Two important notes regarding the KC elimination scenarios:

1) The KC scenarios involve a lot of Strength of Victory calculations. This is why there are NFC teams in an AFC team’s scenarios. The portions that are strictly for Strength of Victory purposes are in italics. More details for KC are given in the Playoff Picture entering Week 15 post.

2) The software that updates scenarios on the site after each game doesn’t know how to simplify/merge those SoV portions of the scenario, it just knows how process each individual scenario, so while the initial scenarios removed as much redundancy as possible, the live scenarios may show some redundancy as games conclude.

Live standings

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LAR 10-3 5-3 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 GB 9-3-1 7-2-1  
3 PHI 8-5 7-3  
4 CAR 7-6 5-3  
5 SEA 10-3 6-3  
6 SF 9-4 8-2 SF wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (8-2 vs 6-3).
7 CHI 9-4 6-3  
8 DET 8-5 5-4  
9 TB 7-7 5-5 TB wins the tiebreak over DAL on Conference Record (5-5 vs 3-5-1).
10 DAL 6-6-1 3-5-1  
11 MINk 5-8 3-5  
12 ATLke 5-9 4-5  
13 ARIke 3-10 3-7 WAS drops out of the tiebreak with NO/ARI on Conference Record (1-7 vs 3-7). ARI wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head.
14 NOke 3-10 3-7 NO wins the tiebreak over WAS on Conference Record (3-7 vs 1-7).
15 WASke 3-10 1-7  
16 NYGke 2-11 1-8  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 11-2 7-2 DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-2).
2 NE 11-2 6-2  
3 JAX 9-4 6-2  
4 PIT 7-6 6-3  
5 LAC 9-4 7-2 LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-3).
6 BUF 9-4 6-3  
7 HOU 8-5 7-2 HOU wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head (1-0).
8 IND 8-5 6-4  
9 BAL 6-7 4-5 BAL wins the tiebreak over KC/MIA on Conference Record (4-5 vs 3-5/3-6).
10 KCk 6-7 3-5 KC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-6).
11 MIAk 6-7 3-6  
12 CIN 4-9 4-5  
13 NYJke 3-10 2-7 NYJ wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head.
14 CLEke 3-10 2-7  
15 LVke 2-11 2-8 LV wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head.
16 TENke 2-11 1-9  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 8-5 2-2  
2 DAL 6-6-1 3-1  
3 WASke 3-10 1-1  
4 NYGke 2-11 1-3  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 GB 9-3-1 4-0  
2 CHI 9-4 1-3  
3 DET 8-5 1-3  
4 MINk 5-8 2-2  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CAR 7-6 2-1  
2 TB 7-7 2-2  
3 ATLke 5-9 2-3  
4 NOke 3-10 2-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LAR 10-3 3-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 SEA 10-3 2-2  
3 SF 9-4 4-1  
4 ARIke 3-10 0-5  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 11-2 3-0  
2 BUF 9-4 2-2  
3 MIAk 6-7 3-2  
4 NYJke 3-10 0-4  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 7-6 3-1  
2 BAL 6-7 2-2  
3 CIN 4-9 3-1  
4 CLEke 3-10 0-4  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAX 9-4 3-1  
2 HOU 8-5 4-1 HOU wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 IND 8-5 2-2  
4 TENke 2-11 0-5  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 11-2 3-1  
2 LAC 9-4 4-0  
3 KCk 6-7 1-2  
4 LVke 2-11 0-5  

e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, WAS, NO, ARI, ATL, MIN, DAL, TB
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ, CIN, MIA, KC, BAL

Posts from Week 15

- Playoff Picture Entering Week 15

- Notes on the Week 15 Playoff Picture

- FAQ about KC’s elimination scenarios

Live Scenarios:

NFC Clinching Scenarios

LAR clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LAR win

 

AFC Clinching Scenarios

NE clinches the AFC East division title with:
         1) NE win

 

NE clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) NE win
OR 2) NE tie + HOU loss/tie
OR 3) NE tie + IND loss/tie
OR 4) NE tie + JAX loss
OR 5) NE tie + LAC loss
OR 6) HOU loss + IND loss/tie
OR 7) HOU tie + IND loss

 

DEN clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) DEN win
OR 2) DEN tie + IND loss/tie
OR 3) DEN tie + HOU loss/tie
OR 4) DEN tie + LAC loss
OR 5) DEN tie + JAX loss
OR 6) HOU loss + IND loss/tie
OR 7) HOU tie + IND loss

 

NFC Elimination Scenarios

MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIN loss/tie
OR 2) CHI win/tie
OR 3) DET win/tie

 

DET is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DET loss

 

PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PHI loss + LAR win + SEA win/tie
OR 2) PHI loss + LAR win + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win
OR 3) PHI loss + LAR tie + SEA win
OR 4) PHI loss + LAR tie + SEA tie + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win
OR 5) PHI loss + SEA win + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win

