Playoff Picture Entering Week 15 2025
All scenarios should be complete now.
Standings Entering Week 15
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 LAR |
10-3 | 5-3 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 2 |
 GB |
9-3-1 | 7-2-1 | |
| 3 |
 PHI |
8-5 | 7-3 | |
| 4 |
 TB |
7-6 | 5-4 | TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-4 vs 4-5). |
| 5 |
 SEA |
10-3 | 6-3 | |
| 6 |
 SF |
9-4 | 8-2 | SF wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (8-2 vs 6-3). |
| 7 |
 CHI |
9-4 | 6-3 | |
| 8 |
 DET |
8-5 | 5-4 | |
| 9 |
 CAR |
7-6 | 5-3 | |
| 10 |
 DAL |
6-6-1 | 3-5-1 | |
| 11 |
 MINk |
5-8 | 3-5 | |
| 12 |
 ATLke |
4-9 | 3-5 | |
| 13 |
 ARIke |
3-10 | 3-7 | WAS drops out of the tiebreak with NO/ARI on Conference Record (1-7 vs 3-7). ARI wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head. |
| 14 |
 NOke |
3-10 | 3-7 | NO wins the tiebreak over WAS on Conference Record (3-7 vs 1-7). |
| 15 |
 WASke |
3-10 | 1-7 | |
| 16 |
 NYGke |
2-11 | 1-8 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 DEN |
11-2 | 7-2 | DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-2). |
| 2 |
 NE |
11-2 | 6-2 | |
| 3 |
 JAX |
9-4 | 6-2 | |
| 4 |
 PIT |
7-6 | 6-3 | |
| 5 |
 LAC |
9-4 | 7-2 | LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-3). |
| 6 |
 BUF |
9-4 | 6-3 | |
| 7 |
 HOU |
8-5 | 7-2 | HOU wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 8 |
 IND |
8-5 | 6-4 | |
| 9 |
 BAL |
6-7 | 4-5 | BAL wins the tiebreak over KC/MIA on Conference Record (4-5 vs 3-5/3-6). |
| 10 |
 KCk |
6-7 | 3-5 | KC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-6). |
| 11 |
 MIAk |
6-7 | 3-6 | |
| 12 |
 CIN |
4-9 | 4-5 | |
| 13 |
 NYJke |
3-10 | 2-7 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head. |
| 14 |
 CLEke |
3-10 | 2-7 | |
| 15 |
 LVke |
2-11 | 2-8 | LV wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head. |
| 16 |
 TENke |
2-11 | 1-9 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PHI |
8-5 | 2-2 | |
| 2 |
DAL |
6-6-1 | 3-1 | |
| 3 |
WASke |
3-10 | 1-1 | |
| 4 |
NYGke |
2-11 | 1-3 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
GB |
9-3-1 | 4-0 | |
| 2 |
CHI |
9-4 | 1-3 | |
| 3 |
DET |
8-5 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
MINk |
5-8 | 2-2 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
TB |
7-6 | 2-1 | TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-4 vs 4-5). |
| 2 |
CAR |
7-6 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
ATLke |
4-9 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
NOke |
3-10 | 2-2 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
LAR |
10-3 | 3-1 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 2 |
SEA |
10-3 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
SF |
9-4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 |
ARIke |
3-10 | 0-5 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
NE |
11-2 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
BUF |
9-4 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
MIAk |
6-7 | 3-2 | |
| 4 |
NYJke |
3-10 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PIT |
7-6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
BAL |
6-7 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
CIN |
4-9 | 3-1 | |
| 4 |
CLEke |
3-10 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
JAX |
9-4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
HOU |
8-5 | 4-1 | HOU wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 3 |
IND |
8-5 | 2-2 | |
| 4 |
TENke |
2-11 | 0-5 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DEN |
11-2 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
LAC |
9-4 | 4-0 | |
| 3 |
KCk |
6-7 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
LVke |
2-11 | 0-5 |
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, WAS, NO, ARI, ATL, MIN, DAL
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ, CIN, MIA, KC, BAL
Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 15
NFC
|
LAR clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
LAR win |
AFC
|
NE clinches the AFC East division title with: |
| 1) |
NE win |
|
NE clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
NE win |
|
| OR | 2) |
NE tie +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
NE tie +
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 4) |
NE tie +
JAX loss |
| OR | 5) |
NE tie +
LAC loss |
| OR | 6) |
HOU loss +
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
HOU tie +
IND loss |
|
DEN clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
DEN win |
|
| OR | 2) |
DEN tie +
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
DEN tie +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR | 4) |
DEN tie +
LAC loss |
| OR | 5) |
DEN tie +
JAX loss |
| OR | 6) |
HOU loss +
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
HOU tie +
IND loss |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 15
NFC
|
MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
MIN loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
DET win/tie |
|
DET is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
DET loss |
|
PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
PHI loss +
LAR win +
SEA win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
PHI loss +
LAR win +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
| OR | 3) |
PHI loss +
LAR tie +
SEA win |
| OR | 4) |
PHI loss +
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
| OR | 5) |
PHI loss +
SEA win +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
|
TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
TB loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
TB tie +
LAR win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
TB tie +
SEA win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
TB tie +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
TB tie +
GB win/tie |
| OR | 6) |
TB tie +
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 7) |
LAR win +
SEA win/tie |
| OR | 8) |
LAR win +
SF win +
GB win |
| OR | 9) |
LAR win +
SF win +
GB tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 10) |
LAR win +
SF tie +
GB win/tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 11) |
LAR tie +
SEA win |
| OR | 12) |
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
SF win +
GB win |
| OR | 13) |
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
SF tie +
GB win/tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 14) |
LAR tie +
SF win +
GB win/tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 15) |
SEA win +
SF win +
GB win |
| OR | 16) |
SEA win +
SF win +
GB tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 17) |
SEA win +
SF tie +
GB win/tie +
CHI win |
|
CAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
CAR loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
CAR tie +
SEA win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
CAR tie +
LAR win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
CAR tie +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
