Playoff Picture Entering Week 16 2025
There is one missing GB 1 seed elimination scenario involving some complex Strength of Victory and Strength of Schedule analysis. Everything else is complete.
Standings Entering Week 16
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 LARx |
11-3 | 6-3 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 2 |
 CHI |
10-4 | 6-3 | |
| 3 |
 PHI |
9-5 | 7-3 | |
| 4 |
 TB |
7-7 | 5-5 | TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-5 vs 4-6). |
| 5 |
 SEA |
11-3 | 6-3 | |
| 6 |
 SF |
10-4 | 8-2 | |
| 7 |
 GB |
9-4-1 | 7-2-1 | |
| 8 |
 DET |
8-6 | 5-5 | |
| 9 |
 CAR |
7-7 | 5-4 | |
| 10 |
 DAL |
6-7-1 | 3-6-1 | |
| 11 |
 MINke |
6-8 | 4-5 | |
| 12 |
 ATLke |
5-9 | 4-5 | |
| 13 |
 NOke |
4-10 | 4-7 | NO wins the tiebreak over WAS on Conference Record (4-7 vs 2-7). |
| 14 |
 WASke |
4-10 | 2-7 | |
| 15 |
 ARIke |
3-11 | 3-7 | |
| 16 |
 NYGke |
2-12 | 1-9 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 DENx |
12-2 | 7-2 | |
| 2 |
 NE |
11-3 | 6-3 | |
| 3 |
 JAX |
10-4 | 7-2 | |
| 4 |
 PIT |
8-6 | 7-3 | |
| 5 |
 LAC |
10-4 | 8-2 | LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (8-2 vs 7-3). |
| 6 |
 BUF |
10-4 | 7-3 | |
| 7 |
 HOU |
9-5 | 7-2 | |
| 8 |
 IND |
8-6 | 6-4 | |
| 9 |
 BAL |
7-7 | 5-5 | |
| 10 |
 KCke |
6-8 | 3-6 | KC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Conference Record (3-6 vs 3-7). |
| 11 |
 MIAke |
6-8 | 3-7 | |
| 12 |
 CINke |
4-10 | 4-6 | |
| 13 |
 NYJke |
3-11 | 2-8 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head. |
| 14 |
 CLEke |
3-11 | 2-7 | |
| 15 |
 LVke |
2-12 | 2-8 | LV wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head. |
| 16 |
 TENke |
2-12 | 1-9 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PHI |
9-5 | 2-2 | |
| 2 |
DAL |
6-7-1 | 3-1 | |
| 3 |
WASke |
4-10 | 2-1 | |
| 4 |
NYGke |
2-12 | 1-4 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
CHI |
10-4 | 1-3 | |
| 2 |
GB |
9-4-1 | 4-0 | |
| 3 |
DET |
8-6 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
MINke |
6-8 | 2-2 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
TB |
7-7 | 2-2 | TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-5 vs 4-6). |
| 2 |
CAR |
7-7 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
ATLke |
5-9 | 2-3 | |
| 4 |
NOke |
4-10 | 3-2 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
LARx |
11-3 | 3-1 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 2 |
SEA |
11-3 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
SF |
10-4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 |
ARIke |
3-11 | 0-5 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
NE |
11-3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
BUF |
10-4 | 3-2 | |
| 3 |
MIAke |
6-8 | 3-2 | |
| 4 |
NYJke |
3-11 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PIT |
8-6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
BAL |
7-7 | 3-2 | |
| 3 |
CINke |
4-10 | 3-2 | |
| 4 |
CLEke |
3-11 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
JAX |
10-4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
HOU |
9-5 | 4-1 | |
| 3 |
IND |
8-6 | 2-2 | |
| 4 |
TENke |
2-12 | 0-5 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DENx |
12-2 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
LAC |
10-4 | 5-0 | |
| 3 |
KCke |
6-8 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
LVke |
2-12 | 0-5 |
x Team has clinched a playoff berth.
