Standings Entering Week 11

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 7-2 6-1 SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (2-1 vs 1-1). PHI wins the tiebreak over SEA on Conference Record (6-1 vs 4-2).
2 SEA 7-2 4-2 SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (2-1 vs 1-1).
3 DET 6-3 3-2 DET wins the tiebreak over CHI on Head-to-Head (1-0). DET wins the tiebreak over TB on Head-to-Head.
4 TB 6-3 4-2  
5 LAR 7-2 2-2  
6 CHI 6-3 4-2  
7 GB 5-3-1 3-2-1  
8 SF 6-4 6-2  
9 CAR 5-5 3-2  
10 MIN 4-5 2-2  
11 DAL 3-5-1 2-4-1  
12 ARI 3-6 3-4 ARI wins the tiebreak over ATL on Conference Record (3-4 vs 2-3).
13 ATL 3-6 2-3  
14 WAS 3-7 1-6  
15 NO 2-8 2-6 NO wins the tiebreak over NYG on Head-to-Head.
16 NYG 2-8 1-6  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 IND 8-2 6-1 IND wins the tiebreak over DEN/NE on Conference Record (6-1 vs 5-2/4-2).
2 DEN 8-2 5-2 DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Conference Record (5-2 vs 4-2).
3 NE 8-2 4-2  
4 PIT 5-4 4-2  
5 LAC 7-3 6-1  
6 BUF 6-3 4-2  
7 JAX 5-4 3-2 JAX wins the tiebreak over KC on Head-to-Head.
8 KC 5-4 2-3  
9 HOU 4-5 3-2 HOU wins the tiebreak over BAL on Head-to-Head.
10 BAL 4-5 2-3  
11 CIN 3-6 3-2  
12 MIA 3-7 2-6  
13 NYJ 2-7 2-4 NYJ wins the tiebreak over LV/CLE on Conference Record (2-4 vs 2-5/1-5).
14 LV 2-7 2-5 LV wins the tiebreak over CLE on Conference Record (2-5 vs 1-5).
15 CLE 2-7 1-5  
16 TEN 1-8 0-7  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 7-2 2-1  
2 DAL 3-5-1 2-1  
3 WAS 3-7 1-1  
4 NYG 2-8 1-3  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DET 6-3 1-2 DET wins the tiebreak over CHI on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 CHI 6-3 0-2  
3 GB 5-3-1 1-0  
4 MIN 4-5 2-0  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 6-3 2-0  
2 CAR 5-5 1-1  
3 ATL 3-6 0-2  
4 NO 2-8 1-1  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SEA 7-2 2-1 SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (2-1 vs 1-1).
2 LAR 7-2 1-1  
3 SF 6-4 3-1  
4 ARI 3-6 0-3  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 8-2 2-0  
2 BUF 6-3 2-2  
3 MIA 3-7 2-2  
4 NYJ 2-7 0-2  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 5-4 1-1  
2 BAL 4-5 1-0  
3 CIN 3-6 2-0  
4 CLE 2-7 0-3  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 IND 8-2 2-0  
2 JAX 5-4 1-1  
3 HOU 4-5 2-1  
4 TEN 1-8 0-3  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 8-2 1-1  
2 LAC 7-3 3-0  
3 KC 5-4 1-1  
4 LV 2-7 0-3  

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 11

NFC

NYG is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NYG loss
OR 2) NYG tie + TB win + CAR win
OR 3) NYG tie + TB win + CAR tie + SF win/tie
OR 4) NYG tie + TB win + CAR tie + DET win
OR 5) NYG tie + TB win + SF win + SEA win
OR 6) NYG tie + TB win + SF win + DET win
OR 7) NYG tie + TB win + SF tie + SEA win + DET win
OR 8) NYG tie + TB tie + CAR win + SF win/tie
OR 9) NYG tie + TB tie + CAR win + DET win
OR 10) NYG tie + TB tie + CAR tie + SF win + SEA win
OR 11) NYG tie + TB tie + CAR tie + SF win + DET win
OR 12) NYG tie + TB tie + CAR tie + SF tie + SEA win + DET win
OR 13) NYG tie + TB tie + SF win + SEA win + DET win
OR 14) NYG tie + CAR win + SF win + SEA win
OR 15) NYG tie + CAR win + SF win + DET win
OR 16) NYG tie + CAR win + SF tie + SEA win + DET win
OR 17) NYG tie + CAR tie + SF win + SEA win + DET win

 

AFC

LV is knocked out of AFC West title (and 1 seed) contention with:
         1) LV loss + DEN win + LAC win

 

TEN is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) TEN loss

 

TEN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) TEN loss/tie
OR 2) DEN win + LAC win + LV loss/tie

 

NYJ is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NYJ loss + DEN win + LAC win + LV loss/tie

 

MIA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) MIA loss + DEN win + LAC win + LV loss/tie

 

CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CLE loss + DEN win + LAC win

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 11

We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in the past, the tables below have been equal chance for win, loss, and tie. For a number of reasons (including many requests from visitors), we are changing the simulation to be 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, 1% tie. This means that the table no longer shows a perfect percentage of possible outcomes, but it shows a more likely distribution of the possible outcomes.

The table below is from 1 millions simulations using the above 49.5/49.5/1 criteria. To reiterate, this is not a prediction.

If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
PHI 27% 23% 25% 17% <1% 1% 1% 5%
SEA 19% 14% 8% 4% 21% 13% 8% 13%
DET 9% 12% 10% 5% 9% 12% 12% 31%
TB 7% 11% 18% 36% 1% 2% 3% 21%
LAR 20% 13% 7% 3% 21% 13% 8% 14%
CHI 9% 11% 9% 4% 12% 12% 12% 32%
GB 4% 8% 9% 5% 8% 12% 14% 41%
SF 4% 4% 3% 2% 18% 18% 15% 36%
CAR 1% 3% 6% 14% 3% 5% 8% 61%
MIN <1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 5% 8% 77%
DAL <1% <1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 4% 88%
ARI <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 94%
ATL <1% <1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 92%
WAS <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 97%
NO <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
NYG <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
IND 33% 24% 18% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4%
DEN 24% 20% 11% 2% 21% 11% 6% 5%
NE 20% 24% 26% 8% 6% 7% 5% 5%
PIT 2% 4% 10% 37% 1% 3% 5% 39%
LAC 11% 12% 10% 1% 26% 16% 11% 12%
BUF 5% 7% 8% 2% 19% 21% 14% 24%
JAX 2% 4% 6% 2% 9% 13% 16% 48%
KC 2% 3% 3% 1% 8% 13% 16% 54%
HOU <1% 1% 3% 1% 4% 8% 12% 71%
BAL <1% 1% 3% 28% <1% 1% 2% 65%
CIN <1% <1% 1% 12% <1% 1% 3% 82%
MIA <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 98%
NYJ <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 97%
LV <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 98%
CLE <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 97%
TEN <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 11

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI IND(2)

Teams that control the 2 seed:
SEA(3) LAR DEN(3)

Teams that control the 3 seed:
NE JAX LAC

Teams that control the 4 seed:
DET CHI GB(3) TB(2) CAR PIT BAL KC

Teams that control the 5 seed:
BUF(2)

Teams that control the 6 seed:
SF(3)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
MIN(4) HOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL WAS NYG ATL NO ARI MIA NYJ CIN CLE TEN LV

 

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