There is one missing GB 1 seed elimination scenario involving some complex Strength of Victory and Strength of Schedule analysis. Everything else is complete.

Standings Entering Week 16

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LARx 11-3 6-3 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 CHI 10-4 6-3  
3 PHI 9-5 7-3  
4 TB 7-7 5-5 TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-5 vs 4-6).
5 SEA 11-3 6-3  
6 SF 10-4 8-2  
7 GB 9-4-1 7-2-1  
8 DET 8-6 5-5  
9 CAR 7-7 5-4  
10 DAL 6-7-1 3-6-1  
11 MINke 6-8 4-5  
12 ATLke 5-9 4-5  
13 NOke 4-10 4-7 NO wins the tiebreak over WAS on Conference Record (4-7 vs 2-7).
14 WASke 4-10 2-7  
15 ARIke 3-11 3-7  
16 NYGke 2-12 1-9  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DENx 12-2 7-2  
2 NE 11-3 6-3  
3 JAX 10-4 7-2  
4 PIT 8-6 7-3  
5 LAC 10-4 8-2 LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (8-2 vs 7-3).
6 BUF 10-4 7-3  
7 HOU 9-5 7-2  
8 IND 8-6 6-4  
9 BAL 7-7 5-5  
10 KCke 6-8 3-6 KC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Conference Record (3-6 vs 3-7).
11 MIAke 6-8 3-7  
12 CINke 4-10 4-6  
13 NYJke 3-11 2-8 NYJ wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head.
14 CLEke 3-11 2-7  
15 LVke 2-12 2-8 LV wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head.
16 TENke 2-12 1-9  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHI 9-5 2-2  
2 DAL 6-7-1 3-1  
3 WASke 4-10 2-1  
4 NYGke 2-12 1-4  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CHI 10-4 1-3  
2 GB 9-4-1 4-0  
3 DET 8-6 1-3  
4 MINke 6-8 2-2  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 TB 7-7 2-2 TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-5 vs 4-6).
2 CAR 7-7 2-2  
3 ATLke 5-9 2-3  
4 NOke 4-10 3-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 LARx 11-3 3-1 LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0).
2 SEA 11-3 2-2  
3 SF 10-4 4-1  
4 ARIke 3-11 0-5  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NE 11-3 3-1  
2 BUF 10-4 3-2  
3 MIAke 6-8 3-2  
4 NYJke 3-11 0-4  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 8-6 3-1  
2 BAL 7-7 3-2  
3 CINke 4-10 3-2  
4 CLEke 3-11 0-4  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAX 10-4 3-1  
2 HOU 9-5 4-1  
3 IND 8-6 2-2  
4 TENke 2-12 0-5  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DENx 12-2 3-1  
2 LAC 10-4 5-0  
3 KCke 6-8 1-3  
4 LVke 2-12 0-5  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, ARI, WAS, NO, ATL, MIN, DAL, CAR, DET, TB
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ, CIN, MIA, KC, BAL, IND, PIT

Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 16

NFC

PHI clinches the NFC East division title with:
         1) PHI win
OR 2) PHI tie + DAL tie
OR 3) DAL loss

 

GB clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) GB win + DET loss/tie
OR 2) GB tie + DET loss

 

CHI clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) CHI win + DET loss/tie
OR 2) CHI tie + DET loss

 

SEA clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) SEA win/tie
OR 2) DET loss/tie

 

SF clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) SF win
OR 2) SF tie + DET tie
OR 3) DET loss

 

 

AFC

DEN clinches the AFC West division title with:
         1) DEN win + LAC loss/tie
OR 2) DEN tie + LAC loss

 

DEN clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) DEN win + LAC loss/tie + NE loss + BUF loss/tie

 

NE clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) NE win/tie
OR 2) IND loss/tie
OR 3) HOU loss/tie

 

BUF clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) BUF win + IND loss/tie
OR 2) BUF win + HOU loss/tie
OR 3) BUF tie + IND loss
OR 4) BUF tie + HOU loss

 

JAX clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) JAX win + IND loss/tie
OR 2) JAX win + HOU loss/tie
OR 3) JAX tie + IND loss
OR 4) JAX tie + IND tie + HOU loss

 

LAC clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) LAC win + IND loss/tie
OR 2) LAC win + HOU loss/tie
OR 3) LAC tie + IND loss
OR 4) LAC tie + IND tie + HOU loss

 

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 16

NFC

DAL is eliminated from NFC East title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) DAL loss
OR 2) DAL tie + PHI tie
OR 3) PHI win

 

DET is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:
         1) DET loss
OR 2) DET tie + GB win
OR 3) DET tie + CHI win

 

DET is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DET loss + CHI/ GB tie

 

PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) PHI loss
OR 2) PHI tie + LAR win
OR 3) PHI tie + SEA win
OR 4) PHI tie + SF win/tie
OR 5) PHI tie + CHI win
OR 6) CHI win + SEA win + SF win

 

GB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) GB loss
OR 2) GB tie + SEA win + SF win + PHI loss/tie

 

 

AFC

IND is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) IND loss + JAX win/tie
OR 2) IND tie + JAX win

 

LAC is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with:
         1) LAC loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) LAC tie + DEN win

 

NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NE loss + DEN win

 

BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) BUF loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) BUF loss + LAC win
OR 3) BUF tie + DEN win

 

JAX is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) JAX loss

 

HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) HOU loss/tie
OR 2) DEN win/tie

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 16

We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.

The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).

If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
LAR 41% 8% 1%   31% 14% 4%  
CHI 13% 44% 2%   4% 9% 16% 11%
PHI 1% 8% 80% 10%     <1% 2%
TB     2% 59%       39%
SEA 30% 3% <1%   34% 27% 6% <1%
SF 13% 3% <1%   29% 34% 19% 1%
GB 2% 31% 4%   2% 14% 38% 9%
DET   2% 2%     2% 17% 78%
CAR     9% 31%       61%
DAL     1% <1%       98%
MIN               100%
ATL               100%
NO               100%
WAS               100%
ARI               100%
NYG               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DEN 71% 11% 3%   12% 3% <1%  
NE 9% 45% 17% <1% 10% 14% 4% <1%
JAX 9% 18% 32% 2% 8% 13% 13% 6%
PIT   <1% 4% 62% <1% <1% 1% 33%
LAC 8% 5% 3%   45% 20% 15% 6%
BUF 3% 15% 11% <1% 18% 31% 20% 3%
HOU <1% 5% 25% 1% 7% 15% 32% 14%
IND   <1% 6% 1% 1% 4% 15% 72%
BAL       34%     <1% 66%
KC               100%
MIA               100%
CIN               100%
NYJ               100%
CLE               100%
LV               100%
TEN               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 16

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
LAR SEA DEN

Teams that control the 2 seed:
GB CHI NE

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI JAX

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB CAR PIT BAL

Teams that control the 5 seed:
SF LAC

Teams that control the 6 seed:
BUF

Teams that control the 7 seed:
HOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL DET(7) IND(7)

Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG ARI WAS NO ATL MIN
TEN LV CLE NYJ CIN MIA KC

 

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