NOTE: NO, WAS, ATL, and ARI (beyond division contention) can be knocked out of 1 seed contention this week. The scenarios have a lot of moving factors, making it difficult to and time-consuming to go through them comprehensively. To give you something readable to look at, we’ve added the simple tie-free pure-record 1 seed elimination scenarios for the teams in question. There are many subsets of these that will still eliminate, but this gives the readable high level view.

The live update post on Sunday will be monitoring these scenarios and we well let you know when one has been satisfied, even if it’s more restrictive than what shows here.

NOTE 2: After some analysis, none of NO, WAS, ATL, and ARI can be knocked out of 1 seed contention by the early window on Sunday, so we should be able to do some extra and quicker analysis for those games knowing the results of the early window games. Thursday night has no bearing.

Standings Entering Week 12

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 8-2 7-1 PHI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Head-to-Head.
2 LAR 8-2 3-2  
3 CHI 7-3 5-2  
4 TB 6-4 4-2  
5 SEA 7-3 4-3  
6 GB 6-3-1 4-2-1  
7 SF 7-4 7-2  
8 DET 6-4 3-3  
9 CAR 6-5 4-2  
10 DAL 4-5-1 2-4-1  
11 MIN 4-6 2-3  
12 ARI 3-7 3-5 ARI wins the tiebreak over ATL on Conference Record (3-5 vs 2-4).
13 ATL 3-7 2-4  
14 WAS 3-8 1-6  
15 NO 2-8 2-6  
16 NYG 2-9 1-7  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 9-2 6-2 DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Conference Record (6-2 vs 5-2).
2 NE 9-2 5-2  
3 IND 8-2 6-1  
4 PIT 6-4 5-2  
5 BUF 7-3 4-2  
6 LAC 7-4 6-2  
7 JAX 6-4 4-2  
8 HOU 5-5 4-2 BAL drops out of the tiebreak with HOU/KC on Head-to-Head Sweep. HOU wins the tiebreak over KC on Conference Record (4-2 vs 2-4).
9 KC 5-5 2-4 KC wins the tiebreak over BAL on Head-to-Head.
10 BAL 5-5 3-3  
11 MIA 4-7 2-6  
12 CIN 3-7 3-3  
13 LV 2-8 2-5 CLE drops out of the tiebreak with NYJ/LV on Conference Record (1-6 vs 2-5). LV wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Strength of Victory (10-11 vs 5-15).
14 NYJ 2-8 2-5 NYJ wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head.
15 CLE 2-8 1-6  
16 TENk 1-9 0-8  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 8-2 2-1  
2 DAL 4-5-1 2-1  
3 WAS 3-8 1-1  
4 NYG 2-9 1-3  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CHI 7-3 1-2  
2 GB 6-3-1 1-0  
3 DET 6-4 1-2  
4 MIN 4-6 2-1  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 6-4 2-0  
2 CAR 6-5 2-1  
3 ATL 3-7 0-3  
4 NO 2-8 1-1  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LAR 8-2 2-1  
2 SEA 7-3 2-2  
3 SF 7-4 4-1  
4 ARI 3-7 0-4  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 9-2 3-0  
2 BUF 7-3 2-2  
3 MIA 4-7 2-2  
4 NYJ 2-8 0-3  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 6-4 2-1  
2 BAL 5-5 2-0  
3 CIN 3-7 2-1  
4 CLE 2-8 0-4  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 IND 8-2 2-0  
2 JAX 6-4 1-1  
3 HOU 5-5 3-1  
4 TENk 1-9 0-4  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 9-2 2-1  
2 LAC 7-4 3-0  
3 KC 5-5 1-2  
4 LV 2-8 0-3  

k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 12

NFC

NYG is knocked out of NFC East title contention with:
         1) NYG loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win/tie

 

NYG is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NYG loss + SEA win/tie
OR 2) NYG loss + MIN win
OR 3) NYG loss + DAL win

 

ARI is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with:
         1) ARI loss + LAR win + SEA win
OR 2) ARI loss + LAR win + SEA tie + SF win
OR 3) ARI loss + LAR tie + SEA win + SF win

 

NOTE: Due to complexities, time constraints, and readability, this is far from exhaustive. For readability at this point, most of the scenarios are no-tie, pure-record elimination. Variations may be added, but these are less restrictive than the full set. All of these will satisfy the scenario, but there are many subsets of these which will as well. However, they cannot be eliminated by the end of the early Sunday Window. The live update post on Sunday will be monitoring these scenarios and we well let you know when one has been satisfied, even if it’s more restrictive than what shows here.

ARI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) ARI loss + LAR win + SEA win
OR 2) ARI loss + LAR win + SEA tie + SF win
OR 3) ARI loss + LAR win + SF win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 4) ARI loss + LAR win + SF win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 5) ARI loss + LAR tie + SEA win + SF win
OR 6) ARI loss + SEA win + SF win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 7) ARI loss + SEA win + SF win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 8) ARI loss + SF win + PHI win + CHI win
OR 9) ARI loss + PHI win + CHI win + GB win

 

NOTE: Due to complexities, time constraints, and readability, this is far from exhaustive. For readability at this point, most of the scenarios are no-tie, pure-record elimination. Variations may be added, but these are less restrictive than the full set. All of these will satisfy the scenario, but there are many subsets of these which will as well. However, they cannot be eliminated by the end of the early Sunday Window. The live update post on Sunday will be monitoring these scenarios and we well let you know when one has been satisfied, even if it’s more restrictive than what shows here.

