Introduction

With only 2 weeks to go, the playoff picture is becoming increasingly clear. And given the simplicity of this season, we can pretty easily delineate every single possibility each non-eliminated team has to make the playoffs. Unlike previous seasons, the scenarios here are meant to be exhaustive, as they can be easily delineated.

Also, please note that there was a lot of manual input to make this post, and I am confident there will be issues on the initial post. I will correct these issues as they are identified.

Playoff Picture Entering Week 17

LAR - 6 options

Option 1:

  • LAR wins or ties week 18

Option 2:

  • LAR wins week 17
  • SEA loses or ties week 17

Option 3:

  • LAR ties week 17
  • SEA loses week 17

Option 4:

  • LAR wins week 17
  • LAR clinches Strength of Victory over SEA

Option 5:

  • LAR wins week 17
  • LAR clinches a tie in Strength of Victory over SEA
  • LAR clinches Strength of Schedule over SEA

Option 6:

  • LAR wins week 17
  • LAR clinches a tie in Strength of Victory over SEA
  • LAR clinches a tie in Strength of Schedule over SEA
  • LAR clinches a scoring tiebreaker over SEA

Notes:
LAR must win the NFC West to make the playoffs. Options 1-3 clinch on pure record. Option 4-6 only occurs when both LAR & SEA win week 17 and SEA beats LAR week 18. In that case, there is a fun array of Strength of Victory/Strength of Schedule results that could result in either team clinching or both teams tying all the way down to Strength of Schedule where scoring tiebreakers open up. The SoV/SoS possibilities will not be listed here, but LAR has a massive edge, so it is very unlikely for SEA to be able to clinch SoV.

 

ATL - 3 non-tie options

Option 1:

  • ATL wins out

Option 2:

  • ATL wins a game
  • TB loses a game

Option 3:

  • TB loses out

Notes:
This is about as straightforward as it gets. ATL can only make the playoffs by winning the division and they have head-to-head over TB, so anything that results in a equal record as TB (or higher) gives ATL the division. As such, it seemed like a waste to list out all the possible tie combinations, so this isn’t technically exhaustive, but it is exhaustive for non-tie possibilities.

 

WAS - 3 options

Option 1:

  • WAS wins or ties a game

Option 2:

  • TB loses or ties a game

Option 3:

  • ATL loses or ties week 18

Notes:
WAS has conference record over SEA and LAR, but if WAS loses out and ATL & TB both finish 10-7, then TB would finish ahead of WAS on either conference record or head-to-head (depending upon if there’s a 3rd team in the tiebreaker). Anything that doesn’t result in WAS, ATL, and TB all ending up at 10-7 clinches for WAS. Note that the reason week 18 is specified for ATL is because WAS plays ATL in week 17.

 

TB - 3 non-tie options

Option 1:

  • TB wins out
  • ATL loses a game

Option 2:

  • TB wins a game
  • ATL loses out

Option 3:

  • TB wins out
  • WAS loses out

Notes:
Options 1 & 2 are the reverse of ATL. TB can only win the NFC South title if they have a better record than ATL. With such a simple logic, ties would only muck it up, so they are left out of the list. Options 3 is for TB winning a wildcard berth. They have the conference record tiebreaker over WAS, so with WAS losing out, TB takes the 7 seed.

 

SEA - 5 options

Option 1:

  • SEA wins week 18
  • LAR loses week 17

Option 2:

  • SEA wins week 18
  • SEA wins or ties week 17
  • LAR ties week 17

Option 3:

  • SEA wins out
  • SEA clinches Strength of Victory over LAR

Option 4:

  • SEA wins out
  • SEA clinches a tie in Strength of Victory over LAR
  • SEA clinches Strength of Schedule over LAR

Option 5:

  • SEA wins out
  • SEA clinches a tie in Strength of Victory over LAR
  • SEA clinches a tie in Strength of Schedule over LAR
  • SEA clinches a scoring tiebreaker over LAR

Notes:
SEA must win the NFC West to make the playoffs. For options 1 & 2, SEA would win the tiebreaker against LAR on division record. Options 3-5 only occurs when both LAR & SEA win week 17 and SEA beats LAR week 18. In that case, there is a fun array of Strength of Victory/Strength of Schedule results that could result in either team clinching or both teams tying all the way down to Strength of Schedule where scoring tiebreakers open up. The SoV/SoS possibilities will not be listed here, but LAR has a massive edge, so it is very unlikely for SEA to be able to clinch SoV.

