Standings Entering Week 14

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CHI 9-3 6-2 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). CHI wins the tiebreak over LAR on Conference Record (6-2 vs 4-3).
2 LAR 9-3 4-3 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 PHI 8-4 7-3  
4 TB 7-5 5-3  
5 SEA 9-3 5-3  
6 GB 8-3-1 6-2-1  
7 SF 9-4 8-2  
8 DET 7-5 4-4  
9 DAL 6-5-1 3-4-1  
10 CAR 7-6 5-3  
11 ATL 4-8 3-4 ATL wins the tiebreak over MIN on Head-to-Head.
12 MINk 4-8 2-5  
13 ARIke 3-9 3-6 ARI wins the tiebreak over WAS on Conference Record (3-6 vs 1-6).
14 WAS 3-9 1-6  
15 NOke 2-10 2-7  
16 NYGke 2-11 1-8  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 11-2 6-2  
2 DEN 10-2 6-2  
3 JAX 8-4 5-2 JAX wins the tiebreak over IND on Common Games (6-2 vs 5-3).
4 BAL 6-6 4-4 BAL wins the tiebreak over PIT on Common Games (5-2 vs 4-3).
5 LAC 8-4 7-2 LAC wins the tiebreak over IND/BUF on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-3/5-3).
6 IND 8-4 6-3 IND wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (6-3 vs 5-3).
7 BUF 8-4 5-3  
8 HOU 7-5 6-2  
9 PIT 6-6 5-3 PIT wins the tiebreak over KC on Conference Record (5-3 vs 3-4).
10 KC 6-6 3-4  
11 MIAk 5-7 2-6  
12 CIN 4-8 4-4  
13 NYJk 3-9 2-6 NYJ wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head.
14 CLE 3-9 2-6  
15 LVke 2-10 2-7  
16 TENke 1-11 0-9  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 8-4 2-2  
2 DAL 6-5-1 3-1  
3 WAS 3-9 1-1  
4 NYGke 2-11 1-3  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CHI 9-3 1-2  
2 GB 8-3-1 3-0  
3 DET 7-5 1-3  
4 MINk 4-8 2-2  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 7-5 2-0  
2 CAR 7-6 2-1  
3 ATL 4-8 1-3  
4 NOke 2-10 1-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LAR 9-3 2-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 SEA 9-3 2-2  
3 SF 9-4 4-1  
4 ARIke 3-9 0-4  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 11-2 3-0  
2 BUF 8-4 2-2  
3 MIAk 5-7 2-2  
4 NYJk 3-9 0-3  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 BAL 6-6 2-1 BAL wins the tiebreak over PIT on Common Games (5-2 vs 4-3).
2 PIT 6-6 2-1  
3 CIN 4-8 3-1  
4 CLE 3-9 0-4  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAX 8-4 2-1 JAX wins the tiebreak over IND on Common Games (6-2 vs 5-3).
2 IND 8-4 2-1  
3 HOU 7-5 4-1  
4 TENke 1-11 0-5  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 10-2 2-1  
2 LAC 8-4 4-0  
3 KC 6-6 1-2  
4 LVke 2-10 0-4  

e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, NO, WAS, ARI, MIN, ATL
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ, CIN, MIA

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 14

NFC

MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIN loss
OR 2) MIN tie + GB win/tie

 

WAS is eliminated from NFC East title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) WAS loss/tie
OR 2) PHI win/tie

 

ATL is knocked out of NFC South title contention with:
         1) ATL loss
OR 2) ATL tie + TB win/tie

 

ATL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) ATL loss
OR 2) ATL tie + TB win/tie + GB win/tie

 

DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DAL loss + LAR win + SEA win
OR 2) DAL loss + LAR win + SEA tie + CHI win

 

AFC

NYJ is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) NYJ loss/tie
OR 2) HOU win + BUF win/tie
OR 3) HOU win + JAX/ IND tie
OR 4) BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie

 

CLE is eliminated from AFC North title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) CLE loss

 

KC is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) KC loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) KC loss + LAC win
OR 3) KC tie + DEN win

 

KC is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) KC loss/tie

 

BAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) BAL loss/tie

 

PIT is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PIT loss/tie

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 14

We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.

The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).

If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
CHI 29% 22% 4% 1% 12% 12% 11% 10%
LAR 19% 16% 4% <1% 21% 16% 12% 11%
PHI 5% 13% 46% 18% <1% 1% 3% 13%
TB 1% 3% 14% 47% <1% <1% 1% 35%
SEA 17% 12% 3% <1% 22% 20% 14% 11%
GB 13% 20% 5% 1% 12% 17% 19% 14%
SF 15% 10% 3% <1% 26% 21% 16% 9%
DET 1% 3% 2% <1% 5% 9% 15% 64%
DAL <1% 1% 9% 8% <1% 2% 6% 74%
CAR <1% 1% 11% 24% <1% 1% 3% 60%
ATL     <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
MIN           <1% <1% >99%
ARI               100%
WAS     <1% <1%       >99%
NO               100%
NYG               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
NE 45% 36% 9% <1% 6% 3% 1% <1%
DEN 40% 28% 11% <1% 11% 5% 2% 1%
JAX 4% 12% 24% 2% 10% 15% 16% 18%
BAL <1% <1% 2% 49% <1% <1% <1% 49%
LAC 4% 7% 8% <1% 28% 18% 15% 19%
IND 3% 11% 25% 2% 9% 14% 16% 22%
BUF 3% 5% 2% <1% 25% 25% 19% 20%
HOU <1% 2% 16% 1% 8% 14% 18% 41%
PIT <1% <1% 3% 41% <1% <1% 1% 55%
KC <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 5% 9% 84%
MIA         <1% <1% 1% 98%
CIN     <1% 5% <1% <1% <1% 94%
NYJ           <1% <1% >99%
CLE       <1%   <1% <1% >99%
LV               100%
TEN               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 14

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
CHI(2) DEN

Teams that control the 2 seed:
GB(3) LAR(1) SEA(5) NE

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI(2) JAX IND

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB CAR PIT BAL

Teams that control the 5 seed:
SF LAC

Teams that control the 6 seed:
BUF

Teams that control the 7 seed:
HOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL WAS DET(3) MIN ATL MIA NYJ CIN CLE KC

Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG NO ARI TEN LV

 

Please consider supporting us!

We have a Patreon to allow you to donate to cover our costs, which in turn allows us to never put ads on the site again. Any donation is greatly appreciated, both by us and all visitors to the site! If you are unable to or do not wish to donate, that’s totally fine, too. You can help the site by sharing it on social media, and even if you don’t want to do that, just coming to the site helps us out, too!

Contact Us

Patreon | reddit | Facebook | Instagram | Threads | Bluesky