WAS is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) LAR win + SEA win + SF win
OR 2) LAR win + SEA win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 3) LAR win + SEA win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 4) LAR win + SEA win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 5) LAR win + SF win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 6) LAR win + SF win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 7) LAR win + SF win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 8) SEA win + SF win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 9) SEA win + SF win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 10) SEA win + SF win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 11) PHI win + CHI win + GB win

 

NOTE: Due to complexities, time constraints, and readability, this is far from exhaustive. For readability at this point, most of the scenarios are no-tie, pure-record elimination. Variations may be added, but these are less restrictive than the full set. All of these will satisfy the scenario, but there are many subsets of these which will as well. However, they cannot be eliminated by the end of the early Sunday Window. The live update post on Sunday will be monitoring these scenarios and we well let you know when one has been satisfied, even if it’s more restrictive than what shows here.

NO is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NO loss/tie
OR 2) LAR win + SEA win + SF win
OR 3) LAR win + SEA win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 4) LAR win + SEA win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 5) LAR win + SEA win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 6) LAR win + SF win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 7) LAR win + SF win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 8) LAR win + SF win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 9) SEA win + SF win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 10) SEA win + SF win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 11) SEA win + SF win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 12) LAR tie + SEA win + SF win + PHI win
OR 13) LAR tie + SEA win + SF win + PHI tie + CHI win/tie
OR 14) LAR tie + SEA win + SF win + CHI win + DET win/tie
OR 15) LAR tie + SEA win + SF win + CHI win + GB win/tie
OR 16) PHI win + CHI win + GB win

 

NOTE: Due to complexities, time constraints, and readability, this is far from exhaustive. For readability at this point, most of the scenarios are no-tie, pure-record elimination. Variations may be added, but these are less restrictive than the full set. All of these will satisfy the scenario, but there are many subsets of these which will as well. However, they cannot be eliminated by the end of the early Sunday Window. The live update post on Sunday will be monitoring these scenarios and we well let you know when one has been satisfied, even if it’s more restrictive than what shows here.

ATL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) ATL loss + LAR win + SEA win + SF win
OR 2) ATL loss + LAR win + SEA win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 3) ATL loss + LAR win + SEA win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 4) ATL loss + LAR win + SEA win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 5) ATL loss + LAR win + SF win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 6) ATL loss + LAR win + SF win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 7) ATL loss + LAR win + SF win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 8) ATL loss + SEA win + SF win + PHI win + CHI win + DET win
OR 9) ATL loss + SEA win + SF win + PHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 10) ATL loss + SEA win + SF win + CHI win + DET win + GB win
OR 11) ATL loss + PHI win + CHI win + GB win

 

AFC

LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) LV loss/tie

 

LV is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) LV loss/tie
OR 2) NE win/tie
OR 3) IND win + JAX win/tie
OR 4) IND tie + JAX win

 

NYJ is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) NYJ loss/tie
OR 2) NE win/tie

 

NYJ is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NYJ loss/tie
OR 2) NE win/tie
OR 3) IND win + JAX win/tie
OR 4) IND tie + JAX win

 

CLE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CLE loss/tie
OR 2) NE win/tie
OR 3) IND win/tie
OR 4) JAX win/tie

 

CIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CIN loss

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 12

We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.

The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).

If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
PHI 38% 26% 23% 9% <1% 1% 1% 2%
LAR 25% 19% 10% 4% 18% 10% 6% 7%
CHI 13% 14% 12% 5% 12% 12% 11% 21%
TB 3% 6% 12% 40% 1% 2% 4% 32%
SEA 8% 8% 5% 2% 22% 18% 13% 22%
GB 5% 10% 13% 5% 9% 14% 15% 29%
SF 5% 6% 4% 2% 24% 20% 15% 24%
DET 3% 6% 9% 3% 8% 12% 14% 46%
CAR 1% 4% 8% 25% 3% 5% 8% 47%
DAL <1% <1% 2% 2% 2% 4% 7% 84%
MIN <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 5% 89%
ARI <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
ATL <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 1% 98%
WAS <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
NO <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
NYG     <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DEN 32% 25% 17% 3% 11% 7% 3% 2%
NE 26% 26% 22% 6% 8% 6% 3% 2%
IND 27% 23% 19% 6% 8% 7% 5% 6%
PIT 2% 5% 11% 41% 1% 3% 6% 31%
BUF 6% 7% 6% 1% 28% 21% 14% 17%
LAC 4% 6% 9% 1% 22% 19% 17% 23%
JAX 3% 5% 7% 3% 12% 17% 17% 36%
HOU <1% 1% 4% 1% 6% 10% 14% 62%
KC <1% 1% 1% <1% 4% 8% 13% 73%
BAL <1% 1% 3% 32% <1% 1% 3% 59%
MIA <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 97%
CIN <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% 1% 2% 94%
LV <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
NYJ <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
CLE <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
TEN         <1% <1% <1% >99%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 12

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI IND

Teams that control the 2 seed:
CHI(4) LAR DEN

Teams that control the 3 seed:
GB(4) NE JAX

Teams that control the 4 seed:
DET TB CAR PIT BAL

Teams that control the 5 seed:
SEA(2) SF(6) BUF

Teams that control the 6 seed:
LAC(3)

Teams that control the 7 seed:
HOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL WAS NYG MIN(7) ATL NO ARI
MIA NYJ CIN CLE TEN KC(4) LV

 

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