- Click here to see the playoff picture if GB wins on Week 16 MNF
- Standings Entering Week 17
- Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17
- Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17
- Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17
- Seed Control Entering Week 17
- Contact Us
Click here to see the playoff picture if GB wins on Week 16 MNF
Standings Entering Week 17
NFC | Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
1 | DETx | 13-2 | 9-1 | DET wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
2 | PHIx | 12-3 | 7-3 | |
3 | LAR | 9-6 | 5-5 | |
4 | ATL | 8-7 | 7-3 | ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
5 | MINx | 13-2 | 8-2 | |
6 | WAS | 10-5 | 7-3 | WAS wins the tiebreak over GB on Conference Record (7-3 vs 5-5). |
7 | GBk | 10-5 | 5-5 | |
8 | TB | 8-7 | 6-4 | TB wins the tiebreak over SEA on Conference Record (6-4 vs 4-6). |
9 | SEA | 8-7 | 4-6 | |
10 | DALke | 7-8 | 5-5 | DAL wins the tiebreak over ARI on Conference Record (5-5 vs 3-7). |
11 | ARIke | 7-8 | 3-7 | |
12 | NOke | 6-9 | 5-6 | NO wins the tiebreak over SF on Conference Record (5-6 vs 4-6). |
13 | SFke | 6-9 | 4-6 | |
14 | CHIke | 4-11 | 2-8 | CHI wins the tiebreak over CAR on Head-to-Head. |
15 | CARke | 4-11 | 3-7 | |
16 | NYGke | 2-13 | 1-10 | |
AFC | Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
1 | KCxy | 14-1 | 9-1 | |
2 | BUFxy | 12-3 | 8-2 | |
3 | PITx | 10-5 | 7-3 | PIT wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (7-3 vs 6-4). |
4 | HOUxy | 9-6 | 7-3 | |
5 | BALx | 10-5 | 6-4 | |
6 | LACk | 9-6 | 6-4 | LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
7 | DENk | 9-6 | 5-5 | |
8 | INDk | 7-8 | 6-5 | IND wins the tiebreak over MIA/CIN on Conference Record (6-5 vs 5-5/4-6). |
9 | MIAk | 7-8 | 5-5 | MIA wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (5-5 vs 4-6). |
10 | CINk | 7-8 | 4-6 | |
11 | NYJke | 4-11 | 4-6 | |
12 | CLEke | 3-12 | 3-7 | JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). LV/NE drops out of the tiebreak with CLE/JAX on Conference Record (3-8/2-8 vs 3-7). CLE wins the tiebreak over JAX on Head-to-Head. |
13 | JAXke | 3-12 | 3-7 | JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). JAX wins the tiebreak over LV/NE on Conference Record (3-7 vs 3-8/2-8). |
14 | TENke | 3-12 | 3-7 | TEN wins the tiebreak over LV/NE on Conference Record (3-7 vs 3-8/2-8). |
15 | LVke | 3-12 | 3-8 | LV wins the tiebreak over NE on Conference Record (3-8 vs 2-8). |
16 | NEke | 3-12 | 2-8 |
NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | PHIx | 12-3 | 3-1 | |
2 | WAS | 10-5 | 3-2 | |
3 | DALke | 7-8 | 3-1 | |
4 | NYGke | 2-13 | 0-5 | |
NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | DETx | 13-2 | 5-0 | DET wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
2 | MINx | 13-2 | 3-1 | |
3 | GBk | 10-5 | 1-3 | |
4 | CHIke | 4-11 | 0-5 | |
NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | ATL | 8-7 | 4-1 | ATL wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
2 | TB | 8-7 | 2-2 | |
3 | NOke | 6-9 | 2-3 | |
4 | CARke | 4-11 | 1-3 | |
NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | LAR | 9-6 | 3-1 | |
2 | SEA | 8-7 | 3-2 | |
3 | ARIke | 7-8 | 2-2 | |
4 | SFke | 6-9 | 1-4 | |
AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | BUFxy | 12-3 | 4-0 | |
2 | MIAk | 7-8 | 3-2 | |
3 | NYJke | 4-11 | 1-3 | |
4 | NEke | 3-12 | 1-4 | |
AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | PITx | 10-5 | 3-2 | PIT wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (7-3 vs 6-4). |
2 | BALx | 10-5 | 3-2 | |
3 | CINk | 7-8 | 2-3 | |
4 | CLEke | 3-12 | 2-3 | |
AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | HOUxy | 9-6 | 4-1 | |
2 | INDk | 7-8 | 2-3 | |
3 | JAXke | 3-12 | 2-2 | JAX wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
4 | TENke | 3-12 | 1-3 | |
AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
1 | KCxy | 14-1 | 5-0 | |
2 | LACk | 9-6 | 3-2 | LAC wins the tiebreak over DEN on Head-to-Head (2-0). |
3 | DENk | 9-6 | 2-3 | |
4 | LVke | 3-12 | 0-5 |
x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
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Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17
NFC
PHI clinches the NFC East division title with: |
1) | PHI win/tie | |
OR | 2) | WAS loss/tie |
DET clinches the NFC North title, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage with: |
1) | DET win + MIN loss |
LAR clinches the NFC West division title with: |