CAR tie +
GB win |
| OR | 6) |
CAR tie +
GB tie +
CHI tie |
| OR | 7) |
CAR tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 8) |
LAR win +
SEA win/tie |
| OR | 9) |
LAR win +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
| OR | 10) |
LAR tie +
SEA win |
| OR | 11) |
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
| OR | 12) |
SEA win +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
AFC
|
CIN is eliminated from AFC North title contention AND playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
CIN loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
CIN tie +
PIT win |
|
MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
MIA loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
MIA loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
MIA loss +
HOU win +
IND win |
| OR | 4) |
MIA tie +
BUF win +
JAX win/tie +
LAC win/tie +
HOU win +
IND win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
MIA tie +
BUF win +
JAX win/tie +
LAC win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND win |
|
KC is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
JAX win/tie +
HOU win |
|
| OR | 2) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
JAX win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie |
| OR | 3) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
JAX win/tie +
IND win |
| OR | 4) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
IND win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR, CIN) |
| OR | 6) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
MIA loss/tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 7) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
MIA loss/tie +
BAL tie + CAR win |
| OR | 8) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
MIA tie +
BAL loss + 1 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 9) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie + 4.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR, CIN) |
| OR | 10) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie + GB win + CAR win + SF win + LAR win + NYG win + TB win |
| OR | 11) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA loss/tie + 3.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 12) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA loss/tie +
BAL tie + CAR win + 2 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 13) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA loss/tie +
BAL tie + CAR win + PHI tie + 1.5 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 14) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA loss/tie +
BAL tie + CAR tie + 2.5 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 15) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA tie +
BAL loss + 3 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 16) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win + 4.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR, CIN) |
| OR | 17) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win + GB win + CAR win + SF win + LAR win + 1.5 or more combined wins from (NYG, TB) |
| OR | 18) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win + PHI tie + CAR win + 2.5 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR) + NYG win + TB win |
| OR | 19) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win + CIN tie + CAR win + 2.5 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR) + NYG win + TB win |
| OR | 20) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win +
MIA loss/tie + 3.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 21) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win +
MIA loss/tie +
BAL tie + CAR win + 2 combined wins from (PHI, GB, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 22) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win +
MIA loss/tie +
BAL tie + CAR tie + PHI tie + 2 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 23) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win +
MIA loss/tie +
BAL tie + CAR tie + 2.5 combined wins from (GB, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 24) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win +
MIA loss/tie +
BAL tie + GB win + SF win + LAR win |
| OR | 25) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win +
MIA tie +
BAL loss + 3 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 26) |
KC loss +
BUF win +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA tie +
BAL loss + PHI win + GB win + 0.5 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win |
| OR | 27) |
KC loss +
BUF tie +
HOU win +
MIA tie +
BAL tie + GB win + MIN win + CLE win |
| OR | 28) |
KC loss +
BUF tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA loss +
BAL loss + PHI win + GB win + 1 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win |
| OR | 29) |
KC loss +
BUF tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA tie +
BAL loss + PHI win + GB win + 0.5 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + 1.5 or more combined wins from (MIN, CLE) |
| OR | 30) |
KC loss +
BUF tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA tie +
BAL loss + 1.5 combined wins from (PHI, GB) + 1 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win |
| OR | 31) |
KC loss +
BUF tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie +
MIA tie +
BAL tie + GB win + 2 combined wins from (PHI, CAR, SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win |
| OR | 32) |
KC loss +
BUF tie +
IND win +
MIA tie +
BAL loss + PHI win + GB win + 0.5 combined wins from (SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win |
| OR | 33) |
KC loss +
BUF tie +
IND win +
MIA tie +
BAL tie + GB win + 2 combined wins from (PHI, CAR, SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win |
| OR | 34) |
KC tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX win |
| OR | 35) |
KC tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX tie +
BAL loss |
| OR | 36) |
KC tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX tie +
BAL tie +
PIT loss |
| OR | 37) |
KC tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX tie +
BAL tie +
PIT tie + 3 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 38) |
KC tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX tie +
BAL tie + 3.5 combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 39) |
KC tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX tie +
PIT loss + 3 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 40) |
KC tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX tie +
PIT tie + 3.5 combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 41) |
KC tie +
BUF win +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX tie + 4 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 42) |
KC tie +
BUF tie +
HOU win +
IND win +
JAX tie +
MIA loss + PHI win + GB win + TB win + SF win + LAR win + CIN win |
The italicized portions in these scenarios are results that are solely for Strength of Victory purposes.
