Introduction (please read!)

With only 3 weeks to go, the playoff picture is becoming increasingly clear. With that said, we have at least one clear path for any team that has not yet clinched and is not yet eliminated to make the playoffs. This post is here to show one way for each team to make the playoffs. Note that the scenarios listed here are not exhaustive - there may be other ways for these teams to reach the playoffs. The scenarios listed here are the simplest way for each team (in terms of either needed help or avoiding tiebreaker silliness). There will only be one scenario listed for each team, as the goal of this post is to show the path of least resistance, not all the possibilities. With a few exceptions for teams close to clinching, every scenario begins with the team in question winning out. Also, in the interest of simplicity, we will be ignoring ties.

See the Playoff Picture entering week 16 here

NFC

NFC East

NYG & WAS have already been eliminated from playoff contention

PHI

  • PHI wins a game

 

DAL

  • DAL wins out
  • PHI loses out

 

Notes:
For PHI, the basic path to the playoffs is to win the division. If they win any game, DAL can’t catch them in record, and they’re in. (PHI can get a wildcard, but it’s much more convoluted)

For DAL, they have no path but to win the division, which requires them to win out & PHI to lose out or PHI will clinch on record.

 

NFC North

MIN has already been eliminated from playoff contention

CHI

  • CHI defeats DET week 18

 

GB

  • GB wins 2 games

 

DET

  • DET wins out
  • CHI loses week 16 or 17

 

Notes:
For CHI, the real breakdown is win 2 games or win a game and have DET lose a game. Since CHI plays DET week 18, they can accomplish the latter in a single game.

For GB, winning 2 games gets them in on pure record, no need to rely on anyone else

For DET, DET has a tough time with wildcard tiebreakers at this point, only being able to win tiebreakers against SEA or CHI at 11-6. Thus after winning out, one of these two needs to end at 11-6. Since DET winning out already involves a week 18 win over CHI, DET only needs one more loss by CHI to get in, which makes it the simplest path

 

NFC South

NO & ATL have already been eliminated from playoff contention

TB

  • TB wins 2 games

 

CAR

  • CAR sweeps TB weeks 16 & 18

 

Notes:
If TB & CAR split the series, then the tiebreaker ultimately comes down to common games, which TB already has clinched. What that means is that for TB, if they win one game (giving CAR a loss), and then win week 17, then even if CAR wins week 17 & defeats TB in the other game, the teams will be tied and TB takes the division. Thus, TB can just win any 2 games, given that one has to be against CAR, but CAR’s only way to guarantee their berth without relying on anyone else is to sweep TB and prevent them from winning those 2 games.

 

NFC West

LAR has already clinched a playoff berth

ARI has already been eliminated from playoff contention

 

SEA

  • SEA wins a game

 

SF

  • SF wins a game

 

Notes:
For SEA, any win will put them at a better record than DET can possibly get, which puts them in.

For SF, any win will guarantee SF cannot finish with a worse record than DET, and SF is guaranteed to win the tiebreaker against them. Thus the only theoretical way DET could pass SF is to win the division at 11-6. However, to accomplish that while avoiding SF clinching on pure record, all of GB, DET, and CHI would have to finish at 11-6 (or equivalent). However, GB would win the division in this case on head-to-head, so there is no way for DET to get past SF without GB or CHI finishing with a worse record than SF. In all cases, SF is safe.

 

AFC

AFC East

MIA & NYJ have already been eliminated from playoff contention

NE

  • NE wins a game

 

BUF

  • BUF wins 2 games

 

Notes:

NE winning 1 game & BUF winning 2 games puts them both in the playoffs on pure record.

 

AFC North

CLE & CIN have already been eliminated from playoff contention

PIT

  • PIT wins week 18 vs BAL

BAL

  • BAL wins out

 

Notes:
For PIT, a win vs BAL would be PIT’s 9th win and BAL’s 8th loss. Thus, the best that BAL could possibly do would be to tie PIT in record, and PIT would win the division on their sweep of BAL.

For BAL, if they win out, they’ll give PIT a 7th loss. Even if PIT wins their other non-BAL games, the 10-7 tie will end up going to BAL on common games.

 

AFC South

TEN is already eliminated from playoff contention

JAX

  • JAX wins week 17 vs IND

 

HOU

  • HOU wins week 18 vs IND

 

IND

  • IND wins out
  • HOU loses week 16 or 17

 

Notes:
For JAX, the simple thing they need is 2 wins or a win + IND loss. Since JAX plays IND in week 17, a win in that game will satisfy the latter condition by itself.

For HOU, it’s the same thing as JAX, a win + IND loss accomplished all in one fell swoop. And if IND ties HOU in record at 10-7, HOU will have the head to head sweep of IND.

For IND, winning out forces HOU to lose a game to them in week 18. If both HOU & IND were to win their other games and finish 11-6, HOU would finish ahead of IND on conference record, but if HOU loses another game on top of week 18, then IND finishes ahead of HOU on record alone.

 

AFC West

DEN has already clinched a playoff berth

KC & LV have already been eliminated from playoff contention

LAC

  • LAC wins week 17 vs HOU

 

Notes:
Because HOU & IND play week 18, if both already have 6 losses, then the loser of the game (or both if they tie) will have more than 6 losses, which would allow an 11 win LAC to get in on pure record. Since LAC plays HOU in week 17, a victory over them accomplishes getting LAC to 11 wins and HOU to 6 losses by itself.

 

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