Playoff Picture Entering Week 15 2025
TB 1 seed elimination and KC playoff scenarios are not yet complete. They will be gradually growing. Especially KC, who has some Strength of Victory shenanigans.
Standings Entering Week 15
 NFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 LAR |
10-3 | 5-3 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 2 |
 GB |
9-3-1 | 7-2-1 | |
| 3 |
 PHI |
8-5 | 7-3 | |
| 4 |
 TB |
7-6 | 5-4 | TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-4 vs 4-5). |
| 5 |
 SEA |
10-3 | 6-3 | |
| 6 |
 SF |
9-4 | 8-2 | SF wins the tiebreak over CHI on Conference Record (8-2 vs 6-3). |
| 7 |
 CHI |
9-4 | 6-3 | |
| 8 |
 DET |
8-5 | 5-4 | |
| 9 |
 CAR |
7-6 | 5-3 | |
| 10 |
 DAL |
6-6-1 | 3-5-1 | |
| 11 |
 MINk |
5-8 | 3-5 | |
| 12 |
 ATLke |
4-9 | 3-5 | |
| 13 |
 ARIke |
3-10 | 3-7 | WAS drops out of the tiebreak with NO/ARI on Conference Record (1-7 vs 3-7). ARI wins the tiebreak over NO on Head-to-Head. |
| 14 |
 NOke |
3-10 | 3-7 | NO wins the tiebreak over WAS on Conference Record (3-7 vs 1-7). |
| 15 |
 WASke |
3-10 | 1-7 | |
| 16 |
 NYGke |
2-11 | 1-8 | |
 AFC |
Record | Conf. Rec. | Explanation | |
| 1 |
 DEN |
11-2 | 7-2 | DEN wins the tiebreak over NE on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-2). |
| 2 |
 NE |
11-2 | 6-2 | |
| 3 |
 JAX |
9-4 | 6-2 | |
| 4 |
 PIT |
7-6 | 6-3 | |
| 5 |
 LAC |
9-4 | 7-2 | LAC wins the tiebreak over BUF on Conference Record (7-2 vs 6-3). |
| 6 |
 BUF |
9-4 | 6-3 | |
| 7 |
 HOU |
8-5 | 7-2 | HOU wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 8 |
 IND |
8-5 | 6-4 | |
| 9 |
 BAL |
6-7 | 4-5 | BAL wins the tiebreak over KC/MIA on Conference Record (4-5 vs 3-5/3-6). |
| 10 |
 KCk |
6-7 | 3-5 | KC wins the tiebreak over MIA on Conference Record (3-5 vs 3-6). |
| 11 |
 MIAk |
6-7 | 3-6 | |
| 12 |
 CIN |
4-9 | 4-5 | |
| 13 |
 NYJke |
3-10 | 2-7 | NYJ wins the tiebreak over CLE on Head-to-Head. |
| 14 |
 CLEke |
3-10 | 2-7 | |
| 15 |
 LVke |
2-11 | 2-8 | LV wins the tiebreak over TEN on Head-to-Head. |
| 16 |
 TENke |
2-11 | 1-9 |
| NFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PHI |
8-5 | 2-2 | |
| 2 |
DAL |
6-6-1 | 3-1 | |
| 3 |
WASke |
3-10 | 1-1 | |
| 4 |
NYGke |
2-11 | 1-3 | |
| NFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
GB |
9-3-1 | 4-0 | |
| 2 |
CHI |
9-4 | 1-3 | |
| 3 |
DET |
8-5 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
MINk |
5-8 | 2-2 | |
| NFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
TB |
7-6 | 2-1 | TB wins the tiebreak over CAR on Common Games (5-4 vs 4-5). |
| 2 |
CAR |
7-6 | 2-1 | |
| 3 |
ATLke |
4-9 | 1-3 | |
| 4 |
NOke |
3-10 | 2-2 | |
| NFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
LAR |
10-3 | 3-1 | LAR wins the tiebreak over SEA on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 2 |
SEA |
10-3 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
SF |
9-4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 |
ARIke |
3-10 | 0-5 | |
| AFC | East | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
NE |
11-2 | 3-0 | |
| 2 |
BUF |
9-4 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
MIAk |
6-7 | 3-2 | |
| 4 |
NYJke |
3-10 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | North | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
PIT |
7-6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
BAL |
6-7 | 2-2 | |
| 3 |
CIN |
4-9 | 3-1 | |
| 4 |
CLEke |
3-10 | 0-4 | |
| AFC | South | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
JAX |
9-4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
HOU |
8-5 | 4-1 | HOU wins the tiebreak over IND on Head-to-Head (1-0). |
| 3 |
IND |
8-5 | 2-2 | |
| 4 |
TENke |
2-11 | 0-5 | |
| AFC | West | Record | Div. Rec. | Explanation |
| 1 |
DEN |
11-2 | 3-1 | |
| 2 |
LAC |
9-4 | 4-0 | |
| 3 |
KCk |
6-7 | 1-2 | |
| 4 |
LVke |
2-11 | 0-5 |
e Team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
k Team has been knocked out of division title contention.
NFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: NYG, WAS, NO, ARI, ATL, MIN, DAL
AFC Teams knocked out of 1 seed contention: TEN, LV, CLE, NYJ, CIN, MIA, KC, BAL
Clinching Scenarios Entering Week 15
NFC
|
LAR clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
LAR win |
AFC
|
NE clinches the AFC East division title with: |
| 1) |
NE win |
|
NE clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
NE win |
|
| OR | 2) |
NE tie +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
NE tie +
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 4) |
NE tie +
JAX loss |
| OR | 5) |
NE tie +
LAC loss |
| OR | 6) |
HOU loss +
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
HOU tie +
IND loss |
|
DEN clinches a playoff berth with: |
| 1) |
DEN win |
|
| OR | 2) |
DEN tie +
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 3) |
DEN tie +
HOU loss/tie |
| OR | 4) |
DEN tie +
LAC loss |
| OR | 5) |
DEN tie +
JAX loss |
| OR | 6) |
HOU loss +
IND loss/tie |
| OR | 7) |
HOU tie +
IND loss |
Elimination Scenarios Entering Week 15
NFC
|
MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
MIN loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
DET win/tie |
|
DET is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
DET loss |
|
PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
PHI loss +
LAR win +
SEA win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
PHI loss +
LAR win +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
| OR | 3) |
PHI loss +
LAR tie +
SEA win |
| OR | 4) |
PHI loss +
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
| OR | 5) |
PHI loss +
SEA win +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
The TB 1 seed elimination scenarios are still in progress
|
TB is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
TB loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
TB tie +
LAR win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
TB tie +
SEA win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
TB tie +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
TB tie +
GB win/tie |
| OR | 6) |
TB tie +
CHI win/tie |
| OR | 7) |
LAR win +
SEA win/tie |
| OR | 8) |
LAR tie +
SEA win |
|
CAR is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
CAR loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
CAR tie +
SEA win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
CAR tie +
LAR win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
CAR tie +
SF win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
CAR tie +
GB win |
| OR | 6) |
CAR tie +
GB tie +
CHI tie |
| OR | 7) |
CAR tie +
CHI win |
| OR | 8) |
LAR win +
SEA win/tie |
| OR | 9) |
LAR win +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
| OR | 10) |
LAR tie +
SEA win |
| OR | 11) |
LAR tie +
SEA tie +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
| OR | 12) |
SEA win +
SF win/tie +
GB win +
CHI win |
AFC
|
CIN is eliminated from AFC North title contention AND playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
CIN loss |
|
| OR | 2) |
CIN tie +
PIT win |
|
MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with: |
| 1) |
MIA loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
MIA loss +
BUF win/tie +
IND win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
MIA loss +
HOU win +
IND win |
| OR | 4) |
MIA tie +
BUF win +
JAX win/tie +
LAC win/tie +
HOU win +
IND win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
MIA tie +
BUF win +
JAX win/tie +
LAC win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND win |
The KC elimination scenarios are still in progress (estimated 15% analyzed)
| 1) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
JAX win/tie +
HOU win |
|
| OR | 2) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
JAX win/tie +
HOU tie +
IND tie |
| OR | 3) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
JAX win/tie +
IND win |
| OR | 4) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
IND win/tie |
| OR | 5) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win + 2.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR, CIN) |
| OR | 6) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
MIA loss/tie + 1.5 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
| OR | 7) |
KC loss +
BUF win/tie +
HOU win +
MIA tie +
BAL loss + 1 or more combined wins from (PHI, GB, CAR, SF, LAR) |
The portions in italics are for JAX clinching Strength of Victory over KC
|
BUF is knocked out of division title (and 1 seed) contention with: |
| 1) |
BUF loss |
|
PIT is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
PIT loss/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
DEN win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
NE win/tie |
| OR | 4) |
LAC win +
HOU loss/tie |
|
HOU is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
HOU loss +
DEN win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
HOU loss +
NE win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
HOU tie +
DEN win |
|
IND is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: |
| 1) |
IND loss +
DEN win/tie |
|
| OR | 2) |
IND loss +
NE win/tie |
| OR | 3) |
IND loss +
LAC win |
| OR | 4) |
IND tie +
DEN win |
| OR | 5) |
IND tie +
NE win |
Possible and Simulated Seeds Entering Week 15
We often say we’re in the business of possibilities, not probabilities. Because of that, in our simulations, we consider each team equally likely to win. However, we do make the odds of a tie only 1% in order to increase variance and cover more of the possibility space in limited simulations.
