I have had more people than I can count ask me about this, so I thought I’d break it down in detail.

Tiebreaker rundown

First, we have to consider that in winning out, MIN gives DET a 3rd loss since they play week 18. That means that only PHI & MIN will be at 15-2, so we don’t have to worry about anything but the 2-way tiebreaker. So let’s look through those tiebreakers:

1) Head-to-head. PHI & MIN didn’t play each other, so we move on.
2) Conference Record. If PHI & MIN win out, they would both be 10-2 in conference, so we move on.
3) Common games. PHI & MIN both will have played NYG, GB, ATL, LAR, and JAX. PHI lost to ATL in week 2 and MIN lost to LAR in week 8. The will have won the other 5 games against these opponents, so both will be 5-1 in commmon games, so we move on.
4) Strength of Victory (SoV). This is the combined win-loss-tie record of every team that the team in question has beaten. Since PHI & MIN will be at 15-2, that will involve 15 records for each team (though some of those will appear twice for divisional opponents that were swept).
5) Strength of Schedule (SoS). This is the combined win-loss-tie record of every team that the team in question has played. It will involve 17 records, 6 of which will be from the 3 division opponents.

Strength of Victory in Detail

So now, the million dollar question: who wins Strength of Victory?

Strength of Victory Tables

The easiest way to calculate this is to generate Strength of Victory tables, just looking at the opponents and current win totals.

PHI - 91 wins
Team     wins     Week 16     Week 17     Week 18  
GB 10.0 NO MIN CHI
NO 5.0 GB LV TB
CLE 3.0 CIN MIA BAL
NYG 2.0 ATL IND PHI
CIN 6.0 CLE DEN PIT
JAX 3.0 LV TEN IND
DAL 6.0 TB PHI WAS
WAS 9.0 PHI ATL DAL
LAR 8.0 NYJ ARI SEA
BAL 9.0 PIT HOU CLE
CAR 3.0 ARI TB ATL
PIT 10.0 BAL KC CIN
WAS 9.0 PHI ATL DAL
DAL 6.0 TB PHI WAS
NYG 2.0 ATL IND PHI

 

MIN - 95 wins
Team     wins     Week 16     Week 17     Week 18  
NYG 2.0 ATL IND PHI
SF 6.0 MIA DET ARI
HOU 9.0 KC BAL TEN
GB 10.0 NO MIN CHI
NYJ 4.0 LAR BUF MIA
IND 6.0 TEN NYG JAX
JAX 3.0 LV TEN IND
TEN 3.0 IND JAX HOU
CHI 4.0 DET SEA GB
ARI 7.0 CAR LAR SF
ATL 7.0 NYG WAS CAR
CHI 4.0 DET SEA GB
SEA 8.0 MIN CHI LAR
GB 10.0 NO MIN CHI
DET 12.0 CHI SF MIN

 

In the table above, some teams have a strike-through. That is because for this scenario, the team for that row must lose that game, guaranteeing they can’t improve their SoV with it. The teams in italics are teams that were both defeated by the same team and play against each other. For example, NYG & ATL in week 16. No matter what happens in that game, it will give exactly 1 win towards SoV for MIN. This is easily simplified by just making each of those games a tie just to account for that 1 win (0.5 each) without having to worry about the actual result. The tables below are simply the simplified version of those. A bold 0 means that result was required to be a loss for the team in that row, and every cell with a . is one of those ties for teams that play each other. After simplification, we look like this:

PHI - 98 wins
Team     wins     Week 16     Week 17     Week 18     Total  
GB 10.0 . 0 CHI 10.5
NO 5.0 . LV TB 5.5
CLE 3.0 . MIA . 4.0
NYG 2.0 ATL IND 0 2.0
CIN 6.0 . DEN . 7.0
JAX 3.0 LV TEN IND 3.0
DAL 6.0 TB 0 . 6.5
WAS 9.0 0 ATL . 9.5
LAR 8.0 NYJ ARI SEA 8.0
BAL 9.0 . HOU . 10.0
CAR 3.0 ARI TB ATL 3.0
PIT 10.0 . KC . 11.0
WAS 9.0 0 ATL . 9.5
DAL 6.0 TB 0 . 6.5
NYG 2.0 ATL IND 0 2.0

 

