Playoff Picture Entering Week 17 2025
Dec 22, 2025 | Week 17, 2025
|
NFL Playoff Scenarios
Standings Entering Week 17
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
 NFC |
Record |
Conf. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
 SEAx |
12-3 |
7-3 |
|
| 2 |
 CHIx |
11-4 |
7-3 |
|
| 3 |
 PHIxy |
10-5 |
8-3 |
|
| 4 |
 CAR |
8-7 |
6-4 |
|
| 5 |
 SFx |
11-4 |
8-2 |
SF wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (4-1 vs 3-2). |
| 6 |
 LARx |
11-4 |
6-4 |
|
| 7 |
 GB |
9-5-1 |
7-3-1 |
|
| 8 |
 DETk |
8-7 |
5-5 |
|
| 9 |
 MINke |
7-8 |
5-5 |
MIN wins the tiebreak over TB on Conference Record (5-5 vs 5-6). |
| 10 |
 TB |
7-8 |
5-6 |
|
| 11 |
 DALke |
6-8-1 |
3-6-1 |
|
| 12 |
 ATLke |
6-9 |
5-5 |
|
| 13 |
 NOke |
5-10 |
4-7 |
|
| 14 |
 WASke |
4-11 |
2-8 |
|
| 15 |
 ARIke |
3-12 |
3-8 |
|
| 16 |
 NYGke |
2-13 |
1-10 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
 AFC |
Record |
Conf. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
 DENx |
12-3 |
7-3 |
DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Common Games (6-0 vs 4-1). |
| 2 |
 NEx |
12-3 |
7-3 |
|
| 3 |
 JAXx |
11-4 |
8-2 |
|
| 4 |
 PIT |
9-6 |
7-3 |
|
| 5 |
 LACx |
11-4 |
8-2 |
LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (8-2 vs 8-3). |
| 6 |
 BUFx |
11-4 |
8-3 |
|
| 7 |
 HOU |
10-5 |
8-2 |
|
| 8 |
 INDk |
8-7 |
6-4 |
|
| 9 |
 BAL |
7-8 |
5-6 |
|
| 10 |
 KCke |
6-9 |
3-7 |
KC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Conference Record (3-7 vs 3-8). |
| 11 |
 MIAke |
6-9 |
3-8 |
|
| 12 |
 CINke |
5-10 |
5-6 |
|
| 13 |
 NYJke |
3-12 |
2-8 |
CLE drops out of the tiebreak with NYJ/TEN on Head-to-Head Sweep. NYJ wins the tiebreak over TEN on Conference Record (2-8 vs 2-9). |
| 14 |
 TENke |
3-12 |
2-9 |
TEN wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head. |
| 15 |
 CLEke |
3-12 |
2-8 |
|
| 16 |
 LVke |
2-13 |
2-9 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| NFC |
East |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
PHIxy |
10-5 |
3-2 |
|
| 2 |
DALke |
6-8-1 |
3-1 |
|
| 3 |
WASke |
4-11 |
2-2 |
|
| 4 |
NYGke |
2-13 |
1-4 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| NFC |
North |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
CHIx |
11-4 |
2-3 |
|
| 2 |
GB |
9-5-1 |
4-1 |
|
| 3 |
DETk |
8-7 |
1-3 |
|
| 4 |
MINke |
7-8 |
2-2 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| NFC |
South |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
CAR |
8-7 |
3-2 |
|
| 2 |
TB |
7-8 |
2-3 |
|
| 3 |
ATLke |
6-9 |
2-3 |
|
| 4 |
NOke |
5-10 |
3-2 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| NFC |
West |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
SEAx |
12-3 |
3-2 |
|
| 2 |
SFx |
11-4 |
4-1 |
SF wins the tiebreak over LAR on Division Record (4-1 vs 3-2). |
| 3 |
LARx |
11-4 |
3-2 |
|
| 4 |
ARIke |
3-12 |
0-5 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| AFC |
East |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
NEx |
12-3 |
3-1 |
|
| 2 |
BUFx |
11-4 |
3-2 |
|
| 3 |
MIAke |
6-9 |
3-2 |
|
| 4 |
NYJke |
3-12 |
0-4 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| AFC |
North |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
PIT |
9-6 |
3-1 |
|
| 2 |
BAL |
7-8 |
3-2 |
|
| 3 |
CINke |
5-10 |
3-2 |
|
| 4 |
CLEke |
3-12 |
0-4 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| AFC |
South |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
JAXx |
11-4 |
3-1 |
|
| 2 |
HOU |
10-5 |
4-1 |
|
| 3 |
INDk |
8-7 |
2-2 |
|
| 4 |
TENke |
3-12 |
0-5 |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| AFC |
West |
Record |
Div. Rec. |
Explanation |
| 1 |
DENx |
12-3 |
3-1 |
|
| 2 |
LACx |
11-4 |
5-0 |
|
| 3 |
KCke |
6-9 |
1-3 |
|
| 4 |
LVke |
2-13 |
0-5 |
|
x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
y Team has clinched their division title.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, ARI, WAS, NO, ATL, DAL, TB, MIN, DET, GB, CAR, PHI
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: LV, CLE, TEN, NYJ, CIN, MIA, KC, BAL, IND, PIT
Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 17
NFC
|
SEA clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with: |
| |
1) |
SEA win +
LAR loss/tie +
SF tie |
|
SEA clinches the NFC West division title with: |
| |
1) |
SEA win +
LAR loss/tie +
SF loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
SEA tie +
LAR loss +
SF loss |
|
CHI clinches the NFC North division title with: |
| |
1) |
CHI win |
| OR |
2) |
CHI tie +
GB tie |
| OR |
3) |
GB loss |
|
CAR clinches the NFC South division title with: |
| |
1) |
CAR win +
TB loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
CAR tie +
TB loss |
|
GB clinches a playoff berth with: |
| |
1) |
GB win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
DET loss/tie |
AFC
|
DEN clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with: |
| |
1) |
DEN win +
NE loss +
LAC loss/tie +
JAX loss/tie +
BUF loss/tie |
|
DEN clinches the AFC West division title with: |