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, ARI, WAS, NO, ATL, MIN, DAL, CAR, DET, TB
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ, CIN, MIA, KC, BAL, IND, PIT
Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 16
NFC
|
PHI clinches the NFC East division title with: |
| 1) |
PHI win |
|
| OR | 2) |
PHI tie +
DAL tie |
| OR | 3) |
DAL loss |
|
GB clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
GB win +
DET loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
GB tie +
DET loss |
|
CHI clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
CHI win +
DET loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
CHI tie +
DET loss |
|
SEA clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
SEA win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DET loss/tie |
|
SF clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
SF win |
|
| OR | 2) |
SF tie +
DET tie |
| OR | 3) |
DET loss |
AFC
|
DEN clinches the AFC West division title with: |
| 1) |
DEN win +
LAC loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DEN tie +
LAC loss |
|
DEN clinches a first-round bye and home-field advantage with: |
| 1) |
DEN win +
LAC loss/tie +
NE loss +
BUF loss/tie |
|
NE clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
NE win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
HOU loss/tie |
|
BUF clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
BUF win +
IND loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
BUF win +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
BUF tie +
IND loss |
| OR | 4) |
BUF tie +
HOU loss |
|
JAX clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
JAX win +
IND loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
JAX win +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
JAX tie +
IND loss |
| OR | 4) |
JAX tie +
IND tie +
HOU loss |
|
LAC clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
LAC win +
IND loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LAC win +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
LAC tie +
IND loss |
| OR | 4) |
LAC tie +
IND tie +
HOU loss |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 16
NFC
|
DAL is eliminated from NFC East title contention AND playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
DAL loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
DAL tie +
PHI tie |
| OR | 3) |
PHI win |
|
DET is knocked out of NFC North title contention with: |
| 1) |
DET loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
DET tie +
GB win |
| OR | 3) |
DET tie +
CHI win |
|
DET is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
DET loss +
CHI/
GB tie |
|
PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
PHI loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
PHI tie +
LAR win |
| OR | 3) |
PHI tie +
SEA win |
| OR | 4) |
PHI tie +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
PHI tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 6) |
CHI win +
SEA win +
SF win |
|
GB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
GB loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
GB tie +
SEA win +
SF win +
PHI loss/tie |
AFC
|
IND is knocked out of AFC South title contention with: |
| 1) |
IND loss +
JAX win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
IND tie +
JAX win |
|
LAC is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with: |
| 1) |
LAC loss +
DEN win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
LAC tie +
DEN win |
|
NE is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
NE loss +
DEN win |
|
BUF is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
BUF loss +
DEN win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
BUF loss +
LAC win |
| OR | 3) |
BUF tie +
DEN win |
|
JAX is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
JAX loss |
|
HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
HOU loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DEN win/tie |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 16
We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.
The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).
If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LAR |
41% | 8% | 1% | 31% | 14% | 4% | ||
|
CHI |
13% | 44% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 16% | 11% | |
|
PHI |
1% | 8% | 80% | 10% | <1% | 2% | ||
|
TB |
2% | 59% | 39% | |||||
|
SEA |
30% | 3% | <1% | 34% | 27% | 6% | <1% | |
|
SF |
13% | 3% | <1% | 29% | 34% | 19% | 1% | |
|
GB |
2% | 31% | 4% | 2% | 14% | 38% | 9% | |
|
DET |
2% | 2% | 2% | 17% | 78% | |||
|
CAR |
9% | 31% | 61% | |||||
|
DAL |
1% | <1% | 98% | |||||
|
MIN |
100% | |||||||
|
ATL |
100% | |||||||
|
NO |
100% | |||||||
|
WAS |
100% | |||||||
|
ARI |
100% | |||||||
|
NYG |
100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DEN |
71% | 11% | 3% | 12% | 3% | <1% | ||
|
NE |
9% | 45% | 17% | <1% | 10% | 14% | 4% | <1% |
|
JAX |
9% | 18% | 32% | 2% | 8% | 13% | 13% | 6% |
|
PIT |
<1% | 4% | 62% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 33% | |
|
LAC |
8% | 5% | 3% | 45% | 20% | 15% | 6% | |
|
BUF |
3% | 15% | 11% | <1% | 18% | 31% | 20% | 3% |
|
HOU |
<1% | 5% | 25% | 1% | 7% | 15% | 32% | 14% |
|
IND |
<1% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 15% | 72% | |
|
BAL |
34% | <1% | 66% | |||||
|
KC |
100% | |||||||
|
MIA |
100% | |||||||
|
CIN |
100% | |||||||
|
NYJ |
100% | |||||||
|
CLE |
100% | |||||||
|
LV |
100% | |||||||
|
TEN |
100% |
Seed Control Entering Week 16
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
LAR
SEA
DEN
Teams that control the 2 seed:
GB
CHI
NE
Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI
JAX
Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB
CAR
PIT
BAL
Teams that control the 5 seed:
SF
LAC
Teams that control the 6 seed:
BUF
Teams that control the 7 seed:
HOU
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
DET(7)
IND(7)
Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG
ARI
WAS
NO
ATL
MIN
TEN
LV
CLE
NYJ
CIN
MIA
KC
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