- Standings Entering Week 13
- Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 13
- Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 13
- Seed Control Entering Week 13
- Please consider supporting us!
- Contact Us
Standings Entering Week 13
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 LAR |
9-2 | 4-2 | |
| 2 |
 PHI |
8-3 | 7-2 | PHI wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (7-2 vs 5-2). |
| 3 |
 CHI |
8-3 | 5-2 | |
| 4 |
 TB |
6-5 | 4-3 | |
| 5 |
 SEA |
8-3 | 4-3 | |
| 6 |
 GB |
7-3-1 | 5-2-1 | |
| 7 |
 SF |
8-4 | 8-2 | |
| 8 |
 DET |
7-4 | 4-3 | |
| 9 |
 CAR |
6-6 | 4-3 | CAR wins the tiebreak over DAL on Head-to-Head. |
| 10 |
 DAL |
5-5-1 | 3-4-1 | |
| 11 |
 ATL |
4-7 | 3-4 | ATL wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head. |
| 12 |
 MIN |
4-7 | 2-4 | |
| 13 |
 ARIk |
3-8 | 3-5 | ARI wins the tiebreak over WAS on Conference Record (3-5 vs 1-6). |
| 14 |
 WAS |
3-8 | 1-6 | |
| 15 |
 NO |
2-9 | 2-7 | |
| 16 |
 NYGke |
2-10 | 1-8 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 NE |
10-2 | 6-2 | |
| 2 |
 DEN |
9-2 | 6-2 | |
| 3 |
 IND |
8-3 | 6-2 | |
| 4 |
 BAL |
6-5 | 4-3 | BAL wins the tiebreak over PIT on Division Record (2-0 vs 2-1). |
| 5 |
 LAC |
7-4 | 6-2 | LAC wins the tiebreak over JAX/BUF on Conference Record (6-2 vs 4-2/4-3). |
| 6 |
 JAX |
7-4 | 4-2 | JAX wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (4-2 vs 4-3). |
| 7 |
 BUF |
7-4 | 4-3 | |
| 8 |
 HOU |
6-5 | 5-2 | KC drops out of the tiebreak with PIT/HOU on Conference Record (3-4 vs 5-2). HOU wins the tiebreak over PIT on Strength of Schedule (69-53 vs 63-58-1). |
| 9 |
 PIT |
6-5 | 5-2 | PIT wins the tiebreak over KC on Conference Record (5-2 vs 3-4). |
| 10 |
 KC |
6-5 | 3-4 | |
| 11 |
 MIA |
4-7 | 2-6 | |
| 12 |
 CIN |
3-8 | 3-4 | CIN wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 13 |
 CLE |
3-8 | 2-6 | |
| 14 |
 LVk |
2-9 | 2-6 | LV wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Strength of Victory (11-12 vs 6-16). |
| 15 |
 NYJk |
2-9 | 2-6 | |
| 16 |
 TENk |
1-10 | 0-8 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PHI |
8-3 | 2-2 | |
| 2 |
DAL |
5-5-1 | 3-1 | |
| 3 |
WAS |
3-8 | 1-1 | |
| 4 |
NYGke |
2-10 | 1-3 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
CHI |
8-3 | 1-2 | |
| 2 |
GB |
7-3-1 | 2-0 | |
| 3 |
DET |
7-4 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
MIN |
4-7 | 2-2 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
TB |
6-5 | 2-0 | |
| 2 |
CAR |
6-6 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
ATL |
4-7 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
NO |
2-9 | 1-2 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
LAR |
9-2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 |
SEA |
8-3 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
SF |
8-4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 |
ARIk |
3-8 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
NE |
10-2 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
BUF |
7-4 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
MIA |
4-7 | 2-2 | |
| 4 |
NYJk |
2-9 | 0-3 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
BAL |
6-5 | 2-0 | BAL wins the tiebreak over PIT on Division Record (2-0 vs 2-1). |
| 2 |
PIT |
6-5 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
CIN |
3-8 | 2-1 | CIN wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 4 |
CLE |
3-8 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
IND |
8-3 | 2-0 | |
| 2 |
JAX |
7-4 | 1-1 | |
| 3 |
HOU |
6-5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 |
TENk |
1-10 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DEN |
9-2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 |
LAC |
7-4 | 3-0 | |
| 3 |
KC |
6-5 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
LVk |
2-9 | 0-3 |
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, NO, WAS, ARI
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN, NYJ, LV, CLE, CIN
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 13
NFC
|
ARI is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
ARI loss +
CHI win/tie +
GB win |
|
WAS is knocked out of NFC East title contention with: |
| 1) |
WAS loss +
PHI win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
WAS tie +
PHI win |
|