| |
1) |
DEN win +
LAC loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
DEN tie +
LAC loss |
|
NE clinches the AFC East division title with: |
| |
1) |
NE win +
BUF loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
NE tie +
BUF loss |
|
JAX clinches the AFC South division title with: |
| |
1) |
JAX win +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
JAX tie +
HOU loss |
|
PIT clinches the AFC North division title with: |
| |
1) |
PIT win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
BAL loss/tie |
|
HOU clinches a playoff berth with: |
| |
1) |
HOU win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
IND loss/tie |
| OR |
3) |
TB win + SF win + LAR win + BUF win + BAL win + KC win |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 17
NFC
|
DET is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| |
1) |
DET loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
GB win/tie |
|
TB is eliminated from NFC South title contention AND playoff contention with: |
| |
1) |
TB loss +
CAR win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
TB tie +
CAR win |
|
GB is knocked out of NFC North title contention with: |
| |
1) |
GB loss |
| OR |
2) |
GB tie +
CHI tie |
| OR |
3) |
CHI win |
|
LAR is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with: |
| |
1) |
LAR loss |
| OR |
2) |
LAR tie +
SEA win |
| OR |
3) |
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
SF tie |
| OR |
4) |
LAR tie +
SF win |
| OR |
5) |
SEA win +
SF win |
|
SF is knocked out of NFC West title contention with: |
| |
1) |
SF loss +
SEA win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
SF tie +
SEA win |
|
SF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| |
1) |
SF loss |
| OR |
2) |
SF tie +
SEA win |
|
CHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| |
1) |
CHI loss |
| OR |
2) |
CHI tie +
SEA win/tie |
AFC
|
BAL is eliminated from AFC North title contention AND playoff contention with: |
| |
1) |
BAL loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
PIT win/tie |
|
IND is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| |
1) |
IND loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
HOU win/tie |
| OR |
3) |
TB win + SF win + LAR win + BUF win + BAL win + KC win |
|
BUF is knocked out of AFC East title contention with: |
| |
1) |
BUF loss +
NE win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
BUF tie +
NE win |
|
BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| |
1) |
BUF loss +
NE win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
BUF loss +
DEN win/tie |
| OR |
3) |
BUF loss +
LAC win/tie |
| OR |
4) |
BUF loss +
JAX win/tie |
| OR |
5) |
BUF loss + TEN win/tie |
| OR |
6) |
BUF loss + ARI win |
| OR |
7) |
BUF loss + ARI tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (GB, SF, LV) |
| OR |
8) |
BUF loss + ARI tie + 1 combined wins from (DAL, MIN, SEA, MIA, PIT) |
| OR |
9) |
BUF loss + LV win |
| OR |
10) |
BUF loss + LV tie + 0.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, GB, MIN, SEA, MIA, PIT) |
| OR |
11) |
BUF loss + LV tie + SF win |
| OR |
12) |
BUF loss + GB win + 0.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, MIN, SEA, SF, MIA, PIT) |
| OR |
13) |
BUF loss + GB tie + SF win |
| OR |
14) |
BUF loss + GB tie + 1 combined wins from (DAL, MIN, SEA, MIA, PIT) |
| OR |
15) |
BUF loss + 1.5 or more combined wins from (DAL, MIN, SEA, MIA, PIT) |
| OR |
16) |
BUF tie +
DEN win |
| OR |
17) |
BUF tie +
NE win |
| OR |
18) |
BUF tie +
DEN tie +
LAC tie |
| OR |
19) |
BUF tie +
LAC win |
| OR |
20) |
DEN win +
LAC win |
|
HOU is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
| |
1) |
HOU loss +
JAX win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
HOU tie +
JAX win |
|
HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| |
1) |
HOU loss/tie |
| OR |
2) |
DEN win/tie |
| OR |
3) |
NE win/tie |
|
LAC is knocked out of AFC West title contention with: |
| |
1) |
LAC loss +
DEN win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
LAC tie +
DEN win |
|
LAC is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| |
1) |
LAC loss +
DEN win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
LAC loss +
NE win/tie |
| OR |
3) |
LAC loss +
JAX win +
BUF win/tie |
| OR |
4) |
LAC loss +
JAX win + 5 or more combined wins from (NYG, WAS, DET, CAR, TB, ARI, SF, CLE) |
| OR |
5) |
LAC tie +
DEN win |
| OR |
6) |
LAC tie +
NE win |
|
NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| |
1) |
NE loss +
DEN win |
| OR |
2) |
NE loss +
DEN tie +
LAC win |
|
JAX is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| |
1) |
JAX loss +
DEN win/tie |
| OR |
2) |
JAX loss +
NE win/tie |
| OR |
3) |
JAX loss +
LAC win/tie |
| OR |
4) |
JAX tie +
NE win |
| OR |
5) |
JAX tie +
DEN win |
| OR |
6) |
JAX tie +
DEN tie +
LAC win |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 17
We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.
