NFL Playoff Scenarios

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Playoff Picture entering Week 18 2025

Dec 29, 2025 | Week 18, 2025 | NFL Playoff Scenarios

Standings entering Week 18
Standard-Style Clinching Scenarios
- NFC
- AFC
Seed Possibilities
NFC Scenarios by seed
AFC Scenarios by seed
Draft top 10
First Overall Draft Pick Scenarios
Contact and Support Us


	NFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	SEA^x	13-3	8-3
2	CHI^xy	11-5	7-4	CHI wins the tiebreak over PHI on Head-to-Head.
3	PHI^xy	11-5	8-3
4	CAR	8-8	6-5
5	SF^x	12-4	9-2
6	LAR^kx	11-5	6-5
7	GB^kx	9-6-1	7-3-1
8	MIN^ke	8-8	6-5	MIN wins the tiebreak over DET on Head-to-Head (2-0).
9	DET^ke	8-8	5-6
10	DAL^ke	7-8-1	4-6-1
11	TB	7-9	5-6	TB wins the tiebreak over ATL on Common Games (5-6 vs 4-7).
12	ATL^ke	7-9	6-5
13	NO^ke	6-10	4-7
14	WAS^ke	4-12	2-9
15	ARI^ke	3-13	3-8	ARI wins the tiebreak over NYG on Conference Record (3-8 vs 1-10).
16	NYG^ke	3-13	1-10

	AFC	Record	Conf. Rec.	Explanation
1	DEN^xy	13-3	8-3	DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (6-0 vs 5-1).
2	NE^xy	13-3	8-3
3	JAX^x	12-4	9-2
4	PIT	9-7	7-4
5	HOU^x	11-5	9-2	HOU wins the tiebreak over BUF/LAC on Head-to-Head Sweep.
6	LAC^kx	11-5	8-3	LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Common Games (5-1 vs 3-3).
7	BUF^kx	11-5	8-3
8	IND^ke	8-8	6-5	IND wins the tiebreak over BAL on Conference Record (6-5 vs 5-6).
9	BAL	8-8	5-6
10	MIA^ke	7-9	3-8
11	CIN^ke	6-10	5-6	CIN wins the tiebreak over KC on Conference Record (5-6 vs 3-8).
12	KC^ke	6-10	3-8
13	CLE^ke	4-12	3-8
14	TEN^ke	3-13	2-9	TEN wins the tiebreak over NYJ on Common Games (1-4 vs 1-5).
15	NYJ^ke	3-13	2-9
16	LV^ke	2-14	2-9


NFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PHI^xy	11-5	3-2
2	DAL^ke	7-8-1	4-1
3	WAS^ke	4-12	2-3
4	NYG^ke	3-13	1-4

NFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	CHI^xy	11-5	2-3
2	GB^kx	9-6-1	4-1
3	MIN^ke	8-8	3-2	MIN wins the tiebreak over DET on Head-to-Head (2-0).
4	DET^ke	8-8	1-4

NFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	CAR	8-8	3-2
2	TB	7-9	2-3	TB wins the tiebreak over ATL on Common Games (5-6 vs 4-7).
3	ATL^ke	7-9	2-3
4	NO^ke	6-10	3-2

NFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	SEA^x	13-3	3-2
2	SF^x	12-4	4-1
3	LAR^kx	11-5	3-2
4	ARI^ke	3-13	0-5

AFC	East	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	NE^xy	13-3	4-1
2	BUF^kx	11-5	3-2
3	MIA^ke	7-9	3-2
4	NYJ^ke	3-13	0-5

AFC	North	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	PIT	9-7	3-2
2	BAL	8-8	3-2
3	CIN^ke	6-10	3-2
4	CLE^ke	4-12	1-4

AFC	South	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	JAX^x	12-4	4-1
2	HOU^x	11-5	4-1
3	IND^ke	8-8	2-3
4	TEN^ke	3-13	0-5

AFC	West	Record	Div. Rec.	Explanation
1	DEN^xy	13-3	4-1
2	LAC^kx	11-5	5-0
3	KC^ke	6-10	1-4
4	LV^ke	2-14	0-5

^x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
^y Team has clinched their division title.
^e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
^k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, ARI, WAS, NO, ATL, TB, DAL, DET, MIN, GB, LAR, CAR, PHI, CHI
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: LV, NYJ, TEN, CLE, KC, CIN, MIA, BAL, IND, BUF, LAC, HOU, PIT

Standard-Style Clinching Scenarios

This is the standard style scenarios that just involve clinching a playoff berth/division without any concern for seed line. To see the correlated elimination scenarios, check out the elimination section under the seed-specific scenarios.