Scenarios 5-6, 8-9, 11, 15-16, & 37-41 are for JAX clinching Strength of Victory over KC.
Scenarios 7, 12-14, & 20-24 are for JAX clinching a tie in Strength of Victory with KC while BAL cannot reach that same Strength of Victory.
Scenarios 10 & 17-19 are for JAX clinching a tie in Strength of Victory with KC while MIA cannot reach that same Strength of Victory.
Scenarios 26-33 are for a guarantee that at least one of JAX or BAL will end up with a better Strength of Victory (Though neither individually has it clinched).
Scenario 42 is for a guarantee that at least one of JAX or BUF will end up with a better Strength of Victory (Though neither individually has it clinched).
|
BUF is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with: |
| 1) |
BUF loss |
|
PIT is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
PIT loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DEN win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
NE win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
LAC win +
HOU loss/tie |
|
HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
HOU loss +
DEN win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
HOU loss +
NE win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
HOU tie +
DEN win |
|
IND is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
IND loss +
DEN win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
IND loss +
NE win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
IND loss +
LAC win |
| OR | 4) |
IND tie +
DEN win |
| OR | 5) |
IND tie +
NE win |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 15
We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.
The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).
If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LAR |
33% | 15% | 1% | <1% | 23% | 14% | 9% | 6% |
|
GB |
16% | 39% | 3% | <1% | 7% | 13% | 15% | 7% |
|
PHI |
1% | 6% | 56% | 22% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 14% |
|
TB |
<1% | <1% | 13% | 42% | <1% | 44% | ||
|
SEA |
27% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 5% |
|
SF |
11% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 25% | 25% | 22% | 11% |
|
CHI |
11% | 20% | 1% | <1% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 22% |
|
DET |
2% | 6% | 2% | <1% | 6% | 11% | 21% | 53% |
|
CAR |
<1% | 1% | 17% | 27% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 54% |
|
DAL |
<1% | 7% | 8% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 84% | |
|
MIN |
<1% | >99% | ||||||
|
ATL |
100% | |||||||
|
ARI |
100% | |||||||
|
NO |
100% | |||||||
|
WAS |
100% | |||||||
|
NYG |
100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DEN |
52% | 24% | 6% | <1% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
|
NE |
33% | 44% | 8% | <1% | 8% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
|
JAX |
5% | 13% | 37% | 3% | 7% | 12% | 15% | 9% |
|
PIT |
<1% | <1% | 4% | 65% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 30% |
|
LAC |
5% | 7% | 5% | <1% | 36% | 20% | 14% | 14% |
|
BUF |
3% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 24% | 31% | 19% | 11% |
|
HOU |
<1% | 2% | 22% | 1% | 8% | 15% | 24% | 28% |
|
IND |
<1% | 2% | 14% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 22% | 44% |
|
BAL |
<1% | 29% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 71% | ||
|
KC |
<1% | 1% | 3% | 97% | ||||
|
MIA |
<1% | <1% | 2% | 98% | ||||
|
CIN |
2% | 98% | ||||||
|
NYJ |
100% | |||||||
|
CLE |
100% | |||||||
|
LV |
100% | |||||||
|
TEN |
100% |
Seed Control Entering Week 15
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
LAR(2)
SEA(2)
DEN
Teams that control the 2 seed:
GB
CHI(1)
NE
Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI
JAX
Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB
CAR
PIT
BAL
Teams that control the 5 seed:
SF
LAC
Teams that control the 6 seed:
BUF
Teams that control the 7 seed:
DET(E)
HOU
IND(3)
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
MIN
MIA
CIN
KC
Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG
WAS
NO
ARI
ATL
TEN
LV
CLE
NYJ
Please consider supporting us!
We have a Patreon to allow you to donate to cover our costs, which in turn allows us to never put ads on the site again. Any donation is greatly appreciated, both by us and all visitors to the site! If you are unable to or do not wish to donate, that’s totally fine, too. You can help the site by sharing it on social media, and even if you don’t want to do that, just coming to the site helps us out, too!