The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).
If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| |
1 seed |
2 seed |
3 seed |
4 seed |
5 seed |
6 seed |
7 seed |
Miss Playoffs |
|
SEA |
44% |
9% |
|
|
25% |
21% |
|
|
|
CHI |
23% |
66% |
5% |
|
|
2% |
5% |
|
|
PHI |
|
9% |
85% |
6% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAR |
|
|
6% |
60% |
|
|
|
34% |
|
SF |
25% |
7% |
2% |
|
30% |
32% |
5% |
|
|
LAR |
8% |
5% |
|
|
44% |
37% |
6% |
|
|
GB |
|
5% |
2% |
|
2% |
8% |
78% |
6% |
|
DET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6% |
94% |
|
MIN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
TB |
|
|
|
34% |
|
|
|
66% |
|
DAL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
ATL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
NO |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
WAS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
ARI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
NYG |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| |
1 seed |
2 seed |
3 seed |
4 seed |
5 seed |
6 seed |
7 seed |
Miss Playoffs |
|
DEN |
41% |
18% |
4% |
|
21% |
14% |
2% |
|
|
NE |
23% |
33% |
13% |
|
14% |
15% |
2% |
|
|
JAX |
14% |
16% |
38% |
2% |
9% |
12% |
10% |
|
|
PIT |
|
|
2% |
86% |
|
|
|
12% |
|
LAC |
14% |
13% |
10% |
|
27% |
16% |
20% |
|
|
BUF |
7% |
14% |
10% |
|
22% |
28% |
20% |
|
|
HOU |
1% |
6% |
24% |
|
7% |
15% |
41% |
6% |
|
IND |
|
|
|
|
|
|
6% |
94% |
|
BAL |
|
|
|
12% |
|
|
|
88% |
|
KC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
MIA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
CIN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
NYJ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
TEN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
CLE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
LV |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% |
Seed Control Entering Week 17
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
SEA
SF(5)
DEN
Teams that control the 2 seed:
CHI
NE
Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI
JAX
LAC(5)
Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB
CAR
PIT
Teams that control the 5 seed:
LAR(1)
BUF(6)
Teams that control the 6 seed:
None
Teams that control the 7 seed:
GB(3)
HOU
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DET
BAL(4)
IND
Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG
ARI
WAS
NO
ATL
DAL
MIN
LV
CLE
TEN
NYJ
CIN
MIA
KC
Draft Top 10 Entering Week 17
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Pick |
Team |
Record |
Strength Of Schedule |
|
|
|
| 1 |
NYG |
2-13 |
126-97-2 (.564) |
|
|
|
| 2 |
LV |
2-13 |
130-94-1 (.580) |
|
|
|
| 3 |
CLE |
3-12 |
111-113-1 (.496) |
|
|
|
| 4 |
NYJ |
3-12 |
114-110-1 (.509) |
|
|
|
| 5 |
TEN |
3-12 |
130-95 (.578) |
|
|
|
| 6 |
ARI |
3-12 |
130-93-2 (.582) |
|
|
|
| 7 |
WAS |
4-11 |
110-113-2 (.493) |
|
|
|
| 8 |
NO |
5-10 |
118-107 (.524) |
|
|
|
| 9 |
CIN |
5-10 |
125-99-1 (.558) |
|
|
|
| 10 |
MIA |
6-9 |
106-119 (.471) |
|
|
|
NYG can clinch the 1st overall pick this week. The specific scenarios will be delineated later this week.
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