Standings Entering Week 16

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DETx 12-2 8-1 DET wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). DET wins the tiebreak over PHI on Conference Record (8-1 vs 7-2).
2 PHIx 12-2 7-2  
3 TB 8-6 6-3 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). TB wins the tiebreak over LAR on Conference Record (6-3 vs 5-5).
4 LAR 8-6 5-5 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
5 MINx 12-2 7-2  
6 GB 10-4 5-4  
7 WAS 9-5 6-3  
8 SEA 8-6 4-5  
9 ATL 7-7 6-3 ATL wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (6-3 vs 3-6).
10 ARI 7-7 3-6  
11 SF 6-8 4-6 SF wins the tiebreak over DAL on Head-to-Head.
12 DALk 6-8 4-5  
13 NO 5-9 4-6  
14 CHIke 4-10 2-7  
15 CARke 3-11 2-7  
16 NYGke 2-12 1-9  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 13-1 8-1  
2 BUFxy 11-3 7-2  
3 PITx 10-4 7-2  
4 HOUxy 9-5 7-2  
5 BAL 9-5 5-4 BAL wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head.
6 DENk 9-5 5-4  
7 LACk 8-6 5-4  
8 INDk 6-8 5-5 CIN drops out of the tiebreak with MIA/IND on Conference Record (3-6 vs 5-5). IND wins the tiebreak over MIA on Head-to-Head.
9 MIAk 6-8 5-5 MIA wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (5-5 vs 3-6).
10 CINk 6-8 3-6  
11 NYJke 4-10 4-6  
12 CLEke 3-11 3-6 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). NE drops out of the tiebreak with CLE/JAX on Conference Record (2-7 vs 3-6). CLE wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head.
13 JAXke 3-11 3-6 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). JAX wins the tiebreak over NE on Head-to-Head.
14 TENke 3-11 3-6 TEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Head-to-Head.
15 NEke 3-11 2-7  
16 LVke 2-12 2-8  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIx 12-2 3-0  
2 WAS 9-5 2-2  
3 DALk 6-8 3-1  
4 NYGke 2-12 0-5  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DETx 12-2 4-0 DET wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 MINx 12-2 3-1  
3 GB 10-4 1-3  
4 CHIke 4-10 0-4  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 8-6 2-2  
2 ATL 7-7 4-1  
3 NO 5-9 2-3  
4 CARke 3-11 1-3  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LAR 8-6 3-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 SEA 8-6 3-2  
3 ARI 7-7 2-2  
4 SF 6-8 1-4  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUFxy 11-3 3-0  
2 MIAk 6-8 3-2  
3 NYJke 4-10 1-3  
4 NEke 3-11 1-3  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PITx 10-4 3-1  
2 BAL 9-5 2-2  
3 CINk 6-8 1-3  
4 CLEke 3-11 2-2  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 HOUxy 9-5 4-1  
2 INDk 6-8 1-3  
3 JAXke 3-11 2-2 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4 TENke 3-11 1-2  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 13-1 5-0  
2 DENk 9-5 2-2  
3 LACk 8-6 2-2  
4 LVke 2-12 0-5  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 

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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 16

NFC

PHI clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) PHI win/tie

 

WAS clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) WAS win + ATL loss/tie + SEA loss/tie
OR 2) WAS win + ATL loss/tie + LAR loss/tie
OR 3) WAS tie + ATL loss + ARI loss/tie + SEA loss + LAR loss/tie
OR 4) WAS tie + ATL loss + ARI loss/tie + SEA tie + LAR loss

 

GB clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) GB win/tie
OR 2) SEA loss/tie + ATL loss/tie
OR 3) LAR loss/tie + ATL loss/tie

 

AFC

KC clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) KC win + BUF loss/tie
OR 2) KC tie + BUF loss

 

PIT clinches the AFC North division title with:
         1) PIT win

 

DEN clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) DEN win/tie
OR 2) CIN loss/tie + IND loss/tie + MIA loss/tie

 

LAC clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LAC win + IND loss/tie + MIA loss/tie
OR 2) LAC tie + IND loss + MIA loss + CIN loss/tie

 

BAL clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) BAL win/tie
OR 2) MIA loss/tie + IND loss/tie

 

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 16

NFC

NO is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) NO loss/tie
OR 2) TB win/tie
OR 3) ATL win

 

DAL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DAL loss/tie
OR 2) WAS win/tie

 

ARI is knocked out of NFC West title contention with:
         1) ARI loss + LAR win
OR 2) ARI loss + LAR tie + SEA win/tie
OR 3) ARI tie + LAR win + SEA win

 

ARI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) ARI loss + LAR win
OR 2) ARI loss + LAR tie + SEA win/tie
OR 3) ARI tie + LAR win + SEA win + WAS win/tie

 

SF is knocked out of NFC West title contention with:
         1) SF loss/tie
OR 2) LAR win/tie
OR 3) SEA win/tie
OR 4) ARI win

 

SF is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) SF loss/tie
OR 2) SEA win + LAR win
OR 3) SEA win + LAR tie + ARI win
OR 4) SEA win/tie + WAS win/tie
OR 5) LAR win/tie + WAS win/tie
OR 6) ARI win + WAS win/tie
OR 7) SEA win/tie + ATL win + TB win
OR 8) LAR win/tie + ATL win + TB win
OR 9) ARI win + ATL win + TB win

 

WAS is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) WAS loss/tie

 

GB is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:
         1) GB loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie
OR 3) MIN win/tie

 

GB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) GB loss/tie
OR 2) DET win/tie
OR 3) MIN win/tie
OR 4) PHI win

 

AFC

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIA loss + LAC win/tie
OR 2) MIA tie + LAC win

 

CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CIN loss
OR 2) CIN tie + LAC win/tie

 

IND is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) IND loss + LAC win/tie
OR 2) IND tie + LAC win

 

BAL is knocked out of AFC North title contention with:
         1) BAL loss

 

BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) BUF loss + KC win/tie
OR 2) BUF tie + KC win

 

PIT is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PIT loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 16

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DET 44% 14%     41% 1% <1%  
PHI 26% 74%     <1% <1% <1%  
TB     37% 40%   <1% 2% 21%
LAR     29% 21%     1% 49%
MIN 30% 12%     55% 3% <1%  
GB <1% <1%     4% 73% 23% <1%
WAS   <1%     <1% 23% 71% 6%
SEA     28% 16%   <1% 1% 55%
ATL     4% 20%   <1% 2% 75%
ARI     2% 4%     <1% 93%
SF     <1% <1%     <1% >99%
DAL             <1% >99%
NO       <1%       >99%
CHI               100%
CAR               100%
NYG               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
KC 96% 4% <1%          
BUF 4% 70% 24% 3%        
PIT <1% 21% 47% 14% 11% 6% <1%  
HOU   2% 18% 80%        
BAL   2% 11% 3% 41% 36% 7% <1%
DEN         41% 36% 23% 1%
LAC         8% 23% 62% 7%
IND         <1% <1% 3% 97%
MIA         <1% <1% 3% 97%
CIN             1% 99%
NYJ               100%
CLE               100%
JAX               100%
TEN               100%
NE               100%
LV               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 16

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI MIN(5) BUF(3)

Teams that control the 3 seed:
TB(4) PIT

Teams that control the 4 seed:
SEA(3) LAR HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
BAL

Teams that control the 6 seed:
GB LAC DEN

Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL ATL NO ARI SF MIA CIN IND

Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG CHI CAR NYJ NE CLE TEN JAX LV

 

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