 

CAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CAR loss
OR 2) CAR tie + SEA win/tie
OR 3) CAR tie + LAR win/tie
OR 4) CAR tie + SF win/tie
OR 5) CAR tie + GB win
OR 6) CAR tie + GB tie + CHI tie
OR 7) CAR tie + CHI win
OR 8) LAR win + SEA win/tie
OR 9) LAR win + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win
OR 10) LAR tie + SEA win
OR 11) LAR tie + SEA tie + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win
OR 12) SEA win + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win

 

AFC Elimination Scenarios

CIN is eliminated from AFC North title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) CIN loss
OR 2) CIN tie + PIT win

 

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIA loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win/tie
OR 2) MIA loss + BUF win/tie + IND win/tie
OR 3) MIA loss + HOU win + IND win
OR 4) MIA tie + BUF win + JAX win/tie + LAC win/tie + HOU win + IND win/tie
OR 5) MIA tie + BUF win + JAX win/tie + LAC win/tie + HOU tie + IND win

 

KC is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + HOU win
OR 2) KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie
OR 3) KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + IND win
OR 4) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + IND win/tie
OR 5) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR, CIN)
OR 6) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + MIA loss/tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 7) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR win
OR 8) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + MIA tie + BAL loss + 1 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 9) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + 4.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR, CIN)
OR 10) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss/tie + 3.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 11) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR win + 2 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR)
OR 12) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR win + PHI tie + 1.5 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR)
OR 13) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR tie + 2.5 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR)
OR 14) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA tie + BAL loss + 3 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 15) KC loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + 4.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR, CIN)
OR 16) KC loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + MIA loss/tie + 3.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 17) KC loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR win + 2 combined wins from (PHI, GB, SF, LAR)
OR 18) KC loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR tie + PHI tie + 2 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR)
OR 19) KC loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR tie + 2.5 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR)
OR 20) KC loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + GB win + SF win + LAR win
OR 21) KC loss + BUF win/tie + IND win + MIA tie + BAL loss + 3 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 22) KC loss + BUF win + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA tie + BAL loss + PHI win + GB win + 0.5 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win
OR 23) KC loss + BUF tie + HOU win + MIA tie + BAL tie + GB win + MIN win + CLE win
OR 24) KC loss + BUF tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss + BAL loss + PHI win + GB win + 1 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win
OR 25) KC loss + BUF tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA tie + BAL loss + PHI win + GB win + 0.5 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, CLE)
OR 26) KC loss + BUF tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA tie + BAL loss + 1.5 combined wins from (PHI, GB) + 1 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win
OR 27) KC loss + BUF tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA tie + BAL tie + GB win + 2 combined wins from (PHI, CAR, SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win
OR 28) KC loss + BUF tie + IND win + MIA tie + BAL loss + PHI win + GB win + 0.5 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win
OR 29) KC loss + BUF tie + IND win + MIA tie + BAL tie + GB win + 2 combined wins from (PHI, CAR, SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win
OR 30) KC tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + JAX win
OR 31) KC tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + JAX tie + BAL loss
OR 32) KC tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + JAX tie + BAL tie + PIT loss
OR 33) KC tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + JAX tie + BAL tie + PIT tie + 3 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 34) KC tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + JAX tie + BAL tie + 3.5 combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 35) KC tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + JAX tie + PIT loss + 3 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 36) KC tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + JAX tie + PIT tie + 3.5 combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)
OR 37) KC tie + BUF win + HOU win + IND win + JAX tie + 4 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR)

 

BUF is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with:
         1) BUF loss

 

PIT is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PIT loss/tie
OR 2) DEN win/tie
OR 3) NE win/tie
OR 4) LAC win + HOU loss/tie

 

HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) HOU loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) HOU loss + NE win/tie
OR 3) HOU tie + DEN win

 

IND is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) IND loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) IND loss + NE win/tie
OR 3) IND loss + LAC win
OR 4) IND tie + DEN win
OR 5) IND tie + NE win

 

Updates from results in week 15

Clinches

None yet

 

Failures to Clinch

None yet

 

Eliminations

TB has been knocked out of 1 seed contention.

 

Avoided Eliminations

None yet

 

Playoff status going into week 15

Division status

Already clinched division title:
None

Can clinch division title this week:
NE

Can be knocked out of division title contention this week:
CIN, BUF

Already knocked out of division title contention:
NYG, WAS, NO, ARI, ATL, MIN, TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ, MIA, KC

Playoff Status

Already clinched a playoff berth:
None

Can clinch a playoff berth this week:
LAR, NE, DEN

Can be eliminated from playoff contention this week:
MIN, CIN, MIA, KC

Already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG, WAS, NO, ARI, ATL, TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ

 

Update 1 (TNF): Updated for ATL/TB - TB cannot get the 1 seed

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