Standings Entering Week 10

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 6-2 5-1 SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1). PHI wins the tiebreak over TB/SEA on Conference Record (5-1 vs 4-2/3-2).
2 TB 6-2 4-2 SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1). TB wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head.
3 SEA 6-2 3-2 SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1).
4 GB 5-2-1 3-1-1  
5 LAR 6-2 1-2  
6 SF 6-3 6-1  
7 DET 5-3 2-2 DET wins the tiebreak over CHI on Head-to-Head (1-0).
8 CHI 5-3 3-2  
9 CAR 5-4 3-1  
10 MIN 4-4 2-2  
11 DAL 3-5-1 2-4-1  
12 ARI 3-5 3-3 ARI wins the tiebreak over ATL on Conference Record (3-3 vs 2-3).
13 ATL 3-5 2-3  
14 WAS 3-6 1-5  
15 NYG 2-7 1-5  
16 NO 1-8 1-6  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 IND 7-2 6-1 IND wins the tiebreak over NE/DEN on Conference Record (6-1 vs 4-2/4-2).
2 NE 7-2 4-2 NE wins the tiebreak over DEN on Strength of Victory (20-40 vs 19-40-1).
3 DEN 7-2 4-2  
4 PIT 5-3 4-1  
5 BUF 6-2 4-1  
6 LAC 6-3 5-1  
7 JAX 5-3 3-1  
8 KC 5-4 2-3  
9 HOU 3-5 2-2 HOU wins the tiebreak over BAL on Head-to-Head.
10 BAL 3-5 2-3  
11 CIN 3-6 3-2  
12 LV 2-6 2-4 LV wins the tiebreak over CLE on Conference Record (2-4 vs 1-4).
13 CLE 2-6 1-4  
14 MIA 2-7 1-6  
15 NYJ 1-7 1-4  
16 TEN 1-8 0-7  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 6-2 2-1  
2 DAL 3-5-1 2-1  
3 WAS 3-6 1-1  
4 NYG 2-7 1-3  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 GB 5-2-1 1-0  
2 DET 5-3 1-2 DET wins the tiebreak over CHI on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 CHI 5-3 0-2  
4 MIN 4-4 2-0  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 6-2 2-0  
2 CAR 5-4 1-0  
3 ATL 3-5 0-2  
4 NO 1-8 0-1  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SEA 6-2 1-1 SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1).
2 LAR 6-2 0-1  
3 SF 6-3 3-0  
4 ARI 3-5 0-2  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 7-2 2-0  
2 BUF 6-2 2-1  
3 MIA 2-7 1-2  
4 NYJ 1-7 0-2  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 5-3 1-1  
2 BAL 3-5 1-0  
3 CIN 3-6 2-0  
4 CLE 2-6 0-3  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 IND 7-2 2-0  
2 JAX 5-3 1-0  
3 HOU 3-5 1-1  
4 TEN 1-8 0-3  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 7-2 0-1  
2 LAC 6-3 3-0  
3 KC 5-4 1-1  
4 LV 2-6 0-2  

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 10

NFC

NO is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NO loss

 

AFC

There are no Elimination Scenarios in the AFC for week 10

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 10

Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
PHI 20% 20% 22% 31% <1% 1% 1% 7%
TB 17% 17% 21% 21% 3% 4% 4% 14%
SEA 15% 11% 7% 3% 20% 14% 10% 20%
GB 10% 13% 12% 9% 8% 10% 11% 29%
LAR 16% 11% 7% 3% 19% 14% 10% 21%
SF 10% 8% 6% 2% 22% 17% 12% 23%
DET 5% 7% 7% 5% 8% 11% 12% 46%
CHI 5% 7% 7% 5% 8% 11% 12% 46%
CAR 2% 4% 7% 8% 6% 8% 10% 54%
MIN 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% 6% 8% 72%
DAL <1% <1% 1% 4% <1% 1% 2% 92%
ARI <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 92%
ATL <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 91%
WAS <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% 1% 96%
NYG <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
NO <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
IND 27% 22% 19% 7% 8% 7% 5% 5%
NE 21% 20% 17% 6% 14% 11% 7% 5%
DEN 21% 20% 16% 4% 13% 11% 8% 6%
PIT 4% 8% 15% 48% <1% 1% 3% 21%
BUF 13% 11% 9% 3% 25% 18% 11% 10%
LAC 7% 9% 10% 3% 19% 18% 15% 18%
JAX 5% 6% 8% 3% 12% 16% 19% 30%
KC 1% 3% 4% 2% 6% 12% 18% 54%
HOU <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 7% 87%
BAL <1% <1% 1% 14% <1% 1% 2% 82%
CIN <1% <1% <1% 7% <1% 1% 2% 90%
LV <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 98%
CLE <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 96%
MIA <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
NYJ <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
TEN <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 10

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI

Teams that control the 2 seed:
LAR TB BUF IND

Teams that control the 3 seed:
SEA SF GB NE JAX DEN LAC

Teams that control the 4 seed:
DET CHI MIN CAR PIT BAL KC

Teams that control the 5 seed:
None

Teams that control the 6 seed:
None

Teams that control the 7 seed:
HOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL WAS NYG ATL NO ARI MIA NYJ CIN CLE TEN LV

 

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