 

LAC - 4 options

Option 1:

  • LAC wins or ties a game

Option 2:

  • IND loses or ties a game
  • MIA loses or ties a game

Option 3:

  • IND loses or ties a game
  • DEN loses out

Option 4:

  • MIA loses or ties a game
  • DEN loses out

Notes:
LAC has the head-to-head sweep of DEN, but loses to MIA & IND on conference record. They have head-to-head on CIN and there is no way for CIN to use a 3rd team to bypass that, so CIN is immaterial. Options 1 & 2 clinch on pure record. Options 3 & 4 let MIA or IND get the 6 seed and get LAC the 7 seed over DEN on that head-to-head.

DEN - 3 options

Option 1:

  • DEN wins or ties a game

Option 2:

  • MIA loses or ties a game
  • IND loses or ties a game
  • CIN loses or ties week 18

Option 3:

  • MIA loses or ties a game
  • LAC wins or ties a game
  • CIN loses or ties week 18

Notes:
Options 1&2 are a pure record clinch. If DEN loses out (which is an assumption for options 2 & 3), then they are guaranteed to lose any tiebreaker to CIN, MIA, and LAC. If only IND is tied with DEN, then DEN advances on head-to-head, but if we get a 3-way tie with IND, DEN, and any of the other 3, DEN ends up out (DEN/IND/LAC goes to IND over LAC on conference record, DEN/MIA/IND goes to IND on head-to-head over MIA after DEN drops on conference record, and DEN/CIN/IND goes to IND on conference record). Thus, with option 3, we are allowing IND to catch DEN, but making LAC win a game as well as CIN & MIA losing so that no 3rd team can be involved in the tiebreaker, letting DEN advance on head-to-head over IND.

 

IND - 3 options

Option 1:

  • IND wins out
  • LAC loses out

Option 2:

  • IND wins out
  • DEN loses out
  • MIA wins out

Option 3:

  • IND wins out
  • DEN loses out
  • CIN wins out

Notes:
IND is guaranteed tiebreakers over LAC (conference record), CIN (conference record), and MIA (head-to-head with equal conference record), so with option 1, all 3 of those will finish behind IND. Options 2 & 3 use DEN instead of IND, but IND has to bypass DEN’s head-to-head victory. IND/DEN/MIA in option 2 has no head-to-head sweep, and DEN drops on conference record, then IND advances on head-to-head over MIA. IND/DEN/CIN in option 3 goes to IND on conference record. If IND wins out, DEN loses out, but CIN & MIA both lose a game and LAC wins a game, IND will be out on the head-to-head loss to DEN.

 

MIA - 3 options

Option 1:

  • MIA wins out
  • DEN loses out
  • LAC loses out

Option 2:

  • MIA wins out
  • LAC loses out
  • IND loses or ties a game

Option 3:

  • MIA wins out
  • DEN loses out
  • IND loses or ties a game

Notes:
It’s very simple for MIA. They have conference record over DEN, LAC, and CIN. They lose head-to-head to IND, and none of the other 3 can be used to bypass that. Thus, CIN doesn’t matter, and IND must lose a game unless both DEN & LAC lose out.

 

CIN - 1 option

Only Option:

  • CIN wins out
  • DEN loses week 18
  • MIA loses or ties a game
  • IND loses or ties a game

Notes:
It’s very simple for CIN. The only team they can win a tiebreaker against is DEN. They lose conference record to MIA & IND, head-to-head to LAC, and win head-to-head on DEN (since a DEN loss to CIN week 17 is part of this option). Thus, CIN simply cannot pass LAC, and must have DEN lose out and have MIA & IND lose a game.

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