MIN - 107 wins
Team     wins     Week 16     Week 17     Week 18     Total  
NYG 2.0 . . 0 3.0
SF 6.0 MIA . . 7.0
HOU 9.0 KC BAL . 9.5
GB 10.0 NO 0 . 10.5
NYJ 4.0 LAR BUF MIA 4.0
IND 6.0 . . . 7.5
JAX 3.0 LV . . 4.0
TEN 3.0 . . . 4.5
CHI 4.0 . . . 5.5
ARI 7.0 CAR LAR . 7.5
ATL 7.0 . WAS CAR 7.5
CHI 4.0 DET SEA . 4.5
SEA 8.0 0 . LAR 8.5
GB 10.0 NO 0 . 10.5
DET 12.0 . . 0 13.0

 

So now what we do is pull out all of the games of interest and note how the results affect SoV:

  Week 16 Week 17 Week 18
1 game swing CHI(MIN+1)/DET CHI(MIN+1)/SEA NYJ(MIN+1)/MIA
  SF(MIN+1)/MIA NYJ(MIN+1)/BUF GB(PHI+1)/CHI
  HOU(MIN+1)/KC CAR(PHI+1)/TB NO(PHI+1)/TB
    CLE(PHI+1)/MIA JAX(PHI+1)/IND
    JAX(PHI+1)/TEN  
    CIN(PHI+1)/DEN  
    PIT(PHI+1)/KC  
    NO(PHI+1)/LV  
       
2 game swing GB(MIN+2)/NO NYG(PHI+2)/IND ATL(MIN+1)/CAR(PHI+1)
  NYG(PHI+2)/ATL   ARI(MIN+1)/LAR(PHI+1)     SEA(MIN+1)/LAR(PHI+1)  
  DAL(PHI+2)/TB BAL(PHI+1)/HOU(MIN+1)  
    CAR(PHI+1)/ARI(MIN+1)      
  LAR(PHI+1)/NYJ(MIN+1)    
       
3 game swing   WAS(PHI+2)/ATL(MIN+1)  
       
irrelevant JAX(PHI+1,MIN+1)/LV    

 

 

Reframing the Games of Interest

With MIN at 107 wins & PHI at 98 wins per the tables above, we need to find permutations that will get PHI past MIN in wins (we’ll discuss a tie in SoV in a bit). It can be really confusing to try to do this in this format, as you start to say “MIN gets 1 win + PHI gets 11+ wins, giving PHI SoV”, “MIN gets 2 wins + PHI gets 12+ wins”, etc. However, we can reframe this table. Since none of these results matter for the table outside of SoV, we have freedom to do what we want. (In SoV scenarios with restrictions unlike this one, there may be other considerations nullifying or constraining this reframe). What we do is say “Assume every game goes PHI’s way, what happens?”

So we allow all these teams to win:
Week 16: NYG, DAL, CAR, LAR
Week 17: WAS, CAR, LAR, CLE, BAL, NYG, JAX, CIN, PIT, NO
Week 18: GB, CAR, NO, LAR, JAX

If that happens, giving us all 23 PHI wins from the table above, we end up with a grand total of 121 wins for PHI, while keeping MIN at 107 wins (JAX/LV in week 16 is irrelevant, so we disregard it here. If JAX wins, it just becomes 122-108). So in this situation, MIN has a deficit of 14 games. What we can do is reframe our games of interest to indicate how much MIN can cut into the deficit rather than a pure wins number. So for example, CHI/DET week 16 shows MIN+1 for CHI, so that would cut into the deficit by 1 by givin MIN a win, so that would stay MIN+1. On the other hand TB/CAR week 17 shows PHI+1 for CAR, and to get to the 121 wins, we assumed CAR beat TB. If TB beats CAR, that lowers that best-case PHI win total by 1, so MIN’s deficit would decrease by 1 by lowering PHI’s max total. That means for deficit-cutting purposes, CAR(PHI+1)/TB is reframed as CAR/TB(MIN+1), as it cuts MIN’s deficit by 1. Using this reframing for every game, we end up with this table:

  Week 16 Week 17 Week 18
1 game swing CHI(MIN+1)/DET CHI(MIN+1)/SEA NYJ(MIN+1)/MIA
  SF(MIN+1)/MIA NYJ(MIN+1)/BUF CHI(MIN+1)/GB
  HOU(MIN+1)/KC TB(MIN+1)/CAR TB(MIN+1)/NO
    MIA(MIN+1)/CLE IND(MIN+1)/JAX
    TEN(MIN+1)/JAX  
    DEN(MIN+1)/CIN  
    KC(MIN+1)/PIT  
    LV(MIN+1)/NO  
       
