Playoff Picture Entering Week 10 2025
Standings Entering Week 10
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 PHI |
6-2 | 5-1 | SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1). PHI wins the tiebreak over TB/SEA on Conference Record (5-1 vs 4-2/3-2). |
| 2 |
 TB |
6-2 | 4-2 | SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1). TB wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head. |
| 3 |
 SEA |
6-2 | 3-2 | SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1). |
| 4 |
 GB |
5-2-1 | 3-1-1 | |
| 5 |
 LAR |
6-2 | 1-2 | |
| 6 |
 SF |
6-3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 |
 DET |
5-3 | 2-2 | DET wins the tiebreak over CHI on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 8 |
 CHI |
5-3 | 3-2 | |
| 9 |
 CAR |
5-4 | 3-1 | |
| 10 |
 MIN |
4-4 | 2-2 | |
| 11 |
 DAL |
3-5-1 | 2-4-1 | |
| 12 |
 ARI |
3-5 | 3-3 | ARI wins the tiebreak over ATL on Conference Record (3-3 vs 2-3). |
| 13 |
 ATL |
3-5 | 2-3 | |
| 14 |
 WAS |
3-6 | 1-5 | |
| 15 |
 NYG |
2-7 | 1-5 | |
| 16 |
 NO |
1-8 | 1-6 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 IND |
7-2 | 6-1 | IND wins the tiebreak over NE/DEN on Conference Record (6-1 vs 4-2/4-2). |
| 2 |
 NE |
7-2 | 4-2 | NE wins the tiebreak over DEN on Strength of Victory (20-40 vs 19-40-1). |
| 3 |
 DEN |
7-2 | 4-2 | |
| 4 |
 PIT |
5-3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 |
 BUF |
6-2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 |
 LAC |
6-3 | 5-1 | |
| 7 |
 JAX |
5-3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 |
 KC |
5-4 | 2-3 | |
| 9 |
 HOU |
3-5 | 2-2 | HOU wins the tiebreak over BAL on Head-to-Head. |
| 10 |
 BAL |
3-5 | 2-3 | |
| 11 |
 CIN |
3-6 | 3-2 | |
| 12 |
 LV |
2-6 | 2-4 | LV wins the tiebreak over CLE on Conference Record (2-4 vs 1-4). |
| 13 |
 CLE |
2-6 | 1-4 | |
| 14 |
 MIA |
2-7 | 1-6 | |
| 15 |
 NYJ |
1-7 | 1-4 | |
| 16 |
 TEN |
1-8 | 0-7 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PHI |
6-2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 |
DAL |
3-5-1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
WAS |
3-6 | 1-1 | |
| 4 |
NYG |
2-7 | 1-3 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
GB |
5-2-1 | 1-0 | |
| 2 |
DET |
5-3 | 1-2 | DET wins the tiebreak over CHI on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 3 |
CHI |
5-3 | 0-2 | |
| 4 |
MIN |
4-4 | 2-0 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
TB |
6-2 | 2-0 | |
| 2 |
CAR |
5-4 | 1-0 | |
| 3 |
ATL |
3-5 | 0-2 | |
| 4 |
NO |
1-8 | 0-1 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
SEA |
6-2 | 1-1 | SEA wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (1-1 vs 0-1). |
| 2 |
LAR |
6-2 | 0-1 | |
| 3 |
SF |
6-3 | 3-0 | |
| 4 |
ARI |
3-5 | 0-2 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
NE |
7-2 | 2-0 | |
| 2 |
BUF |
6-2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
MIA |
2-7 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
NYJ |
1-7 | 0-2 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PIT |
5-3 | 1-1 | |
| 2 |
BAL |
3-5 | 1-0 | |
| 3 |
CIN |
3-6 | 2-0 | |
| 4 |
CLE |
2-6 | 0-3 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
IND |
7-2 | 2-0 | |
| 2 |
JAX |
5-3 | 1-0 | |
| 3 |
HOU |
3-5 | 1-1 | |
| 4 |
TEN |
1-8 | 0-3 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DEN |
7-2 | 0-1 | |
| 2 |
LAC |
6-3 | 3-0 | |
| 3 |
KC |
5-4 | 1-1 | |
| 4 |
LV |
2-6 | 0-2 |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 10
NFC
|
NO is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
NO loss |
AFC
There are no Elimination Scenarios in the AFC for week 10
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 10
Now that we have some teams with a chance to be knocked out of some seedlines, rather than just list the possible seeds, we’re going to approximate the percentage of possible outcomes that result in each seed’s outcomes. Note that this is not a prediction. This is an estimate of the percentage of possible results that yield each seed. Since we only care about possibilities, we approximate this by running 1 million simulations with all 3 results being equally likely - home win, away win, and tie. If an entry is blank, that means the seed is not possible for that team. Also note that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PHI |
20% | 20% | 22% | 31% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
|
TB |
17% | 17% | 21% | 21% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 14% |
|
SEA |
15% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 20% | 14% | 10% | 20% |
|
GB |
10% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 29% |
|
LAR |
16% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 21% |
|
SF |
10% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 23% |
|
DET |
5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 46% |
|
CHI |
5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 46% |
|
CAR |
2% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 54% |
|
MIN |
1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 8% | 72% |
|
DAL |
<1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 92% |
|
ARI |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 92% |
|
ATL |
<1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 91% |
|
WAS |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 96% |
|
NYG |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
|
NO |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
IND |
27% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 5% |
|
NE |
21% | 20% | 17% | 6% | 14% | 11% | 7% | 5% |
|
DEN |
21% | 20% | 16% | 4% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 6% |
|
PIT |
4% | 8% | 15% | 48% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 21% |
|
BUF |
13% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 25% | 18% | 11% | 10% |
|
LAC |
7% | 9% | 10% | 3% | 19% | 18% | 15% | 18% |
|
JAX |
5% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 16% | 19% | 30% |
|
KC |
1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 12% | 18% | 54% |
|
HOU |
<1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 87% |
|
BAL |
<1% | <1% | 1% | 14% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 82% |
|
CIN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 7% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 90% |
|
LV |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 98% |
|
CLE |
<1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 96% |
|
MIA |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
|
NYJ |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
|
TEN |
<1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
Seed Control Entering Week 10
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
PHI
Teams that control the 2 seed:
LAR
TB
BUF
IND
Teams that control the 3 seed:
SEA
SF
GB
NE
JAX
DEN
LAC
Teams that control the 4 seed:
DET
CHI
MIN
CAR
PIT
BAL
KC
Teams that control the 5 seed:
None
Teams that control the 6 seed:
None
Teams that control the 7 seed:
HOU
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
WAS
NYG
ATL
NO
ARI
MIA
NYJ
CIN
CLE
TEN
LV
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