TB 1 seed elimination and KC playoff scenarios are not yet complete. They will be gradually growing. Especially KC, who has some Strength of Victory shenanigans.

Standings Entering Week 15

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LAR 10-3 5-3 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 GB 9-3-1 7-2-1  
3 PHI 8-5 7-3  
4 TB 7-6 5-4 TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-4 vs 4-5).
5 SEA 10-3 6-3  
6 SF 9-4 8-2 SF wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (8-2 vs 6-3).
7 CHI 9-4 6-3  
8 DET 8-5 5-4  
9 CAR 7-6 5-3  
10 DAL 6-6-1 3-5-1  
11 MINk 5-8 3-5  
12 ATLke 4-9 3-5  
13 ARIke 3-10 3-7 WAS drops out of the tiebreak with NO/ARI on Conference Record (1-7 vs 3-7). ARI wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head.
14 NOke 3-10 3-7 NO wins the tiebreak over WAS on Conference Record (3-7 vs 1-7).
15 WASke 3-10 1-7  
16 NYGke 2-11 1-8  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 11-2 7-2 DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-2).
2 NE 11-2 6-2  
3 JAX 9-4 6-2  
4 PIT 7-6 6-3  
5 LAC 9-4 7-2 LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-3).
6 BUF 9-4 6-3  
7 HOU 8-5 7-2 HOU wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head (1-0).
8 IND 8-5 6-4  
9 BAL 6-7 4-5 BAL wins the tiebreak over KC/MIA on Conference Record (4-5 vs 3-5/3-6).
10 KCk 6-7 3-5 KC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-6).
11 MIAk 6-7 3-6  
12 CIN 4-9 4-5  
13 NYJke 3-10 2-7 NYJ wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head.
14 CLEke 3-10 2-7  
15 LVke 2-11 2-8 LV wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head.
16 TENke 2-11 1-9  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 8-5 2-2  
2 DAL 6-6-1 3-1  
3 WASke 3-10 1-1  
4 NYGke 2-11 1-3  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 GB 9-3-1 4-0  
2 CHI 9-4 1-3  
3 DET 8-5 1-3  
4 MINk 5-8 2-2  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 7-6 2-1 TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-4 vs 4-5).
2 CAR 7-6 2-1  
3 ATLke 4-9 1-3  
4 NOke 3-10 2-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LAR 10-3 3-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 SEA 10-3 2-2  
3 SF 9-4 4-1  
4 ARIke 3-10 0-5  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 11-2 3-0  
2 BUF 9-4 2-2  
3 MIAk 6-7 3-2  
4 NYJke 3-10 0-4  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 7-6 3-1  
2 BAL 6-7 2-2  
3 CIN 4-9 3-1  
4 CLEke 3-10 0-4  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAX 9-4 3-1  
2 HOU 8-5 4-1 HOU wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head (1-0).
3 IND 8-5 2-2  
4 TENke 2-11 0-5  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DEN 11-2 3-1  
2 LAC 9-4 4-0  
3 KCk 6-7 1-2  
4 LVke 2-11 0-5  

e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, WAS, NO, ARI, ATL, MIN, DAL
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ, CIN, MIA, KC, BAL

 

Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 15

NFC

LAR clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LAR win

 

AFC

NE clinches the AFC East division title with:
         1) NE win

 

NE clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) NE win
OR 2) NE tie + HOU loss/tie
OR 3) NE tie + IND loss/tie
OR 4) NE tie + JAX loss
OR 5) NE tie + LAC loss
OR 6) HOU loss + IND loss/tie
OR 7) HOU tie + IND loss

 

DEN clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) DEN win
OR 2) DEN tie + IND loss/tie
OR 3) DEN tie + HOU loss/tie
OR 4) DEN tie + LAC loss
OR 5) DEN tie + JAX loss
OR 6) HOU loss + IND loss/tie
OR 7) HOU tie + IND loss

 

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 15

NFC

MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIN loss/tie
OR 2) CHI win/tie
OR 3) DET win/tie

 

DET is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) DET loss

 

PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PHI loss + LAR win + SEA win/tie
OR 2) PHI loss + LAR win + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win
OR 3) PHI loss + LAR tie + SEA win
OR 4) PHI loss + LAR tie + SEA tie + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win
OR 5) PHI loss + SEA win + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win

