Standings Entering Week 17

                                                                         
        NFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SEAx 12-3 7-3  
2 CHIx 11-4 7-3  
3 PHIxy 10-5 8-3  
4 CAR 8-7 6-4  
5 SFx 11-4 8-2 SF wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (4-1 vs 3-2).
6 LARx 11-4 6-4  
7 GB 9-5-1 7-3-1  
8 DETk 8-7 5-5  
9 MINke 7-8 5-5 MIN wins the tiebreak over TB on Conference Record (5-5 vs 5-6).
10 TB 7-8 5-6  
11 DALke 6-8-1 3-6-1  
12 ATLke 6-9 5-5  
13 NOke 5-10 4-7  
14 WASke 4-11 2-8  
15 ARIke 3-12 3-8  
16 NYGke 2-13 1-10  
         
        AFC    Record    Conf. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DENx 12-3 7-3 DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (6-0 vs 4-1).
2 NEx 12-3 7-3  
3 JAXx 11-4 8-2  
4 PIT 9-6 7-3  
5 LACx 11-4 8-2 LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (8-2 vs 8-3).
6 BUFx 11-4 8-3  
7 HOU 10-5 8-2  
8 INDk 8-7 6-4  
9 BAL 7-8 5-6  
10 KCke 6-9 3-7 KC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Conference Record (3-7 vs 3-8).
11 MIAke 6-9 3-8  
12 CINke 5-10 5-6  
13 NYJke 3-12 2-8 CLE drops out of the tiebreak with NYJ/TEN on Head-to-Head Sweep. NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Conference Record (2-8 vs 2-9).
14 TENke 3-12 2-9 TEN wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head.
15 CLEke 3-12 2-8  
16 LVke 2-13 2-9  
                                                                   
NFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PHIxy 10-5 3-2  
2 DALke 6-8-1 3-1  
3 WASke 4-11 2-2  
4 NYGke 2-13 1-4  
         
NFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CHIx 11-4 2-3  
2 GB 9-5-1 4-1  
3 DETk 8-7 1-3  
4 MINke 7-8 2-2  
         
NFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 CAR 8-7 3-2  
2 TB 7-8 2-3  
3 ATLke 6-9 2-3  
4 NOke 5-10 3-2  
         
NFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 SEAx 12-3 3-2  
2 SFx 11-4 4-1 SF wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (4-1 vs 3-2).
3 LARx 11-4 3-2  
4 ARIke 3-12 0-5  
         
AFC  East   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 NEx 12-3 3-1  
2 BUFx 11-4 3-2  
3 MIAke 6-9 3-2  
4 NYJke 3-12 0-4  
         
AFC  North   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 PIT 9-6 3-1  
2 BAL 7-8 3-2  
3 CINke 5-10 3-2  
4 CLEke 3-12 0-4  
         
AFC  South   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 JAXx 11-4 3-1  
2 HOU 10-5 4-1  
3 INDk 8-7 2-2  
4 TENke 3-12 0-5  
         
AFC  West   Record   Div. Rec.   Explanation 
1 DENx 12-3 3-1  
2 LACx 11-4 5-0  
3 KCke 6-9 1-3  
4 LVke 2-13 0-5  

x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, ARI, WAS, NO, ATL, DAL, TB, MIN, DET, GB, CAR, PHI
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: LV, CLE, TEN, NYJ, CIN, MIA, KC, BAL, IND, PIT

Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFC

SEA clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) SEA win + LAR loss/tie + SF tie

 

SEA clinches the NFC West division title with:
         1) SEA win + LAR loss/tie + SF loss/tie
OR 2) SEA tie + LAR loss + SF loss

 

CHI clinches the NFC North division title with:
         1) CHI win
OR 2) CHI tie + GB tie
OR 3) GB loss

 

CAR clinches the NFC South division title with:
         1) CAR win + TB loss/tie
OR 2) CAR tie + TB loss

 

GB clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) GB win/tie
OR 2) DET loss/tie

 

 

AFC

DEN clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:
         1) DEN win + NE loss + LAC loss/tie + JAX loss/tie + BUF loss/tie

 

DEN clinches the AFC West division title with:
         1) DEN win + LAC loss/tie
OR 2) DEN tie + LAC loss

 

NE clinches the AFC East division title with:
         1) NE win + BUF loss/tie
OR 2) NE tie + BUF loss

 

JAX clinches the AFC South division title with:
         1) JAX win + HOU loss/tie
OR 2) JAX tie + HOU loss

 

PIT clinches the AFC North division title with:
         1) PIT win/tie
OR 2) BAL loss/tie

 

HOU clinches a playoff berth with:
         1) HOU win/tie
OR 2) IND loss/tie
OR 3) TB win + SF win + LAR win + BUF win + BAL win + KC win

 

 

Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17

NFC

DET is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) DET loss/tie
OR 2) GB win/tie

 

TB is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) TB loss + CAR win/tie
OR 2) TB tie + CAR win

 

GB is knocked out of NFC North title contention with:
         1) GB loss
OR 2) GB tie + CHI tie
OR 3) CHI win

 

LAR is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with:
         1) LAR loss
OR 2) LAR tie + SEA win
OR 3) LAR tie + SEA tie + SF tie
OR 4) LAR tie + SF win
OR 5) SEA win + SF win

 

SF is knocked out of NFC West title contention with:
         1) SF loss + SEA win/tie
OR 2) SF tie + SEA win