The table below is from 1 millions simulations using 49.5% home win, 49.5% away win, and 1% tie odds. This is not a prediction. It is an estimate of the percentage of possible scenarios that results in this seed (under our 1% tie criteria).
If an entry is blank, the team cannot get that seed. It’s also worth noting that due to rounding, the numbers for a team may not add up to exactly 100%.
NFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LAR |
33% | 15% | 1% | <1% | 23% | 14% | 9% | 6% |
|
GB |
16% | 39% | 3% | <1% | 7% | 13% | 15% | 7% |
|
PHI |
1% | 6% | 56% | 22% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 14% |
|
TB |
<1% | <1% | 13% | 42% | <1% | 44% | ||
|
SEA |
27% | 7% | <1% | <1% | 28% | 21% | 12% | 5% |
|
SF |
11% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 25% | 25% | 22% | 11% |
|
CHI |
11% | 20% | 1% | <1% | 11% | 15% | 18% | 22% |
|
DET |
2% | 6% | 2% | <1% | 6% | 11% | 21% | 53% |
|
CAR |
<1% | 1% | 17% | 27% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 54% |
|
DAL |
<1% | 7% | 8% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 84% | |
|
MIN |
<1% | >99% | ||||||
|
ATL |
100% | |||||||
|
ARI |
100% | |||||||
|
NO |
100% | |||||||
|
WAS |
100% | |||||||
|
NYG |
100% |
AFC
Results from 1 million simulations with home and away teams both 49.5% to win each game and 1% chance of a tie game
| 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DEN |
52% | 24% | 6% | <1% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
|
NE |
33% | 44% | 8% | <1% | 8% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
|
JAX |
5% | 13% | 37% | 3% | 7% | 12% | 15% | 9% |
|
PIT |
<1% | <1% | 4% | 65% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 30% |
|
LAC |
5% | 7% | 5% | <1% | 36% | 20% | 14% | 14% |
|
BUF |
3% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 24% | 31% | 19% | 11% |
|
HOU |
<1% | 2% | 22% | 1% | 8% | 15% | 24% | 28% |
|
IND |
<1% | 2% | 14% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 22% | 44% |
|
BAL |
<1% | 29% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 71% | ||
|
KC |
<1% | 1% | 3% | 97% | ||||
|
MIA |
<1% | <1% | 2% | 98% | ||||
|
CIN |
2% | 98% | ||||||
|
NYJ |
100% | |||||||
|
CLE |
100% | |||||||
|
LV |
100% | |||||||
|
TEN |
100% |
Seed Control Entering Week 15
The seed that a team controls is the worst seed that team could get if they win out. These are often mutually exclusive because it is impossible for teams that play each other in future weeks to both win out. If a team changed controlled seed from last week, last week’s seed is noted in parentheses.
Teams that control the 1 seed:
LAR(2)
SEA(2)
DEN
Teams that control the 2 seed:
GB
CHI(1)
NE
Teams that control the 3 seed:
PHI
JAX
Teams that control the 4 seed:
TB
CAR
PIT
BAL
Teams that control the 5 seed:
SF
LAC
Teams that control the 6 seed:
BUF
Teams that control the 7 seed:
DET(E)
HOU
IND(3)
Teams that could win out and still miss the playoffs:
DAL
MIN
MIA
CIN
KC
Teams that are already eliminated from playoff contention:
NYG
WAS
NO
ARI
ATL
TEN
LV
CLE
NYJ
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