 

The TB 1 seed elimination scenarios are still in progress

TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) TB loss
OR 2) TB tie + LAR win/tie
OR 3) TB tie + SEA win/tie
OR 4) TB tie + SF win/tie
OR 5) TB tie + GB win/tie
OR 6) TB tie + CHI win/tie
OR 7) LAR win + SEA win/tie
OR 8) LAR tie + SEA win

 

CAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CAR loss
OR 2) CAR tie + SEA win/tie
OR 3) CAR tie + LAR win/tie
OR 4) CAR tie + SF win/tie
OR 5) CAR tie + GB win
OR 6) CAR tie + GB tie + CHI tie
OR 7) CAR tie + CHI win
OR 8) LAR win + SEA win/tie
OR 9) LAR win + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win
OR 10) LAR tie + SEA win
OR 11) LAR tie + SEA tie + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win
OR 12) SEA win + SF win/tie + GB win + CHI win

 

AFC

CIN is eliminated from AFC North title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) CIN loss
OR 2) CIN tie + PIT win

 

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) MIA loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win/tie
OR 2) MIA loss + BUF win/tie + IND win/tie
OR 3) MIA loss + HOU win + IND win
OR 4) MIA tie + BUF win + JAX win/tie + LAC win/tie + HOU win + IND win/tie
OR 5) MIA tie + BUF win + JAX win/tie + LAC win/tie + HOU tie + IND win

 

The KC elimination scenarios are still in progress

KC is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + HOU win
OR 2) KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie
OR 3) KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + IND win
OR 4) KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + IND win/tie

 

BUF is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with:
         1) BUF loss

 

PIT is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PIT loss/tie
OR 2) DEN win/tie
OR 3) NE win/tie
OR 4) LAC win + HOU loss/tie

 

HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) HOU loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) HOU loss + NE win/tie
OR 3) HOU tie + DEN win

 

IND is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) IND loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) IND loss + NE win/tie
OR 3) IND loss + LAC win
OR 4) IND tie + DEN win
OR 5) IND tie + NE win

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 15

We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.

The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).

If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
LAR 33% 15% 1% <1% 23% 14% 9% 6%
GB 16% 39% 3% <1% 7% 13% 15% 7%
PHI 1% 6% 56% 22% <1% <1% 1% 14%
TB <1% <1% 13% 42%     <1% 44%
SEA 27% 7% <1% <1% 28% 21% 12% 5%
SF 11% 6% <1% <1% 25% 25% 22% 11%
CHI 11% 20% 1% <1% 11% 15% 18% 22%
DET 2% 6% 2% <1% 6% 11% 21% 53%
CAR <1% 1% 17% 27% <1% <1% 1% 54%
DAL   <1% 7% 8% <1% <1% 1% 84%
MIN             <1% >99%
ATL               100%
ARI               100%
NO               100%
WAS               100%
NYG               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DEN 52% 24% 6% <1% 12% 4% 1% <1%
NE 33% 44% 8% <1% 8% 5% 1% <1%
JAX 5% 13% 37% 3% 7% 12% 15% 9%
PIT <1% <1% 4% 65% <1% <1% 1% 30%
LAC 5% 7% 5% <1% 36% 20% 14% 14%
BUF 3% 8% 3% <1% 24% 31% 19% 11%
HOU <1% 2% 22% 1% 8% 15% 24% 28%
IND <1% 2% 14% 1% 5% 12% 22% 44%
BAL     <1% 29% <1% <1% <1% 71%
KC         <1% 1% 3% 97%
MIA         <1% <1% 2% 98%
CIN       2%       98%
NYJ               100%
CLE               100%
LV               100%
TEN               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 15

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
LAR(2) SEA(2) DEN

Teams that control the 2 seed:
GB CHI(1) NE

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI JAX

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB CAR PIT BAL

Teams that control the 5 seed:
SF LAC

Teams that control the 6 seed:
BUF

Teams that control the 7 seed:
DET(E) HOU IND(3)

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL MIN MIA CIN KC

Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG WAS NO ARI ATL TEN LV CLE NYJ

 

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