1) | LAR win + SEA loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | LAR win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, CLE) |
OR | 3) | LAR win + WAS win + CIN win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, IND) |
OR | 4) | LAR win + 1.5 combined wins from (WAS, CIN) + 0.5 combined wins from (MIN, SF, BUF, CLE) + PHI win + IND win |
OR | 5) | LAR tie + SEA loss |
The italicized portion in scenario 2 is for LAR clinching Strength of Victory over SEA
The italicized portion in scenarios 3 & 4 is for LAR clinching a tie Strength of Victory and clinching Strength of Schedule over SEA
ATL clinches the NFC South division title with: |
1) | ATL win + TB loss |
GB clinches a playoff berth with: |
1) | GB win/tie | |
OR | 2) | ATL loss/tie |
OR | 3) | TB loss/tie |
WAS clinches a playoff berth with: |
1) | WAS win/tie | |
OR | 2) | TB loss/tie |
AFC
KC clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with: |
1) | KC win/tie | |
OR | 2) | BUF loss/tie |
LAC clinches a playoff berth with: |
1) | LAC win/tie | |
OR | 2) | IND loss/tie + MIA loss/tie |
DEN clinches a playoff berth with: |
1) | DEN win/tie |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17
NFC
TB is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with: |
1) | TB loss + ATL win |
SEA is eliminated from NFC West title contention AND playoff contention with: |
1) | SEA loss + LAR win/tie | |
OR | 2) | SEA tie + LAR win |
OR | 3) | LAR win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, CLE) |
OR | 4) | LAR win + WAS win + CIN win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, IND) |
OR | 5) | LAR win + 1.5 combined wins from (WAS, CIN) + 0.5 combined wins from (MIN, SF, BUF, CLE) + PHI win + IND win |
The italicized portion in scenario 3 is for LAR clinching Strength of Victory over SEA
The italicized portion in scenarios 4 & 5 is for LAR clinching a tie Strength of Victory and clinching Strength of Schedule over SEA
WAS is knocked out of NFC East title contention with: |
1) | WAS loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | PHI win/tie |
MIN is knocked out of NFC North title contention with: |
1) | MIN loss + DET win |
PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | PHI loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | DET win |
OR | 3) | DET tie + MIN tie |
OR | 4) | MIN win |
MIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | MIN loss + DET win |
AFC
IND is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
1) | IND loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | LAC win/tie + DEN win/tie |
MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
1) | MIA loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | LAC win/tie + DEN win/tie |
CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
1) | CIN loss/tie |
BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
1) | BUF loss/tie | |
OR | 2) | KC win/tie |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17
Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | 59% | <1% | 41% | |||||
PHI | 2% | 97% | 1% | |||||
LAR | 66% | 15% | 19% | |||||
ATL | 10% | 51% | 38% | |||||
MIN | 40% | 1% | 59% | |||||
WAS | 1% | 60% | 38% | <1% | ||||
GB | 38% | 62% | <1% | |||||
TB | 11% | 27% | <1% | <1% | 61% | |||
SEA | 13% | 6% | 81% | |||||
DAL | 100% | |||||||
ARI | 100% | |||||||
NO | 100% | |||||||
SF | 100% | |||||||
CHI | 100% | |||||||
CAR | 100% | |||||||
NYG | 100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC | 99% | 1% | ||||||
BUF | 1% | 96% | 2% | |||||
PIT | 1% | 47% | 7% | 35% | 8% | 1% | ||
HOU | 12% | 88% | ||||||
BAL | 1% | 39% | 4% | 46% | 9% | 1% | ||
LAC | 10% | 52% | 36% | 2% | ||||
DEN | 9% | 32% | 55% | 5% | ||||
IND | <1% | 2% | 98% | |||||
MIA | <1% | 2% | 98% | |||||
CIN | 3% | 97% | ||||||
NYJ | 100% | |||||||
CLE | 100% | |||||||
JAX | 100% | |||||||
TEN | 100% | |||||||
LV | 100% | |||||||
NE | 100% |
Seed Control Entering Week 17
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
DET
MIN(2)
KC
Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI
BUF
Teams that control the 3 seed:
LAR(4)
PIT
Teams that control the 4 seed:
ATL(E)
HOU
Teams that control the 5 seed:
BAL
Teams that control the 6 seed:
WAS(7)
LAC
Teams that control the 7 seed:
GB(6)
DEN(6)
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
TB(3)
SEA(4)
MIA
CIN
IND
Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
DAL
NYG
CHI
NO
CAR
ARI
SF
NYJ
NE
CLE
TEN
JAX
LV
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