WAS is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
WAS loss +
GB win +
SEA win/tie +
PHI/
CHI tie |
|
NO is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
NO loss +
TB win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
NO loss +
CAR win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
NO tie +
TB win +
CAR win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
NO tie +
TB tie +
CAR win |
|
MIN is knocked out of NFC North title contention with: |
| 1) |
MIN loss +
CHI win |
|
| OR | 2) |
MIN loss +
CHI tie +
GB tie |
| OR | 3) |
MIN loss +
GB win |
| OR | 4) |
MIN tie +
CHI win +
GB win |
|
MIN is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
MIN loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
MIN tie +
LAR win |
| OR | 3) |
MIN tie +
LAR tie +
SF tie |
| OR | 4) |
MIN tie +
LAR tie +
CHI tie |
| OR | 5) |
MIN tie +
LAR tie +
GB win |
| OR | 6) |
MIN tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 7) |
MIN tie +
CHI tie +
GB win |
| OR | 8) |
MIN tie +
CHI tie +
SF tie |
| OR | 9) |
MIN tie +
SF win |
| OR | 10) |
MIN tie +
SF tie +
GB win |
|
ATL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
ATL loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
ATL tie +
LAR win |
| OR | 3) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
SEA win |
| OR | 4) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
SF tie |
| OR | 5) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
CHI tie |
| OR | 6) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
GB win |
| OR | 7) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
SF win |
| OR | 8) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
SF tie +
CHI tie |
| OR | 9) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
SF tie +
GB win |
| OR | 10) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 11) |
ATL tie +
LAR tie +
CHI tie +
GB win |
| OR | 12) |
ATL tie +
SEA win +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 13) |
ATL tie +
SEA win +
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 14) |
ATL tie +
SEA win +
GB win |
| OR | 15) |
ATL tie +
SEA tie +
SF win |
| OR | 16) |
ATL tie +
SEA tie +
SF tie +
CHI tie |
| OR | 17) |
ATL tie +
SEA tie +
SF tie +
GB win |
| OR | 18) |
ATL tie +
SEA tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 19) |
ATL tie +
SEA tie +
CHI tie +
GB win |
| OR | 20) |
ATL tie +
SF win +
CHI win |
| OR | 21) |
ATL tie +
SF win +
CHI tie +
GB win |
| OR | 22) |
ATL tie +
CHI win +
GB win |
| OR | 23) |
LAR win +
SEA win +
SF win |
| OR | 24) |
LAR win +
SEA win +
SF tie +
CHI win +
GB win |
| OR | 25) |
LAR win +
SEA tie +
SF win +
CHI win +
GB win |
| OR | 26) |
LAR tie +
SEA win +
SF win +
CHI win +
GB win |
|
CAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
CAR loss +
SEA win +
SF win |
|
| OR | 2) |
CAR loss +
SEA win +
SF tie +
CHI win +
GB win |
| OR | 3) |
CAR loss +
SEA tie +
SF win +
CHI win +
GB win |
AFC
|
TEN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
TEN loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
BUF win/tie +
HOU win |
| OR | 3) |
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
KC tie |
| OR | 4) |
BUF win/tie +
KC win |
| OR | 5) |
BAL win +
HOU win |
| OR | 6) |
BAL win +
HOU tie +
KC tie |
| OR | 7) |
BAL win +
KC win |
|
NYJ is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
NYJ loss +
JAX win/tie +
BUF win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
NYJ loss +
JAX win/tie +
HOU win +
KC win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
NYJ loss +
JAX win/tie +
HOU tie +
KC win |
| OR | 4) |
NYJ loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
KC win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
NYJ loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
KC win |
| OR | 6) |
NYJ loss +
BUF/
PIT tie +
KC win + MIA win + MIN win + LAC win/tie + CLE win/tie |
| OR | 7) |
NYJ tie +
BUF win +
JAX win +
LAC win/tie |
| OR | 8) |
NYJ tie +
BUF win +
JAX win +
HOU win/tie |
| OR | 9) |
NYJ tie +
BUF win +
JAX win +
KC win/tie |
| OR | 10) |
NYJ tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
KC win |
| OR | 11) |
NYJ tie +
JAX win +
HOU win +
KC win |
The portion in italics in scenario 6 is to prevent NYJ from clinching at least a Strength of Victory tie against PIT & HOU simultaneously.