NFC

SEA clinches the NFC West division title, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage with:

SEA win/tie

SF clinches the NFC West division title, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage with:

SF win

CAR clinches the NFC South division title with:

	1)	CAR win/tie
OR	2)	ATL win

TB clinches the NFC South division title with:

TB win +

ATL loss/tie

AFC

DEN clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:

	1)	DEN win
OR	2)	DEN tie + NE loss/tie
OR	3)	NE loss + JAX loss/tie

NE clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:

	1)	NE win + DEN loss/tie
OR	2)	NE tie + DEN loss

JAX clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with:

JAX win +

DEN loss +

NE loss

JAX clinches the AFC South division title with:

	1)	JAX win/tie
OR	2)	HOU loss/tie

HOU clinches the AFC South division title with:

HOU win +

JAX loss

PIT clinches the AFC North division title with:

PIT win/tie

BAL clinches the AFC North division title with:

BAL win

Seed Possibilities

	NFC
1	SEA SF
2	CHI PHI
3	PHI CHI
4	CAR TB
5	SF SEA LAR
6	LAR SF
7	GB

	AFC
1	DEN NE JAX
2	NE DEN JAX
3	JAX DEN NE HOU
4	PIT BAL
5	HOU JAX LAC BUF
6	LAC JAX HOU BUF
7	BUF JAX HOU LAC

NFC Scenarios by seed

1 seed

SEA obtains the 1 seed with:

SEA win/tie

SF obtains the 1 seed with:

SF win

2 seed

CHI obtains the 2 seed with:

	1)	CHI win
OR	2)	CHI tie + PHI tie
OR	3)	PHI loss

PHI obtains the 2 seed with:

	1)	PHI win + CHI loss/tie
OR	2)	PHI tie + CHI loss

3 seed

PHI obtains the 3 seed with:

	1)	PHI tie + CHI tie
OR	2)	PHI loss
OR	3)	CHI win

CHI obtains the 3 seed with:

	1)	CHI tie + PHI win
OR	2)	CHI loss + PHI win/tie

4 seed

CAR obtains the 4 seed with:

	1)	CAR win/tie
OR	2)	ATL win

TB obtains the 4 seed with:

TB win +

ATL loss/tie

5 seed

SF obtains the 5 seed with:

	1)	SF tie
OR	2)	SF loss + LAR loss/tie

SEA obtains the 5 seed with:

SEA loss

LAR obtains the 5 seed with:

LAR win +

SF loss

6 seed

LAR obtains the 6 seed with:

	1)	LAR loss/tie
OR	2)	SF win/tie

SF obtains the 6 seed with:

SF loss +

LAR win

7 seed

GB is locked into the 7 seed

Elimination

CAR is eliminated from playoff contention with:

CAR loss + ATL

ATL loss/tie

TB is eliminated from playoff contention with:

	1)	TB loss/tie
OR	2)	ATL win

AFC Scenarios by seed

1 seed

DEN obtains the 1 seed with:

	1)	DEN win
OR	2)	DEN tie + NE loss/tie
OR	3)	NE loss + JAX loss/tie

NE obtains the 1 seed with:

	1)	NE win + DEN loss/tie
OR	2)	NE tie + DEN loss

JAX obtains the 1 seed with:

JAX win +

DEN loss +

NE loss

2 seed

NE obtains the 2 seed with:

	1)	NE win + DEN win
OR	2)	NE tie + DEN win/tie
OR	3)	NE loss + JAX loss/tie
OR	4)	DEN win + JAX loss/tie

DEN obtains the 2 seed with:

	1)	DEN tie + NE win
OR	2)	DEN loss + NE win/tie + JAX loss/tie
OR	3)	DEN loss + NE loss + JAX win

JAX obtains the 2 seed with:

	1)	JAX win + DEN loss + NE win/tie
OR	2)	JAX win + DEN win/tie + NE loss

3 seed

JAX obtains the 3 seed with:

	1)	JAX win + DEN win/tie + NE win/tie
OR	2)	JAX tie
OR	3)	JAX loss + HOU loss/tie
OR	4)	DEN win/tie + NE win/tie + HOU loss/tie

DEN obtains the 3 seed with:

DEN loss +

NE win/tie + JAX

JAX win

NE obtains the 3 seed with:

NE loss +

JAX win

HOU obtains the 3 seed with:

HOU win +

JAX loss

4 seed

PIT obtains the 4 seed with:

PIT win/tie

BAL obtains the 4 seed with:

BAL win

5 seed

HOU obtains the 5 seed with:

	1)	HOU win + JAX win/tie
OR	2)	HOU tie + LAC loss/tie + BUF loss/tie
OR	3)	HOU loss + LAC loss + BUF loss
OR	4)	JAX win/tie + LAC loss + BUF loss

JAX obtains the 5 seed with:

	1)	JAX loss + HOU win + BUF loss/tie
OR	2)	JAX loss + HOU win + LAC win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (NYG, WAS, GB, CAR, ARI, SF, NE, BAL)

The italicized portion of scenario 2 is for JAX clinching at least a tie in Strength of Victory over LAC.