 

SF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) SF loss
OR 2) SF tie + SEA win

 

CHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) CHI loss
OR 2) CHI tie + SEA win/tie

 

 

AFC

BAL is eliminated from AFC North title contention AND playoff contention with:
         1) BAL loss/tie
OR 2) PIT win/tie

 

IND is eliminated from playoff contention with:
         1) IND loss/tie
OR 2) HOU win/tie
OR 3) TB win + SF win + LAR win + BUF win + BAL win + KC win

 

BUF is knocked out of AFC East title contention with:
         1) BUF loss + NE win/tie
OR 2) BUF tie + NE win

 

BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) BUF loss + NE win/tie
OR 2) BUF loss + DEN win/tie
OR 3) BUF loss + LAC win/tie
OR 4) BUF loss + JAX win/tie
OR 5) BUF loss + TEN win/tie
OR 6) BUF loss + ARI win
OR 7) BUF loss + ARI tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (GB, SF, LV)
OR 8) BUF loss + ARI tie + 1 combined wins from (DAL, MIN, SEA, MIA, PIT)
OR 9) BUF loss + LV win
OR 10) BUF loss + LV tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, GB, MIN, SEA, MIA, PIT)
OR 11) BUF loss + LV tie + SF win
OR 12) BUF loss + GB win + 0.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, MIN, SEA, SF, MIA, PIT)
OR 13) BUF loss + GB tie + SF win
OR 14) BUF loss + GB tie + 1 combined wins from (DAL, MIN, SEA, MIA, PIT)
OR 15) BUF loss + 1.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, MIN, SEA, MIA, PIT)
OR 16) BUF tie + DEN win
OR 17) BUF tie + NE win
OR 18) BUF tie + DEN tie + LAC tie
OR 19) BUF tie + LAC win
OR 20) DEN win + LAC win

 

HOU is knocked out of AFC South title contention with:
         1) HOU loss + JAX win/tie
OR 2) HOU tie + JAX win

 

HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) HOU loss/tie
OR 2) DEN win/tie
OR 3) NE win/tie

 

LAC is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
         1) LAC loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) LAC tie + DEN win

 

LAC is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) LAC loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) LAC loss + NE win/tie
OR 3) LAC loss + JAX win + BUF win/tie
OR 4) LAC loss + JAX win + 5 or more combined wins from (NYG, WAS, DET, CAR, TB, ARI, SF, CLE)
OR 5) LAC tie + DEN win
OR 6) LAC tie + NE win

 

NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) NE loss + DEN win
OR 2) NE loss + DEN tie + LAC win

 

JAX is knocked out of 1 seed contention with:
         1) JAX loss + DEN win/tie
OR 2) JAX loss + NE win/tie
OR 3) JAX loss + LAC win/tie
OR 4) JAX tie + NE win
OR 5) JAX tie + DEN win
OR 6) JAX tie + DEN tie + LAC win

 

 

Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17

We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.

The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).

If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.

NFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
SEA 44% 9%     25% 21%    
CHI 23% 66% 5%     2% 5%  
PHI   9% 85% 6%        
CAR     6% 60%       34%
SF 25% 7% 2%   30% 32% 5%  
LAR 8% 5%     44% 37% 6%  
GB   5% 2%   2% 8% 78% 6%
DET             6% 94%
MIN               100%
TB       34%       66%
DAL               100%
ATL               100%
NO               100%
WAS               100%
ARI               100%
NYG               100%

 

AFC

Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game

            1 seed         2 seed         3 seed         4 seed         5 seed         6 seed         7 seed     Miss Playoffs
DEN 41% 18% 4%   21% 14% 2%  
NE 23% 33% 13%   14% 15% 2%  
JAX 14% 16% 38% 2% 9% 12% 10%  
PIT     2% 86%       12%
LAC 14% 13% 10%   27% 16% 20%  
BUF 7% 14% 10%   22% 28% 20%  
HOU 1% 6% 24%   7% 15% 41% 6%
IND             6% 94%
BAL       12%       88%
KC               100%
MIA               100%
CIN               100%
NYJ               100%
TEN               100%
CLE               100%
LV               100%

 

Seed Control Entering Week 17

The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.

Teams that control the 1 seed:
SEA SF(5) DEN

Teams that control the 2 seed:
CHI NE

Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI JAX LAC(5)

Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB CAR PIT

Teams that control the 5 seed:
LAR(1) BUF(6)

Teams that control the 6 seed:
None

Teams that control the 7 seed:
GB(3) HOU

Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DET BAL(4) IND

Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG ARI WAS NO ATL DAL MIN
LV CLE TEN NYJ CIN MIA KC

 

Draft Top 10 Entering Week 17

                                                                                                                       
Pick Team Record Strength Of Schedule      
1 NYG 2-13 126-97-2 (.564)      
2 LV 2-13 130-94-1 (.580)      
3 CLE 3-12 111-113-1 (.496)      
4 NYJ 3-12 114-110-1 (.509)      
5 TEN 3-12 130-95 (.578)      
6 ARI 3-12 130-93-2 (.582)      
7 WAS 4-11 110-113-2 (.493)      
8 NO 5-10 118-107 (.524)      
9 CIN 5-10 125-99-1 (.558)      
10 MIA 6-9 106-119 (.471)      

NYG can clinch the 1st overall pick this week. The specific scenarios will be delineated later this week.

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