Every Team's Path to the Playoffs (2025 Week 17)
Introduction
With only 2 weeks to go, the playoff picture is becoming increasingly clear. And given the simplicity of this season, we can pretty easily delineate every single possibility each non-eliminated team has to make the playoffs. Unlike previous seasons, the scenarios here are meant to be exhaustive, as they can be easily delineated.
Playoff Picture Entering Week 17
GB - 2 options
Option 1:
- GB wins or ties a game
Option 2:
- DET loses or ties a game
Notes:
GB has head-to-head over DET, so DET would have surpass GB’s record, and GB is currently 1.5 games up, so there isn’t even a tie of wiggle room.
DET - Only option
Only Option:
- DET wins out
- GB loses out
Notes:
This is simply the flip side of GB’s path. DET must surpass GB’s record.
CAR - 4 options
Option 1:
- CAR defeats or ties TB week 18
Option 2:
- CAR wins week 17
- TB loses or ties week 17
Option 3:
- CAR ties week 17
- TB loses week 17
Option 4:
- TB loses week 17
- ATL wins out
Notes:
Option 1 gives CAR the division on pure record if they beat TB. If they tie, CAR gets the head-to-head tiebreaker. Options 2 & 3 are both pure record clinches. Option 4 is the fun one. If CAR & TB both lose week 17, TB beats CAR week 18, and ATL wins out, then we have a 3-way tie at 8-9 with ATL/CAR/TB. This tie would be won by CAR on head-to-head (3-1 vs 2-2 for TB, 1-3 for ATL). A 2-way tie without ATL would go to TB on common games.
TB - 3 options
Option 1:
- TB wins out
Option 2:
- TB ties week 17
- TB defeats CAR week 18
- CAR loses or ties week 17
Option 3:
- TB defeats CAR week 18
- CAR loses week 17
- ATL loses/ties a game
Notes:
These are just the reverse of CAR. Option 1 & 2 gives TB either an outright win on record, or a tiebreaker that is given to TB on common games. Option 3 is where TB loses week 17, but ATL can’t force the 3-way tie mentioned above, so TB still gets the division on common games. The only way for CAR or TB to make the playoffs is by winning their division.
PIT - 2 options
Option 1:
- PIT wins or ties a game
Option 2:
- BAL loses or ties a game
Notes:
Unless PIT loses out & BAL wins out, PIT wins the division on pure record. If PIT loses out & BAL wins out, then BAL takes the division on division record.
BAL - 1 option
Only option:
- BAL wins out
- PIT loses out
Notes:
This is the flip side of PIT, as the only way for either team to make the playoffs is by winning their division.
HOU - 5 options
Option 1:
- HOU wins or ties a game
Option 2:
- IND loses or ties a game
Option 3:
- HOU clinches Strength of Victory over IND
Option 4:
- HOU ties IND in Strength of Victory
- HOU clinches Strength of Schedule over IND
Option 5:
- HOU ties IND in Strength of Victory
- HOU ties IND in Strength of Schedule
- HOU clinches best combined conference points for/points against ranking over IND
Notes:
Options 1 & 2 are pure record clinches. Option 3 is where the fun begins. See below for a break down of the Strength of Victory sitution.
IND - 2 options
Option 1:
- IND wins out
- HOU loses out
- IND clinches Strength of Victory over HOU
Option 2:
- IND wins out
- HOU loses out
- IND ties HOU in Strength of Victory
- IND ties HOU in Strength of Schedule
- IND clinches best combined conference points for/points against ranking over HOU
Notes:
This is just the flip side to the HOU scenario. Unless IND wins out & HOU loses out, IND is out on pure record. If both happen, we fall to Strength of Victory. Note that there is no IND clinching Strength of Schedule scenario. This is explained in the breakdown below.
Strength of Victory Breakdown for HOU/IND
There are 12 games that impact the Strength of Victory. The following results for those games benefit HOU. The opposite result of the below benefits IND
- KC defeats DEN week 17 (counts twice)
- LAR defeats ATL week 17
- TB defeats MIA week 17
- SF defeats CHI week 17
- BUF defeats PHI week 17
- BAL defeats GB week 17
- NO defeats ATL week 18
- NE defeats MIA week 18
- KC defeats LV week 18
- SF defeats SEA week 18
- BUF defeats NYJ week 18
- BAL defeats PIT week 18
If more than 7 of these 13 results occur, HOU clinches Strength of Victory (13 results because KC/DEN counts twice).
If fewer than 7 of these 13 results occur, IND clinches Strength of Victory.
If exactly 7 of these 13 results occur, we fall to Strength of Schedule. IND cannot clinch Strength of Schedule in any scenario in which the tiebreaker falls to it. HOU has it clinched unless these 8 exact results occur:
- KC defeats DEN week 17
- SF defeats CHI week 17
- MIA defeats TB week 17
- PIT defeats CLE week 17
- SF defeats SEA week 18
- KC defeats LV week 18
- PIT defeats BAL week 18
- CAR defeats TB week 18
As well as exactly 4 wins from the following:
- ATL week 17 (vs LAR)
- GB week 17 (vs BAL)
- PHI week 17 (vs BUF)
- ATL week 18 (vs NO)
- MIA week 18 (vs NE)
- NYJ week 18 (vs BUF)
These are the only combination of the 13 Strength of Victory results that don’t result in HOU clinching Strength of Schedule. If this happens, we end up with a Strength of Schedule tie and we fall to combined conference rank in points for/points against (and potential tiebreakers beyond that in the most extreme circumstance). The clinching of that will not be broken down in this post. Note that we have 2 additional games in this list beyond the ones in the first list. That’s because PIT/CLE & NO/ATL do not have an impact on Strength of Victory, but they do on Strength of Schedule, and both of those have to go in favor of IND to prevent HOU from clinching Strength of Schedule outright.
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