|
LV is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
LV loss +
BUF win/tie +
JAX win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LV loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
KC win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
LV loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
KC win |
| OR | 4) |
LV loss +
JAX win/tie +
HOU win |
| OR | 5) |
LV loss +
JAX win/tie +
HOU tie +
KC tie |
| OR | 6) |
LV loss +
JAX win/tie +
KC win |
| OR | 7) |
LV tie +
JAX win +
BUF win |
| OR | 8) |
LV tie +
JAX win +
BUF tie +
HOU win +
KC win |
|
CIN is knocked out of AFC North title contention with: |
| 1) |
CIN loss +
PIT win |
|
CLE is knocked out of AFC North title contention with: |
| 1) |
CLE loss +
PIT win +
BAL win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
CLE loss +
PIT tie +
BAL win |
|
MIA is knocked out of AFC East title contention with: |
| 1) |
MIA loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
NE win/tie |
|
MIA is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
MIA loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
NE win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
IND win +
JAX win |
| OR | 4) |
IND win +
JAX tie +
DEN win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
IND tie +
JAX win +
DEN win/tie |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 13
We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.
The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).
If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LAR |
34% | 19% | 7% | <1% | 19% | 11% | 6% | 4% |
|
PHI |
18% | 24% | 41% | 9% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
|
CHI |
17% | 18% | 9% | 1% | 12% | 13% | 13% | 16% |
|
TB |
<1% | 1% | 8% | 51% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 39% |
|
SEA |
11% | 8% | 4% | <1% | 23% | 20% | 16% | 18% |
|
GB |
7% | 15% | 10% | 1% | 9% | 16% | 17% | 25% |
|
SF |
8% | 6% | 3% | <1% | 26% | 22% | 18% | 17% |
|
DET |
4% | 7% | 8% | 1% | 9% | 14% | 17% | 40% |
|
CAR |
<1% | 1% | 5% | 31% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 61% |
|
DAL |
<1% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 82% |
|
ATL |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 96% |
|
MIN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 98% |
|
ARI |
<1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | ||||
|
WAS |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | |
|
NO |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | |||
|
NYG |
100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NE |
41% | 30% | 17% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
|
DEN |
33% | 25% | 16% | 2% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% |
|
IND |
14% | 20% | 21% | 5% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 11% |
|
BAL |
<1% | 2% | 6% | 46% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 43% |
|
LAC |
4% | 6% | 9% | 1% | 21% | 17% | 15% | 26% |
|
JAX |
4% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 27% |
|
BUF |
2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 21% | 21% | 18% | 31% |
|
HOU |
1% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 52% |
|
PIT |
1% | 2% | 7% | 34% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 46% |
|
KC |
<1% | 2% | 2% | <1% | 6% | 10% | 14% | 66% |
|
MIA |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 98% |
|
CIN |
<1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 98% | |
|
CLE |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | ||
|
LV |
<1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | ||||
|
NYJ |
<1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | ||||
|
TEN |
<1% | <1% | >99% |
Seed Control Entering Week 13
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
LAR(2)
DEN(2)
Teams that control the 2 seed:
PHI(1)
CHI
NE(3)
Teams that control the 3 seed:
GB
DET(4)
IND(1)
JAX
Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB
CAR
PIT
BAL
Teams that control the 5 seed:
SEA
SF
LAC(6)
Teams that control the 6 seed:
BUF(5)
Teams that control the 7 seed:
HOU
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
WAS
MIN
ATL
NO
ARI
MIA
NYJ
CIN
CLE
TEN
KC
LV
Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG
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