LAC obtains the 5 seed with:

	1)	LAC win + HOU loss/tie
OR	2)	LAC win + JAX loss + BUF win + 5 or more combined wins from (DAL, PHI, MIN, TB, SEA, LAR, MIA, PIT)
OR	3)	LAC tie + HOU loss + BUF loss/tie

The italicized portion of scenario 2 is for LAC clinching Strength of Victory over JAX.

BUF obtains the 5 seed with:

	1)	BUF win + LAC loss/tie + HOU loss/tie
OR	2)	BUF win + LAC loss/tie + JAX loss
OR	3)	BUF tie + LAC loss + HOU loss

6 seed

LAC obtains the 6 seed with:

	1)	LAC win + HOU win + JAX win/tie
OR	2)	LAC win + HOU win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (NYG, WAS, GB, CAR, ARI, SF, NE, BAL)
OR	3)	LAC win + HOU win + BUF tie
OR	4)	LAC tie + HOU win/tie + BUF tie
OR	5)	LAC tie + HOU tie + BUF loss
OR	6)	LAC tie + HOU loss + BUF win
OR	7)	LAC loss + BUF loss
OR	8)	HOU win + BUF loss

The italicized portion of scenario 2 is for JAX clinching at least a tie in Strength of Victory over LAC.

JAX obtains the 6 seed with:

JAX loss + HOU

HOU win +

BUF win +

LAC loss/tie

HOU obtains the 6 seed with:

	1)	HOU tie + BUF loss/tie + LAC win
OR	2)	HOU tie + BUF win + LAC loss/tie
OR	3)	HOU loss + BUF loss + LAC win/tie
OR	4)	HOU loss + BUF win/tie + LAC loss

BUF obtains the 6 seed with:

	1)	BUF win + LAC loss/tie + HOU win + JAX win/tie
OR	2)	BUF win + LAC win + HOU loss/tie
OR	3)	BUF win + LAC win + JAX loss + 5 or more combined wins from (DAL, PHI, MIN, TB, SEA, LAR, MIA, PIT)
OR	4)	BUF tie + LAC loss + HOU win/tie
OR	5)	BUF tie + LAC win/tie + HOU loss

The italicized portion of scenario 3 is for LAC clinching Strength of Victory over JAX.

7 seed

BUF obtains the 7 seed with:

	1)	BUF tie + LAC win/tie + HOU win/tie
OR	2)	BUF loss
OR	3)	LAC win + HOU win + JAX win/tie
OR	4)	LAC win + HOU win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (NYG, WAS, GB, CAR, ARI, SF, NE, BAL)

The italicized portion of scenario 4 is for JAX clinching at least a tie in Strength of Victory over LAC.

JAX obtains the 7 seed with:

JAX loss + HOU

HOU win +

LAC win +

BUF win + 5 or more combined wins from (DAL, PHI, MIN, TB, SEA, LAR, MIA, PIT)

The italicized portion of scenario 1 is for LAC clinching Strength of Victory over JAX.

HOU obtains the 7 seed with:

	1)	HOU tie + LAC win + BUF win
OR	2)	HOU loss + LAC win/tie + BUF win/tie

LAC obtains the 7 seed with:

	1)	LAC tie + HOU win/tie + BUF win
OR	2)	LAC loss + BUF win/tie

Elimination

PIT is eliminated from playoff contention with:

PIT loss

BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with:

BAL loss/tie

Draft top 10


Pick	Team	Record	Strength Of Schedule	Explanation
1	LV	2-14	141-114-1 (.553)
2	NYG	3-13	136-118-2 (.535)
3	NYJ	3-13	138-117-1 (.541)
4	TEN	3-13	144-112 (.563)
5	ARI	3-13	145-109-2 (.570)
6	WAS	4-12	126-127-3 (.498)	WAS clinches the tiebreak over CLE on common games (1-5 vs 3-3)
7	CLE	4-12	127-128-1 (.498)
8	NO	6-10	126-128 (.496)
9	KC	6-10	136-119-1 (.533)	KC wins the tiebreak over CIN on Conference Record (3-8 vs 5-6).
10	CIN	6-10	136-119-1 (.533)

First Overall Draft Pick Scenarios

LV clinches the first overall draft pick with:

	1)	LV loss/tie
OR	2)	3 or more combined losses from (CHI, ATL, SEA, CLE)
OR	3)	NYG win/tie

The italicized portion of scenario 2 is for NYG clinching at least a tie in Strength of Schedule over LV

NYG clinches the first overall draft pick with:

NYG loss +

LV win + 1.5 or more combined losses from (DET, NO, SF, CIN)

The italicized portion of scenario 1 is for LV clinching Strength of Schedule over NYG

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