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Standings Entering Week 17

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DETx 13-2 9-1 DET wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 PHIx 12-3 7-3  
3 LAR 9-6 5-5  
4 ATL 8-7 7-3 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (2-0).
5 MINx 13-2 8-2  
6 GBkx 11-4 6-4  
7 WAS 10-5 7-3  
8 TB 8-7 6-4 TB wins the tiebreak over SEA on Conference Record (6-4 vs 4-6).
9 SEA 8-7 4-6  
10 DALke 7-8 5-5 DAL wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (5-5 vs 3-7).
11 ARIke 7-8 3-7  
12 SFke 6-9 4-6  
13 NOke 5-10 4-7  
14 CHIke 4-11 2-8 CHI wins the tiebreak over CAR on Head-to-Head.
15 CARke 4-11 3-7  
16 NYGke 2-13 1-10  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 14-1 9-1  
2 BUFxy 12-3 8-2  
3 PITx 10-5 7-3 PIT wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (7-3 vs 6-4).
4 HOUxy 9-6 7-3  
5 BALx 10-5 6-4  
6 LACk 9-6 6-4 LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (2-0).
7 DENk 9-6 5-5  
8 INDk 7-8 6-5 IND wins the tiebreak over MIA/CIN on Conference Record (6-5 vs 5-5/4-6).
9 MIAk 7-8 5-5 MIA wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (5-5 vs 4-6).
10 CINk 7-8 4-6  
11 NYJke 4-11 4-6  
12 CLEke 3-12 3-7 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). LV/NE drops out of the tiebreak with CLE/JAX on Conference Record (3-8/2-8 vs 3-7). CLE wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head.
13 JAXke 3-12 3-7 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). JAX wins the tiebreak over LV/NE on Conference Record (3-7 vs 3-8/2-8).
14 TENke 3-12 3-7 TEN wins the tiebreak over LV/NE on Conference Record (3-7 vs 3-8/2-8).
15 LVke 3-12 3-8 LV wins the tiebreak over NE on Conference Record (3-8 vs 2-8).
16 NEke 3-12 2-8  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIx 12-3 3-1  
2 WAS 10-5 3-2  
3 DALke 7-8 3-1  
4 NYGke 2-13 0-5  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DETx 13-2 5-0 DET wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 MINx 13-2 3-1  
3 GBk 11-4 1-3  
4 CHIke 4-11 0-5  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 ATL 8-7 4-1 ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (2-0).
2 TB 8-7 2-2  
3 NOke 5-10 2-3  
4 CARke 4-11 1-3  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LAR 9-6 3-1  
2 SEA 8-7 3-2  
3 ARIke 7-8 2-2  
4 SFke 6-9 1-4  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BUFxy 12-3 4-0  
2 MIAk 7-8 3-2  
3 NYJke 4-11 1-3  
4 NEke 3-12 1-4  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PITx 10-5 3-2 PIT wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (7-3 vs 6-4).
2 BALx 10-5 3-2  
3 CINk 7-8 2-3  
4 CLEke 3-12 2-3  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 HOUxy 9-6 4-1  
2 INDk 7-8 2-3  
3 JAXke 3-12 2-2 JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0).
4 TENke 3-12 1-3  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 KCxy 14-1 5-0  
2 LACk 9-6 3-2 LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (2-0).
3 DENk 9-6 2-3  
4 LVke 3-12 0-5  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.

 

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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFC

DET clinches the NFC North title, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage with:
         1) DET win + MIN loss

 

PHI clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) PHI win/tie
OR 2) WAS loss/tie

 

LAR clinches the NFC West division title with:
         1) LAR win + SEA loss/tie
OR 2) LAR win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, CLE)
OR 3) LAR tie + SEA loss

The italicized portion in scenario 2 is for LAR clinching Strength of Victory over SEA

 

ATL clinches the NFC South division title with:
         1) ATL win + TB loss

 

WAS clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) WAS win/tie
OR 2) TB loss/tie

 

AFC

KC clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) KC win/tie
OR 2) BUF loss/tie

 

LAC clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LAC win/tie
OR 2) IND loss/tie + MIA loss/tie

 

DEN clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) DEN win/tie

 

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFC

TB is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) TB loss + ATL win

 

SEA is eliminated from NFC West title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) SEA loss + LAR win/tie
OR 2) SEA tie + LAR win
OR 3) LAR win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, CLE)

The italicized portion in scenario 3 is for LAR clinching Strength of Victory over SEA

 

WAS is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) WAS loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win/tie

 

MIN is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:
         1) MIN loss + DET win

 

PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PHI loss/tie
OR 2) DET win
OR 3) DET tie + MIN tie
OR 4) MIN win

 

MIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) MIN loss + DET win

 

AFC

IND is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) IND loss/tie
OR 2) LAC win/tie + DEN win/tie

 

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIA loss/tie
OR 2) LAC win/tie + DEN win/tie

 

CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) CIN loss/tie

 

BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) BUF loss/tie
OR 2) KC win/tie

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DET 59% <1%     41%      
PHI 2% 97%       1% <1%  
LAR     66% 15%       19%
ATL     10% 51%       38%
MIN 39% 1%     56% 4%    
GB         4% 78% 18%  
WAS   1%       18% 81% <1%
TB     11% 27%     <1% 61%
SEA     13% 6%       81%
DAL               100%
ARI               100%
SF               100%
NO               100%
CHI               100%
CAR               100%
NYG               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
KC 99% 1%            
BUF 1% 96% 2%          
PIT   1% 47% 7% 35% 8% 1%  
HOU     12% 88%        
BAL   1% 39% 4% 46% 9% 1%  
LAC         10% 52% 36% 2%
DEN         9% 32% 55% 5%
IND           <1% 2% 98%
MIA           <1% 2% 98%
CIN             3% 97%
NYJ               100%
CLE               100%
JAX               100%
TEN               100%
LV               100%
NE               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 17

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET MIN(2) KC

Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI BUF

Teams that control the 3 seed:
LAR(4) PIT

Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL(E) HOU

Teams that control the 5 seed:
BAL

Teams that control the 6 seed:
GB LAC

Teams that control the 7 seed:
WAS DEN(6)

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
TB(3) SEA(4) MIA CIN IND

Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
DAL NYG CHI NO CAR ARI SF
NYJ NE CLE TEN JAX LV

 

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