2 game swing GB(MIN+2)/NO IND(MIN+2)/NYG ATL(MIN+2)/CAR
  ATL(MIN+2)/NYG   ARI(MIN+2)/LAR     SEA(MIN+2)/LAR  
  TB(MIN+2)/DAL HOU(MIN+2)/BAL  
    ARI(MIN+2)/CAR      
  NYJ(MIN+2)/LAR    
       
3 game swing   ATL(MIN+3)/WAS  

 

So now with this, we simply need to get more than 14 wins from the table above for MIN to clinch SoV. If there are fewer than 14 wins in favor of MIN from the table above, PHI would clinch SoV.

 

Strength of Schedule

But what if exactly 14 wins go in favor of MIN and against PHI? Then we fall to Strength of Schedule.

Strength of Schedule Tables

First, let’s check our (already reduced) SoS tables and get our Games of Interest table.

PHI - 119 wins
Team     wins     Week 16     Week 17     Week 18     Total  
GB 10.0 . 0 CHI 10.5
ATL 7.0 . . . 8.5
NO 5.0 . LV . 6.0
TB 8.0 . . . 9.5
CLE 3.0 . MIA . 4.0
NYG 2.0 . IND 0 2.5
CIN 6.0 . DEN . 7.0
JAX 3.0 LV TEN IND 3.0
DAL 6.0 . 0 . 7.0
WAS 9.0 0 . . 10.0
LAR 8.0 NYJ ARI SEA 8.0
BAL 9.0 . HOU . 10.0
CAR 3.0 ARI . . 4.0
PIT 10.0 . KC . 11.0
WAS 9.0 0 ATL . 9.5
DAL 6.0 TB 0 . 6.5
NYG 2.0 ATL IND 0 2.0

 

MIN - 131 wins
Team     wins     Week 16     Week 17     Week 18     Total  
NYG 2.0 . . 0 3.0
SF 6.0 MIA . . 7.0
HOU 9.0 KC BAL . 9.5
GB 10.0 NO 0 . 10.5
NYJ 4.0 . BUF MIA 4.5
DET 12.0 . . 0 13.0
LAR 8.0 . . . 9.5
IND 6.0 . . . 7.5
JAX 3.0 LV . . 4.0
TEN 3.0 . . . 4.5
CHI 4.0 . . . 5.5
ARI 7.0 CAR . . 8.0
ATL 7.0 . WAS CAR 7.5
CHI 4.0 . SEA . 5.0
SEA 8.0 0 . . 9.0
GB 10.0 NO 0 . 10.5
DET 12.0 . SF 0 12.5

 

Games of Interest Table:

  Week 16 Week 17 Week 18
1 game swing NYG(PHI+1)/ATL CHI(MIN+1)/SEA   LAR(PHI+1)/SEA  
  DAL(PHI+1)/TB DET(MIN+1)/SF JAX(PHI+1)/IND
  LAR(PHI+1)/NYJ NYJ(MIN+1)/BUF GB(PHI+1)/CHI
  SF(MIN+1)/MIA LAR(PHI+1)/ARI ATL(MIN+1)/CAR
  HOU(MIN+1)/KC CLE(PHI+1)/MIA NYJ(MIN+1)/MIA
    JAX(PHI+1)/TEN  
    CIN(PHI+1)/DEN  
    PIT(PHI+1)/KC  
    NO(PHI+1)/LV  
       
2 game swing GB(MIN+2)/NO NYG(PHI+2)/IND  
    CAR(PHI+1)/ARI(MIN+1)     WAS(PHI+1)/ATL(MIN+1)    
    BAL(PHI+1)/HOU(MIN+1)  
       
irrelevant JAX(PHI+1,MIN+1)/LV    

 

Using the same reframing on SoS, we end up with PHI at 136 wins, 5 more than MIN. That means that if MIN gets more than 5 favorable results, MIN clinches Strength of Schedule. Is it possible for MIN to get to 14 SoV wins while getting 5 or fewer favorable results in SoS? Let’s continue by doing the reframing of the Games of Interest chart above to put everything in the frame for MIN:

