wins or else for SEA & LAR to win weeks 16 & 17 and tie week 18.

For DAL, there are a few different tiebreaker setups, but to avoid the most silliness, what we have here is a situation where DAL gets ahead of SEA/LAR/ARI on conference record and TB on head-to-head. If LAR or SEA loses exactly 2 games (and the other one doesn’t lose 3), the SF result is not important, as they couldn’t get past LAR/SEA/ARI in division, so one of them would have to lose out for SF to matter. I put it in here, though, to cover all bases.

NFC North

DET & MIN have already clinched a playoff berths

CHI has already been eliminated from playoff contention

GB wins a game

Notes:
For GB, the only way they miss if they lose out is for ATL & TB to both finish with 10 wins or else for SEA & LAR to win weeks 16 & 17 and tie week 18.

NFC South

CAR has already been eliminated from playoff contention

TB wins out

ATL

ATL wins out
TB loses a game

NO wins out
TB loses weeks 16 & 17
ATL loses out

Notes:
All of these are for clinching the NFC South. ATL has guaranteed tiebreakers over TB (head-to-head), NO (division record), and the 3-way with TB/NO (head-to-head). Thus, TB’s scenario is to get them past ATL on pure record, ATL’s scenario is to get them into at least a tie with TB, and NO’s scenario requires ATL to go 7-10, but NO/TB at 8-9 goes to NO on division record.

NFC West

LAR

LAR wins weeks 17 & 18

SEA

SEA wins out

ARI

ARI wins out
SEA loses 2 games

SF wins out
WAS loses out
ATL loses weeks 16 & 18
LAR or SEA loses out
ARI loses week 16 or 17

Notes:
For LAR, winning weeks 17 & 18 over ARI & SEA gives them the division, as they’d have head-to-head over SEA. With SEA, winning out gets them the division on pure record. For ARI, in the process of winning out, they will have a sweep over LAR, and will have delievered LAR a loss in week 17. If that happens, LAR beats SEA in week 18, and SEA, ARI, and LAR end up in a 3-way tie at 10-7, ARI will win the division, but to prevent the force of LAR winning week 16 as well, we leave SEA out of the picture altogether by giving them a worse record.

For SF, we have endless amounts of fun. First, ATL is specified as weeks 16 & 18, because they have to beat WAS in week 17 as part of WAS losing out. Next, SF can’t win any division tiebreaker at 9-8, and the only way for them to even clinch their division is for SEA & LAR to lose weeks 16 & 17 and then tie week 18, so we’re ignoring that and instead putting SEA or LAR as well as ARI to 9 losses. (ARI gets their 8th loss in week 18 against SF in this scenario). Finally, there is the world where DAL also wins out and TB loses one of their last 2, where we get a SF/TB/DAL tie, in which case SF would advance on head-to-head sweep, but that requires DAL to win out, as a 3-way tie with TB or ATL and SF/WAS would go to TB/ATL on conference record, so we didn’t use that one and instead just had ATL losing out to get them out of the picture on record alone.

AFC

AFC East

BUF has already clinched a playoff berth

NE & NYJ have already been eliminated from playoff contention

MIA

MIA wins out
IND loses a game
LAC loses 2 games

Notes:

MIA wins the conference record tiebreaker over BAL/CIN/DEN/LAC, but would lose head-to-head to IND (there would be no 3rd team that could bypass that), so all they need is for IND to lose a game, and one of BAL/DEN/LAC to finish 9-8. LAC was chosen since they have 1 more loss than BAL or DEN.

AFC North

PIT has already clinched a playoff berth

CLE has already been eliminated from playoff contention

BAL

BAL wins a game

CIN

CIN wins out
The loser of LAC/DEN loses their last 2
IND loses a game
MIA loses a game

Notes:
For BAL, they lose the conference record tiebreaker to MIA & IND, so both of them would need to lose another game if BAL loses out.

For CIN, they cannot pass BAL because of BAL’s sweep of CIN. They lose the conference record tiebreaker to MIA & IND, they lose head-to-head to LAC (and no 3-way tie can bypass it). They have conference record and head-to-head on DEN, so DEN is the only team they can win a tie with. If LAC loses to DEN, then CIN would have to get past LAC on pure record, which means LAC would have to lose their last 2. If DEN defeats LAC, then loses their last 2, both them and CIN would be 9-8, and CIN would take the last slot.

AFC South

HOU has already clinched a playoff berth

TEN & JAX are already eliminated from playoff contention

IND

IND wins out
LAC loses 2 games

Notes:
IND wins head-to-head on MIA, so MIA doesn’t matter (no other team could force a 3-way to bypass it), they also have conference record on BAL, CIN, and LAC. They have conference record on DEN but a head-to-head loss. So they could finish ahead of anyone in some ties, and everyone but DEN in 2-way ties. LAC losing 2 games is the fewest games required to get us into this situation.

AFC West

KC has already clinched a playoff berth

LV has already been eliminated from playoff contention

DEN

DEN wins a game

LAC

LAC wins 2 games

Notes:
As simple as it comes. LAC & DEN lose most tiebreakers, but have an easy path by being able to get past IND/CIN/MIA on pure record.

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