  Week 16 Week 17 Week 18
1 game swing ATL(MIN+1)/NYG CHI(MIN+1)/SEA SEA(MIN+1)/LAR
  TB(MIN+1)/DAL DET(MIN+1)/SF IND(MIN+1)/JAX
  NYJ(MIN+1)/LAR NYJ(MIN+1)/BUF CHI(MIN+1)/GB
  SF(MIN+1)/MIA ARI(MIN+1)/LAR   ATL(MIN+1)/CAR  
  HOU(MIN+1)/KC MIA(MIN+1)/CLE NYJ(MIN+1)/MIA
    TEN(MIN+1)/JAX  
    DEN(MIN+1)/CIN  
    KC(MIN+1)/PIT  
    LV(MIN+1)/NO  
       
2 game swing GB(MIN+2)/NO IND(MIN+2)/NYG  
    ARI(MIN+2)/CAR     ATL(MIN+2)/WAS    
    HOU(MIN+2)/BAL  

 

 

Synthesizing Strength of Victory and Strength of Schedule

So now we have to see if there’s a way that MIN can get exactly 14 wins in SoV while gaining no more than 5 in SoS. This means we need to find discrepancies. Everything in bold above behaves the same towards SoV as SoS. Everything else needs special consideration, but fortunately, in this scenario it’s pretty simple. Sometimes SoS works counter to SoV (i.e., a win in SoV is a loss in SoS), which really complicates matters, but fortunately, that doesn’t happen here. If we cross-reference this table with the SoV reframed table, we get the following deviations:

Only appears in SoV:
Week 16 CHI(MIN+1)/DET
Week 17 TB(MIN+1)/CAR
Week 18 TB(MIN+1)/NO

Only appears in SoS:
Week 17 DET(MIN+1)/SF

Discrepancy in SoV/SoS:
Week SoV impact SoS impact difference
Week 16   ATL(MIN+2)/NYG ATL(MIN+1)/NYG 1 less SoS win than SoV win
Week 16 TB(MIN+2)/DAL TB(MIN+1)/DAL 1 less SoS win than SoV win
Week 16 NYJ(MIN+2)/LAR NYJ(MIN+1)/LAR 1 less SoS win than SoV win
Week 17   ARI(MIN+2)/LAR     ARI(MIN+1)/LAR     1 less SoS win than SoV win  
Week 17 ATL(MIN+3)/WAS ATL(MIN+2)/WAS 1 less SoS win than SoV win
Week 18 SEA(MIN+2)/LAR SEA(MIN+1)/LAR 1 less SoS win than SoV win
Week 18 ATL(MIN+2)/CAR ATL(MIN+1)/CAR 1 less SoS win than SoV win

 

From the games that only show up in SoV, we can give them to MIN to get the deficit to 11 wins. The MIN+2 -> MIN+1 matchups are more optimal than the MIN+3 -> MIN+2 for the sake of keeping MIN’s SoS down. So our optimal way to get to 11 wins is 5.5 wins from the MIN+2 -> MIN+1 results. And that gives us 5.5 wins towards SoS. This means by 0.5 games, MIN cannot lose the SoS tiebreaker if the SoV tiebreaker is tied.

So at this point, we have to get 11 wins from the left column while getting 5 or fewer wins from the right column Every MIN+2 -> MIN+1 is more optimal than MIN+3 -> MIN+2, so let’s get 5.5 of them to get to 11. That means that we get 5.5 wins in SoS, and means that by only 0.5 games, MIN is guaranteed the SoS tiebreaker.

 

Summary: Who gets the 1 seed?

With all of that said, we have arrived at our concrete answer. Out of the 38 possible wins from the following 26 games, PHI would get the 1 seed if fewer than 14 wins occur, and MIN would get the 1 seed if 14 or more wins occur (x2 means the game counts for 2 wins towards the deficit, and x3 means the game counts for 3 wins towards the deficit):

Week 16: CHI, SF, HOU, GBx2, ATLx2, TBx2, ARIx2, NYJx2
Week 17: CHI, NYJ, TB, MIA, TEN, DEN, KC, LV, INDx2, ARIx2, HOUx2, ATLx3
Week 18: NYJ, CHI, TB, IND, ATLx2, SEAx2